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Dylan Cease 2019 Outlook

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15 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Here's a quick synopsis in one meme:

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you are beautiful, @StevieStats

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On 7/4/2019 at 6:54 PM, StevieStats said:

That comment i made was looking ahead to the game before the start, it wasn't bashing him.

But separately from that, for production this season, I'll take a pass. I certainly wouldn't let him stay in my lineup next game. But like I've said lots of potential but i view him as a longer term option and not a ready right now type of guy... I mean i could certainly be wrong, just my opinion on his 2019 prospects.

Fair enough.

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On 7/4/2019 at 11:17 PM, terminator10 said:

Loved what I saw, starting him with full confidence next start

 

Yea, but it won't count, because it's not against the 1927 Yankees. Basically, if he does well it's because his opponent stinks and if he struggles it's because he stinks./sarc

Dylan Cease is a terrific young talent. His first start was certainly a mixed bag, but one to be HIGHLY encouraged by, given that he really settled down after the first and showed an outstanding 2nd secondary offering (his fastball and curve are plus pitches, the change up looks that way as well). Then he gave up a wind aided homer in the 5th and instead of letting that rattle him, he settled down without any further trouble. He is young and just got the call to the Majors, there will be growing pains for sure, but the talent is obvious. 

 

 

Edited by kwolf68
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How long is the leash projected to be for Cease?  Obviously Chicago isn't in contention, so they can afford to be patient.  Barring absolute atrocious walk totals is Cease a safe bet to remain in the big league rotation the rest of the season?

 

Odd first two starts by the way.  First start featured four walks and few hits allowed.  The second start featured only one walk, but way too many hits allowed.  Completely different ways to fail.

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2 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

How long is the leash projected to be for Cease?  Obviously Chicago isn't in contention, so they can afford to be patient.  Barring absolute atrocious walk totals is Cease a safe bet to remain in the big league rotation the rest of the season?

 

Odd first two starts by the way.  First start featured four walks and few hits allowed.  The second start featured only one walk, but way too many hits allowed.  Completely different ways to fail.

I'm guessing they went with the throw everything over the plate -- center-cut or otherwise -- and see what happens approach to keep the walks from killing him. What I saw before I turned the game off bc it made my eyes sad was a few excuse me base hits and awful defense completely cratering any chance he had of having a decent start. He must have rebounded and threw fairly well after that garbage start to get to 6 IP. 7K/1BB is definitely encouraging.

I haven't read anything about an innings limit, but he's likely not going to get to a level where they would shut him down before season's end. He threw about 125 inefficient (lots of walks and Ks) innings last season and is only at 80 right now with maybe a dozen starts remaining. 

White Sox really love their lots of stuff/little control guys. Gio, Rodon, Reynaldo, Cease. Even Kopech profiled that way before he magically became allergic to walks last season. 

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10 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

How long is the leash projected to be for Cease?  Obviously Chicago isn't in contention, so they can afford to be patient.  Barring absolute atrocious walk totals is Cease a safe bet to remain in the big league rotation the rest of the season?

 

Odd first two starts by the way.  First start featured four walks and few hits allowed.  The second start featured only one walk, but way too many hits allowed.  Completely different ways to fail.

 

You had to see the defense to believe it. It was atrocious and it should have been a much better line. 

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Someone pointed out in his minor league thread that Cease will now have a major league defense behind him.  It was part of an effort to explain away his atrocious June numbers at Charlotte.

Sadly, my money would likely be on the Charlotte Knights If we’re talking about defensive prowess.  Adam Engel in center, Alcides Escobar at short, Goins at second, etc.  A bunch of guys who are/have become Triple A lifers & do all the little things well.

Edited by Tommy Lee Jones

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18 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Someone pointed out in his minor league thread that Cease will now have a major league defense behind him.  It was part of an effort to explain away his atrocious June numbers at Charlotte.

Sadly, my money would likely be on the Charlotte Knights If we’re talking about defensive prowess.  Adam Engel in center, Alcides Escobar at short, Goins at second, etc.  A bunch of guys who are/have become Triple A lifers & do all the little things well.

 

LOL really? Did you see his last start? It was one of the biggest cluster**** performances I've ever seen. There were 3 errors committed, then two hits that were badly played (one turned into an ITPHR by Merrifield). "His" error was really Abreau at first base, the pickoff throw was good I thought. I was so frustrated I cut the game off, then I find he just decided to start striking out people during the 5th and 6th inning. 

The Royals game he had much better fastball command than versus his first start, but his off-speed stuff was off. I'd like to see him have everything going to see what he can really do. 

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3 games in:

7/3 v Det: 5 IP, 101 Pitches, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 SO

7/16 @ KC: 6 IP, 108 Pitches, 4 ER (6 R), 8 H, 1 BB, 7 SO

7/21 @ TB: 5 IP, 99 Pitches, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 4 SO

Results: 6.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9.56 SO9, 5.06 BB9... 5.41 FIP, 4.94 xFIP, 4.99 SIERA, 10.1% SwStr... Contact: 40% Hard / 48% Medium / 11% Soft

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1 hour ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Yeah.  It’s getting tougher.

 

It shouldn’t be.

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On 7/20/2019 at 12:30 PM, kwolf68 said:

 

LOL really? Did you see his last start? It was one of the biggest cluster**** performances I've ever seen. There were 3 errors committed, then two hits that were badly played (one turned into an ITPHR by Merrifield). "His" error was really Abreau at first base, the pickoff throw was good I thought. I was so frustrated I cut the game off, then I find he just decided to start striking out people during the 5th and 6th inning. 

The Royals game he had much better fastball command than versus his first start, but his off-speed stuff was off. I'd like to see him have everything going to see what he can really do. 

 

Here's the deal:

- Cease has extraordinary stuff and is young 

- Cease has been unable, his entire minor league career, to go deep into games because he can't control ANY pitch coming out of his hand

If he's going to find any success on the major league level he's going to need to learn how to control at least his fastball and one off speed pitch to find himself in the back end of a bullpen (as the Cubs feared when he was in their system).  Certainly has time on his side to eventually figure out how to control his secondary pitches to eventually stick in a major league rotation.

Edited by IlliniGuy76
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On 7/4/2019 at 8:36 PM, bunnyzclan said:

Because players don't use minor leagues/spring training to work on specific things rather than getting the best line possible? You sound like those Ohtani haters last year after spring training calling him a bust way too early. But i mean MLB coaching staffs and data analysts clearly don't know as much as fantasy baseball managers. 

 

If you actually followed Cease too then youd acknowledge that he was obviously on adrenaline. His fast ball was faster than his minor league fast balls. For someone who follows him you sure are missing some important points.

 

I won't speak for Mr. Stats, however.....I think he actually did follow Cease and is telling you what your'e seeing on the major league level (it's just not what he's working on this year, we're talking his entire minor league career) is what his entire minor league career has been - unable to control ANY pitch coming out of his hand & can't go deep into games as a result.  Typically, that sort of player portfolio ends up in the bullpen unless they're able to figure it out.

Edited by IlliniGuy76

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9 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

I won't speak for Mr. Stats, however.....I think he actually did follow Cease and is telling you what your'e seeing on the major league level (it's just not what he's working on this year, we're talking his entire minor league career) is what his entire minor league career has been - unable to control ANY pitch coming out of his hand & can't go deep into games as a result.  Typically, that sort of player portfolio ends up in the bullpen unless they're able to figure it out.

The thing is, his control is awful to start the game, then he turns into Cy Young after getting lit up. It's very strange. Along with the 100mph heat he has the biggest dropping curveball of anyone in baseball -- hence the hype that probably won't stop for a long time. I saw him pitch a number of times  last year and his control was certainly good enough to get by with his stuff. This year he's taken a step back. Maybe it's the new ball, maybe he's crumbling mentally now that the pressure is on. I dunno. I've cut bait in redrafts but I still think there's no reason to worry about him going forward in dynasty. He profiles very similarly to Rodon, but with better stuff. That's a pretty solid pitcher.

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15 hours ago, sleepysock said:

The thing is, his control is awful to start the game, then he turns into Cy Young after getting lit up. It's very strange. Along with the 100mph heat he has the biggest dropping curveball of anyone in baseball -- hence the hype that probably won't stop for a long time. I saw him pitch a number of times  last year and his control was certainly good enough to get by with his stuff. This year he's taken a step back. Maybe it's the new ball, maybe he's crumbling mentally now that the pressure is on. I dunno. I've cut bait in redrafts but I still think there's no reason to worry about him going forward in dynasty. He profiles very similarly to Rodon, but with better stuff. That's a pretty solid pitcher.

 

That's 100% inaccurate.  At the major league level he has a 1.62 WHIP (note:  he looks nothing like Cy Young after the start of a game and shockingly the beginning of a game starts when evaluating players), at the minor league level ~1.25 WHIP (where you're facing traditionally much less effective hitters who chase balls out of the zone).  He averaged around 4.6 inning pitched/start in the minors.  He has the biggest dropping curveball of anyone in baseball?  Seriously?  What Kool-Aide are you drinking?  

Every single metric tells you that Cease needs to: 1)  Learn to control his fastball and if he wants to have any success at the major league level as a starter, he needs to control a secondary and third pitch 2)  Learn how to get much deeper into games as a result.

Can he?  Sure can!  Right now he's not remotely close.  The Cubs evaluated it the other way - they felt he was more likely to end up in the bullpen vs. starting.  

Edited by IlliniGuy76
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3 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

That's 100% inaccurate.  At the major league level he has a 1.62 WHIP (note:  he looks nothing like Cy Young after the start of a game and shockingly the beginning of a game starts when evaluating players), at the minor league level ~1.25 WHIP (where you're facing traditionally much less effective hitters who chase balls out of the zone).  He averaged around 4.6 inning pitched/start in the minors.  He has the biggest dropping curveball of anyone in baseball?  Seriously?  What Kool-Aide are you drinking?  

Every single metric tells you that Cease needs to: 1)  Learn to control his fastball and if he wants to have any success at the major league level as a starter, he needs to control a secondary and third pitch 2)  Learn how to get much deeper into games as a result.

Can he?  Sure can!  Right now he's not remotely close.  The Cubs evaluated it the other way - they felt he was more likely to end up in the bullpen vs. starting.  

Why don't you actually look up the stats before you knock my post and make yourself look like, well, someone whose opinion is worth ignoring and nothing else. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-movement?year=2019&team=&min=q&pitch_type=CUKC&hand=&x=diff_x_hidden&z=diff_z_hidden

Biggest dropping curve and not even close.

As far as the Cy Young comment. Let's take a look through his first 4 games:

Pitches 1-50 (44 PA), Cease gives up an OPS of 1.200 w/ a 7:9 K:BB

Pitches 51+ (53 PA), Cease gives up on OPS of .600 w/a 12:3 K:BB

So yeah, point stands -- he turns into a Cy Young caliber pitcher after the first couple innings.

One can argue why this occurs, but you can't argue that it doesn't. Every single game has been the same  thus far: Cease gets rocked early and can't find the strike zone, then settles down and looks like a front-line pitcher, hitting his spots and generating whiffs in a way he simply doesn't early on.

As far as his minor league stats go, throw them out. It's the International League. Offensive stats are inflated there more than the steroid era. Juiced ball + tiny fields. The number of pitchers with traditionally good numbers there this year is awfully small. His seemingly terrible 4.48 ERA was good for 8th at the time of his callup. If his control took a step back, it could be anything from a mechanical issue to not wanting to throw anywhere near the zone bc of the cheap hits that were growing on trees. He was also BABIP'd to death down there.

So if we're looking for "100% inaccuracy," you, my friend, are the one that gets to wear that badge. Have a nice day 👋

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11 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Why don't you actually look up the stats before you knock my post and make yourself look like, well, someone whose opinion is worth ignoring and nothing else. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-movement?year=2019&team=&min=q&pitch_type=CUKC&hand=&x=diff_x_hidden&z=diff_z_hidden

Biggest dropping curve and not even close.

As far as the Cy Young comment. Let's take a look through his first 4 games:

Pitches 1-50 (44 PA), Cease gives up an OPS of 1.200 w/ a 7:9 K:BB

Pitches 51+ (53 PA), Cease gives up on OPS of .600 w/a 12:3 K:BB

So yeah, point stands -- he turns into a Cy Young caliber pitcher after the first couple innings.

One can argue why this occurs, but you can't argue that it doesn't. Every single game has been the same  thus far: Cease gets rocked early and can't find the strike zone, then settles down and looks like a front-line pitcher, hitting his spots and generating whiffs in a way he simply doesn't early on.

As far as his minor league stats go, throw them out. It's the International League. Offensive stats are inflated there more than the steroid era. Juiced ball + tiny fields. The number of pitchers with traditionally good numbers there this year is awfully small. His seemingly terrible 4.48 ERA was good for 8th at the time of his callup. If his control took a step back, it could be anything from a mechanical issue to not wanting to throw anywhere near the zone bc of the cheap hits that were growing on trees. He was also BABIP'd to death down there.

So if we're looking for "100% inaccuracy," you, my friend, are the one that gets to wear that badge. Have a nice day 👋

 

I won't continue the back-and-forth here....

1)  He has a ballooned WHIP in the majors and an inflated one in the minors.  

2)  He's averaged less than 5 innings/start throughout his entire career.  Note:  That's not good.

3)  He's pitched in the minors in places outside of the International League.  I'm not entirely sure how that affects your inability to actually control pitches coming out of your hand throughout various leagues in the minors inclusive of the majors?  His control never took a step back - he's never been able to control his pitches.  

You simply can't argue the facts - he's been unable to control his pitches throughout the entirety of his career & he's simply been unable to go deep into games.  Both are straight up facts.  

Your own article you posted proves he doesn't have the "biggest dropping curveball" anyways...- that means... well... nothing... outside of the fact he can't control that pitch either.

Again... he has all the tools to be a successful major league pitcher.  He has to figure out a way to control not just one or two pitches, but seemingly he's been unable to figure out how to control any of his pitches throughout his entire career portfolio.  If he can't figure that out?  He's a bullpen guy.

 

Edited by IlliniGuy76
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3 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Why don't you actually look up the stats before you knock my post and make yourself look like, well, someone whose opinion is worth ignoring and nothing else.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-movement?year=2019&team=&min=q&pitch_type=CUKC&hand=&x=diff_x_hidden&z=diff_z_hidden

Biggest dropping curve and not even close.

As far as the Cy Young comment. Let's take a look through his first 4 games:

Pitches 1-50 (44 PA), Cease gives up an OPS of 1.200 w/ a 7:9 K:BB

Pitches 51+ (53 PA), Cease gives up on OPS of .600 w/a 12:3 K:BB

So yeah, point stands -- he turns into a Cy Young caliber pitcher after the first couple innings.

One can argue why this occurs, but you can't argue that it doesn't. Every single game has been the same  thus far: Cease gets rocked early and can't find the strike zone, then settles down and looks like a front-line pitcher, hitting his spots and generating whiffs in a way he simply doesn't early on.

As far as his minor league stats go, throw them out. It's the International League. Offensive stats are inflated there more than the steroid era. Juiced ball + tiny fields. The number of pitchers with traditionally good numbers there this year is awfully small. His seemingly terrible 4.48 ERA was good for 8th at the time of his callup. If his control took a step back, it could be anything from a mechanical issue to not wanting to throw anywhere near the zone bc of the cheap hits that were growing on trees. He was also BABIP'd to death down there.

 So if we're looking for "100% inaccuracy," you, my friend, are the one that gets to wear that badge. Have a nice day 👋

Defensive much?

First of all, it would be great if you posted statistics you actually understood. He doesn't have the biggest dropping curveball in baseball, read the description of how "vs. avg" works.

'One can argue why this occurs, but you can't argue that it doesn't. Every single game has been the same  thus far blah blah blah'
Of course you can argue that it doesn't. It has in a comically small sample size, but it's a pretty useless assertion to make, let alone an inarguable one. Very convenient that we can use 20 innings of baseball to draw ironclad conclusions, yet his minor league stats can be thrown out. Your first post was perfectly fine, then someone disagreed with you / took your hyperbole seriously and you responded with a bunch of nonsense.

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9 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Defensive much?

First of all, it would be great if you posted statistics you actually understood. He doesn't have the biggest dropping curveball in baseball, read the description of how "vs. avg" works.

'One can argue why this occurs, but you can't argue that it doesn't. Every single game has been the same  thus far blah blah blah'
Of course you can argue that it doesn't. It has in a comically small sample size, but it's a pretty useless assertion to make, let alone an inarguable one. Very convenient that we can use 20 innings of baseball to draw ironclad conclusions, yet his minor league stats can be thrown out. Your first post was perfectly fine, then someone disagreed with you / took your hyperbole seriously and you responded with a bunch of nonsense.

I know what vs avg means, thank you. There is little value in comparing an 80 mph curveball vs a 70 mph curveball wrt movement. They're different pitches. Perhaps in the future I will S-P-E-L-L things out like this is Sesame Street to avoid nitpickers and confusion.

As far as small sample sizes -- it's okay when others use them, but not when I do? Awesome. Harry Caray dude disputed my claim about Cease becoming a different pitcher as the game went on. He was as wrong as a human can possibly be. Why he and you are defensive about my clearing that up is ... interesting. That's the nicest word I can use there.

16 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

I won't continue the back-and-forth here....

1)  He has a ballooned WHIP in the majors and an inflated one in the minors.  

2)  He's averaged less than 5 innings/start throughout his entire career.  Note:  That's not good.

3)  He's pitched in the minors in places outside of the International League.  I'm not entirely sure how that affects your inability to actually control pitches coming out of your hand throughout various leagues in the minors inclusive of the majors?  His control never took a step back - he's never been able to control his pitches.  

You simply can't argue the facts - he's been unable to control his pitches throughout the entirety of his career & he's simply been unable to go deep into games.  Both are straight up facts.  

Your own article you posted proves he doesn't have the "biggest dropping curveball" anyways...- that means... well... nothing... outside of the fact he can't control that pitch either.

Again... he has all the tools to be a successful major league pitcher.  He has to figure out a way to control not just one or two pitches, but seemingly he's been unable to figure out how to control any of his pitches throughout his entire career portfolio.  If he can't figure that out?  He's a bullpen guy.

 

Do you even know why he's stuck around the 5ish Ip/start area? His workload has been ramped up cautiously due to the arm injury. Per year IP: 24, 44, 93, 123, 98 and counting. Not going deep is something done more by design than anything else. He's had outings this year where he was pulled after a high pitch first inning just for precautionary reasons. This has less to do with not being able to control his pitches, and more just babying him bc there's no reason not to before fully taking the shackles off once he hit the bigs. This also isn't the 1970s. Blake Snell won a CY throwing 5.something innings per start. The number of guys consistently pitching deep into games is pretty minuscule. Cease averaging 5.3 at the moment with all the noted struggles is not exactly a point in your favor. He won't continue to be this bad, so one can logically expect the IP/start number to increase from there.

His MiL BB/9 has been acceptable for the pitcher he is and comparable to plenty of similar pitchers who have had similar profiles. He's consistently been around 4BB/9 with a high K-rate. The picture you're painting is of a Steve Dalkowski when he's been more like a young Sale or Kershaw. Nice try, though!

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16 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

I know what vs avg means, thank you. There is little value in comparing an 80 mph curveball vs a 70 mph curveball wrt movement. They're different pitches. Perhaps in the future I will S-P-E-L-L things out like this is Sesame Street to avoid nitpickers and confusion.

As far as small sample sizes -- it's okay when others use them, but not when I do? Awesome. Harry Caray dude disputed my claim about Cease becoming a different pitcher as the game went on. He was as wrong as a human can possibly be. Why he and you are defensive about my clearing that up is ... interesting. That's the nicest word I can use there.

Do you even know why he's stuck around the 5ish Ip/start area? His workload has been ramped up cautiously due to the arm injury. Per year IP: 24, 44, 93, 123, 98 and counting. Not going deep is something done more by design than anything else. He's had outings this year where he was pulled after a high pitch first inning just for precautionary reasons. This has less to do with not being able to control his pitches, and more just babying him bc there's no reason not to before fully taking the shackles off once he hit the bigs. This also isn't the 1970s. Blake Snell won a CY throwing 5.something innings per start. The number of guys consistently pitching deep into games is pretty minuscule. Cease averaging 5.3 at the moment with all the noted struggles is not exactly a point in your favor. He won't continue to be this bad, so one can logically expect the IP/start number to increase from there.

His MiL BB/9 has been acceptable for the pitcher he is and comparable to plenty of similar pitchers who have had similar profiles. He's consistently been around 4BB/9 with a high K-rate. The picture you're painting is of a Steve Dalkowski when he's been more like a young Sale or Kershaw. Nice try, though!

 

Pal - Cease has pitched four games and you're using that sample size to somehow paint a narrative you believe is fact... hilarious!

I 100% know about the arm injury/TJ that occurred over five years ago.  If you think that has something to do with him being unable to still, to this day,  pitch deep into games... again, I can't help you with some common logic.  In fact, Theo/Jed/McLeod said last year that they needed Cease to pitch deeper into games (as they were... again... attempting to determine if they had a starting pitching asset or if he needed to be moved to the bullpen) - they weren't babysitting him. 

The fact that he's had a high WHIP throughout his career, unable to spot any pitch, unable to pitch deep into games because of it, painting a narrative of fact based on four major league starts and using an injury that occurred five years ago as the crutch... doesn't help anything you're attempting to spin.

Comparing him to Sale or Kershaw?  Good God......

I really am done here - I just had to respond after the latest yarns of falsity that were spun inclusive of the sophomoric "nice try, though!"

Edited by IlliniGuy76
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37 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

Pal - Cease has pitched four games and you're using that sample size to somehow paint a narrative you believe is fact... hilarious!

I 100% know about the arm injury/TJ that occurred over five years ago.  If you think that has something to do with him being unable to still, to this day,  pitch deep into games... again, I can't help you with some common logic.  In fact, Theo/Jed/McLeod said last year that they needed Cease to pitch deeper into games (as they were... again... attempting to determine if they had a starting pitching asset or if he needed to be moved to the bullpen) - they weren't babysitting him. 

The fact that he's had a high WHIP throughout his career, unable to spot any pitch, unable to pitch deep into games because of it, painting a narrative of fact based on four major league starts and using an injury that occurred five years ago as the crutch... doesn't help anything you're attempting to spin.

Comparing him to Sale or Kershaw?  Good God......

I really am done here - I just had to respond after the latest yarns of falsity that were spun inclusive of the sophomoric "nice try, though!"

Why bring up what Theo said when he hasn't pitched for the boys in blue for over 2 years? The White Sox are the ones babying him, last I checked. Unless you think taking a guy out after a 35 pitch first inning saying you don't want to stress his arm isn't babying?

Kershaw had an insane arsenal of pitches (like Cease), sported an unsightly walk rate (worse than Cease), struck out a lot of guys (not as many as Cease), averaged about 5IP per start until year 3 or 4...good god indeed, frosh.

Edited by sleepysock

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Cease has the stuff, and apparently when angry... can pitch like Mad Max. 

He's taking his lumps as expected, for the reasons expected. Watching the gamecast the other day, EVERY fastball was @ the top of the zone or higher. This in and of itself needs to change! You simply cannot make a living in that bandbox walking people and throwing high fastballs.

The instant bulldog Jekyl/Hyde thing needs to be harnessed... Moncada should walk to the bump and %itch slap him every inning if necessary, keep the kid angry, it's obvious what needs to happen here! 

Edited by LarryChip10

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