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Kawhi Leonard 2019-2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, justaguy said:

I disagree with this - I dont think the Clippers are good enough to make the playoffs if Kawhi takes 20+ games off. The West is stacked and most teams feel like they are playoff material - so the incentive to tank for many of them is minimal.

 

The Clippers are going to need Kawhi and PG to play as much possible to stay in the hunt. No chance they repeat anything close to what the Raptors did last year without him (17-5). 

Clippers made playoffs last year after trading their  (arguably) best player Harris to Sixers in February  for scraps and Shamet.

They lost  Gallinari and Shai  and added Kawhi, George, Harkles,  Green, McGruder. And they still have Beverly, Lou, Harrell, Shamet, Zubac

With Kawhi playing and George resting (or vice versa), Clippers are favorite to win against almost any team.

Clippers got better and added depth so they can release "load managment 2.0"

Jerry West knows what he is doing.

Now, we will agree to disagree

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The clippers are for sure good enough even if kawhi takes 20 games off.  50 wins will do it, even in the competitive west.  I bet they can go 50-12 with kawhi playing and that’s assuming they win 0 games when he sits...lol even the worst teams in the league win some games.  I think the clippers would be smart (and what I think they actually will do) is really limit what LouWill does when Kawhi/PG13 play.  But he will absolutely go off when they rest.  Not to mention Beverley, Harrell, et al. The reason why I like the clippers over the lakers (and the jazz and everyone else in the west) is because of their extraordinary depth.  This isn’t just the Kawhi/George show. I think the clippers are even deeper than the raptors and the raptors were deep af.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

 

Clippers made playoffs last year after trading their  (arguably) best player Harris to Sixers in February  for scraps and Shamet.

They lost  Gallinari and Shai  and added Kawhi, George, Harkles,  Green, McGruder. And they still have Beverly, Lou, Harrell, Shamet, Zubac

With Kawhi playing and George resting (or vice versa), Clippers are favorite to win against almost any team.

Clippers got better and added depth so they can release "load managment 2.0"

Jerry West knows what he is doing.

Now, we will agree to disagree

Lol, "agree to disagree " in this context simply means that you want the last word. 

I don't think Kawhi plays less than 65 games without an additional injury. And if he does, the Clippers will be a a 7/8 seed or not make the playoffs. I dont see a PG/Harrell/LouWill team beating GS, LAL, Utah, Denver, Portland, Houston

They will be in a dogfight against DAL, NOLA, Sacremento, SAS, Minny

They likely win against the Suns, OKC and Memphis.

We'll see how it plays out. The West is much better than last year - the Lakers, Jazz, Rockets (?), and Dallas all got a lot better. 

 

This improvement happened with many of last years playoff teams manag(Denver, Portland, SAS) staying roughly the same. GS is still solid, and Sacramento will be better this year. Minny has the talent to surprise people and bounce back. Its silly to compare the competitiveness of the West, top to bottom, this year to last year. 

Also, StifleTower your 50-12 projection extrapolates to a 66 win team over 82 games. I find that to be a huge reach. You really think the Clippers are that much better than the rest of the league? Their over/under is set at 55.5 games lol....second to Milwaukee. The Oddsmakers dont believe the Clippers are that much better than everyone else...even if assume they are factoring in some load management for Kawhi.

Edited by justaguy

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14 minutes ago, justaguy said:

Also, StifleTower your 50-12 projection extrapolates to a 66 win team over 82 games. I find that to be a huge reach. You really think the Clippers are that much better than the rest of the league? Their over/under is set at 55.5 games lol....second to Milwaukee. The Oddsmakers dont believe the Clippers are that much better than everyone else...even if assume they are factoring in some load management for Kawhi.

It would extrapolate to 66 wins if everyone was healthy.  If I could guarantee Kawhi/PG13 etc played 82 games then yes they could win 66 games.  They have the best two-way player in the game when he’s playing plus another top 10? player in George. Decent enough bigs, at least for the modern NBA.  A great defensive PG.  Also, don’t underestimate the power of a player like LouWill, Crawford, Jason Terry player off the bench.  Jason Terry and JJ Barea destroyed Miami in 2011.  The reason why their line is set that way is because it’s assumed that Kawhi will miss 20 games and PG13 will probably take load management games as well.  

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Number of games that Kawhi played each season since joining the league: 64, 58, 66, 64, 72, 74, 9, 60.

It is true that West is stacked. It's also true that lots of contenders see their chance this season to make a deep playoff run.  And they all watched Raptors winning the title with their best players resting a lot: Kawhi 60 games, Lowry 65. Gasol at 25 min a game after joining the Raptors. Contenders will do their own version of load management to keep their star players fresh for playoffs.  For true contenders playoff seeding is not crucial. Pseudo contenders (Denver,  Portland.. ), are different story.

And let's not forget that Clippers won 2 playoff games against GSW 😀

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Number of games that Kawhi played each season since joining the league: 64, 58, 66, 64, 72, 74, 9, 60.

It is true that West is stacked. It's also true that lots of contenders see their chance this season to make a deep playoff run.  And they all watched Raptors winning the title with their best players resting a lot: Kawhi 60 games, Lowry 65. Gasol at 25 min a game after joining the Raptors. Contenders will do their own version of load management to keep their star players fresh for playoffs.  For true contenders playoff seeding is not crucial. Pseudo contenders (Denver,  Portland.. ), are different story.

And let's not forget that Clippers won 2 playoff games against GSW 😀

 

I agree with all this.  And one of the reasons why the Clippers won two games is because of LouWill.  I think if you look just at the starting lineups then the Clippers are top 3.  The clippers starters can play any team to a stalemate but then how is anyone going to stop LouWill off the bench?  One of the reasons why I’m putting the Clippers over muh Jazz is that maybe the Jazz defense can contain their offense and maybe (wishful thinking) Conley/Mitchell can keep up with them in scoring.  But what are they going to do when LouWill lights up their second unit for 20 ppg?  No one has an answer for that.  

Edited by StifleTower2

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On 7/26/2019 at 3:12 PM, StifleTower2 said:

I agree with all this.  And one of the reasons why the Clippers won two games is because of LouWill.  I think if you look just at the starting lineups then the Clippers are top 3.  The clippers starters can play any team to a stalemate but then how is anyone going to stop LouWill off the bench?  One of the reasons why I’m putting the Clippers over muh Jazz is that maybe the Jazz defense can contain their offense and maybe (wishful thinking) Conley/Mitchell can keep up with them in scoring.  But what are they going to do when LouWill lights up their second unit for 20 ppg?  No one has an answer for that.  

Someone finally giving Lou the respect he deserves. He's an offensive star, up with the best. He's just a huge defensive liability so his bench spot is going to be crucial for this team. Especially if Harrell is there with him as the 2 make a great team. Not sure if it will be zubac or Harrell starting at C. 

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4 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Someone finally giving Lou the respect he deserves. He's an offensive star, up with the best. He's just a huge defensive liability so his bench spot is going to be crucial for this team. Especially if Harrell is there with him as the 2 make a great team. Not sure if it will be zubac or Harrell starting at C. 

Yes, of course.  That's the thing about LouWill and Jason Terry/Barea from the 2011 Mavericks.  Sure he's a defensive liability.  But he can absolutely light up the opposing second unit for 20 ppg.  Your bench will NEVER outscore LouWill by himself.  You're guarantee to lose the battle of the second units, which means you need to find a way to outscore Kawhi/PG13.  And how the hell are you going to do that?!

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Posted (edited)
On 7/8/2019 at 12:23 PM, mbroo5880i said:

 

Actually, while I agree with your overall assessment of this trade, players are subject to tampering rules.  However the league has typically turned a blind eye into potential player tampering because 1.) it is difficult and expensive to enforce and 2.) half the league stars would be subject to tampering charges. I cannot think of an example where this has been enforced. Typically, the team the player is on is fined rather than the player.  Although, (maybe wink-wink), the league did send out a memo last season concerning LeBron's open recruiting efforts and subsequent statements.  However, the memo didn't mention him by name.

Where this may become a future issue is during the next CBA negotiations.  As it stands now, superstar players are becoming de facto general managers by using their status to completely change the course of a franchise and the direction of competition in the NBA overnight. One can't help but think this is not a positive trend for long-term viability of the league. However, as long as some semblance of competitive balances remains then the current system will probably not change.

Here is the language through which the NBA could impose sanctions against a player: Article 35 (Misconduct) of the Constitution and Article XIII (Circumvention) states that the NBA can penalize with suspension or a fine.

"The Commissioner shall have the power to suspend for a definite or indefinite period, or to impose a fine not exceeding $50,000, or inflict both such suspension and fine upon any Player who, in his opinion, (i) shall have made or caused to be made any statement having, or that was designed to have, an effect prejudicial or detrimental to the best interests of basketball or of the Association or of a Member."

It's funny because even though there is punishment, theres really absolutely no punishment at all. Nba teams wipe their asses with $50,000 bill's. Hell, PG could pay $50,000 per text message sent and not even blink. 

Same with players sitting by choice... there is zero punishment. I'm sorry but kawhi should have had to forfeit 100% of his annual contract money for when he sat all those games and only played 9. Same with AD and same with Jimmy butler etc. If you want to abandon a CONTRACT you should have to abandon the money agreed to on that same CONTRACT. What is the NBA run by femenists now? 

Fines should be minimum 1 million per infraction for NBA teams, 50k is a joke. 50k per technical foul is a realistic. 

Edited by johnval1362
Typos

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21 minutes ago, iowncrazyhair said:

Anyone else worried about load management? There are even less b2b this season right? Got him at pick 7...

Roto or H2H?

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1 hour ago, iowncrazyhair said:

Anyone else worried about load management? There are even less b2b this season right? Got him at pick 7...

Probably 9-13

the real question is do we take PG or kawhi first.

i wonder what the over/under for games played will be for kawhi and george

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22 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Probably 9-13

the real question is do we take PG or kawhi first.

i wonder what the over/under for games played will be for kawhi and george

I’d say 65 for Kawhi and 55 for PG13.  I’d never remotely consider PG13 over Kawhi.  Kawhi is better per game and isn’t missing the first month. 

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18 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Probably 9-13

the real question is do we take PG or kawhi first.

i wonder what the over/under for games played will be for kawhi and george

I'd say over under is near equal for Kawhi and PG, because PG might automatically miss the first month, then be rested. I think PG is being heavily over picked in relation to kawhi, and ends up missing more games than him. Over under for kawhi,  I would guess 60. Over under PG i would guess is 55. I do think Kawhi goes bonkers the first month or so while PG is out and will make a great trade piece when he puts up top 4 stats early season.

What is interesting this year is that seeding in the west really doesn't matter all that much. In the past, its "avoid golden state", and now its "make the top 8 and be healthy". LA, LA, Denver, Utah, Houston are all championship teams this year, but none of them are close to what GS was with Durant. Home court advantage is meh. Health is everything. Also both LA teams play on the same court, so home court advantage doesn't even exist for the predicted top 2 teams in the nba. Even less reason to care about having a good seed. 

Come fantasy playoff time, I predict neither PG or Kawhi will be on winning teams due to 2 game weeks and are both picks that should be made around 20 in h2h. 

Trading kawhi early will be a championship winning move with the right buyer. 

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On 7/26/2019 at 4:11 PM, justaguy said:

Lol, "agree to disagree " in this context simply means that you want the last word. 

I don't think Kawhi plays less than 65 games without an additional injury. And if he does, the Clippers will be a a 7/8 seed or not make the playoffs. I dont see a PG/Harrell/LouWill team beating GS, LAL, Utah, Denver, Portland, Houston

They will be in a dogfight against DAL, NOLA, Sacremento, SAS, Minny

They likely win against the Suns, OKC and Memphis.

We'll see how it plays out. The West is much better than last year - the Lakers, Jazz, Rockets (?), and Dallas all got a lot better. 

 

This improvement happened with many of last years playoff teams manag(Denver, Portland, SAS) staying roughly the same. GS is still solid, and Sacramento will be better this year. Minny has the talent to surprise people and bounce back. Its silly to compare the competitiveness of the West, top to bottom, this year to last year. 

Also, StifleTower your 50-12 projection extrapolates to a 66 win team over 82 games. I find that to be a huge reach. You really think the Clippers are that much better than the rest of the league? Their over/under is set at 55.5 games lol....second to Milwaukee. The Oddsmakers dont believe the Clippers are that much better than everyone else...even if assume they are factoring in some load management for Kawhi.

 

Those over/under odds are obv to do with resting as those same betting agencies have them as the favourites to win the championship.

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4 hours ago, iowncrazyhair said:

Dan Woike from LA Times just tweeted 

One takeaway from time with Doc Rivers/Lawrence Frank today - Kawhi Leonard’s “load management” will not be as strict as it was a season ago in Toronto.

If this is true and he misses most B2B, but few other games, he will come out around 65 games played, which isn’t egregious considering that many other stars will only play 5 or so more.  Considering he finished 6th in per game I’d seriously consider putting him in the Jokic/Lillard tier for roto, and head of the junk at the turn of the first.  In H2H it still depends.  LA has a decent playoff schedule and he might not miss many games for rest during the fantasy playoffs.  If so it doesn’t matter much that he missed 15 games throughout the season.  

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Just now, a-rob said:

65 games seems like a best case scenario. and for him to suit up 65 games, it means he also cannot suffer any sort of minor injury. Kawhi will forever be the branded as the guy who made load management famous, because many stars will get the same treatment this year and in the future. Load management will be known as the Kawhi treatment/management

Maybe.  But to play devil’s advocate, if everyone starts doing it then won’t it place Kawhi on even footing?

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12 minutes ago, a-rob said:

yeah true, but for other guys like Embiid who is top candidate to get this treatment, I see them sitting out back to back games, and not all of them. For Kawhi he is already expected to sit in one of all back to backs, and then some. And the tough part is, you never know when he will sit out a game until before game time. I owned him in 2 leagues last year 1 weekly H2H (i tried so hard to get rid of him no one wanted to trade a good player for him so got stuck with him), another in a daily H2H league where I can bench him if he is announced as out. But are you prepared to deal with the hassle of monitoring his status every game day? And what pissed me off the most is how many times I wasn't able to take him out of my line-up and watch someone from my bench who I could've started play well.

I’m not targeting him personally.  I try to only play auction and I would get him for the right price in roto but in H2H meh.   But if you have a metaphorical gun pointed to your head, as is the case in snake, I would pick him top 10.  

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On 7/8/2019 at 12:02 PM, Golden Spikes said:

dude I grew up in San Diego, I am 45 years old, my first game was in 1979, and I remember asking my dad how a guy could be named World B Free.  Michael Cage was my first favorite player, Danny Manning is my favorite player of all-time

 

as a 30 year Warrior fan it (we are out there ), I respect the hell out of this

(also Manning was mad under rated)

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In the 9cat league with 3p% instead of 3pm, who would you rather pair Leonard with? Lillard (if still available ofc. But hardly), Gobert, Jimmy Butler? 

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On 9/5/2019 at 4:29 PM, StifleTower2 said:

I’d say 65 for Kawhi and 55 for PG13.  I’d never remotely consider PG13 over Kawhi.  Kawhi is better per game and isn’t missing the first month. 

i had the unlucky blessing of picking up both for 11th pick lol

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Can't decide whether i should take Kawhi in the 2nd round or not.

1st round will be Joker.

 

other options are:


Butler

PG13

Kyrie

westbrook

 

Any thoughts?

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14 hours ago, IcemanIL said:
 

Can't decide whether i should take Kawhi in the 2nd round or not.

1st round will be Joker.

 

other options are:


Butler

PG13

Kyrie

westbrook

 

Any thoughts?

Westbrook would be the worst choice for joker since jokers so good with an all around build vs a Westbrook punt. I'd take Paul George. I'd say go with butler but then you will be short on 3s already. All around builds are good to get to playoffs and have an easier time holding injured guys since they can still win %s and to's. I rarely go all around and never draft jokic because 6 or 7 very strong stats almost always wins in the playoffs against all around builds but you can get some big wins, an 8-1 or 7-2 here and there during the season with those all around builds on other teams off weeks or your on weeks. That will buy you time to hoard PG and then you will have 2 top 10 players who complement each other well. If end of season rest and injury were not a concern, I'd say take kyrie as he is very good compliment to joker but I'm not taking kyrie in any league unless it's for $35 or 3rd round. Roto, take kyrie. I see too many people saying oh take joker and then you can decide where to punt from there, but then you lose the value joker gets you from punting in the all around build. I never draft the joker and haven't seen him on any winning teams yet (40 leagues last year) because theres no way to increase his value by punting, it can only be decreased unless you're going for semi punts. You can immensely increase the value of harden or Westbrook by punting, jokic you cannot. 

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