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Deebo Samuel 2019 Outlook

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I will probably end up keeping Deebo as my keeper next season for a 14th round but no way do I have expectations of breaking WR2 territory on this team. Volume is not there. HOPE I AM WRONG!

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36 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Jimmy limits any Stardom Deebo could have.....

That is laughable. Patriots homers still trying to justify trading Jimmy G away.

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36 minutes ago, devaster said:

That is laughable. Patriots homers still trying to justify trading Jimmy G away.

Damn Right! ūüėÄ

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51 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Damn Right! ūüėÄ

At least you‚Äôre honest! ūüĎŹūüŹľ

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22 hours ago, devaster said:

That is laughable. Patriots homers still trying to justify trading Jimmy G away.

 

I'm actually upset Jimmy looked as bad as he did in the Superbowl and hope he improves. And the only justification needed for trading Jimmy came on February 3rd 2019.

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On 1/29/2020 at 6:24 AM, nmartinez12443 said:

Will be overdrafted. 

San Fran has too good of a defense and they run A TON.

Plus hes fighting with sanders and kittle for targets.

 

He should be hyped up. The numbers that he put up as a rookie are rare (this season as a whole produced multiple elite rookie WR seasons, which is very unusual). To put things in perspective, nobody argued with DJ Moore being hyped up coming into this season and Deebo had slightly better production than Moore had in his rookie season--it's certainly possible that he takes a major leap in his second season in the same way Moore did this season. Much like Moore, Deebo has pedigree on his side (he was taken 12 picks later than Moore was) and he has an easy path to being the WR1 on his team (Sanders may not even be there next season and even if he is it was clear at the end of the season that he had been unseated by Deebo). It is a near certainty that the Niners defense will regress from this season and that their running game will regress (it is unusual for teams to repeat as the top team in any facet of the game in back to back seasons), which will create more opportunity for Deebo. We also have to factor in the probable improvement of Jimmy G in his second full season as well as the improvements Deebo will make individually with a season under his belt and another full offseason to work on his game. If we isolate Deebo's numbers following the Niners week 6 bye, when his role was solidified, we have a 13 game sample size (including his 3 playoff performances). His fantasy numbers over these 13 games are 14.13 points per game which comes out to 226 points over 16 games (which isn't a stretch of an extrapolation since we are dealing with a 13 game sample). This would have put him just in front of DJ Chark as the 17th best fantasy receiver on the season. It is absolutely rational to view him as an elite WR2 with WR1 upside heading into the 2020 season.

Edited by paulwall29

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31 of 32 teams in pass attempts is all you need to know.

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

31 of 32 teams in pass attempts is all you need to know.

That is what I am saying. Why would they change their entire offensive philosophy when they just went to the super bowl in the most competitive division and conference. Defense and running. NO THANKS. 

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7 minutes ago, BMcP said:

31 of 32 teams in pass attempts is all you need to know.

 

I hope you're saying this to show that there is nowhere to go but up for passing attempts in this offense. As I showed in my post above, Deebo's numbers after the niners bye (including his 3 playoff games which gives us a 13 game sample) were good enough to put him as the 17th best receiver on the fantasy season. Imagine what will happen if the niners D and running game regress (which they almost certainly will b/c teams almost never repeat what the niners did in these facets in back to back seasons). If there is even slight regression in these areas it will increase Deebo's fantasy output.

Edited by paulwall29

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1 minute ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I hope you're saying this to show that there is nowhere to go but up for passing attempts in this offense. As I showed in my post above, Deebo's numbers after the niners bye (including his 3 playoff games which gives us a 13 game sample) were good enough to put him as the 17th best receiver on the fantasy season. Imagine what will happen if the niners D and running game regress (which they almost certainly will b/c teams almost never repeat what the niners did in these facets in back to back seasons). If there is even slight regression in these areas it will increase Deebo's fantasy output.

The problem is, unlike many rookie WRs, he is going to be hyped through the roof.  He will likely be too pricey for me in drafts.

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28 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The problem is, unlike many rookie WRs, he is going to be hyped through the roof.  He will likely be too pricey for me in drafts.

 

Rookie receivers that put up the numbers Deebo did this season should be hyped up. You will miss out on every rookie receiver from this past seasons class in 2020 with this attitude (AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Deebo, McLaurin, Hollywood, Darius Slayton, Preston Williams etc.). Here is a list of current receivers that put up similar or worse numbers to Deebo in their rookie seasons that you would have missed out on in their second year (all of whom took a second year leap) if you went into drafts with this attitude: Nuk Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Jarvis Landry, TY Hilton, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup etc. All of these players had comparable or worse numbers to Deebo in their rookie season. Players that flash in this way almost always make a leap in their second season. The attitude that you are taking towards Deebo is one that will absolutely lose you drafts. You should never go into drafts with a fixed mindset on not taking a talented player because they are "hyped." You are the guy that missed out on Chris Godwin this season.

Edited by paulwall29

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16 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Rookie receivers that put up the numbers Deebo did this season should be hyped up. You will miss out on every rookie receiver from this past seasons class in 2020 with this attitude (AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Deebo, McLaurin, Hollywood, Darius Slayton, Preston Williams etc.). Here is a list of current receivers that put up similar or worse numbers to Deebo in their rookie seasons that you would have missed out on in their second year (all of whom took a second year leap) if you went into drafts with this attitude: Nuk Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Jarvis Landry, TY Hilton, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup etc. All of these players had comparable or worse numbers to Deebo in their rookie season. Players that flash in this way almost always make a leap in their second season. The attitude that you are taking towards Deebo is one that will absolutely lose you drafts. You should never go into drafts with a fixed mindset on not taking a talented player because they are "hyped." You are the guy that missed out on Chris Godwin this season.

Let’s get back to this after the 2020 season.  There are kind of a few things wrong with your post.

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11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Let’s get back to this after the 2020 season.  There are kind of a few things wrong with your post.

 

I would absolutely love to. Also, it's pretty weak to say "there are kind of a few things wrong" with a post and then not add any supporting argument. But if you would rather wait a year to talk about this topic than so be it. 

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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

The problem is, unlike many rookie WRs, he is going to be hyped through the roof.  He will likely be too pricey for me in drafts.

I'm kind of hoping more people think like you so he can slide even more

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Risk #1 - From what I saw in the playoffs, Deebo hasn't learned how to play WR yet, so they use him as a gadget player.  That kind of player is never a big fantasy factor.

Risk #2 - Even if Deebo gets better at WR next year, they have some other guys with talent (Pettis, Bourne, Hurd).  Any one of those guys might figure it out as well.

Risk #3 - This team doesn't pass much and Jimmy G struggled from training camp to the Super Bowl.

 

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3 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I would absolutely love to. Also, it's pretty weak to say "there are kind of a few things wrong" with a post and then not add any supporting argument. But if you would rather wait a year to talk about this topic than so be it. 

Sorry for being out of it:  well done, Paul.

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On 2/6/2020 at 3:13 PM, paulwall29 said:

 

Rookie receivers that put up the numbers Deebo did this season should be hyped up. You will miss out on every rookie receiver from this past seasons class in 2020 with this attitude (AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Deebo, McLaurin, Hollywood, Darius Slayton, Preston Williams etc.). Here is a list of current receivers that put up similar or worse numbers to Deebo in their rookie seasons that you would have missed out on in their second year (all of whom took a second year leap) if you went into drafts with this attitude: Nuk Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Jarvis Landry, TY Hilton, Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup etc. All of these players had comparable or worse numbers to Deebo in their rookie season. Players that flash in this way almost always make a leap in their second season. The attitude that you are taking towards Deebo is one that will absolutely lose you drafts. You should never go into drafts with a fixed mindset on not taking a talented player because they are "hyped." You are the guy that missed out on Chris Godwin this season.

I’m not denying that it’s possible for Deebo to take a second-year leap: heck, I called him a solid WR2 for 2020.  I just demurred on labeling him a potential WR1 simply due to lack of volume, not talent.  I honestly hope I’m wrong - I love the kid and he helped me a lot this season. I also enjoyed keeping Godwin, so my money is next to my mouth.

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On 2/3/2020 at 5:46 PM, SyNdicateZ said:

Jimmy limits any Stardom Deebo could have.....

 

Stop it.

Deebo is not a great route runner, he's a YAC guy, and he would stand to benefit if the Niners brought in a speed guy to stretch the field and open things up underneath.  They actually really missed Marques Goodwin in that role this year.

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2 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Stop it.

Deebo is not a great route runner, he's a YAC guy, and he would stand to benefit if the Niners brought in a speed guy to stretch the field and open things up underneath.  They actually really missed Marques Goodwin in that role this year.

Samuel won accolades from scouts for his superior route-running skills.  And he continued to flash those skills as a rookie.  This is a strange criticism of his game.

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On 2/7/2020 at 7:22 PM, BMcP said:

I’m not denying that it’s possible for Deebo to take a second-year leap: heck, I called him a solid WR2 for 2020.  I just demurred on labeling him a potential WR1 simply due to lack of volume, not talent.  I honestly hope I’m wrong - I love the kid and he helped me a lot this season. I also enjoyed keeping Godwin, so my money is next to my mouth.

 

I don't think he WILL be a WR1 but it is silly to dismiss that from the realm of possibilities. There have been plenty of players that had similar rookie production to Deebo that have jumped into that territory in year 2. Although it was his 3rd year, Godwin had a similar year 2 to what Deebo did this season and made the leap the following season. Now, I obviously don't expect that Deebo will put up the numbers that Godwin did this season, but most didn't think that was possible for Godwin (they expected elite WR2 numbers at best). It's just silly to rule out a high ceiling for a talent like Deebo. Once again, the Niners will not be the same team they were this year, next year (that just doesn't happen in the NFL). It is unlikely they will run the ball as much as they did last year. Arik Armstead, Jimmy Ward, Emmanuel Sanders are all UFA's and it is unlikely the team brings back both Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman. Add to the fact that they have to consider the future contracts of George Kittle and DeForest Buckner and it is pretty much a given that there will be some cap casualties. Emmanuel Sanders is the best bet to be the first one gone, as he is an injury prone, aging WR. His only chance of returning is if he takes an extremely team friendly deal. There is a legitimate chance that Deebo is the true WR1 going into next season and with increased opportunity and a potential downtick in rushing attempts (Kyle Shanahan offenses had never had more than 421 rushing attempts and jumped to 498 last season) and team defense there is a range of outcomes for his production.

Edited by paulwall29
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6 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I don't think he WILL be a WR1 but it is silly to dismiss that from the realm of possibilities.

There have been plenty of players that had similar rookie production to Deebo that have jumped into that territory in year 2. Although it was his 3rd year, Godwin had a similar year 2 to what Deebo did this season and made the leap the following season. Now, I obviously don't expect that Deebo will put up the numbers that Godwin did this season, but most didn't think that was possible for Godwin (they expected elite WR2 numbers at best). It's just silly to rule out a high ceiling for a talent like Deebo. Once again, the Niners will not be the same team they were this year, next year (that just doesn't happen in the NFL). It is unlikely they will run the ball as much as they did last year. Arik Armstead, Jimmy Ward, Emmanuel Sanders are all UFA's and it is unlikely the team brings back both Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman. Add to the fact that they have to consider the future contracts of George Kittle and DeForest Buckner and it is pretty much a given that there will be some cap casualties. Emmanuel Sanders is the best bet to be the first one gone, as he is an injury prone, aging WR. His only chance of returning is if he takes an extremely team friendly deal. There is a legitimate chance that Deebo is the true WR1 going into next season and with increased opportunity and a potential downtick in rushing attempts (Kyle Shanahan offenses had never had more than 421 rushing attempts and jumped to 498 last season) and team defense there is a range of outcomes for his production.

 

It would be just as silly to dismiss the possibility that Hurd, Bourne, taylor and even Pettitis  won't emerge or breakout next season. You keep using Deebo's production over a few games as the rationale that he will be a stud next season. I prefer to focus on the opportunity  based on the offense. Wr's need volume in fantasy SF offense does not provide that volume, so extrapolate his numbers and talk about how if he played x number of games over a season and he will have a sophmore leap because 30 guys with his profile did so and he would have been a blah blah blah stud all you want; it still doesnt add up to opportunity based on predictable volume. 

Shanny has mentioned in interviews that he is unhappy about his wr rotation because he likes to keep¬†wr's fresh the entire game, injuries and guys not executing¬† has forced him to give deebo+samuels heavy reps. I love the enthusiasm that people have for Deebo but for fantasy purposes the offense as we have seen since shanny took over is not designed to give 1 wr heavy volume unless they happen to also play TE¬†ūü§£

 

Edited by dashoe

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With the added wrinkle of Shanahan’s tendency to juggle all of his WRs between all three spots throughout the game.  It makes deciphering defensive matchups much more difficult.

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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

It would be just as silly to dismiss the possibility that Hurd, Bourne, taylor and even Pettitis  won't emerge or breakout next season. You keep using Deebo's production over a few games as the rationale that he will be a stud next season. I prefer to focus on the opportunity  based on the offense. Wr's need volume in fantasy SF offense does not provide that volume, so extrapolate his numbers and talk about how if he played x number of games over a season and he will have a sophmore leap because 30 guys with his profile did so and he would have been a blah blah blah stud all you want; it still doesnt add up to opportunity based on predictable volume. 

Shanny has mentioned in interviews that he is unhappy about his wr rotation because he likes to keep¬†wr's fresh the entire game, injuries and guys not executing¬† has forced him to give deebo+samuels heavy reps. I love the enthusiasm that people have for Deebo but for fantasy purposes the offense as we have seen since shanny took over is not designed to give 1 wr heavy volume unless they happen to also play TE¬†ūü§£

 

 

LOL I was extrapolating from a 13 game sample (from after their bye in week 6 to the end of their playoff run) to a 16 game sample, dude. What are you talking about with "a few games"? As I said, extrapolating his 13 game sample in that stretch to 16 games would have put him as the number 17 receiver just in front of DJ Chark. If you don't think being a WR2 in fantasy is a good baseline, with the upside for more (for the aforementioned reasons), then you are just being stubborn. Also, please tell me you're joking about a Bourne, Taylor or Pettis "breakout"--and I don't think Hurd's first healthy season as a pro is the time to worry about a breakout for him. These guys are role players and are not a threat to Deebo's place atop the pecking order.

Edited by paulwall29

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I'll just leave these here.

 

SOURCE: Nick Wagoner on Twitter

Feb 5, 2020, 5:56 PM ET
 
  • 49ers WR Trent Taylor (foot, injured reserve) had to undergo three additional surgeries on his foot after coming down with an infection.

    Taylor had already had two operations before the infection. He is finally on the path to full health after undergoing his most recent operation on Jan. 2. Taylor will supposedly be ready for OTAs. Going on 26, Taylor is headed into the final year of his rookie contract. That's elderly for a player still on his initial NFL deal. Taylor won't be assured of making the 53-man roster next summer.

    SOURCE: NBC Sports Bay Area
    Jan 11, 2020, 6:44 PM ET
     

    Kendrick Bourne caught 2-of-4 targets for 42 yards in the 49ers' Super Bowl LIV loss to the Chiefs.

    Bourne was a valuable piece of depth for the NFC champion 49ers, posting a 30/358/5 line as injury and ineffectiveness made it difficult for coach Kyle Shanahan to sort out his receiver corps. Bourne did commit the occasional miscue, most notably in a horrid Week 10 performance. The 2017 UDFA will be a restricted free agent in March. He will likely be tendered a contract offer, but it is not a guarantee.

     

    49ers declared WR Dante Pettis, WR Jordan Matthews, QB C.J. Beathard, DL Kevin Givens, CB Dontae Johnson, LB Azeez Al-Shaair and TE Daniel Helm inactive for Super Bowl LIV against the Chiefs.

    A second-year second-rounder who finished his rookie year strong, Pettis was an offseason puff piece all star. He then began to draw the public ire of his coach in training camp, creating a difficult to navigate situation for fantasy drafters. Those who still took the WR2 plunge got stuck with a massive lemon. Pettis struggled not only for targets but snaps. Even with the 49ers’ receiver depth chart in constant flux, Pettis could not get in the game plan. A knee injury cost him time in December before giving way to healthy scratches. Speaking Super Bowl week, coach Kyle Shanahan claimed he expected bigger and better things out of 24-year-old Pettis in 2020. Believe it when you see it.

Edited by paulwall29
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