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Deebo Samuel 2019 Outlook

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I have to agree, none of those guys poses a credible threat to overtaking Samuel as the team’s primary in 2020.  Or ever for that matter.

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12 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

LOL I was extrapolating from a 13 game sample (from after their bye in week 6 to the end of their playoff run) to a 16 game sample, dude. What are you talking about with "a few games"? As I said, extrapolating his 13 game sample in that stretch to 16 games would have put him as the number 17 receiver just in front of DJ Chark. If you don't think being a WR2 in fantasy is a good baseline, with the upside for more (for the aforementioned reasons), then you are just being stubborn. Also, please tell me you're joking about a Bourne, Taylor or Pettis "breakout"--and I don't think Hurd's first healthy season as a pro is the time to worry about a breakout for him. These guys are role players and are not a threat to Deebo's place atop the pecking order.

 

I get you are a fan of Deebo but you keep missing the point. You don't need any of those other wr's to overtake or threaten Deebos place in the pecking order.

You just need enough of them playing well in the rotation to limit his target volume and make his week to week production volatile and unpredictable. 

Deebo is not the primary pass catcher on the Niners. . Kittle is the primary pass catcher. The offense since Sanny took over is built on run, run,run not pass, pass, pass. The Niner throw the ball when their defense fails to stop the other team and they have to play catch up.

Why do people expect Shanny to deviate from what he has shown us is his coaching philosophy the last 3yrs?

 

So you can wax on about his talent and 2nd yr wr breakouts from other teams and extrapolate the 2019 season into infinity but without enough targets he will be an unreliable fantasy asset ON THE NINERS. The only reliable fantasy asset on the Niners the last 2yr is the TE with +25% target share and now you expect the 2nd pass catching option on a low passing volume offense to be reliable too? 😂 

Deebo is at best a wr2 on a season long basis but i will expect him to perform more as a wr3 on a weekly basis.  Which means he can produce some goose eggs or have 2 catches and you get about  8pts ppr.

I love the season long extrapolation process people like to expound because it reinforces to me that In H2H fantasy you buy WEEKLY not season long volume. 😂

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33 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I have to agree, none of those guys poses a credible threat to overtaking Samuel as the team’s primary in 2020.  Or ever for that matter.

 

They don't need to overtake him, they just need to take targets away by executing in whatever rotation shanny has.  

Lockett was an early season wr1 in a low volume but efficient pass attack with one of the best QB's in the league and then he became completely unpredictable  wr2/3 in 2nd half of the season as other pass catchers in the rotation executed.

Kittles already commands +25% of the Niners target share, there is not alot left to go around. 

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

They don't need to overtake him, they just need to take targets away by executing in whatever rotation shanny has.  

Lockett was an early season wr1 in a low volume but efficient pass attack with one of the best QB's in the league and then he became completely unpredictable  wr2/3 in 2nd half of the season as other pass catchers in the rotation executed.

Kittles already commands +25% of the Niners target share, there is not alot left to go around. 

I was just responding to the question being debated directly above regarding other WRs “overtaking” Samuel as the new primary WR.  I don’t see that happening - and apparently you don’t either, unless I am missing something.

The Lockett comp doesn’t seem apposite - before being hospitalized with a serious injury and then contracting a bad case of the flu, he was pretty darn reliable on a weekly basis.  So much so that his second half stood out in stark contrast.

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12 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I'll just leave these here.

 

SOURCE: Nick Wagoner on Twitter

Feb 5, 2020, 5:56 PM ET
 
  • 49ers WR Trent Taylor (foot, injured reserve) had to undergo three additional surgeries on his foot after coming down with an infection.

    Taylor had already had two operations before the infection. He is finally on the path to full health after undergoing his most recent operation on Jan. 2. Taylor will supposedly be ready for OTAs. Going on 26, Taylor is headed into the final year of his rookie contract. That's elderly for a player still on his initial NFL deal. Taylor won't be assured of making the 53-man roster next summer.

    Jan 11, 2020, 6:44 PM ET
     

    Kendrick Bourne caught 2-of-4 targets for 42 yards in the 49ers' Super Bowl LIV loss to the Chiefs.

    Bourne was a valuable piece of depth for the NFC champion 49ers, posting a 30/358/5 line as injury and ineffectiveness made it difficult for coach Kyle Shanahan to sort out his receiver corps. Bourne did commit the occasional miscue, most notably in a horrid Week 10 performance. The 2017 UDFA will be a restricted free agent in March. He will likely be tendered a contract offer, but it is not a guarantee.

     

    49ers declared WR Dante Pettis, WR Jordan Matthews, QB C.J. Beathard, DL Kevin Givens, CB Dontae Johnson, LB Azeez Al-Shaair and TE Daniel Helm inactive for Super Bowl LIV against the Chiefs.

    A second-year second-rounder who finished his rookie year strong, Pettis was an offseason puff piece all star. He then began to draw the public ire of his coach in training camp, creating a difficult to navigate situation for fantasy drafters. Those who still took the WR2 plunge got stuck with a massive lemon. Pettis struggled not only for targets but snaps. Even with the 49ers’ receiver depth chart in constant flux, Pettis could not get in the game plan. A knee injury cost him time in December before giving way to healthy scratches. Speaking Super Bowl week, coach Kyle Shanahan claimed he expected bigger and better things out of 24-year-old Pettis in 2020. Believe it when you see it.

 

 

On a certain level reposting rotoworld blurbs as some sort of "proof" makes me giggle.

If i valued and analyzed players based on rotoworld blurbs. .  I would only autodraft and play in free leagues 🤣

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I was just responding to the question being debated directly above regarding other WRs “overtaking” Samuel as the new primary WR.  I don’t see that happening - and apparently you don’t either, unless I am missing something.

The Lockett comp doesn’t seem apposite - before being hospitalized with a serious injury and then contracting a bad case of the flu, he was pretty darn reliable on a weekly basis.  So much so that his second half stood out in stark contrast.

 

I drafted and owned Lockett but even before the injury his target share was getting reduced and his predictability more volatile as other guys were worked into the rotation(his efficiency with Wilson and the air yards was the saving factor). After the injury it just got worse.  The lack of volume in a run first offense as other pass catchers were worked into the rotation over the season makes the predictability of a wr even more voaltile, that was the point of the Locket comp. 

So think of Deebo on the Niners where he doesnt get the air yards and the volume with a lesser talented QB. . .in a low volume passing run first offense where he is currently the #2 option. 

I just dont see the hype. 

Edited by dashoe

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I would say the most likely route to Samuel’s anchoring his every-week floor will come via using him more as a rusher or on designed screens.  Sprinkle in a few receptions each week and you’d have a strong WR2.  He really doesn’t need to dominate in terms of Air Yards as he’s basically the best wideout in the league at breaking tackles.

Edited by BMcP

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16 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I would say the most likely route to Samuel’s anchoring his every-week floor will come via using him more as a rusher or on designed screens.  Sprinkle in a few receptions each week and you’d have a strong WR2.

 

I agree with the "most likely" view as in that's what should be expected but i would argue that he needs to run more intermediate+deep routes and the air yards + occasional TD will significantly boost his fantasy production to double digit points on a weekly basis. He has the speed to take a 12-20yd pass the distance.  Heck even throw him a couple of deep balls a game. Defenses are so focused on the run or containing kittles he should be able to beat his coverage. 

Edited by dashoe

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I agree with the "most likely" view as in that's what should be expected but i would argue that he needs to run more intermediate+deep routes and the air yards + occasional TD will significantly boost his fantasy production to double digit points on a weekly basis. He has the speed to take a 12-20yd pass the distance.  Heck even throw him a couple of deep balls a game. Defenses are so focused on the run or containing kittles he should be able to beat his coverage. 

Ideally they would expand his role in both respects - there really isn’t any reason not to: Jimmy G essentially led the entire league in deep-ball completion rate this past season, so he’s plenty capable of getting the ball to Samuel downfield.

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JimmyG is a dink and dunker ala Brady. Samuel was made by god to be that dink and dunk reciever ala Edelman.

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1 hour ago, SyNdicateZ said:

JimmyG is a dink and dunker ala Brady. Samuel was made by god to be that dink and dunk reciever ala Edelman.

Heard it here first, folks!  Garoppolo is the new Brady, and Samuel the new Edelman.

Edited by BMcP

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35 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Heard it here first, folks!  Garoppolo is the new Brady, and Samuel the new Edelman.

Nope. just play style. JimmyG has 0 clutch rating.

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10 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Nope. just play style. JimmyG has 0 clutch rating.

Somewhere, Fitzmagic laughed at this post.

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Somewhere, Fitzmagic laughed at this post.

I dont think he is on these boards

Edited by SyNdicateZ

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Just now, SyNdicateZ said:

I dont tnink he is on these boards

Fell right into his trap, didn’t you?

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Fell right into his trap, didn’t you?

I dont get why Fitzy is laughing at the post. trying to figure that out..

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28 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I dont get why Fitzy is laughing at the post. trying to figure that out..

It’s ok to keep trying.

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9 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I get you are a fan of Deebo but you keep missing the point. You don't need any of those other wr's to overtake or threaten Deebos place in the pecking order.

You just need enough of them playing well in the rotation to limit his target volume and make his week to week production volatile and unpredictable. 

Deebo is not the primary pass catcher on the Niners. . Kittle is the primary pass catcher. The offense since Sanny took over is built on run, run,run not pass, pass, pass. The Niner throw the ball when their defense fails to stop the other team and they have to play catch up.

Why do people expect Shanny to deviate from what he has shown us is his coaching philosophy the last 3yrs?

 

So you can wax on about his talent and 2nd yr wr breakouts from other teams and extrapolate the 2019 season into infinity but without enough targets he will be an unreliable fantasy asset ON THE NINERS. The only reliable fantasy asset on the Niners the last 2yr is the TE with +25% target share and now you expect the 2nd pass catching option on a low passing volume offense to be reliable too? 😂 

Deebo is at best a wr2 on a season long basis but i will expect him to perform more as a wr3 on a weekly basis.  Which means he can produce some goose eggs or have 2 catches and you get about  8pts ppr.

I love the season long extrapolation process people like to expound because it reinforces to me that In H2H fantasy you buy WEEKLY not season long volume. 😂

 

Lol, I think don't you get it. Not all of those receivers will be back. Shanahan offenses have finished lower than 12th in passing yards once since he began calling plays for the Falcons (with 2 top 5 and 1 top 8 performances). His offenses had never attempted more than 421 rushing attempts until this season where they spiked to 498 (it is highly unlikely this number is repeated in back to back seasons). Jimmy G just played his first full season as a pro, already finished QB 13 in fantasy, and will only get better (the same goes for Deebo). George Kittle being the top target is not as big of an issue as you are making it out to be. Just look at Terrell Owens, Dez Bryant, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Kennison, Derrick Alexander and Marques Colston, all of whom had WR2 or better seasons with elite tight ends.

Extrapolating from 13 to 16 games is a worthwhile exercise (this is not a stretch of an extrapolation) to gain an understanding of a baseline for Deebo. Also, you do realize that every WR outside of the top 12 has the floor you're speaking of, right? Considering he never put up a goose egg in his rookie season I don't anticipate that becoming an issue in his second season. Also, his air yards are 5.4 yp/trgt which is right in line with the elite receivers. What makes him special is he is also elite after the catch, 5.7 yards after catch which is way better than even many elite wideouts. Deebo is #goodatfootball and has the ability to have a high ceiling next year and has already shown that he will have a high floor. 

Edited by paulwall29

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Wonderful debate going on here - I’m finding myself siding with the Deebo side.

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49 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Lol, I think don't you get it. Not all of those receivers will be back. Shanahan offenses have finished lower than 12th in passing yards once since he began calling plays for the Falcons (with 2 top 5 and 1 top 8 performances). His offenses had never attempted more than 421 rushing attempts until this season where they spiked to 498 (it is highly unlikely this number is repeated in back to back seasons). Jimmy G just played his first full season as a pro, already finished QB 13 in fantasy, and will only get better (the same goes for Deebo). George Kittle being the top target is not as big of an issue as you are making it out to be. Just look at Terrell Owens, Dez Bryant, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Kennison, Derrick Alexander and Marques Colston, all of whom had WR2 or better seasons with elite tight ends.

Extrapolating from 13 to 16 games is a worthwhile exercise (this is not a stretch of an extrapolation) to gain an understanding of a baseline for Deebo. Also, you do realize that every WR outside of the top 12 has the floor you're speaking of, right? Considering he never put up a goose egg in his rookie season I don't anticipate that becoming an issue in his second season.

Also, his air yards are 5.4 yp/trgt which is right in line with the elite receivers. What makes him special is he is also elite after the catch, 5.7 yards after catch which is way better than even many elite wideouts. Deebo is #goodatfootball and has the ability to have a high ceiling next year and has already shown that he will have a high floor. 

 

Sorry dude but you keep throwing in a lot of useless misinformation that's simply not relevant to Deebos situation. Why are you naming wr's like Welker, Ownes, Dez, Colton etc? Who cares about what they did 😂

And why do I care about the entirety of Shanny's offensive career when I only need to look at his play calling and offense for the last 3yrs as the Niners HEAD COACH? What he did on the browns, hawks etc is irrelevant at this point. Thats the same as telling me Lebron James was benched on his HS basketball team because he missed a dunk as he accepts his NBA MVP award. 😂

STOP MAKING STUFF UP---You obviously don't understand the concept of air yards or you wouldnt make such a faulty  statement that his air yards are in line with ELITE wr's. it is not

Debos air yards was 4.2 PER TARGET->  Michael thomas was 6.4, godwin 6.4, Evans 7.8, Edelman 5.2 and for giggles Kittles is 4.5 for TE  and Kelce was 6.1.  . .   to round it out for you all you have to look at is the QB air yards to understand why Deebo has low air yards. The Niners don't air it out for long, only short and intermediate.

Jimmy G air yards per target is 3.8  

airyards per catch is 5.5   

air yards after catch is 6.6 which is #1 in the NFL. . . Deebo and Kittles are YAC monsters not depth monsters. . .  is this making sense to you? 😂

 

Clearly you have demonstrated to me that you don't understand the Niners passing attack and the only process you understand is extrapolating season long averages. 

 You are welcome for the free education 😂 

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Wonderful debate going on here - I’m finding myself siding with the Deebo side.

 

It is wonderfully lacking in useful facts from the other side. . all data but no information and no knowledge. typical fan comments but not useful for fantasy 🤣

Edited by dashoe

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42 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Sorry dude but you keep throwing in a lot of useless misinformation that's simply not relevant to Deebos situation. Why are you naming wr's like Welker, Ownes, Dez, Colton etc? Who cares about what they did 😂

And why do I care about the entirety of Shanny's offensive career when I only need to look at his play calling and offense for the last 3yrs as the Niners HEAD COACH? What he did on the browns, hawks etc is irrelevant at this point. Thats the same as telling me Lebron James was benched on his HS basketball team because he missed a dunk as he accepts his NBA MVP award. 😂

STOP MAKING STUFF UP---You obviously don't understand the concept of air yards or you wouldnt make such a faulty  statement that his air yards are in line with ELITE wr's. it is not

Debos air yards was 4.2 PER TARGET->  Michael thomas was 6.4, godwin 6.4, Evans 7.8, Edelman 5.2 and for giggles Kittles is 4.5 for TE  and Kelce was 6.1.  . .   to round it out for you all you have to look at is the QB air yards to understand why Deebo has low air yards. The Niners don't air it out for long, only short and intermediate.

Jimmy G air yards per target is 3.8  

airyards per catch is 5.5   

air yards after catch is 6.6 which is #1 in the NFL. . . Deebo and Kittles are YAC monsters not depth monsters. . .  is this making sense to you? 😂

 

Clearly you have demonstrated to me that you don't understand the Niners passing attack and the only process you understand is extrapolating season long averages. 

 You are welcome for the free education 😂 

 

I admit that I got the air yards per catch wrong (I thought I read 5.4 on playerprofiler.com, my mistake) wbut that doesn't refute the entirety of my argument by any means. You are pouncing on one mistake and being absurd if you say that everything I'm saying is misinformation. Sounds like you're taking this personal. The reason I bring up those other names is to try and beat you over the head with the point that a wide receiver can have elite WR2 or better production while playing with an elite tight end (you keep bringing up that he's playing with George Kittle). The niners have finished 9th and 13th in 2/3 of Shanahan's tenure as head coach for the 49ers, so I definitely understand his approach. He wants to make it a balanced attack. This still doesn't mean that Deebo can't put up numbers. And his play calling as whole is very relevant. His Atlanta teams were balanced as well but he could air out because of Matt Ryan. If Jimmy G takes a step forward next season they are definitely going to let him air it out more and he was already 13th in passing yards. There is passing upside in this offense. 

Edited by paulwall29

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16 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I admit that I got the air yards per catch wrong (I thought I read 5.4 on playerprofiler.com, my mistake) wbut that doesn't refute the entirety of my argument by any means. You are pouncing on one mistake and being absurd if you say that everything I'm saying is misinformation. Sounds like you're taking this personal. The reason I bring up those other names is to try and beat you over the head with the point that a wide receiver can have elite WR2 or better production while playing with an elite tight end (you keep bringing up that he's playing with George Kittle). The niners have finished 9th and 13th in 2/3 of Shanahan's tenure as head coach for the 49ers, so I definitely understand his approach. He wants to make it a balanced attack. This still doesn't mean that Deebo can't put up numbers. And his play calling as whole is very relevant. His Atlanta teams were balanced as well but he could air out because of Matt Ryan. If Jimmy G takes a step forward next season they are definitely going to let him air it out more and he was already 13th in passing yards. There is passing upside in this offense. 

 

Also, not to be mean but the the fact that you have 4 emojis laughing at your own jokes is just, well....

 

Your LeBron James analogy makes no sense.

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26 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Also, not to be mean but the the fact that you have 4 emojis laughing at your own jokes is just, well....

 

Your LeBron James analogy makes no sense.

 

I like excessive emoji use, don't let it get to you.😉

That point of the analogy was to not make sense, citing every team shanny held a non HC position when you have 3yrs of recent data on his offense and schemes as a HC makes no sense to me. Same as naming a bunch of pass catching tandems on other teams not named the SF Niners 😂

 

 

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