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Deebo Samuel 2019 Outlook

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On 2/13/2020 at 12:48 AM, youngrice said:

Keep up the good work.  Like always bring nothing to the table

 

as ususal you can't debate the facts and the posts but will always attack the poster. very predictable😂

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

as ususal you can't debate the facts and the posts but will always attack the poster. very predictable😂

What facts??  You have not brought up any facts but to say the offense doesn't support its WR's.  My facts are they have not had talent and the offense will support a WR(which was shown last 8 games this year) or when he had good wr's in ATL.  I also brought up the fact Shanny offense never supported a fantasy relevant TE before Kittle.  I'm still waiting on your lame excuse why thats not relevant.  

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23 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Edited by hockeyfan77
Point has already been addresed

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10 minutes ago, youngrice said:

What facts??  You have not brought up any facts but to say the offense doesn't support its WR's.  My facts are they have not had talent and the offense will support a WR(which was shown last 8 games this year) or when he had good wr's in ATL.  I also brought up the fact Shanny offense never supported a fantasy relevant TE before Kittle.  I'm still waiting on your lame excuse why thats not relevant.  

 

Exactly I stated facts and you attacked the poster and not the facts.  You just confirmed the point 😂

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7 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

You don't read very well/ I said your flaw is you extrapolate "production" and you then add in the flawed process of what  bad correlation to wr's have done on other teams and then sprinkle in what Shanny did as an OC(not as a HC but as an OC) on other teams when all you have to do is look at what shanny does as a HC on a team he controls 100% for the last 3yrs.  Then the best part is you attack my emoji use as if that has anything to do with fantasy football but obviously has everything to do with your "emotions" 😂

 

This is an incoherent mess and you clearly still don't understand the word extrapolation. Everything you are extrapolating is related to offensive production. I've cited Shanahan's numbers with the 49ers more than I have his numbers with any other team, yet you keep playing this sophomoric game of hyperbole (again he had never had an offense with more than 423 rushing attempts until last season when they spiked to 498, THIS INCLUDES HIS TIME WITH THE NINERS). Ironic that you would defend your use of emojis and say that my satirization of them has everything to do with my emotions when your use of emojis, in the first place, has everything to do with YOUR EMOTIONS (it's literally inherent to the use of them lol) and nothing to do with fantasy football (this is another case where dashoe is allowed to do something that no one else can)

You can have your emojis, you deserve them.

Laughy cry face, laughy cry face, laughy cry face

dashoe out!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by paulwall29
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On 2/16/2020 at 11:56 PM, paulwall29 said:

 

This is an incoherent mess and you clearly still don't understand the word extrapolation. Everything you are extrapolating is related to offensive production. I've cited Shanahan's numbers with the 49ers more than I have his numbers with any other team, yet you keep playing this sophomoric game of hyperbole (again he had never had an offense with more than 423 rushing attempts until last season when they spiked to 498, THIS INCLUDES HIS TIME WITH THE NINERS). Ironic that you would defend your use of emojis and say that my satirization of them has everything to do with my emotions when your use of emojis, in the first place, has everything to do with YOUR EMOTIONS (it's literally inherent to the use of them lol) and nothing to do with fantasy football (this is another case where dashoe is allowed to do something that no one else can)

You can have your emojis, you deserve them.

Laughy cry face, laughy cry face, laughy cry face

dashoe out!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Wow you are really emotionally charged and caught up in your feelings towards me given that 99.9% of your post was about me not the thread topic. Again you keep proving the point that you don't debate the topic you prefer to attack the poster because your argumentation is very weak and I have exposed it. The old attack the messenger and not the message tactic of a failed debate  🤣

You obviously don;t comprehend the difference between the meanings of OPPORTUNITY and PRODUCTION.

Touches/volume in an offense = OPPORTUNITY.   

yardage, scores and fantasy points = PRODUCTION.

I maintained that you should focus on the OPPORTUNITY in an offense which is highly predictable and consistent year to year. You have based your entire argument on extrapolating Deebos season long PRODUCTION which is  more volatile meaning unpredictable and even moreso when a player only has 1 season to extrapolate from.

Ironically your point about the rushing attempts going up every season as Shanny being a HC proves my point about how useless it is looking at his OC days at the browns and Falcons. Conversely  PASSING attempts have dropped dramatically  as Shanny has implemented his running game to the point where defenses had a difficult time stopping it.  2017- 607a,  2018- 532a,  2019- 478a. 

129 pass attempts have been removed from this offense as it has become more efficient which for fantasy purposes means less VOLUME or OPPORTUNITY for wr's.

So when you look at the TREND of a HC Shanny offense since year 1 you would have learned it is built on RUNNING the ball. Pass attempts increase when they can't run the ball effectively or the defense is failing. The TE is the primary pass catcher and the wr's get the rest of the market share.  The Niners philosophy, identity and personnel and playcalling are predicated on a strong running game and a strong defense. there is not much room for the offense to reliably support multiple fantasy pass catchers. 

I think it would be a faulty assumption to believe that Niners will not improve the production from the wr room in the offseason as it is the missing piece to his offense. So the faulty process that  you promote that all of the other wr's will be not involved or will suck is just a silly one.  The process that you use EXTROPLATING Deebos season long production  as a per game forecast for next season is a flawed one. The better process for fantasy is will he maintain or improve his target share of the offense next season.  Target share based on volume opportunity is what is relevant. The risk to Deebos volume and production on a weekly basis is other wr's consistently performing in the rotation. 

I have stated several times in this thread the different scenarios of how Deebo could become a fantasy wr1/2 but my view is based on his opportunity of volume and utilization, namely more targets and running deeper routes; not his production from last season. 

Why are you and the handful of guys who consistently like your recent posts to me so obsessed with my emoji use, which has nothing to do with the topic?  I am not bothered by your frequent use of multiple exclamation points  and  my writing my name in every post for dramatic effect. 😉

Emoji's are fun, you should try them 🤣

 

 

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On 2/22/2020 at 10:03 AM, dashoe said:

 

Wow you are really emotionally charged and caught up in your feelings towards me given that 99.9% of your post was about me not the thread topic. Again you keep proving the point that you don't debate the topic you prefer to attack the poster because your argumentation is very weak and I have exposed it. The old attack the messenger and not the message tactic of a failed debate  🤣

You obviously don;t comprehend the difference between the meanings of OPPORTUNITY and PRODUCTION.

Touches/volume in an offense = OPPORTUNITY.   

yardage, scores and fantasy points = PRODUCTION.

I maintained that you should focus on the OPPORTUNITY in an offense which is highly predictable and consistent year to year. You have based your entire argument on extrapolating Deebos season long PRODUCTION which is  more volatile meaning unpredictable and even moreso when a player only has 1 season to extrapolate from.

Ironically your point about the rushing attempts going up every season as Shanny being a HC proves my point about how useless it is looking at his OC days at the browns and Falcons. Conversely  PASSING attempts have dropped dramatically  as Shanny has implemented his running game to the point where defenses had a difficult time stopping it.  2017- 607a,  2018- 532a,  2019- 478a. 

129 pass attempts have been removed from this offense as it has become more efficient which for fantasy purposes means less VOLUME or OPPORTUNITY for wr's.

So when you look at the TREND of a HC Shanny offense since year 1 you would have learned it is built on RUNNING the ball. Pass attempts increase when they can't run the ball effectively or the defense is failing. The TE is the primary pass catcher and the wr's get the rest of the market share.  The Niners philosophy, identity and personnel and playcalling are predicated on a strong running game and a strong defense. there is not much room for the offense to reliably support multiple fantasy pass catchers. 

I think it would be a faulty assumption to believe that Niners will not improve the production from the wr room in the offseason as it is the missing piece to his offense. So the faulty process that  you promote that all of the other wr's will be not involved or will suck is just a silly one.  The process that you use EXTROPLATING Deebos season long production  as a per game forecast for next season is a flawed one. The better process for fantasy is will he maintain or improve his target share of the offense next season.  Target share based on volume opportunity is what is relevant. The risk to Deebos volume and production on a weekly basis is other wr's consistently performing in the rotation. 

I have stated several times in this thread the different scenarios of how Deebo could become a fantasy wr1/2 but my view is based on his opportunity of volume and utilization, namely more targets and running deeper routes; not his production from last season. 

Why are you and the handful of guys who consistently like your recent posts to me so obsessed with my emoji use, which has nothing to do with the topic?  I am not bothered by your frequent use of multiple exclamation points  and  my writing my name in every post for dramatic effect. 😉

Emoji's are fun, you should try them 🤣

 

 

 

Let's focus on volume, since that is what you care about. Deebo had 81 targets in his rookie season--it's a safe bet that is the lowest target total you will see for the rest of his career. Deebo had 14 rushes in his rookie season, he had 6, almost half his season total, in 3 games in the playoffs. Emmanuel Sanders will most likely be gone, opening up more opportunity for Deebo. Deebo was 12th in the league in red zone targets, as a rookie, and was tied for tops on his team with Kittle, but had an absurdly low conversion rate. There is plenty of room for positive TD regression, another indicator of room for growth in fantasy production. Now, let's return to your obsession with Kyle Shanahan's play calling staying exactly the same. I have at no point ignored his trend toward being a run first team and I'm still not denying that will be his approach moving forward. However, when you see a spike to the level of attempts that drastically deviates from a coaches statistical average throughout his career, that means it is more likely that there will be a decrease in attempts than an increase. I am not saying that the team's rushing attempts will regress back to 2017 levels, but any regression in rushing or team defense will lead to more passing attempts (and when you are tops in the league in both departments, again, there is nowhere to go but down). The Dallas Cowboys are a prime example of the inability of teams to control every variable to be able to implement their ideal offensive approach. There is no team in the league that has built its personnel and scheme around running the ball more than the Cowboys. In Dak Prescott's rookie season the team ran the ball 499 times (more than the 49ers this past season) and had 459 passing attempts; in 2017 their rushing attempts dipped to 480 and passing attempts increased to 490; in 2018 their rushing attempts dropped off a cliff to 439 and their passing attempts increased to 526; and in 2019 their rushing attempts held relatively static at 449 but their passing attempts spiked to 596. The point I'm making here is that, although the Cowboys never shifted from wanting to be a run first team, there were variables that changed from one season to the next, including their QB progressing as a passer, that led to their rushing attempts dipping and passing attempts increasing. I understand your concerns, and they are valid, but betting that a talent like Deebo will see the exact same target share, or a reduced one, as what he saw in his first season in the league is shortsighted, not a smart bet, and as you put it, a faulty process. It is silly to emphasize the possibility of another receiver on the team stepping up to significantly eat into Deebo's opportunity, over expressing all of the reasons why the most talented receiver on the team might see increased opportunity in his second season. You are making a faulty assumption that whatever shift the niners make to the receiver room is one that will significantly affect Deebo (this assumes that whoever they replace Sanders with will be better and more productive than him). They certainly don't have the money to spend on a top FA receiver, but if they do sign a talented receiver or spend a high draft pick on one, of course that will affect how I view Deebo going into next season, but it is absurd for me to build that into his value at this point and to assume that whatever changes they make will lead to a better receiver group than what they had this season.

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Deebo is going to get significantly more touches next year, he's that electric with the ball in his hands.  I'm sure the Super Bowl is just a sign of things to come when in terms of his involvement of his offense.  And believe me, EVERY team is looking to draft a Deebo Samuel this year.  Daniel Jeremiah said as much in his interview with Rome this week.  Deebo's name is being said everywhere by GM's.

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2 minutes ago, kdko said:

Deebo is going to get significantly more touches next year, he's that electric with the ball in his hands.  I'm sure the Super Bowl is just a sign of things to come when in terms of his involvement of his offense.  And believe me, EVERY team is looking to draft a Deebo Samuel this year.  Daniel Jeremiah said as much in his interview with Rome this week.  Deebo's name is being said everywhere by GM's.

Can you imagine if the Niners draft Shenault?!

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Can you imagine if the Niners draft Shenault?!

 

Shenault and Samuel on the 49ers would be absolute... Shananihans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okay, ill show myself out now

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