Pyschout

Pascal Siakam 2019-2020 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Alright let's make it a wager we can actually go through with:

You have to change your username to Spicey P's Death Sauce or Pascal Siakam: Basketball God (your choice) if he finishes in top 25 per game discounting guys that play less than half the season (or do you need the 30 game thing?).

I'll change mine to whatever you propose: ...

That’s much better and easier to enforce.

 

 I’ll say top 25 per game, discarding guys that play under 30 games.

 

The name change need not be permanent. Maybe just a week or month?

 

I’ll have to think of your name....

 

P.S.  Good luck!  Everyone loves a good sweat, even if one loses.  

 

Edited by StifleTower2

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

That’s much better and easier to enforce.

 

 I’ll say top 25 per game, discarding guys that play under 30 games.

 

The name change need not be permanent. Maybe just a week or month?

 

I’ll have to think of your name....

 

P.S.  Good luck!  Everyone loves a good sweat, even if one loses.  

 

 

Absolutely Permanent...come on now...let's get serious here. You should be honoured to be named after Siakam when this season closes out. As I said before, you will be named after a basketball Diety:

 

On 5/9/2019 at 12:55 PM, Jake the snake said:

Pascal Siakam actually becomes a demi-god and is anointed a deity in his native Cameroon.

 

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Just now, Jake the snake said:

 

Absolutely Permanent...come on now...let's get serious here. You should be honoured to be named after Siakam when this season closes out. As I said before, you will be named after a basketball Diety:

 

 

One season then...the wager was for a season, makes sense the gambool is also for one season.

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16 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Absolutely Permanent...come on now...let's get serious here. You should be honoured to be named after Siakam when this season closes out. As I said before, you will be named after a basketball Diety:

 

 

Well thanks for the debate @young_styler @Jake the snake 

 

At a minimum, it solidified my position about certain players, and made me question others.  You never do more research than when you're prepping for a debate.  I hope it ends up helping us all.

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Why do I have work meetings at wrong time :(

Anyway, if @StifleTower2 wins the bet I will voluntarily change my user name to whatever he wants.

Bet  is " Siakam in top 25  based on per game value"?

I pretty much agree with @young_styler about top 18 players he mentioned earlier.

After them, next group in my opinion is (no order): 

Siakam, Ayton, Porter,  Lauri, Turner, MitchRob and  Porzingis (assuming he is 100%).  

That would be my top 25  for next season. 

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16 hours ago, young_styler said:

I guess I need to see your guys top 25 because there's not even a clear cut top 20 imo. 

(Not in order)

 

1. Harden

2. Steph

3. Giannis 

4. Kat

5. AD 

6. Jokic

7. Lillard 

8. PG

9 Lebron 

10. Embiid

11. Beal

12. Butler 

13. Jrue

14. Gobert (if you're into punt ft) 

15. Vuc 

16. Drummond (if you're into punt ft)

17. Kyrie

18. Kawhi 

 

Then.

 

Kemba? Better team around him, less opportunity for stats

Booker? Injuries, lack of d stats, turnovers

Aldridge? 34 years old

Turner? Low ppg, average efficiency, inconsistent 

Conley? Same as kemba, injury potential 

Westbrook? Efficiency demolisher 

Capela? Punt ft, Westbrook effect?

And then after these guys it's anyone's guess. 

 

I'm just saying it's not like there are just 100% sure fire options better than Siakam. I'll gladly take him.

 

Ok.  One last blurb to explain my reasoning then I'll be done.  I basically agree with that top 18. 

 

One point of clarification: this is a debate about who actually finishes in the top 25 on a per game basis, 9 cat.  It's NOT a pick order.  Now if Pascal is in YOUR pick order as top 25, I can't disagree with that.  But it's not about pick order, it's where they actually finish.

 

For reference, I'm putting Pascal at around 18/8/4 with 1.2 threes, 1.1 steals, .6 blocks per game.  54 FG%/78%/2.2 TO.  That's the line I'll be comparing everyone else to.

 

I'm fairly sure Kemba and CP3 will finish top 25 on a per game basis.  I wouldn't draft Paul there as he will probably play 50 games, get shutdown, traded, whatever.  But the debate was top 25 on a per game basis.  Those two are 19-20.

 

Then I think there is going to be a run of bigs: 21. MitchRob (maybe), 22. Turner, 23. LMA, 24.  Capela, 25. Cousins, 26. Ayton  

 

21. MitchRob is a wildcard but I think he could finish above Pascal.

 

22. Turner.  I'm extremely confident Pascal cannot finish over Turner due to Turner's 2.7 bpg.  Turner is also young and improving, you can't say Pascal will improve then deny Turner's ability to do so.  16/8/2; 2.7 blocks, 1 steal, 1 three.  49/74 with 1.5 TO.  Pascal might score more points, get a couple more assists.  That's it.  But nothing he can really do can make up for a 2 block deficit.

 

23. LMA: Age is irrelevant in redraft as long as he plays a full season, which he has done consistently.  He's one of the most consistent players in the game.  Another 22/9/2.5 with 1.3 blocks and .6 steals.  The occasional three.  52/85/1.8.  Aldridge and Pascal profile similarly.  The different maker is I think Aldridge gets a smidge more points, rebounds, and blocks (scarce).  FG% is similar and Aldridge is a much better FT% shooter and will likely turn the ball over less, particularly if Pascal gets more usage.  Very little chance Pascal passes him next year.

 

24. Cousins is another wild card.  Don't want to get into too much detail, we all know what he can do, let's see if he can do it.  

 

25.  Capela: All the talk of Westbrook stealing his rebounds is overstated.  He might lose a rebound and a point but he still projects at 15/11 with 1.5 blocks.  Was first in FG% impact last year, 65% on 11 attempts.  Top 10 in rebounds, top 15 in blocks.  Is NOT a punt FT% guy.  Shot over 60% on under 4 attempts, those aren't enough attempts to require a punt.  1.4 TO.  Similar to Turner, if Capela gets a block more than Pascal I don't see how Siakam can catch him.  Siakam's best category is FG% and Capela is better in that cat, as well as being a much better rebounder, getting an extra block, and turning the ball over less.  Siakam's extra three and a couple assists in no way make up for Capela's strengths, which are more scarce. 

 

26. Ayton: Another young buck with just as much capacity for improvement as Pascal, if not more.  20/11/1/1 58 FG%/75 FT%/1.8  TO.  Again the problem with catching Ayton is that Pascal's strongest cat is FG% and Ayton is better in that category, in addition to getting more rebounds, more blocks, turning the ball over less.

 

Now there are a couple of players about his good as Pascal and it's a coin flip whether they edge him out.

 

27. Lauri: Projects to be as good or better than Pascal in almost every counting stat.  20/10/2 with 2.5 threes.  Similar stocks.  He has much better FT% at 87%.  The main difference is FG%.  If Lauri can get up to even 45% FG then he will be better than Pascal.

 

28. Otto:  Ranked 27th in Chicago last year, the two years prior: 20/22.  He can average 17/6/3 with 2.5 threes, 1.5 steals, .6 blocks.  FG impact is worse than Pascal, FT% impact is better.  It's close. It will all come down to TO. Otto has had years of under 1 TO.  If he can have another .6 TO year I think he's close enough to Pascal in the other cats, that TO will be a difference maker.

 

Now some pure shots in the dark.  Remember this isn't a pick order, it's a discussion of where players can finish in the rankings.  Even if these are unlikely they're players to consider.

 

Young guards who need only improve FG/TO to edge out Pascal: Mitchell and Booker.

 

Old guys who are potential rebound candidates: Conley, Horford, Gallo, Lowry, Westbrook, Bledsoe (without Brogdon), Dipo (assuming he plays over 30 games), and more likely Draymond.  Keep in mind I wouldn't actually pick these players here, but they all have a chance to be top 25.

 

Of these, I'd rank Draymond highest.

 

29. Draymond: From 14-17, without Durant, Draymond had three top 21 years.  Now they need him more than ever.  I can easily foresee him being 14/8/7 with 1.5 steals, 1.2 blocks, 1.3 threes.  Aside from points that's better than Pascal in every counting stat.  It will come down to efficiency.

 

Finally, Kristaps.  Remember this isn't pick order or totals.  It's purely per game basis.  If he plays 31 games of top 24 value, that counts.

 

I think Pascal will be somewhere in there.  Maybe he's better than some of those guys, but I don't think it's likely he will finish top 25.  The most likely finish for him is 26-30.

 

I can't reiterate enough, this isn't pick order.  It's a purely academic bet about where Pascal will finish on a per game basis in 9 cat.  I think people were ambitious with their projections.  When called out on it, instead of thinking about it, doubled down.  They're also not thinking about outlier events such as Draymond or some random person sneaking into the top 25.  It's unlikely but unlikely things happen every year/  It will be hilarious to me if Pascal finishes 26th bc someone like Otto was 25th who no one even considered.  Pascal ranking 26th isn't technically winning the bet, it IS winning it.

 

  

Edited by StifleTower2
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4 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

Between Pascal, Draymond, and Lauri, who would you prioritize in your drafts?

I'd likely go in the order you have it: Pascal > Draymond > Lauri.  But that's because when drafting you should generally focus on totals, not per game.  Draymond and Lauri could finish over Siakam in per game, but below him in totals.  

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8 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I know he’s a good young player who can improve.  That’s not what bothers me.  As I’ve said before, it’s throwing out the number top 25 without doing the work to justify that specific number. If you all had said he’s a good Youngblood and I expect improvement then I never would have posted.  

The big issue here is that most of the people you're arguing with are just Siakam fans, and they're making that the foremost issue, not their fantasy analysis.  It's like I said about him a few months ago:

These are the same people that thought other people were crazy for pointing out that OF COURSE he wasn't going to shoot 60% for the season.  They're not being rational about it at all.  It's like they seem to forget that this is a fantasy forum, not RealGM or /r/raptors or something.

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"Bold predictions" and actual player thread are two different things.

Of course that I will make  bold prediction that Pascal will have 60% FG. But I am not going to draft him assuming he will have 60%.

This is fantasy forum where we express our opinions and expectations about players. 

And we back our opinion with different arguments and assumptions.

If  my opinion  is that Pascal will be top 25 player and someone else  thinks he will be not  that is fine.

We have different opinions about player. That is OK.

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16 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

"Bold predictions" and actual player thread are two different things.

It was not in the bold prediction thread that you claimed that Siakam would shoot 60%.  No, that was the thread where you were called on out on being blatantly wrong.  Obviously wrong to anyone who knows anything about basketball, in fact.  You said- repeatedly- that he'd shoot 60% in the player thread last year.  On a fantasy forum. 

Everyone who said "nah" was repeatedly badgered and you even sarcastically flaunted it after it was obvious you were going to be wrong.  I told you that my takeaway from that was that you couldn't be trusted in the future to realistically assess players that you were a fan of.  You just said that you'd rather be a fan and aim for the stars or whatever, because that's fun. 

So my question now is are you being optimistic, because it's more fun to say crazy s--- that you hope becomes true, or are you being serious?  Frankly, you just can't be trusted.  You ****** that up last year with this same player, no one should really take you seriously about him. 

60%.

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I just find it funny people are actually short changing Siakam to 18 ppg next season. Toronto lost a guy who averaged 27 a game on 19 attempts and didnt replace him with anyone, so that makes Siakam the number 1 option. Clearly he will work all summer on preparing to be the number 1 option. Is it unreasonable to believe at least 5 of those 19 shots will go to him? If so thats at least another 4 points per game right there, and if you include his likely increase in free throw attempts (lets say 1 ft per game more), thats 5 more ppg next season. Theres absolutely no question he'll average 20 ppg next season, but likely more. 

 

It doesnt happen often, but if you look at other names of young players who were the 2nd option to a great scorer, and then the following year they became the unquestioned 1st option, you see a huge difference statistically. Tracy Mcgrady, Jerry Stackhouse, Stephon Marbury, Porzingis, and Harden come to mind. Mcgrady left Vince and went from 15 to 27 a game, Stack left Grant Hill and went from 15 to 23 a game, Marbury left Garnett and went from 17 to 22 a game, and yall know what Prozingis and Harden did already. I went far back because i honestly cant think of it happening too much recently because teams dont tend to let go of 1 of their 2 young superstars (Curry and Klay, Lillard And Mccollum, Wall and Beal). 

 

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4 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

So for Auction players, how much is the max on Siakam?

 

I mean if hes a 3rd round pick then max should be 33, but if you can get him under 30 then i would consider that a steal if you expect him to be a top 25 player. If you pay 33 then youre basically expecting him to be top 30 at the least. 

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48 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

"Bold predictions" and actual player thread are two different things.

Of course that I will make  bold prediction that Pascal will have 60% FG. But I am not going to draft him assuming he will have 60%.

I'm sorry, I just can't get over this lol.  Why are you acting like you said in the bold prediction thread that Siakam would shoot 60%, when anyone can go back and see you said that in the player thread, where people are supposed to be making serious assessments?  That you would pretend you didn't do that is wild as hell.  You should probably just recuse yourself from talking about the guy this year.

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Everyone, including myself, should be free to have and express their opinion.

You can agree or disagree with it. 

I curious what "serious assesment" is? One that you agree with it? 

 

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11 hours ago, Pyschout said:

The big issue here is that most of the people you're arguing with are just Siakam fans, and they're making that the foremost issue, not their fantasy analysis.    It's like they seem to forget that this is a fantasy forum, not RealGM or /r/raptors or something.

This is utter horse$hit. I'll ask you a question. Please tell me who is more qualified to comment on Pascal Siakam:
1. Someone that watches EVERY raptors game, who predicted his breakout last year (before the season), predicted him becoming MIP, predicted him getting a 3-pt shot (all of which has been written on these forums and quoted by others as proof of those predictions).
2. A fan from the USA or of another team that watches Pascal's box scores and may see him in all of 5 games in a year. 
?? Please make the successful argument for number 2.

You think I just randomly made these predictions on Siakam last year because I like him? I made them because I watched him play every game in the previous two seasons (I even went to a couple D-league games his rookie year, when he won D-league MVP in the finals - and I told my mates then after watching those games that he will breakout in the NBA - they said we'll see, but have since given props). They're based on watching his workouts with Rico Hines the previous summer, where guys like CP3, Durant, Paul George all lauded Siakam and even said watch out for this guy. I'm a Siakam fan because I know how good he is. Same reason I recommended for years about being careful expecting a JV breakout - he's limited (mostly mentally - doesn't have the reactions, IQ, awareness) - and I said he would never breakout on a competitive raptors team. Now with the Grizzlies who will suck, I think he'll have a killer year putting up empty 20-10 lines in losses on good efficiency, which is nice for fantasy - so go ahead and draft JV at will this year.

I have seen how rounded his game is and the flaws are really only due to a lack of reps, not fundamental flaws. Siakam has speed (literally one of the fastest players in the league in any position), stamina (I'll say the best motor in the NBA), athleticism (serious ups), soft touch, quick thinking, reactions, awareness, intelligence to make the right decision, smooth-fundamental jump shot (reps are all he needs for consistency), internal drive to be the best, external drive (first big contract opportunity at the end of the season) to succeed this year.

Believe what you want, but you look like a chump for calling people out for being nothing more than homers when people are giving objective advice on a player they know very well and has proven himself on the biggest stage in the NBA - He's an NBA champ. You can doubt his quality if you want. My advice based on knowing his game and his development curve is you're wrong and you'll be proven wrong, just like last year. It's not my fault USA fans don't watch raptors games (out of choice or opportunity due to them being regularly shunned by the US mainstream media) and then throw around advice and accusations like you're some knowledgeable expert. You're the only one not contributing to this forum. While I don't agree with @StifleTower2's assessments, at least he is making arguments using data and his own personal predictions and adding to the commentary in a constructive way.

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^ Two guys that argued with people who said that Siakam wasn't going to become the first player in basketball history to average two three attempts a game and shoot over 60%.

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32 minutes ago, Pyschout said:

^ Two guys that argued with people who said that Siakam wasn't going to become the first player in basketball history to average two three attempts a game and shoot over 60%.

Pascal finished with 55% shooting last season. So no...you're wrong:

On 11/20/2018 at 4:40 PM, Jake the snake said:

 

Talk about cherry picking Tommy...His 2nd game all season where he shot under 50%...
I said a few weeks back I'm tipping him for 55-60%, but I'll take you for over under on 60% on the season just for the fun of it and because Pascal is my boi!! ;)
 

And the fact that you are still going at @Gile Pile after dedicating at least 5-10 posts about his prediction of 60% from the field...hmmm...might be time to move on and actually contribute. 

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3 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

This is utter horse$hit. I'll ask you a question. Please tell me who is more qualified to comment on Pascal Siakam:
1. Someone that watches EVERY raptors game, who predicted his breakout last year (before the season), predicted him becoming MIP, predicted him getting a 3-pt shot (all of which has been written on these forums and quoted by others as proof of those predictions).
2. A fan from the USA or of another team that watches Pascal's box scores and may see him in all of 5 games in a year. 
?? Please make the successful argument for number 2.

You think I just randomly made these predictions on Siakam last year because I like him? I made them because I watched him play every game in the previous two seasons (I even went to a couple D-league games his rookie year, when he won D-league MVP in the finals - and I told my mates then after watching those games that he will breakout in the NBA - they said we'll see, but have since given props). They're based on watching his workouts with Rico Hines the previous summer, where guys like CP3, Durant, Paul George all lauded Siakam and even said watch out for this guy. I'm a Siakam fan because I know how good he is. Same reason I recommended for years about being careful expecting a JV breakout - he's limited (mostly mentally - doesn't have the reactions, IQ, awareness) - and I said he would never breakout on a competitive raptors team. Now with the Grizzlies who will suck, I think he'll have a killer year putting up empty 20-10 lines in losses on good efficiency, which is nice for fantasy - so go ahead and draft JV at will this year.

I have seen how rounded his game is and the flaws are really only due to a lack of reps, not fundamental flaws. Siakam has speed (literally one of the fastest players in the league in any position), stamina (I'll say the best motor in the NBA), athleticism (serious ups), soft touch, quick thinking, reactions, awareness, intelligence to make the right decision, smooth-fundamental jump shot (reps are all he needs for consistency), internal drive to be the best, external drive (first big contract opportunity at the end of the season) to succeed this year.

Believe what you want, but you look like a chump for calling people out for being nothing more than homers when people are giving objective advice on a player they know very well and has proven himself on the biggest stage in the NBA - He's an NBA champ. You can doubt his quality if you want. My advice based on knowing his game and his development curve is you're wrong and you'll be proven wrong, just like last year. It's not my fault USA fans don't watch raptors games (out of choice or opportunity due to them being regularly shunned by the US mainstream media) and then throw around advice and accusations like you're some knowledgeable expert. You're the only one not contributing to this forum. While I don't agree with @StifleTower2's assessments, at least he is making arguments using data and his own personal predictions and adding to the commentary in a constructive way.

This is why I’m afraid I may actually lose the bet.  You’ve been spot on re the raptors.  You did cause me to do a lot of work on Siakam and the top 25 before commenting.  My honest assessment is that you’re correct about Siakam but that you’re underestimating the other 25 or so players above him.  Maybe haven’t given as much thought about Ayton or Lauri or Turner.  So I do think it’s going to to be a sweat.  

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8 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

might be time to move on

That's kind of the point.  He and so many others were so outrageously wrong

- about what should've been common sense

- about this same exact player

That you can't really "move on".  We can't just pretend that you guys weren't off base last November and December and that suddenly now you're rational.  Again, look at that thread: two people said "No, of course he's not going to shoot over 60%" and a whole grip of people were constantly posting about how yeah he was and it was stupid to say he couldn't, calling him historic, etc. 

 

They were all wrong. 

 

 

Now some of those main people are back at it again.  It's important to not "move on", and instead remember what happened.

This is akin to saying we should "move on" from Westbrook's horrible FT% the last couple years.  No, it's an important consideration when we talk about him this year.  And taking the Siakastans' analysis with a huge grain of salt is an important consideration when we talk about Siakam this year.

Edited by Pyschout
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On 7/15/2019 at 11:56 PM, Pyschout said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Pyschout said:

That's kind of the point.  He and so many others were so outrageously wrong

- about what should've been common sense

- about this same exact player

That you can't really "move on".  We can't just pretend that you guys weren't off base last November and December and that suddenly now you're rational.  

I said múltiple times he would shoot between 55 and 60% (and have shown you that using quote of what I said) then I took a for fun bet with @Tom Chambers for over 60% because it meant nothing. You keep throwing me in with this whole "not qualified to comment" narrative you're peddling (that even with @Gile Pile I'm saying you've made you point LOUD AND CLEAR). At what point do you let it go? When you drive him (and me I guess since you keep lumping me in with the "over 60%ers") and the other "Siaskatans" out of Rotoworld forums?

Great analysis... Once again...

You don't believe siakam is top 25, to the point you think he'll be worse because his field goal % will decrease and he won't improve as a player overall to compensate. 

On 7/15/2019 at 11:56 PM, Pyschout said:

We can't just hand wave this away, can we?  "It'll be fine, he'll play better"?  That's it?

 

On 7/16/2019 at 12:32 AM, Pyschout said:

No, it wasn't, because he wasn't the first option then.

So basically everyone is just saying "He'll play better this season than last".  That's the argument.  I'll let another owner roll the dice on that one, but I'll be happy to take him at the mid 30s and beyond.

God forbid anyone on these forums draft a player simply because they think they might improve, what a insanely stupid strategy to try and win in fantasy. 

Sorry guys, I hereby withdraw all my comments and inputs in this thread on the basis of being falsely accused of claiming siakam will shoot over 60% from the field last year and now bow down to @Psychout's superior knowledge of siakam from watching every box score he's ever played in... This is also my forced Rotoworld retirement and hopefully @Gile Pile follows suit soon so you can stop being bombarded by how he and I (although with me it didn't happen) disgracefully claimed siakam would shoot >60% from the field on the season while taking over 2 threes per game, in one of the most heinous acts ever committed on these forums... I'm very sorry for something I never actually did. Goodbye all... And whatever you do don't draft siakam. 

Edited by Jake the snake
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I thought that having different opinions than others was encouraged  on this forum.
I also thought that being right  or wrong  about something/someone on this forum was acceptable
 But what do I know... Maybe it's just a Canadian thing.

 I give up and I am joining @Jake the snake in retirement from this forum.
 I will finish H2H summer draft and that is it.

 In the meantime, enjoy the wisdom from omnipotent, know-it-all @Pyschout  who is really good at criticising others while contributing very little to constructive, argument based discussion.

Maybe this will allow @Pyschout to move on

PS

I think @Pyschout should join the bet made earlier

Edited by Gile Pile
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5 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

I thought that having different opinions than others was encouraged  on this forum.
I also thought that being right  or wrong  about something/someone on this forum was acceptable
 But what do I know... Maybe it's just a Canadian thing.

 I give up and I am joining @Jake the snake in retirement from this forum.
 I will finish H2H summer draft and that is it.

 In the meantime, enjoy the wisdom from omnipotent, know-it-all @Pyschout  who is really good at criticising others while contributing very little to constructive, argument based discussion.

Maybe this will allow @Pyschout to move on

PS

I think @Pyschout should join the bet made earlier

Sucks to see you guys go.  

 

That was a fun bet between we three bc we get along, even if we disagree.  I never intended it to spin out of control.  

 

I don’t want a third party to join in.  If you want to make a separate bet, I can’t stop that.  But I don’t want us to be lumped together. 

 

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