Pyschout

Pascal Siakam 2019-2020 Outlook

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Yes, I was wrong about 60% fg. 

Again, I was wrong about 60% fg. 

One more time, I was wrong about 60% fg. 

Pyschout was right. I am sorry for not listening to him.

Now, can we move on?

 

  

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56 minutes ago, Pyschout said:

lmao which fantasy leagues do you play in where per 36 numbers count again?

It's funny, when you look at last year's Siakam thread, you're all over it upvoting people who say he's gonna shoot 60% and making confused faces at those saying he's not.

 

 

 

 

Are you still confused about it

 

 

 

lol

You missed the point. You said LeBron would run the offence less because of Lonzo Ball. But the numbers per 36 disagree. Meaning that in the minutes he played, he didn't run the offence any less, in fact he ran the offence more. You didn't say he would take a hit fantasy wise because of minutes. You said it was because LeBron would handle the ball less, which he didn't. Therefore you were wrong.

All the confused reactions were for guys like you who kept harping on the same point over and over again. It's time to move on because you were as wrong as anyone.

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23 hours ago, v1n5anity said:

You missed the point. You said LeBron would run the offence less because of Lonzo Ball. But the numbers per 36 disagree. Meaning that in the minutes he played, he didn't run the offence any less, in fact he ran the offence more. You didn't say he would take a hit fantasy wise because of minutes. You said it was because LeBron would handle the ball less, which he didn't. Therefore you were wrong.

All the confused reactions were for guys like you who kept harping on the same point over and over again. It's time to move on because you were as wrong as anyone.

lmao so I was wrong once.  Lik , literally one post.  How many times were you and Gile wrong abound Siakam?  Including reacts?  Tell me.  You were hilariously wrong.  For like...the entire winter.  And you double down.

So who can respect your fantasy analysis? 

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On 7/21/2019 at 2:44 AM, Mikhov said:

Can we please get back on topic? The “I told you so” narrative adds nothing useful to any discussion.

Everyone makes mistakes- so what? Life goes on. It’s more important that we learn from said mistakes and improve as F GMs, which is the point of this forum.

Anyone here now, is obviously preparing for their respective drafts, in the aftermath of the most impactful offseason to date.

ANYWAY, would you gents unanimously pick Siak over Ayton? They’re both young, can move the ball (Ayton has shown flashes), hit their fts better than most bigs, can score, aren’t reliable for stocks and excel at fg%. 

Given that Siak’s 3PM contributions (He wont likely be a 2 3PM guy this season) are less meaningful in this era. Who would you rather have and why?

I owned both of the guys in some periods last season (Siakam for the season and Ayton in November and December, i think). In Roto last season the answer was Siakam, for sure, because he produce in different cats and his FG% is high enough to erase the distance with Ayton in that really important cat for Ayton`s high value. In Roto this year Siakam wll go much higher in the draft, than i will be ready to pick him. In 9 cats he will be risky 3rd rounder, because his usage will be up, as the face of the future. The FG% deff. will go down, because he will try more and more shots outside the resticted area without Kawhi as the first option to open the lane and TOs will be high, too. On the other side ASTs will be up. I don`t play with TOs as cat, but the defensive stats are what scares me this season for him. Raptors last season were brilliant defensive system with Kawhi and Green, but both are out of the picture. The flame and the passion will not be the same and when the season begins as Siakam as the focal point of the offense, that will hit his desire to play in defense in some periods and that`s understandable. Maybe i am wrong, but i am not a big fan to own a guy after his breakout year, when i owned him than.

On the other side, Ayton`s problem last season was Kokoskov and i posted that multiple times in his thread. With Igor`s desire to play outside offense, Ayton hasn`t much chance to produce in fantasy what he could. With new coach and possibly more touches, Ayton can be offensive monster as C, which is tough postion to fill properly in the draft day. And we are back on the deffensive stats. I believe he can give this season 1.2 blocks (he has the length and the mins), in which scenario it will worth to spend early 3rd in 10 teamers on him.

If i can choose from these as best available players, today, i will go with Ayton in roto, and i am big Pascal`s fan. I think Siakam will have some normal struggles this season with his new role in Toronto and the expactions that will follow.

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But with Ayton likely to maintain his fg% and increase his usage (with Rubio around, Warren gone), rebounding and another year of development + Monty Williams, make him more appealing than Siak; Given that both got a hefty chunk of their value from fg%?

Its also possible that the Raptors system will utilize more ball movement. Their offense was designed for Kawhi (because they also wanted to him to re-sign) - would they just give Siakam the keys when they have a team full of willing passers who make the right play?

My point is Ayton may be a better pick than Pascal, as he is less likely to take a hit in fg% which was their shared best category. 

With Siak not contributing consistently in the way of stocks, i’m not sure hitting 20ppg (at the cost of fg%) and adding 1-2 assists make him, a safe third or early 4th pick - since he doesn’t help you lock up any counting stats.

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I've already written enough about where I think they will finish in the standings and I agree with a couple of the posters above.  Two more things I haven't mentioned yet are:

1) Ayton is C eligible.  I generally try to get either two pgs and one center or two centers and one point guard early in the draft.  Wings and PFs are more plentiful early.

2) Pascal might be better in roto, but in H2H specifically I would prefer players with more polarized value.  I'd prefer a player who is really strong in 4 cats, neutral or slightly weak in 3 cats, and very weak in two cats (Ayton) to someone who has only one big positive cat (FG) and the others hovering around the median.  The reason why is that if I need FG, Rebounds, Blocks then Ayton is a more powerful contributor in these categories.  Siakam's best cat is FG% but Ayton is stronger in that cat, so if I need the big man cats of FG%, Rebs, Blocks then I'd pick Ayton.  Conversely, if I needed little man stats I'd choose a point guard in that tier.  I'd only really consider Siakam as a glue guy in the fourth round after I'd set up my pgs/centers.  The reason why is that if I end up punting something then whatever value a player produced in that cat would be wasted.  If I picked Siakam and ended up punting assists then his 3 apg would be wasted.    

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3 hours ago, Mikhov said:

But with Ayton likely to maintain his fg% and increase his usage (with Rubio around, Warren gone), rebounding and another year of development + Monty Williams, make him more appealing than Siak; Given that both got a hefty chunk of their value from fg%?

Its also possible that the Raptors system will utilize more ball movement. Their offense was designed for Kawhi (because they also wanted to him to re-sign) - would they just give Siakam the keys when they have a team full of willing passers who make the right play?

My point is Ayton may be a better pick than Pascal, as he is less likely to take a hit in fg% which was their shared best category. 

With Siak not contributing consistently in the way of stocks, i’m not sure hitting 20ppg (at the cost of fg%) and adding 1-2 assists make him, a safe third or early 4th pick - since he doesn’t help you lock up any counting stats.

For better, we will see in the end of march, early april 2020. I prefer to call Ayton the safest pick, for now. So many people will reach for Siakam, so i expect even 2nd round. I am with you - today, I prefer Ayton, for sure.

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Id take ayton but neither in the 3rd round. I'd take whoever is left in the 4th, ayton before siakam for sure. Aytons ft% as a C seals the deal. Aytons also really inconsistent though. When Booker gets injured like always, they cant even get ayton the ball in the first place and the suns get demolished which doesn't even allow ayton to get touches or momentum. I'm not totally sure on this but from observing last year, aytons value is very tied to Booker being on the floor. Siakam is going to be heavily over drafted, I wont have him in any leagues this year and am totally fine with it just like the jamal Murray and lonzo ball fans who think those chumps are relevant (in relation to predicted value). Ayton will be over drafted as well. I'm going with tried and true this year. Besides Zion and maybe morant this draft class is a bust and really don't expect many surprises at all this year. That dude Shai Gig is gonna be good I'll be targeting him. 

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3 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

  I'd prefer a player who is really strong in 4 cats, neutral or slightly weak in 3 cats, and very weak in two cats (Ayton) to someone who has only one big positive cat (FG) and the others hovering around the median.  The reason why is that if I need FG, Rebounds, Blocks then Ayton is a more powerful contributor in these categories.  Siakam's best cat is FG% but Ayton is stronger in that cat, so if I need the big man cats of FG%, Rebs, Blocks then I'd pick Ayton.  Conversely, if I needed little man stats I'd choose a point guard in that tier.  I'd only really consider Siakam as a glue guy in the fourth round after I'd set up my pgs/centers.  The reason why is that if I end up punting something then whatever value a player produced in that cat would be wasted.  If I picked Siakam and ended up punting assists then his 3 apg would be wasted.     

This  could be  more of a draft strategy topic (maybe we should start a thread?), but I am  exactly the opposite. I prefer a player who  doesn't hurt you  much in any category.   With contribution  in (almost) every category, it  is so much easier to build a balanced team. If you  want to punt ,   you have more options to build advantage in some categories later in the draft.

Players like  Siakam, Tobias, Otto Porter, Bledsoe, Hayward, M. Gasol...   Strong in many cats, not hurting you much in any.

Get as many good glue guys early, and you can add specialists in later rounds

Numbers are  for H2H 9-cat standard leagues.

Looking at the BBM,  zero contributions (or as close to zero) per category are:
- PTS - 15.5  
- 3PT - 1.4  
- Reb - 6.1
- Ast - 3.4
- Stl - 1.0
- Blk - 0.7
- Fg% - 47.5%
- Ft% - 78.3
- TOs - 1.8

Those are the numbers that I am looking as a baseline when drafting. 

Back to Siakam or Ayton question,  I would take Siakam  before Ayton every time. 

Ayton's zero contribution in 3s  scares me in the early rounds. It "forces" you, to some extent"   to compensate for it later by drafting player who is strong in 3s but negative  in many others.

With glue guy types you already have strong foundation and you have more  options (punt or not,  chose categories to punt...) for your team build  in later round. 

For example, if I want to create advantage in 3s  I can get Redick, Ross, Ingless types in later rounds.  I already have contributors in 3s and adding specialist  or two gives me advantage (or at least I am competitive).  I can absorb their negatives  much easier as  I am already solid in many categories.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

This  could be  more of a draft strategy topic (maybe we should start a thread?), but I am  exactly the opposite. I prefer a player who  doesn't hurt you  much in any category.   With contribution  in (almost) every category, it  is so much easier to build a balanced team. If you  want to punt ,   you have more options to build advantage in some categories later in the draft.

Players like  Siakam, Tobias, Otto Porter, Bledsoe, Hayward, M. Gasol...   Strong in many cats, not hurting you much in any.

Get as many good glue guys early, and you can add specialists in later rounds

Numbers are  for H2H 9-cat standard leagues.

Looking at the BBM,  zero contributions (or as close to zero) per category are:
- PTS - 15.5  
- 3PT - 1.4  
- Reb - 6.1
- Ast - 3.4
- Stl - 1.0
- Blk - 0.7
- Fg% - 47.5%
- Ft% - 78.3
- TOs - 1.8

Those are the numbers that I am looking as a baseline when drafting. 

Back to Siakam or Ayton question,  I would take Siakam  before Ayton every time. 

Ayton's zero contribution in 3s  scares me in the early rounds. It "forces" you, to some extent"   to compensate for it later by drafting player who is strong in 3s but negative  in many others.

With glue guy types you already have strong foundation and you have more  options (punt or not,  chose categories to punt...) for your team build  in later round. 

For example, if I want to create advantage in 3s  I can get Redick, Ross, Ingless types in later rounds.  I already have contributors in 3s and adding specialist  or two gives me advantage (or at least I am competitive).  I can absorb their negatives  much easier as  I am already solid in many categories.

 

 

 

I buy that argument in roto and would prefer Siakam in roto.  H2H it's personal preference as there is more freedom in strategy.

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Let's throw in 2 more bigs in that range - Collins and Turner, into the Ayton/Siakam discussion.  Who of the 4 you got?  

 

People who like Ayton - do you think he adds the 3 ball this year?  

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Just now, hipriest69 said:

Let's throw in 2 more bigs in that range - Collins and Turner, into the Ayton/Siakam discussion.  Who of the 4 you got?  

 

People who like Ayton - do you think he adds the 3 ball this year?  

Turner by a long shot.  Particularly in roto.  I don’t punt points per se but I think they’re overvalued and often end in the bottom half in points.  Often your 10th guy is going to be someone you got for free off the wire or otherwise cheaply who scores in the teens and hits a couple threes, ie points and threes are cheap which is why I don’t mind Turners low points.  But I (and everyone is else) are always looking for stocks, particularly stocks that don’t hurt your efficiency.  Turner is the main man for that.  It blows my mind that people are talking about speculating on MitchRob in the second due to his potential for getting four stocks when Turner already does that and often isn’t drafted until the third.  Not to mention Turner has decent FT% and sometimes hits a three.  

 

Collins and Ayton are pretty comparable imo as they’re both projected to be efficient 20/10 bigs who don’t get too many stocks.  I’d prefer Ayton due to his abnormally large FG contribution and he seems the most able of Siakam, Collins, and himself to make the leap of getting more than 1.2 blocks.  

 

I might prefer Siakam over Collins though.  Siakam has more diverse skills and is likely to lead his team to the playoffs.  Collins is too likely to get shutdown imo.  

 

Turner > Ayton > Siakam > Collins

 

 

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5 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Turner by a long shot.  Particularly in roto.  I don’t punt points per se but I think they’re overvalued and often end in the bottom half in points.  Often your 10th guy is going to be someone you got for free off the wire or otherwise cheaply who scores in the teens and hits a couple threes, ie points and threes are cheap which is why I don’t mind Turners low points.  But I (and everyone is else) are always looking for stocks, particularly stocks that don’t hurt your efficiency.  Turner is the main man for that.  It blows my mind that people are talking about speculating on MitchRob in the second due to his potential for getting four stocks when Turner already does that and often isn’t drafted until the third.  Not to mention Turner has decent FT% and sometimes hits a three.  

 

Collins and Ayton are pretty comparable imo as they’re both projected to be efficient 20/10 bigs who don’t get too many stocks.  I’d prefer Ayton due to his abnormally large FG contribution and he seems the most able of Siakam, Collins, and himself to make the leap of getting more than 1.2 blocks.  

 

I might prefer Siakam over Collins though.  Siakam has more diverse skills and is likely to lead his team to the playoffs.  Collins is too likely to get shutdown imo.  

 

Turner > Ayton > Siakam > Collins

 

 

I might rank Collins ahead of siakam

I think an increase in Ft% and blocks this season will boost him to top 25  

Edited by Simsanityy179

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On 7/20/2019 at 10:39 PM, v1n5anity said:

All the confused reactions were for guys like you who kept harping on the same point over and over again. It's time to move on because you were as wrong as anyone.

What was I wrong about in that thread?

 

Bro, I'm the back to back FG% bet rotoworld champ, bow down.

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I think that in comparison of Ayton and Siakam threes are the less important because it is basically only category which you can easily find in late rounds. For this reason I also draft Ayton ahead of Siakam or for example Giannis ahead of Curry.

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On 7/22/2019 at 9:23 PM, StifleTower2 said:

 Turner > Ayton > Siakam > Collins

Real life plays a big factor into this discussion. A lot of this comes down to player potential. Who can break out? IMO the two with the biggest breakout potential for next year are Siakam and Collins. 

Siakam I have discussed a lot about his potential and how he isn't done getting better, hence why I think he'll end the season in the top 25 range on per game stats. He is the best real-life player of these four and it's not very close. His stocks slightly cap his ceiling, but they are not bad and he could get close to 2 stocks per game (although I expect about 1.7-1.8). His play-making is where he could make a real jump with the added opportunity this season and getting 4+ assist (which i predict) is a big boost. His line is beautifully rounded. And his floor is also high because he is now the face of the franchise and has proven himself on the biggest stage (he's a champ). That is why I think Siakam is such a solid pick because even if he doesn't reach his potential his floor is top 40-50...everyone here being pessimistic about Siakam is talking about what could happen if he doesn't pan out - if he only sees a small uptick in points and a drop in FG%. His floor numbers for me are about 18-7-3-0.8-0.6-2.5 and 1.4 threes on 48%/75% those are still really useful numbers and well rounded...and that's worst case scenario. My previous prediction

Quote

22ppg 8.2rbs 4.2ast 1.0stl 0.9blk 2.2TOs 50/37/79% and 1.5 threes

is definitely not his ceiling - he could go further than that if he really takes another big step in the offseason. He is the real deal.

Collins has a lot of potential. He could have a similar breakout to what Siakam did last year and that would give him really nice numbers and push him into top 30 discussion. The team they are building alongside him too is really nice to compliment his skills, but he needs to improve as a defender and his dribbling and ball control, but the tools are all there.

Turner is capped. IMO I think he is close to his peak. He isn't good off the dribble, limited in the post and doesn't have the vision to be a inside distributor. That caps his fantasy potential too. He is really useful in fantasy and is Prime-Ibaka-lite type player (less blocks). Pacers really like Sabonis because he is a more versatile player, but turner is the better defender. Turner (assuming no injuries) has a really high ceiling though which makes him a solid pick.

Ayton is a nice player and fantasy friendly game, but I don't see superstar player in him. His defense is not good. And he is a bit bulky and slow to be a truely dominant two-way centre in the modern game. I'm not sure he has the work-ethic to explode and become a superstar. So overall I'm not backing him for a quantum leap, but I do think he'll get better. My prediction for Ayton next season is:
18.5/11/2.1/0.9/1.1/2.1 and 0.2 threes on 55/75% nice numbers and probably will sneak him into the top 25 also (I think Ayton and Siakam finish very close). But beyond that in the future I don't see too much more improvement on his numbers (probably a little to the 20/11 range).

Next year I'll predict Ayton(top 25)Siakam (top 25)>Collins(top30)>Turner(top35) in fantasy.

I've argued for years on here real-life matters A LOT for fantasy. These are good examples. If you are risk adverse I'd suggest taking Ayton>Turner>Siakam>Collins in fantasy, but IMO you don't win without risk in really competitive leagues and I always take some risks on guys that I predict will breakout (other guys I'm high on break outs this year: Az Gordon, Landrey Shamet, OG Anounoby, Kev Huerter). You can still play it safe with breakout guys you just have to do your research into their real-life games, work ethics (esp. over the summer) and characters. This is why I recommend Siakam highly (third round target for me) - because I think he has 2nd round upside with 4th round floor.

Edited by Jake the snake
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3 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

Real life plays a big factor into this discussion. 

I've argued for years on here real-life matters A LOT for fantasy. These are good examples. If you are risk adverse I'd suggest taking Ayton>Turner>Siakam>Collins in fantasy, but IMO you don't win without risk in really competitive leagues and I always take some risks on guys that I predict will breakout (other guys I'm high on break outs this year: Az Gordon, Landrey Shamet, OG Anounoby, Kev Huerter). You can still play it safe with breakout guys you just have to do your research into their real-life games, work ethics (esp. over the summer) and characters. This is why I recommend Siakam highly (third round target for me) - because I think he has 2nd round upside with 4th round floor. 

Sorry, but real life plays barely any role in fantasy.  It's a puzzle to be figured out, completely separate from the actual NBA.

 

Two easy examples: Capela was top 25 last season but imo is a mediocre big irl.  Against the Warriors Looney played him to a standstill.  Clint got some clutch offensive rebounds but instead of finishing passed it out and Harden or whomever missed the shot, those rebounds turned out to be inconsequential.  He gets rested sometimes late in games due to occasional deployment of Hack-A-Capela.  He makes little discernible defensive impact.  Yet he is a top 25 fantasy player...why?  Led the league in positive FG% impact, good rebounds, blocks 3x the median.  That's it.  Blocks are so  valuable that he finished 23rd.  

 

Another easy example: Covington.  Finished 16th last season in per game.  Is he the 16th best player irl...gtfo.   He's an excellent wing defender and that translates into stocks, stocks are valuable, that's the only reason why he's top 25.  He's not even an accurate three point shooter. E.g. Joe Ingles or Joe Harris are better shooters, but he's lightyears ahead of them in fantasy due to stocks.

 

An example from the other end: Donovan Mitchell was the offensive leader for a playoff team, yet didn't crack the top 50.  Why?  Low FG%/TO, that's it.  Do you think that Covington is a significantly better player irl than Mitchell?

 

If someone really conflated real life with fantasy they'd draft Westbrook in the 2nd, DeRozan in the 3rd, Dipo in the 4th, Griffin in the 5th, etc. and just get owned.  

 

Siakam could break so ******** hard, as hard as you homers are rooting for and hit 25/8/4; 2 threes, 1 steal, .9 blocks; 50/80 on 2.5 TO and STILL miss the top 25.  Why?  Because almost every top 25 player is a big who gets at least 9 rebounds, or a little who gets at least 5 assists, PLUS you almost have to get stocks.  Lillard is one of the few players in the top 25 who doesn't get stocks, but makes up for it in other ways.  The player I keep looking at in BBM whenever Siakam gets brought up is Aldridge, the 25th ranked player.  This has turned into a broken record but if he can't surpass Aldridge then he can't be top 25.  Imo more young players will sneak into the top 25 than those falling out.  And idk if even the most ambitious Siakam lines I've seen posted beat Aldridge.  It might be close. 

 

As for the other three: I might agree with you on their real life potential but you're neglecting the value of stocks. Turner will always have the most potential due to getting the most blocks.  I'm not even certain you're using BBM as an analytic tool if you predict Turner will be top 35 when he was 26th last season (top 25 if you throw out Sampson) and is still improving.  He's not going to drop 10 spots, if anything he's rising 10 spots.  Of all of the players, he has the most room for growth because his relative lack rebounds are keeping him down which should be one of the easiest things to fix once he gets older/puts on more size.  

 

I agree Ayton is capped.  But you're conflating real life with fantasy again.  Siakam might be a better irl defender, but if Ayton gets more blocks then that adds a ton of fantasy value, and I think he will add blocks before Collins or Siakam.  You can be a good zone defender, who contests without fouling and be less valuable in fantasy than a hacker like MitchRob or Whiteside in his prime who just chases blocks.    

 

Collins might have "breakout potential" but if he keeps getting .4 steals and .6 blocks and playing 61 games then he will never be top 25.  He could get 20/10 efficiently and if his combined stocks are under 2 that's still outside the top 30, let alone 25.  Hell, he could hit 24/12 and STILL not be top 30 if he doesn't get stocks.  

 

FWIW I wish this Pascal conversation would just die. The bet is already made but you guys keep quoting me so I keep responding.

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14 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

1. Sorry, but real life plays barely any role in fantasy.  It's a puzzle to be figured out, completely separate from the actual NBA.

2. Siakam could break so ******** hard, as hard as you homers are rooting for and hit 25/8/4; 2 threes, 1 steal, .9 blocks; 50/80 on 2.5 TO and STILL miss the top 25.

3. I agree Ayton is capped.  But you're conflating real life with fantasy again.  Siakam might be a better irl defender, but if Ayton gets more blocks then that adds a ton of fantasy value, and I think he will add blocks before Collins or Siakam. 

4. FWIW I wish this Pascal conversation would just die. The bet is already made but you guys keep quoting me so I keep responding.

1. You missed my point totally. I never said real life defines fantasy, which is the point you are making with all your off-topic examples. I said:
 

Quote

real-life matters A LOT for fantasy.

My arguement is based on opportunity to expand roles (breakout) and improve their fantasy value, due to their on-court IRL potential as a player. Other examples include things like relationships with coaches, players character issues, opportunity on teams, teams signing guys in other players positions, etc.

2. If Siakam puts up the numbers you describe there is no way in hell he isn't in the top 25...those are ELITE rarified numbers 

3. Ayton only gets 1 block per game, he isn't a defining shot blocker. Maybe he improves a little, but if he was going to have big value in blocks he would have been much better last season as is the case with elite shot blockers - they show it as rookies.

4. So what you are saying here is that you wish people would stop discussing things and making arguments that you don't agree with. You've responded more than anyone else on this particular forum. People have a right to respond, just as you have to make your points, which you have more than anyone else. People were discussing the value of 4 players and I added to the discussion of that. Is that not allowed if it doesn't agree with your point of view?

Edited by Jake the snake

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1 minute ago, Jake the snake said:

1. You missed my point totally. I never said real life defines fantasy, which is the point you are making with all your off-topic examples. I said:
 

My arguement is based on opportunity to expand roles (breakout) and improve their fantasy value, due to their on-court IRL potential as a player. Other examples include things like relationships with coaches, players character issues, opportunity on teams, teams signing guys in other players positions, etc.

2. If Siakam puts up the numbers you describe there is no way in hell he isn't in the top 25...those are ELITE rarified numbers 

3.So what you are saying here is that you wish people would stop discussing things and making arguments that you don't agree with. You've responded more than anyone else on this particular forum. People have a right to respond, just as you have to make your points, which you have more than anyone else. People were discussing the value of 4 players and I added to the discussion of that. Is that not allowed if it doesn't agree with your point of view?

1) I didn't miss your point.  Your point missed me.  Because what you're saying is not true.  Fantasy and irl barely have any correlation.  Irl "breakout" potential translates into usage,  but usage doesn't translate into being a good fantasy player.  The biggest indicator of fantasy success is stocks because stocks are scarce.  The second is efficiency.  The third is if you can greatly exceed the median in assists or rebounds.  Usage mostly correlates to points, secondarily to assists, points being the worse indicator of success.  Very few players are 2x the median in points and NO ONE is 3x the median in points.  But a lot of players are 2x the median in blocks, rebounds, assists.

2) For the record, I think there's a chance in a million he hits those numbers. I deliberately came up with a number that the most outrageous homer might come up with.  BTW...you're wrong.  You're probably looking at points then looking at all the other good stuff, so that must be elite.  Those numbers *might* be top 25 numbers (it depends on what other players do) but it's a lot closer than you think.  25 points is 1.5x the median.  8 rebounds is about 1.5x the median.  4 assists, barely above the median.  2 threes, about 1.5x the median.  1 steal, below the median, .9 blocks about 1.5x the median.  2.5 TO, -1.5x the median.  If you think those numbers are rarified then damn you must love LMA.  LMA was across the board more efficient than those numbers, got more rebounds/blocks.  I deliberately crafted a line that I knew you'd bite on to make a point.  Which is despite being a scientist I don't think you're sensitive to small adjustments to stats.  A lot of it hinges on tiny advantages.  If the line dropped even a tiny bit, say 23/7.5/3; 1.5 threes, .9 steals, .8 blocks, 2.5 TO then it would pick him out of the top 25 and I'm not even certain many of you would tell much difference with the "eyeball" test.  Making the top 25 is very hard to do.       

3) No, what I'm saying is I'd wish you'd quit quoting me when bringing it up.  I haven't quoted you or GilePile on this topic because to me the conversation was over when I made a bet I'm favored to win.  You can post without quoting me.

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1. Yes stocks matter a lot. I am well aware of that, but there are a lot of guys out there that with great stocks that hurt you in other areas. Siakam hurts you no where and is a perfectly round much like LMA, who I do rate in fantasy, much like Vuce - who I also rate in fantasy. Neither is exceptional in stocks (2.1 for Vuce and 1.8 for LMA last year - which is about what I predict Siakam to be) and both were top 25 (Vuce top 10, which is where I rate him). But Vuce has really bounced back to elite value because last two years because the Magic have shifted from looking for alternatives to build around to finally making Vuce a central piece to their future. In 2016/17 they seemed to be moving away from him and his value dropped, then his usage bounced back (esp. last year) and he is now top 10. Once again stocks are great, but if that is all you care about then I don't do the same strategy, especially for roto (which pretty much all I care about), where I aim to build all round teams with a lot of good all-round players. My preference to elite guys that hurt you in certain areas and require other guys elite in those areas with other deficiencies, you can lose balance easy doing that, but I'm sure it can work too.

2. You have hijacked this whole thread to make Siakam's forum about per game where every other player gets discussed on overall value. He has also proven extremely durable. That is a major boost to his value. I mean you commented on Kawhi being overall value of 18 so that is where he should be drafted. You're the one that brought up the bet again and hence trying to make this a top 25 per game thing again. It's almost like we can't properly discuss his season value because you have created some rule against it. The bet is done and I'm happy with what I said and confident in my prediction, but move on man...
His overall season value is what I am talking about when I ranked the players in my comment today:

Quote

Ayton(top 25)Siakam (top 25)>Collins(top30)>Turner(top35)

Turner isn't super durable 60, 81, 65, 74 game per season. That is part of my lower ranking, as is the "real life" concern of his team mate taking minutes off him, or maybe better way to put it, not allowing Turner to get more minutes than he already does. And Turner's value is HUGELY dependent upon him keeping his blocks at 2.7 per game, which is going to be tough. Sure he might do it, but it wouldn't surprise to see him drop down towards 2 and thus he takes a HUGE fantasy hit, again this could be based on "real life" stuff - such as becoming a more aware defender that doesn't chase blocks and gamble too much. 

3. Happy now I didn't respond to your comment? I expect you will from this point ask permission of everyone publicly if you are allowed to "quote" their comments. All you are doing is trying to make this a discussion in which certain people can't participate...sorry - neither you or psychout were made some overload moderator that rules who can and comment based on agreeing with your opinion. If you want the Siakam discussion to die then don't respond, that is your choice. You don't have to do it if people quote you or if people don't. I'm not asking you to leave this forum, in fact I've enjoyed our debate on this, but telling people how and where to comment and liking Psychout's comments for doing the same isn't cool. 

Edited by Jake the snake

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So that line I posted was the most outrageous line that even you don't think he will hit.  Let's look at your previous projection, open the BBM tool, and actually do the math.  Let's compare this line:  22ppg 8.2rbs 4.2ast 1.0stl 0.9blk 2.2TOs 50/37/79% and 1.5 threes to other bigs.

We know he's not going to be better than AD so let's move to the next:

11) Vucevic: 21ppg 12rbs 3.8ast 1 stl, 1.1 blk 2 TO 52/79 2 TO and 1.1 threes.  He's pretty close to Vuc in everything but Vuc is a little more efficient and gets more rebounds.  Next!

13) Jokic: 20ppg, 11 rebs, 7 ast, 1.5 steals, .7 blks 3 TO 51/82 and 1 three.  Jokic is more efficient, but commits more TO.  But Jokic has a big advantage in assists/steals.  Not to mention more rebs.  He can't be better than Jokic.  Next!

25) Aldridge 21 ppg/9 rpg/2.5 ast; .5 stl, 1.3 blk 1.8 TO 52/85 and .1 threes.  This one is a lot closer.  It's about even in points, Siakam would have an advantage in threes, assists, steals.  Aldridge would have a small advantage in rebounds. But the biggest difference is in blocks and given that the median in blocks is .6, even a .4 advantage is bigger than one might think.  A .4 advantage in blocks is roughly the equivalent to a 10 point advantage.  Aldridge is across the board more efficient.  Aldridge's efficiency would counterbalance Siakam's advantages in threes, assists, steals.  Leaving the biggest difference maker to be blocks, which would give Aldridge the edge.

 

Even given your own numbers (which I doubt but you know more about Siakam than I do so I'll trust you) Aldridge would come out a better player than Siakam and Siakam would be 26th. That doesn't even mention the fact that Siakam was 41st last year in per game and there are younger players ahead of Siakam who might also improve more than him.  I'm not doing all of this to be a dick, but this is a math game.  Based on previous discussions I strongly doubt anyone has actually sat down and run the math.  I was forced to do so before arguing with you and it doesn't break down the way you're predicting.  That's why I was very clear that the bet is about top 25 value.  He very well could improve and I wouldn't be surprised if he hits something like 26th and I barely win.  But words have meaning and if it's top 25 then he actually has to be top 25.  Close doesn't cut it.  26th isn't top 25.    

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If you want to talk etiquette I have no problem with you and have learned more from you/debating with you than any other poster.  Pertaining to psychout, I've condemned his actions, and liked some of his comments.  You can agree with someone and still not like their tactics.  I condemn his tactics.  I know you're not Gile and I'm not Psychout, but Gile has said some things to me that I thought were out of line.  Eg. in the mock saying that I would disappear.  The one time I "disappeared" from rotoworld was when I was in the hospital for over a year.  When I returned I forgot my previous password, one of many things I forgot.  It's my own personal issue and I know there's no reason for him knowing that, so I ignored it.  Still pretty cold to insinuate that I would #1) lose the bet; #2) that if I did lose the bet I would "disappear".  Considering it was a post in a mock, he had no real reason to bring my name up, so that's what I mean about quoting me needlessly.  I chose to ignore that comment and move on.  You didn't make the comment.  I'm just trying to draw parallel here, psychout isn't my alt account nor is Gile your alt account.  As far as civility is concerned, you and I are at least civil, those two are the ones muddying the waters.  

 

As far as hijacking this thread.  Um...no I didn't.  I brought in Ayton, Collins, Turner etc because that was a direct question that asked.    

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On 7/21/2019 at 1:44 AM, Mikhov said:

Can we please get back on topic? The “I told you so” narrative adds nothing useful to any discussion.

Everyone makes mistakes- so what? Life goes on. It’s more important that we learn from said mistakes and improve as F GMs, which is the point of this forum.

Anyone here now, is obviously preparing for their respective drafts, in the aftermath of the most impactful offseason to date.

ANYWAY, would you gents unanimously pick Siak over Ayton? They’re both young, can move the ball (Ayton has shown flashes), hit their fts better than most bigs, can score, aren’t reliable for stocks and excel at fg%. 

Given that Siak’s 3PM contributions (He wont likely be a 2 3PM guy this season) are less meaningful in this era. Who would you rather have and why?

 

On 7/22/2019 at 9:12 PM, hipriest69 said:

Let's throw in 2 more bigs in that range - Collins and Turner, into the Ayton/Siakam discussion.  Who of the 4 you got?  

 

People who like Ayton - do you think he adds the 3 ball this year?  

 

22 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

As far as hijacking this thread.  Um...no I didn't.  I brought in Ayton, Collins, Turner etc because that was a direct question that asked.    

Pertaining the other players, no-where was PER GAME value mentioned by @Mikhov or @hipriest69, so let's move past the bet (again its done and we can laugh at it either way after the season) and start discussing Siakam like everyone else in fantasy is concerned - on TOTAL VALUE with an eye on per game value. Siakam's durability plays a big factor in the debate about these guys. No hard feelings...As i've said I respect your input and discussions let's move on.

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6 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

 

Pertaining the other players, no-where was PER GAME value mentioned by @Mikhov or @hipriest69, so let's move past the bet (again its done and we can laugh at it either way after the season) and start discussing Siakam like everyone else in fantasy is concerned - on TOTAL VALUE with an eye on per game value. Siakam's durability plays a big factor in the debate about these guys. No hard feelings...As i've said I respect your input and discussions let's move on.

I agree.  I assumed they were referencing per game.  Pertaining to totals, Siakam can beat them out.  Actually he already did best Ayton and Collins.

 

If it’s totals I still pick Turner: he ranked 21st in totals last year.  He misses games but not that many, should play over 70.  His 4 stocks are hard to over come. 

 

Totals, I would go: Turner, Siakam, Ayton, Collins. 

 

I have no confidence that Ayton or Collins will play over 70 games. Their teams will probably have nothing to play for.

  

Edited by StifleTower2

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

#2) that if I did lose the bet I would "disappear"

What I meant is that user name "Stifle Tower2" user name might disappear because of the bet, not the person. I am sorry If I offended you

Edited by Gile Pile
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