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Justin Jackson 2019 Outlook

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If Gordon's contract dispute drags into the preseason, Jackson could be a very interesting target. 

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9 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

He’s a legit RB2 with RB1 upside each week if Gordon sits .. Probably a fringe RB1 which is excellent 

 

No he's not. 

 

He's not gonna become an every down back. He'll be put into a committee with ekeler and someone else, likely a cheap FA RB. 

 

in that committee ekeler would likely be the guy to own because he's explosive after the catch and would probably have an increase in receptions to go along with his ~100 carries. 

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8 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

No he's not. 

 

He's not gonna become an every down back. He'll be put into a committee with ekeler and someone else, likely a cheap FA RB. 

 

in that committee ekeler would likely be the guy to own because he's explosive after the catch and would probably have an increase in receptions to go along with his ~100 carries. 

 

Till he gets a neck stinger 

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18 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

 

Till he gets a neck stinger 

 

Injury is always a concern for all backs. No argument there. 

 

He played more games than Gordon last year. I'm aware wasn't asked to do as much, but I don't play the "what if he gets injured game" like others. 

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It will likely be a committee with Ekeler if Gordon isn't available into the regular season as mentioned.  Jackson would be the Chargers rb to own in standard as he would likely get the redzone/goal-line carries and Ekeler would be the guy to own in PPR.

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11 hours ago, machine3 said:

 

If Gordon's contract dispute drags into the preseason, Jackson could be a very interesting target. 

 

Agree.   Ekeler is most effective in a COP role and won’t see much difference regardless of who the primary rb is.   He’s the quick, fresh legs to hit the defense with out of the backfield.   

 

JJ is the guy who steps into a major workload spike,  and my preferred option in any format.   

 

This is likely all academic, as I think Gordon either plays on his existing contract or they work out an extension.   The situation would have to deteriorate and start getting ugly to really think MG3 won’t play in 2019.  

 

 

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Jackson filled in well last year when Gordon and Ekeler were both injured and he also showed that he has enough talent to be the main guy, if needed, as he also is a talented pass-catcher as well.  But the Chargers also like Ekeler and will likely let the hot hand take the majority of the carries.

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I'd draft Justin Jackson with the thought he'd operate as the RB1, not Ekeler, who IMHO is better served in the COP role. This isn't a slight vs Ekeler, just my opinion of how it will play out on the actual field, based on the individuals themselves and the LAC system.

More on this/my opinion:

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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My first instinct was "oh boy, Jackson's gold right now if this holds up" but I've come back down a bit on it.   He was solid I guess in limited action, but there isn't enough there to show me that he's a good candidate for useful production.   Assuming Gordon is not there for week 1, I'd be stunned if this 12 win team pins their entire run game on just Jackson and Ekeler.    If Newsome isn't good enough to mix in, they'll be adding a back somewhere who's at least a mild threat.    Even if Jackson does get his share, he'll need catches to pay off.  Was his singular game with 10 targets a positive sign, or an aberration? 

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Isn't Ekeler and Jackson about the same weight and size?  

 

If true, why is Jackson being anointed as the primary RB?

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4 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Even if Jackson does get his share, he'll need catches to pay off.  Was his singular game with 10 targets a positive sign, or an aberration? 

 

Positive sign. Check out my breakdown on Jackson's historical receiving abilities and 2018 catch rate/increase for targets, in my previous post ^

 

5 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

Isn't Ekeler and Jackson about the same weight and size?  

If true, why is Jackson being anointed as the primary RB?

 

Approximately the same weight, but Jackson is listed at 6' (NFL Combine = 6') while Ekeler is closer to 5'9" (pro day = 5'8" and 5/8)

Also, while each produced in college, Jackson did it vs the Big 10, while Ekeler played vs the Rocky Mountain Conference. They also have similar historical receiving talents, and Ekeler has a high fumble rate. *more info in my previous post ^

 

 

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16 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

Isn't Ekeler and Jackson about the same weight and size?  

 

If true, why is Jackson being anointed as the primary RB?

Mostly because we saw what happened with Ekeler as the primary and it wasn’t pretty.   He was awesome as the COP.   

 

It makes too much sense for JJ to prep as the primary in case of MG3 holdout and Ekeler to continue to improve his role.    That being said... it doesn’t mean JJ outtouches or outperforms Ekeler.   This chargers offense is perfectly comfortable going spread and is very multiple in how they attack.   But it’s one thing to need a fill in for MG3 and another entirely to plan a whole season around using these 2 most effectively.   

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I think people put too much stock in height and weight when it comes to a RB being a RB1 or COP.

Sure, the average exists and it’s more common for RBs of certain measurables to get a more extensive workload.

But this does not mean a player like JJ couldn’t handle that workload because of his weight.  Yes, while JJ is the near perfect height for workhorse RBs he weighs about 10 pounds less than most.  Ekelar, while shorter, weighs slightly more.

This comes down to the individual player.  Some people are more sturdy than others regardless of physical stats and some are more injury prone.

Ekelar has thus far shown he gets banged up more easily and he has shown signs that he would probably not be capable of a RB1 role.  JJ in his small sample size has not shown that issue despite his weight.  

That doesn’t mean he can or can’t, it just means JJs capabilities have not yet been determined.  Not to mention he could still add more muscle weight if he so chose.

it seems like the fantasy community is very quick to ascribe limitations based on those measurables.  But that is never a certainty.  

I think it’s very likely MG either sits out or gets traded.  It really doesn’t seem like the Chargers are willing to pay him what he thinks he’s worth.  If they do move on I would fully expect JJ and AE to be in a RBBC with AE retaining his COP role, with perhaps a few more carries per game. JJ will most likely get first crack at the RB1 role, but that doesn’t mean he will get as many carries as Melvin got either. If he proves he can’t handle the load then I do think they will look at other options.  But everything now points to them believing in JJ.

im not sure if there is a current FA RB that they could sign to take on that role if JJ doesn’t work out.  Maybe like Shady if he gets cut?  Anyway, at least at the beginning of the season JJ should get a huge bump in ADP.  I personally think he could be a quality fantasy RB2 in that kind of RBBC with AE.

Tiki Barber only weight like 205.

Edited by brakeyawself
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Drafted early and ended up with Melvin (I know. Too early. Needed fix). Had to pick up AE and now JJ so I decided to look at some highlights of his work from last season. From his limited snaps I did like the following:

- Good vision.

- Decent burst through the hole.

- Ability to get skinny.

- Good elusiveness.

- Catches with hands.

- Keeps legs churning.

The bad:

- Lacks in breakaway speed.

- Limites sample size of work.

Take a look for yourselves. 

 

 

 

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As an example of what JJ could do.  It’s being reported that Ronald Jones II has put on about 13 pounds of muscle this offseason.   That brings him from 208 to 221 lbs.  Perhaps that gain is part of the reason he’s getting such glowing reports this summer.  His measurables now fit those of a typical workhorse RB.

JJ at 6 ft, could theoretically do the same.  All though JJ from what I understand is leaner than most, with less body fat than most.  So I am not sure how much his weight will factor in to his possible usage.  But if he added 10 pounds of muscle that would put him in the realm of many former and present RB1s.  If he needs it that is.  

If his body fat is as low as suggested, he might not need quite as much to take a bigger pounding.

Edited by brakeyawself

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Ekeler and Jackson are both 23, with Ekeler one more year experience.

- Ekeler had more touches/yards/TDs in his first season than Jackson in his first
- Ekeler had 3 times as many touches/yards/TDs in 2018 as Jackson in 2018
- Ekeler had a (very slightly) better Y/C and Y/R than Jackson.

Both have a similar profile in usage, ie rushing vs receiving, and splits per down; except Ekeler was used a number of times on 4th down, and Jackson never.

From the above it seems to me the coaches trust Ekeler a lot more than *Jackson. That could change of course, but I would think that Ekeler is the heir to the throne, and so far Jackson is just the backup to the backup.

Edited by Boudewijn
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15 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Ekeler and Jackson are both 23, with Ekeler one more year experience.

- Ekeler had more touches/yards/TDs in his first season than Jackson in his first
- Ekeler had 3 times as many touches/yards/TDs in 2018 as Jackson in 2018
- Ekeler had a (very slightly) better Y/C and Y/R than Jackson.

Both have a similar profile in usage, ie rushing vs receiving, and splits per down; except Ekeler was used a number of times on 4th down, and Jackson never.

From the above it seems to me the coaches trust Ekeler a lot more than *Jackson. That could change of course, but I would think that Ekeler is the heir to the throne, and so far Jackson is just the backup to the backup.

 

Ekelar doesn’t look capable of the workload, regardless of talent.  He gets injured too easily and the staff seem to seriously like JJ.  Even last year with MG injured they split carries between AE and JJ, which seems exactly like what they’d do if MG sits or leaves. JJ so far has looked more capable of grinding it out, short yardage and red zone situations.  It might end up a pretty even split with JJ doing more dirty work.  But I don’t think they’d risk injuring AE by giving him more than half the overall carries. JJ simply seems more capable of getting the lions share if they split carries unevenly.

 

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I'm more interested in Jay ajayi once they sign him or Alfred Morris. 

 

Cant see Ajayi ending up in LA no matter what happens.  For starters, he’s shown displeasure at being in a RBBC which he would certInly be i if he did go to LA.  He’s also too injury prone, can’t pass protect or catch well.  He seems to think a bit too highly of himself.  

If I had to guess, he’d either sit out or sign as a direct backup somewhere like Dallas.  Indy showed some interest, but I think they too would take the RBBC approach. Or perhaps he’d wait to see if a workhorse RB got injured during the season to try to jump in.  Either way, Chargers current RB stable, combined with RB philosophy, doesn’t suit Ajayi at all.

Morris maybe a better possibility.  But no matter who they might sign, I still would think AE and JJ are RB1 and RB2 in their RBBC.  JJ would have to fail in that scenario for whomever to take over his role.  Chargers clearly like JJ a lot, and seem very aware he’s not a complete replacement for MG.

i would think it more likely if MG leaves, they sign an undrafted rookie or a 1st/2nd year back that gets cut.  I’m thinking of guys like Ozigbo or Holyfield or really any of those type prospects if they don’t end up making their current squads.  

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36 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

 

Ekelar doesn’t look capable of the workload, regardless of talent.  He gets injured too easily and the staff seem to seriously like JJ.  Even last year with MG injured they split carries between AE and JJ, which seems exactly like what they’d do if MG sits or leaves. JJ so far has looked more capable of grinding it out, short yardage and red zone situations.  It might end up a pretty even split with JJ doing more dirty work.  But I don’t think they’d risk injuring AE by giving him more than half the overall carries. JJ simply seems more capable of getting the lions share if they split carries unevenly.

 

 

Staff seem to seriously like JJ?  As evidenced by what?  Their minimal usage of him last year?

 

When has he looked more capable of grinding it out in short yardage and red zone situations?

 

He had one game with significant work when Ekeler and MG were both out.  He split time with that Newsome loser.  He's slightly better than Newsome.  He played second fiddle to Ekeler last year though when he was healthy.  And they all playing behind MG if he's in.

 

I don't think you watched the San Diego Chargers play football last year honestly.

 

27 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

 

Cant see Ajayi ending up in LA no matter what happens.  For starters, he’s shown displeasure at being in a RBBC which he would certInly be i if he did go to LA.  He’s also too injury prone, can’t pass protect or catch well.  He seems to think a bit too highly of himself.  

If I had to guess, he’d either sit out or sign as a direct backup somewhere like Dallas.  Indy showed some interest, but I think they too would take the RBBC approach. Or perhaps he’d wait to see if a workhorse RB got injured during the season to try to jump in.  Either way, Chargers current RB stable, combined with RB philosophy, doesn’t suit Ajayi at all.

Morris maybe a better possibility.  But no matter who they might sign, I still would think AE and JJ are RB1 and RB2 in their RBBC.  JJ would have to fail in that scenario for whomever to take over his role.  Chargers clearly like JJ a lot, and seem very aware he’s not a complete replacement for MG.

i would think it more likely if MG leaves, they sign an undrafted rookie or a 1st/2nd year back that gets cut.  I’m thinking of guys like Ozigbo or Holyfield or really any of those type prospects if they don’t end up making their current squads.  

 

He's unemployed a week away from TC.  He's not calling shots.  He's praying for situations to have his name called.  This is it.  He's healthy today, he wouldn't be a long term signing.  He'd be a 1 year stop gap and the long term solution would be found in the 2020 NFL draft most likely or potentially 2020 FA if someone of value can be had cheap.

 

They have worthless backs on their own squad already.  Highly doubt they go fishing for other team's cast offs.  

 

I firmly expect someone like Ajayi or Morris to come in on a 1 year deal if this MG situation starts to look ugly and without resolve.  We see a 3 headed committee with the vet they sign being the lead back sharing time with JJ and Ekeler being solidified in his COP role.

 

Time will tell though, if MG doesn't report by start of season and they haven't signed a vet FA RB then I was clearly wrong.

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57 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

Ekelar doesn’t look capable of the workload

Maybe, I can't judge that, but in 2018 he had a significantly higher workload than Jackson, so the coaches don't seem to care.

 

57 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

He gets injured too easily and the staff seem to seriously like JJ

But they seem to like Ekeler more. Again, see workload.

 

57 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

Even last year with MG injured they split carries between AE and JJ

Except they didn't.

Gordon missed games 7, 12, 13 and 14; Ekeler also missed game 14. I put the chart below; draw your own conclusions.

image.png.528c980ea8c1088d435e3d4c3d8a1ccb.png

 

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Maybe, I can't judge that, but in 2018 he had a significantly higher workload than Jackson, so the coaches don't seem to care.

 

But they seem to like Ekeler more. Again, see workload.

 

Except they didn't.

Gordon missed games 7, 12, 13 and 14; Ekeler also missed game 14. I put the chart below; draw your own conclusions.

image.png.528c980ea8c1088d435e3d4c3d8a1ccb.png

 

 

Interesting that you mention workload, because my league gives points for production, not workload. 

 

It was actually weeks 7, 13, 14, and 15. Gordon played in week 12.

We need to talk about production over those 4 weeks Gordon missed, but first some context. You correctly pointed out that Ekeler got way more work. This was especially true in week 7, when Jackson basically didn't play. This is offset by Ekeler not playing in week 15. Both guys were involved in weeks 13 and 14, with the major edge in targets and carries going to Ekeler. Overall, 33 carries and 8 targets for Jackson. 40 carries and 20 targets for Ekeler. That's over twice as many targets, and just over 20% more carries. 

 

So, Ekeler must have been the guy to own in PPR, with how more work he was getting. Exactly how many more fantasy points did he score over those 4 weeks than Jackson? Negative 2... That's right, Jackson scored more fantasy points than Ekeler over that period, despite having significantly less usage. 

Also, in week 16, with Gordon back and Ekeler out, Jackson had 7 catches on 10 targets, so I don't think we should be worried about his ability to be involved in the passing game moving forward. 

 

Edited by ajs723
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