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Austin Ekeler 2019 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

He's the ultimate sell high IMO. 

Not really. He's only valued by current owners and his ROS stock just fell through the floor

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2 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Right we all know he’s coming back but regardless it doesn’t make sense for him to come back early if he’s trying to preserve himself. He only needs to report 30 days before the last game. Not six weeks like some said on here

The 30 days reports were a totally wrong presumption. In theory he could report late in November and then sue the NFL to accredit him a full season. But his chances to win such a case are shaky to slim at best.

Only way to make 100% sure he enters 2020 free agency is to show up 3 weeks earlier than their final 8 games. 3 weeks earlier because the Chargers could in theory use the maximum of a 3 week roster expemtion on Gordon.

Beside of all that juridical and contractual stuff, Gordon will show up in perfect shape and fully fired up to prove his worth and earn a lucrative new deal in 2020. He isn't a top tier elite RB by any means, but that doesn't mean he can't be paid like one or close to it. Look at the deals some lesser RBs got like McKinnon, Coleman or Dion Lewis. Devonta Freeman is comparable, arguably even worse than Gordon for some years now, and got a nice 5 year deal. Gordon will ball out! The fake injury suggestions are ridiculous. Would probably cost him more money than playing and getting injured for real.

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4 minutes ago, frog34 said:

From high-end RB1 in all formats to decent PPR flex...

I don't check into the Ekeler thread very often, but I guess it will burn during the next few days! 💣💥

 

Still doesn't make sense why. He was drafted in like the 6th round because it seemed like Gordon would be back at some point. People have received 3 weeks of incredible production, and could possibly see another 2-3 weeks of the same, before Ekeler possibly goes back to his normal role of a ppr RB2. Id say its already a massive win having Ekeler and still a strong option moving forward considering so many RBs are underperforming.

I also think Mel Gordon owners are spiking the ball way too soon. The contract dispute still exists, and we know that 1) he's not happy with his current pay, 2) the Chargers have taken a hardline approach and don't seem like they will cave on his demands. Gordon will be an entire month (at least) behind the rest of the NFL as far as being in game shape goes. A lot can still go wrong here.

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3 minutes ago, beerfish said:

Maybe Melvin just leaked this to get his name back in the news and remind all of those RB needy teams that they better act now with those trade offers. (crosses fingers)

Nah I think he just wants to buy low on ekeler in his fantasy league

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33 minutes ago, Mr.STD said:

 

Still doesn't make sense why. He was drafted in like the 6th round because it seemed like Gordon would be back at some point. People have received 3 weeks of incredible production, and could possibly see another 2-3 weeks of the same, before Ekeler possibly goes back to his normal role of a ppr RB2. Id say its already a massive win having Ekeler and still a strong option moving forward considering so many RBs are underperforming.

I also think Mel Gordon owners are spiking the ball way too soon. The contract dispute still exists, and we know that 1) he's not happy with his current pay, 2) the Chargers have taken a hardline approach and don't seem like they will cave on his demands. Gordon will be an entire month (at least) behind the rest of the NFL as far as being in game shape goes. A lot can still go wrong here.

 

Agree on the Ekeler take. He got taken in the 6th the very pick after I took Gordon in my league. It was just as much risk as taking Gordon there. Could be 1 week could be 8+ before he saw the field. I imagine in many leagues he got drafted even later. For what he did to start your season out he was a good value, still may have a little flex value, and might have a few more weeks before Gordon takes on the full load.

The contract dispute in my eyes is a null point. He is playing on his current contract this year, no question about it, and if he wants the top rb contract he wants he will play well. I think he finally came to grips with the fact that

A.) The Chargers weren't giving him a top RB contract this year.

B.) No trades materialized. He wasn't getting that contract from anyone else either.

C.) If he truly wants that top RB contract, he's going to have to play this year and earn it no matter how much he thinks he already has. He won't be denied if he comes back now and absolutely kills it. That has to be his plan. He wants one thing, that's a massive contract. This is his only route to get it. Not faking an injury, not coming back and playing 6 games.

Agree with game shape as well though and you see injuries happen when guys come back midseason without camp and all that like everyone else had. 

Anyone who is saying he is tucking his tail is silly. He's doing what he should have done. That says a lot about him, and if he balls out he will get the contract he wants next year from someone. This was the move all along, it wasn't the year for him to hold out.

Edited by tschwicht
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What I do see happening is Gordon is going to be in a 50/50 split with ekeler to prevent him from getting a huge contract in the off season.

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3 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

What I do see happening is Gordon is going to be in a 50/50 split with ekeler to prevent him from getting a huge contract in the off season.

 

 

I am more in the camp of the Chargers know he is gone so they will run him till he breaks.

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42 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

Not really. He's only valued by current owners and his ROS stock just fell through the floor

sell high window was after week 2

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1 minute ago, altmin said:

 

 

I am more in the camp of the Chargers know he is gone so they will run him till he breaks.

It could go either way. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

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3 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

What I do see happening is Gordon is going to be in a 50/50 split with ekeler to prevent him from getting a huge contract in the off season.

 

Gordon is the better RB, right? The Chargers are paying him and there is a good chance won't resign him, right?

Why would they not feed him every chance they get to get every penny out of his contract?

This benefits the Chargers because they get all Gordon's production. They also keep Ekeler fresh for when Gordon leaves for a big deal next year.

This benefits Gordon, because if he wants that huge RB contract he needs to produce this year too. It's clear it wasn't happening without another year of showing it.

You think the Chargers are going to be spiteful and hurt their chances of winning just to ruin Melvin Gordon's contract? If anything, if the Chargers don't want to pay him, they want some other team to pay him as much money as possible. 

The takes on these forums are hilarious. "He's going to play one down and say his foot hurts."  "The Chargers are going to hold a massive emotional personal grudge to make Melvin Gordon earn less money." 

NFL teams want to win. They have to win. It's how they keep fans and make money. It's how they attract free agents. It's the whole point of this thing. If you're paying Melvin Gordon $5 million this year, as a RB, you're getting everything you can out of him.

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7 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

What I do see happening is Gordon is going to be in a 50/50 split with ekeler to prevent him from getting a huge contract in the off season.

 

3 minutes ago, altmin said:

 

 

I am more in the camp of the Chargers know he is gone so they will run him till he breaks.

 

I am in the camp that the Chargers will try to win games and do whatever they think will help them win this year which likely means both guys will get a decent share of work since they are both very good and there is no need to run either into the ground. 

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1 minute ago, vthokie3 said:

sell high window was after week 2

I dunno if a sell high window ever existed for him in the first place in most leagues where people were in tune with MGIII's situation.

 

The only "sell high" window I see that could exist with savvy owners would be if he continues to get in the endzone with Gordon back.  Which is still possible, though unlikely.

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14 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

What I do see happening is Gordon is going to be in a 50/50 split with ekeler to prevent him from getting a huge contract in the off season.

 

It obviously doesn't help Ekeler but he's still going to put up RB2 numbers in PPR even with Gordon back in harness. He has a pretty defined role in that offence and very few players drafted Ekeler as their RB1.

So he's not going to suddenly disappear with Gordon back. Just might limit his ceiling.

Edited by IslandBoy

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2 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

 

I am in the camp that the Chargers will try to win games and do whatever they think will help them win this year which likely means both guys will get a decent share of work since they are both very good and there is no need to run either into the ground. 

 

That is a reasonable take.

 

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17 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

Gordon is the better RB, right? The Chargers are paying him and there is a good chance won't resign him, right?

Why would they not feed him every chance they get to get every penny out of his contract?

This benefits the Chargers because they get all Gordon's production. They also keep Ekeler fresh for when Gordon leaves for a big deal next year.

This benefits Gordon, because if he wants that huge RB contract he needs to produce this year too. It's clear it wasn't happening without another year of showing it.

You think the Chargers are going to be spiteful and hurt their chances of winning just to ruin Melvin Gordon's contract? If anything, if the Chargers don't want to pay him, they want some other team to pay him as much money as possible. 

The takes on these forums are hilarious. "He's going to play one down and say his foot hurts."  "The Chargers are going to hold a massive emotional personal grudge to make Melvin Gordon earn less money." 

NFL teams want to win. They have to win. It's how they keep fans and make money. It's how they attract free agents. It's the whole point of this thing. If you're paying Melvin Gordon $5 million this year, as a RB, you're getting everything you can out of him.

The chargers could easily do whatever they want. They could use Gordon as an example that these hold outs won’t work with the chargers and it won’t benefit the player. You think teams aren’t getting tired of players not honoring their contracts? Now I’m not saying they are going to bench him. But I don’t think they are going to run him into the ground either. I think they would prefer to keep Gordon but just not for how much money he wants. So a 50/50 split doesn’t seem like it’s really that out of context especially with ekeler playing well.

Edited by StevenSC400

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1 minute ago, StevenSC400 said:

The chargers could easily do whatever they want. They could use Gordon as an example that these hold outs won’t work with the chargers and it won’t benefit the player. You think teams aren’t getting tired of players not honoring their contracts? Now I’m not saying they are going to bench him. But I don’t think they are going to run him into the ground either. I think they would prefer to keep Gordon but just not for how much money he wants. So a 50/50 split doesn’t seem like it’s really that out of context especially with ekeler playing well.

 

A 50/50 split because Ekeler is playing well isn't out of the question. I'll admit, they may want to still give Ekeler run. They did last year. Although I think it would be more 60/40. I just don't think the Chargers would do it to spite him so he gets less money. They will do whatever they think will help them win, and this definitely could be an option that they feel helps them the most.

Gordon coming back early is a sign he is at least talking to the team in my eyes. I'm sure if he comes back he wants the chance to ball out and secure his next contract. Maybe he wants to come back and split carries to stay healthy but I don't think that is likely. Any down you are on the field in the NFL especially carrying the football can bring injury. Sitting out makes sense from an injury standpoint, but a split doesn't.

If you're on the field and you're trying to get top RB money, which is bellcow RB money, you're wanting the ball every down you can get it. I think he's likely had these conversations with the team about his return.

Will be interesting to see!

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he is still going to play...i was panicked but now im ok....just see what happens at this point...was hoping it would have happened by late october like it was anticipated...could chance he isnt going away...he still was productive last year.

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^ There's still a chance it's late October. This is a Schefter report, yes, but no solid news yet. I'm hoping Ekeler gives us another 2-4 good weeks.

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3 minutes ago, aapox said:

^ There's still a chance it's late October. This is a Schefter report, yes, but no solid news yet. I'm hoping Ekeler gives us another 2-4 good weeks.

 

yeah either way our value is ruined....MG owner trying to rape me at this point...so all i can do is hold...hopefully something works out on the waiver wire or i get a decent offer at some point

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So I guess MG is going to give in and lower his contract demands? I don't understand why the Chargers would budge in this negotiation.

They have t 2 very good backs already... Add that to the fact that Gordon was bad mouthing the Chargers fanbase on his Instagram live... (saying how when they were winning, none of the fans cared etc.)

Ugh. As an Ekeler fan I'm salty. I am working hard to trade him for Bell ATM. Seems like the logical target if the Bell owner is struggling, with the Jets on a bye.. This is definitely a tough spot to be in with Ekeler likely to go OFF this week. Hold and then sell? or sell now???

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1 minute ago, roscobangs said:

So I guess MG is going to give in and lower his contract demands? I don't understand why the Chargers would budge in this negotiation.

They have t 2 very good backs already... Add that to the fact that Gordon was bad mouthing the Chargers fanbase on his Instagram live... (saying how when they were winning, none of the fans cared etc.)

Ugh. As an Ekeler fan I'm salty. I am working hard to trade him for Bell ATM. Seems like the logical target if the Bell owner is struggling, with the Jets on a bye.. This is definitely a tough spot to be in with Ekeler likely to go OFF this week. Hold and then sell? or sell now???

 

If you have any possible way to ship him for Bell you need to do that instantly, but I seriously doubt the Bell owner will take it.

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Just now, roscobangs said:

So I guess MG is going to give in and lower his contract demands? I don't understand why the Chargers would budge in this negotiation.

They have t 2 very good backs already... Add that to the fact that Gordon was bad mouthing the Chargers fanbase on his Instagram live... (saying how when they were winning, none of the fans cared etc.)

Ugh. As an Ekeler fan I'm salty. I am working hard to trade him for Bell ATM. Seems like the logical target if the Bell owner is struggling, with the Jets on a bye.. This is definitely a tough spot to be in with Ekeler likely to go OFF this week. Hold and then sell? or sell now???

 

This news tanked his value. You sure as hell cant wait till after the Fins game and expect to get anything good next week. If for some reason the Bell owner is dumb enough to move him to you for Ekeler and a WR id jump on that.

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6 minutes ago, roscobangs said:

So I guess MG is going to give in and lower his contract demands? I don't understand why the Chargers would budge in this negotiation.

They have t 2 very good backs already... Add that to the fact that Gordon was bad mouthing the Chargers fanbase on his Instagram live... (saying how when they were winning, none of the fans cared etc.)

Ugh. As an Ekeler fan I'm salty. I am working hard to trade him for Bell ATM. Seems like the logical target if the Bell owner is struggling, with the Jets on a bye.. This is definitely a tough spot to be in with Ekeler likely to go OFF this week. Hold and then sell? or sell now???

They don't have to give in to anything. He reports or he doesn't. I'm not sure where you are reading that they've budged on the contract?

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1 minute ago, FitzMagic said:

They don't have to give in to anything. He reports or he doesn't. I'm not sure where you are reading that they've budged on the contract?

I guess I misunderstand the situation. I get that he can report with or without a contract, I just assumed that the whole point of the holdout was to secure a contract before returning. 

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1 minute ago, roscobangs said:

I guess I misunderstand the situation. I get that he can report with or without a contract, I just assumed that the whole point of the holdout was to secure a contract before returning. 

 

There is very little chance of this happening at this point. He overplayed his cards. His best hope is to ball out this year and hope to get a contract next year with another team.

There is a remote possibility that he stays out and the Chargers drop a few more games with Ekeler struggling, at which point it would incentivize the Chargers to bring Gordon back on a new contract but I don't see this happening. The relationship/trust is fractured.

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