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Austin Ekeler 2019 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, y2jbones said:

True, but it’s not just based on history. It’s also based on the Chargers welcoming Gordon back and the coaches specifically stating that he will return to his starters role and he gives them the best chance to win. Ekeler has been a fine RB3/Flex in the past and he’ll continue to be one this season, maybe with a little larger share of the backfield. 

 

And Bruce Arians has been discussing the wrong RB every week for the last 4. The point of this is no one has any effing idea what's going to happen until it actually does. 

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In order to arrive at some of the conclusions drawn by many in here you would really have to ignore the information that has been put out thus far. First, Melvin Gordon did not come back kicking and screaming. He came back READY to play. His attitude is positive and his reasons for coming back were to: A) help his team win because there was a NEED and B) prove that he deserved a new contrat by showing he was better than the Chargers gave him credit for. It would be foolish to believe that Melvin Gordon came back with no assurances from the team. No way he comes back happy knowing Ekeler just worked him into a timeshare. I know it sounds pretty and amazing, but that's just not the case. Coach Lynn SAID he spoke to Melvin prior to him coming in. The attitude in the locker room is full of excitement. Teammates are HAPPY he is back in the fold. The Leveon Bell situation was quite the opposite. Players and coaches openly expressed the fact that Conner would have a huge role even after Leveon returned. Coach Lynn does state that both Jackson and Ekeler will have a major role in the offense. Jackson and Ekeler - not just Ekeler. The word major is up for interpretation. Furthermore, it was clearly stated that Melvin Gordon is the starting running back. He is the guy. He will be generating the touchdowns and possesses something the current backs don't have. (See video link above). So, rather than believe what the coach has openly expressed, to make myself feel better about things, I claim he is lying? You don't think the Chargers and Gordon reached an understanding prior to him coming back? You don't think Gordon plans to showcase his worth and value this season? You believe he held out and plans to blindly return to a team that will mitigate his worth/opportunity by timesharing him with Ekeler just to make fantasy owners happy? Come on man. Giving Ekeler more run would be a reason NOT to come back. Melvin Gordon is trying to prove he deserves the big contract. He can only do that with touches. His attitude and demeanor, now that he is back, shows that he has reached a level of understanding with the franchise. He is showing no signs of frustration and he and Coach Lynn seem to be on the same page. I'm not saying I have the answers but if you look at this thing for what it is, you would see that it seems more likely Melvin Gordon is going to get his chance to show why he deserves all the money he is asking for than Ekeler somehow forcing a timeshare because he earned a few fantasy owners cheap points. The future of Gordon is on the table right now. Ekeler, while not going away completely, will have to take a back seat until next season. Perhaps the Chargers agreed not to tag Gordon next season and will either come correct with a deal or let him walk. Something feels different about him. He went from staying away from the team to being ecstatic to be back super QUICK. I guess we see how this thing plays out. AS far as Ekeler's value. You still play him. He had value last season and will likely see a minor uptick. He's earned it. But I find it hard to believe he has forced a timeshare. Not this season. Gordon will eat. His next contract depends on it.  

Edited by Fantasy Gooroo
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28 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

In order to arrive at some of the conclusions drawn by many in here you would really have to ignore the information that has been put out thus far. First, Melvin Gordon did not come back kicking and screaming. He came back READY to play. His attitude is positive and his reasons for coming back were to: A) help his team win because there was a NEED and B) prove that he deserved a new contrat by showing he was better than the Chargers gave him credit for. It would be foolish to believe that Melvin Gordon came back with no assurances from the team. No way he comes back happy knowing Ekeler just worked him into a timeshare. I know it sounds pretty and amazing, but that's just not the case. Coach Lynn SAID he spoke to Melvin prior to him coming in. The attitude in the locker room is full of excitement. Teammates are HAPPY he is back in the fold. The Leveon Bell situation was quite the opposite. Players and coaches openly expressed the fact that Conner would have a huge role even after Leveon returned. Coach Lynn does state that both Jackson and Ekeler will have a major role in the offense. Jackson and Ekeler - not just Ekeler. The word major is up for interpretation. Furthermore, it was clearly stated that Melvin Gordon is the starting running back. He is the guy. He will be generating the touchdowns and possesses something the current backs don't have. (See video link above). So, rather than believe what the coach has openly expressed, to make myself feel better about things, I claim he is lying? You don't think the Chargers and Gordon reached an understanding prior to him coming back? You don't think Gordon plans to showcase his worth and value this season? You believe he held out and plans to blindly return to a team that will mitigate his worth/opportunity by timesharing him with Ekeler just to make fantasy owners happy? Come on man. Giving Ekeler more run would be a reason NOT to come back. Melvin Gordon is trying to prove he deserves the big contract. He can only do that with touches. His attitude and demeanor, now that he is back, shows that he has reached a level of understanding with the franchise. He is showing no signs of frustration and he and Coach Lynn seem to be on the same page. I'm not saying I have the answers but if you look at this thing for what it is, you would see that it seems more likely Melvin Gordon is going to get his chance to show why he deserves all the money he is asking for than Ekeler somehow forcing a timeshare because he earned a few fantasy owners cheap points. The future of Gordon is on the table right now. Ekeler, while not going away completely, will have to take a back seat until next season. Perhaps the Chargers agreed not to tag Gordon next season and will either come correct with a deal or let him walk. Something feels different about him. He went from staying away from the team to being ecstatic to be back super QUICK. I guess we see how this thing plays out. AS far as Ekeler's value. You still play him. He had value last season and will likely see a minor uptick. He's earned it. But I find it hard to believe he has forced a timeshare. Not this season. Gordon will eat. His next contract depends on it.  

 

Ill revisit this post in a few weeks

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53 minutes ago, TheDoctor said:

 

And Bruce Arians has been discussing the wrong RB every week for the last 4. The point of this is no one has any effing idea what's going to happen until it actually does. 

Yep. People in here acting like they know what is going to happen is comical. 

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49 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

In order to arrive at some of the conclusions drawn by many in here you would really have to ignore the information that has been put out thus far. First, Melvin Gordon did not come back kicking and screaming. He came back READY to play. His attitude is positive and his reasons for coming back were to: A) help his team win because there was a NEED and B) prove that he deserved a new contrat by showing he was better than the Chargers gave him credit for. It would be foolish to believe that Melvin Gordon came back with no assurances from the team. No way he comes back happy knowing Ekeler just worked him into a timeshare. I know it sounds pretty and amazing, but that's just not the case. Coach Lynn SAID he spoke to Melvin prior to him coming in. The attitude in the locker room is full of excitement. Teammates are HAPPY he is back in the fold. The Leveon Bell situation was quite the opposite. Players and coaches openly expressed the fact that Conner would have a huge role even after Leveon returned. Coach Lynn does state that both Jackson and Ekeler will have a major role in the offense. Jackson and Ekeler - not just Ekeler. The word major is up for interpretation. Furthermore, it was clearly stated that Melvin Gordon is the starting running back. He is the guy. He will be generating the touchdowns and possesses something the current backs don't have. (See video link above). So, rather than believe what the coach has openly expressed, to make myself feel better about things, I claim he is lying? You don't think the Chargers and Gordon reached an understanding prior to him coming back? You don't think Gordon plans to showcase his worth and value this season? You believe he held out and plans to blindly return to a team that will mitigate his worth/opportunity by timesharing him with Ekeler just to make fantasy owners happy? Come on man. Giving Ekeler more run would be a reason NOT to come back. Melvin Gordon is trying to prove he deserves the big contract. He can only do that with touches. His attitude and demeanor, now that he is back, shows that he has reached a level of understanding with the franchise. He is showing no signs of frustration and he and Coach Lynn seem to be on the same page. I'm not saying I have the answers but if you look at this thing for what it is, you would see that it seems more likely Melvin Gordon is going to get his chance to show why he deserves all the money he is asking for than Ekeler somehow forcing a timeshare because he earned a few fantasy owners cheap points. The future of Gordon is on the table right now. Ekeler, while not going away completely, will have to take a back seat until next season. Perhaps the Chargers agreed not to tag Gordon next season and will either come correct with a deal or let him walk. Something feels different about him. He went from staying away from the team to being ecstatic to be back super QUICK. I guess we see how this thing plays out. AS far as Ekeler's value. You still play him. He had value last season and will likely see a minor uptick. He's earned it. But I find it hard to believe he has forced a timeshare. Not this season. Gordon will eat. His next contract depends on it.  

I'd agree with this.

In my estimation as long as Gordon is healthy, he's shown that he can be an elite back in this league and will demand touches indicative of it.

The way I'll be determining whether Ekeler goes into my lineup or not will be obviously if I have an option that demands more volume available, and then how much I think the Chargers will score in that game, because I believe he'll derive most of his value from red zone targets. 

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19 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'd agree with this.

In my estimation as long as Gordon is healthy, he's shown that he can be an elite back in this league and will demand touches indicative of it. 

 

Before his injury. Last time we saw him, he was going 12 for 41 rushing and 3 for 13 receiving. Meanwhile, Ekeler is averaging 122 yards from scrimmage and on pace for nearly 2k yards this year. 

Edited by Dexter75

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1 hour ago, TheDoctor said:

I'm still confused by why history plays any role in what happens moving forward.

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9 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Before his injury. Last time we saw him, he was going 12 for 41 rushing and 3 for 13 receiving. Meanwhile, Ekeler is averaging 122 yards from scrimmage and on pace for nearly 2k yards this year. 

He had 225 touches last year and scored 14 touchdowns in 12 games.

Saying this as someone who has Ekeler on his team, does not have MGIII on his team, and has no plans to trade Ekeler, it seems to me like if you're reading the tea leaves based on a one game sample size of MGIII in week 17 of last year and comparing it with an extrapolated version of a 4 game sample size of Ekeler without Gordon, you're likely doing yourself a disservice.

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3 minutes ago, TheDoctor said:

 

Imagine not understanding the context just to post a gif. 

 

He's saying it's ridiculous that you don't think history has any part in what happens moving forward. It's pretty clear to me.

NFL teams do what they can to have their best chance at winning. Looking at someone's history as a player is the first indicator in this situation. If this was a mid tier back, say he's been pretty good his whole career but if there is a hot hand and he's injured then they might roll with that hand. When you have a top tier RB (I didn't say top), and the Chargers CLEARLY think he is that based on offering him $10m a year, then you're going to use him. That's not a hot hand situation.

They had enough faith to offer him that contract because they feel he gives them the best chance at winning. Just because he thought it wasn't enough and didn't sign, doesn't mean it wasn't a GREAT offer. An offer that would only be made if they felt he was near the top of the league at his position.

And hot hand situations are very rare unless both talents are considered equal. NFL teams trust in previous production and skill. If you think Ekeler is fetching $10m from the Chargers or anyone else for that matter, I don't know what to tell you. The fact is Gordon is viewed by the Chargers and pretty much everyone else in the league as a top tier back and Ekeler is not. They are going to use him.

It doesn't mean that Ekeler isn't going to play or produce. I don't know why everyone is so caught up in this. He had his shot for a few weeks and put up good numbers for you, and will likely drift back to a lesser role but still see the field and score some fantasy points as a 6+ round pick. Ekeler AND Gordon owners both got a steal this year in my opinion. It's just simply Gordon's time now to be the lead guy.

And I totally agree with what the guy above said. Melvin came back without any negative comments, without any drama about getting paid. He reported. He's there to work. They are calling him the lead back. They obviously had conversations before he agreed to come back. No way he does without knowing where he fits after the first few weeks. I said this awhile back, but him coming back and playing is the best situation for both him and the team. He gets to earn that contract he wants (because that is most important to him and this is the only way he does it), and the Chargers get a contract year Gordon who is more motivated than ever to ride this year. He will be happy to have the chance.

 

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2 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

He's saying it's ridiculous that you don't think history has any part in what happens moving forward. It's pretty clear to me.

NFL teams do what they can to have their best chance at winning. Looking at someone's history as a player is the first indicator in this situation. If this was a mid tier back, say he's been pretty good his whole career but if there is a hot hand and he's injured then they might roll with that hand. When you have a top tier RB (I didn't say top), and the Chargers CLEARLY think he is that based on offering him $10m a year, then you're going to use him. That's not a hot hand situation.

They had enough faith to offer him that contract because they feel he gives them the best chance at winning. Just because he thought it wasn't enough and didn't sign, doesn't mean it wasn't a GREAT offer. An offer that would only be made if they felt he was near the top of the league at his position.

And hot hand situations are very rare unless both talents are considered equal. NFL teams trust in previous production and skill. If you think Ekeler is fetching $10m from the Chargers or anyone else for that matter, I don't know what to tell you. The fact is Gordon is viewed by the Chargers and pretty much everyone else in the league as a top tier back and Ekeler is not. They are going to use him.

It doesn't mean that Ekeler isn't going to play or produce. I don't know why everyone is so caught up in this. He had his shot for a few weeks and put up good numbers for you, and will likely drift back to a lesser role but still see the field and score some fantasy points as a 6+ round pick. Ekeler AND Gordon owners both got a steal this year in my opinion. It's just simply Gordon's time now to be the lead guy.

And I totally agree with what the guy above said. Melvin came back without any negative comments, without any drama about getting paid. He reported. He's there to work. They are calling him the lead back. They obviously had conversations before he agreed to come back. No way he does without knowing where he fits after the first few weeks. I said this awhile back, but him coming back and playing is the best situation for both him and the team. He gets to earn that contract he wants (because that is most important to him and this is the only way he does it), and the Chargers get a contract year Gordon who is more motivated than ever to ride this year. He will be happy to have the chance.

 


It most definitely does to an extent, but to simply think last year predicts exactly what happens this year is ridiculous. That's been my point the entire time. The factors have shifted quite dramatically that take a historical perspective to be a loose representation of what someone might expect to happen in the weeks moving forward. 

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Hopefully we get some talk this week on the RB situation from the coaches. If not I’m just going to assume Gordon is the lead back.

This could be headed for a worst case scenario for both Ekeler and Gordon owners. Could just become a committee in the backfield and at best both or one is a low end RB2.

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we all know what the history of this team is...even with MG out this year there was really 1 guy who got the majority of the work which was ekeler...so we understand that but with the depth problems the chargers have at WR and the awesome play ekeler has done so far this year we are betting he will have a role on the offense that will still be useable in fantasy...cant blame us for thinking that at all

Edited by Power-O

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35 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

He had 225 touches last year and scored 14 touchdowns in 12 games.

Saying this as someone who has Ekeler on his team, does not have MGIII on his team, and has no plans to trade Ekeler, it seems to me like if you're reading the tea leaves based on a one game sample size of MGIII in week 17 of last year and comparing it with an extrapolated version of a 4 game sample size of Ekeler without Gordon, you're likely doing yourself a disservice.

 

It was two games after his injury, weeks 16 and 17, both were terrible. Bottom line is, no one has any idea what Gordon will look like this weekend, all we can go off is last time we saw him which was week 16 and 17 and he was awful, looked like a guy who clearly lost a step (or two) after a grade 2 MCL sprain. Combine that with the fact he missed all of camp, preseason and 4 games. I know Gordon owners are dreaming of him being some bellcow elite back, but that was all before his last injury and before Ekeler showed he can undoubtedly be a featured back. 

Edited by Dexter75

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It seems to me that a lot of people are doing some "wishing" here. 

Some Ekeler owners "wish" that MGIII would have a more reduced role due to injuries, holdout, Ekeler's showing in September.

Some MGIII owners "wish" Ekeler would fade into an irrelevant third down scatback who never vultures any of Gordon's touches or, more importantly, TDs.

While all of this is in the realm of possibility, I believe in playing the odds.  The odds tell me that none of your wishes are coming true.  Weep not, this means that both backs have value.  Just maybe not as much value as you wish for.

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31 minutes ago, TheDoctor said:


It most definitely does to an extent, but to simply think last year predicts exactly what happens this year is ridiculous. That's been my point the entire time. The factors have shifted quite dramatically that take a historical perspective to be a loose representation of what someone might expect to happen in the weeks moving forward. 

 

Last year doesn't predict anything for a RB who reported much less than someone with a contract dispute that missed the first few weeks of the season. I agree, the league changes year to year. I'd say week to week in some scenarios. But this particular situation, I think it's pretty safe to make the assumption that this isn't going to be a situation where they decide to ride it out with Ekeler or not use Gordon to his full potential.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

It seems to me that a lot of people are doing some "wishing" here. 

Some Ekeler owners "wish" that MGIII would have a more reduced role due to injuries, holdout, Ekeler's showing in September.

Some MGIII owners "wish" Ekeler would fade into an irrelevant third down scatback who never vultures any of Gordon's touches or, more importantly, TDs.

While all of this is in the realm of possibility, I believe in playing the odds.  The odds tell me that none of your wishes are coming true.  Weep not, this means that both backs have value.  Just maybe not as much value as you wish for.

 

I think this is the best outlook going forward. I wouldn't say the odds are saying that Gordon comes back to a split timeshare. They are strongly in favor of him getting heavy usage as it makes sense for him and the team. But I agree that I think both backs will have value and I am not sold on Gordon jumping back to an RB1 immediately or even maybe the course of the year.

He was out the first few weeks and sometimes guys get injured from that. Bell is different in that he came back the next year and had camp and was there for the first game. He did have that injury and it showed down the stretch last year. But of course it would. No one knows. 

I'm still happy getting him where I and many others did in the 6th round or later. Ekeler owners should be happy too even though he's back as there will still be value there as well and the first few games probably pushed a lot of people into good position to start the season.

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2 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Ekeler, as a runner this year, has averaged 55 yards rushing per game at 3.93 yards per carry. 

Melvin Gordon has a career YPC of 4.0 and literally just posted his first season over 4.0 last year. I think most people agree who will be the lead back going forward, but YPC haven't exactly been Gordon's forte either.

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Just now, hangin n wangin said:

Melvin Gordon has a career YPC of 4.0 and literally just posted his first season over 4.0 last year. I think most people agree who will be the lead back going forward, but YPC haven't exactly been Gordon's forte either.

Neither back's value is going to stand on rushing efficiency.  Gordon's game will be volume touches, Ekeler's will be situational catches.

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Looks apparent to me Ekeler will still have a major role in this offense due to attrition of injuries piling up.  Hunter Henry, Justin Jackson, Mike Williams, Benjamin and now:

 

(RotoWire) Inman (quad) has been placed on IR. Analysis: With Mike Williams (back) and Travis Benjamin (hip) out this past weekend, Inman's profile in the Chargers offense was set to expand in Week 4. Unfortunately, he suffered a fourth-quarter injury that's landed him on IR, leaving the team with Keenan Allen, Geremy Davis and Andre Patton as its top healthy wideouts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  (RotoWire) Inman (quad) has been placed on IR. Analysis: With Mike Williams (back) and Travis Benjamin (hip) out this past weekend, Inman's profile in the Chargers offense was set to expand in Week 4. Unfortunately, he suffered a fourth-quarter injury that's landed him on IR, leaving the team with Keenan Allen, Geremy Davis and Andre Patton as its top healthy wideouts.

 

 

 

   

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Neither back's value is going to stand on rushing efficiency.  Gordon's game will be volume touches, Ekeler's will be situational catches.

I agree. Which is why I posted what I did because someone was posting about YPC for Ekeler like it mattered. Ekeler has a career higher YPC. If that mattered, he would be playing over Gordon.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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Just now, hangin n wangin said:

I agree. Which is why I posted what I did because someone was posting about YPC for Ekeler like it mattered.

I think you're spot on.

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8 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Melvin Gordon has a career YPC of 4.0 and literally just posted his first season over 4.0 last year. I think most people agree who will be the lead back going forward, but YPC haven't exactly been Gordon's forte either.

Sample size means everything. It is much easier to attain that 4.0 ypc on fewer than 200 career carries than it is over years of lead back duties. Someone earlier posted that Ekeler is more than capable of handling bellcow duties after four games of watching him play this season. I didn't know what his stats looked like because, like everyone else, you only pay attention to the fantasy relevant aspects of his production. Can a player of his stature endure the hits that come along with 250 plus carries? Im thinking beyond this season because I dont believe he is a threat to MGIII at all this season. But for those in keeper/dynasty leagues, the question has to be do you have something special? Or will he always be a Darren Sproles like player? The Chargers once had another player like Ekeler in Ronnie Harmon and he never got the chance to be a featured back. He was special with the ball in his hands (San Diego native here but not a Chargers fan). If we move past the back and forth of THIS year and look toward the future, is he someone you would count on for a full time role or will LA (assuming Melvin moves on next season) always pair him with a goal line back capable of picking up the tough yards? It's probably time to move past Melvin vs. Ekeler and make this about Ekeler and his future potential. 

Edited by Fantasy Gooroo

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