Dr Pickem

James Harden 2019-2020 Outlook

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Last year won the Championship in a 2 keeper league .Heading into the year with Harden and Ice Trea as my keepers .Thinking of going Capela and Mitch Robinson as my 12 and 13 picks snake draft. Should easily dominate 3’s assists rebounds blocks and steals .How do you guys think the arrival of Westbrook will effect Hardens numbers this year ? 

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Depends who you think stats will trend down. Harden goes from a pass first PG to a ball dominant PG. 

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26 minutes ago, cheapazn said:

Picking Steph over Harden next year

They'll probably have very similar stats tbh. I think I'd still take Harden.

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On 7/12/2019 at 11:14 AM, miasma16 said:

They'll probably have very similar stats tbh. I think I'd still take Harden.

Steph's gonna get you 49% fg and less to which makes him better per game. Harden might get 33 to 36 a game but steph should be 30 to 33 this year. I'd prefer Steph per game no punt, but he's not as durable as harden so I would take harden before steph. 

1)AD 

2)Harden

3) KAT 

4)Giannis 

5) Steph

6) elite drop off starts here... 

Edited by johnval1362

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Like clockwork Harden continues to get overlooked fantasy-wise. Still only 29 in the middle of his prime. Westbrook won't slow him down in the slightest. He will again finish as the number 1 guy in fantasy. 

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11 hours ago, ssolitare said:

How is AD #1 when he's playing lebron and cousins.

Lebron doesn't take much, if anything from other stars games. Didn't happen with D wade, didn't happen with Kyrie (a couple pts less is basically the same). Definitely not cousins. Lebron is going to get AD and cousins better looks and AD fg% should be higher. AD has been, by far, the best fantasy player period the last 3 year in a per game output. He might get you 26 pts with higher fg% this year, still better than harden at 35 pts. AD is another level of value, the clear #1 every year without question if health and shut down is not a concern. And this year, health is less of a concern than usual since he is playing for a top playoff spot and there is a very small chance of shut down. AD has always been number 1 in fantasy. He doesn't hurt you anywhere and is near elite in every category, although assists will take a dip. 

Theres a chance I would take harden for durability vs AD, but that would be the only reason. I'd take steph before harden too (this year), but durability again so I would go with Harden. Not to knock harden hes still worth $65 but AD is miles away from everyone at #1, mostly because hes a rare combo of big man who doesn't only not hurt you from the line, but helps and gets there often (as a C). Embiid nearly does it too but Embiid 78% which kind of hurts you. AD at like 82% is huge. Durability is always a factor... still #1. 

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I like AD in roto but I like Harden in H2H.  I might even prefer Harden in 8 cat roto.  But I definitely prefer AD in 9 cat roto.  

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3 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

AD is another level of value, the clear #1 every year without question if health and shut down is not a concern. And this year, health is less of a concern than usual since he is playing for a top playoff spot and there is a very small chance of shut down. AD has always been number 1 in fantasy. He doesn't hurt you anywhere and is near elite in every category 

I talked about this last year and everyone disagreed (as per usual) but I still think I'm right (as per usual). Even just going by per game, it's not nearly so cut and dried when we're talking h2h. AD and Harden are 1a and 1b or 1b and 1a. It just depends. 

When you look at cats, it becomes apparent that, when you're talking about H2h, the difference between them isn't really large at all. 

Cats over 3 Z score:

- Harden has three (points, threes, ft%) 

- AD has one (blocks) 

Cats between 2.5 and 3 Z score:

- Harden has one (steals) 

- AD has none 

Cats between 2 and 2.5 Z score:

- Harden has none

- AD has one (rebounds) 

Barely missing out on 2 Z score cats (1.9 +):

- Harden has one (assists) 

- AD has one (points) 

So Harden is undeniably more top heavy: better in the cats he's best in, and there's more of them. 

Then look at their worst Z scores. Harden is - 3.77 in turnovers and - 1.33 in fg%. AD is miles better at -.57 in threes and -.28 in turnovers.  Harden is also undeniably worse in the cats he's bad it.  But if you're punting two things...do you care? He was your first pick, so you made the rest of your picks ignoring/punting those two cats anyway. 

Harden has two average cats (rebounds and blocks), AD has one average (assists) and two above average but not good enough to get listed above (fg% and steals). But Harden is flat out winning you more cats. 

Tldr: last year there was no clear cut #1, even if you were ignoring injuries. How their new teammates affect these two fantasy kings this season, though, remains to be seen. 

 

Edited by Tom Chambers
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Gonna be way too expensive in my auction league.  He's the clear cut #1 in a snake draft though, you're all tripping if you take AD over him

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If you punt FG/To Harden’s last year was the best year ever recorded by BBM (goes back to 2002-2003) even including Curry’s historic year and Westbrook’s best year. 

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4 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

If you punt FG/To Harden’s last year was the best year ever recorded by BBM (goes back to 2002-2003) even including Curry’s historic year and Westbrook’s best year. 

 

I don't understand what Harden has to do to quiet all the discussion about who's the #1 fantasy player lol.  Guy almost averaged a 40 point triple double with 5 threes, 2 steals, and 88ft% a night on 11 shots and he's still being underrated

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5 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

I don't understand what Harden has to do to quiet all the discussion about who's the #1 fantasy player lol.  Guy almost averaged a 40 point triple double with 5 threes, 2 steals, and 88ft% a night on 11 shots and he's still being underrated

Harden won me about 3k last year across three different leagues and in my other leagues the Harden owner was top three in all of them.  I think he was the player most highly correlated to success last season, even if you spent $75 on him in an auction.  Whereas, I also had AD in three leagues and his late season absence cost me in two leagues.  In one roto league I went from way ahead to third due to his missed games. 

 

This season maybe AD has more reason to not sit at the end of the season but I still think he will play under 70 games for maintenance purposes.  Whereas, I surmise people are afraid of Harden losing value due to Westbrook.  The reality is that everyone else on their team is low usage, they could stagger the pair, and they could still have 35%+ usage.   Not to mention if anyone is going to lose value it’s Westbrook.  Although it does cap Harden’s upside and he may not be able to repeat last year.  

 

I still prefer AD in 9 cat roto bc Harden requires a punt FG/To punt to fully unleash his value.  Also, missing a few games isn’t as big of a deal.  But in any H2H format you want your star to play games which means Harden and KAT.  And in any 8 cat format I also prefer Harden.  

 

 

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But what about load management? Look at Rotoworld news: Daryl Morey said that his training staff will have a "very put together plan" on load management for Russell Westbrook and James Harden this upcoming season.

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17 minutes ago, apatas said:

But what about load management? Look at Rotoworld news: Daryl Morey said that his training staff will have a "very put together plan" on load management for Russell Westbrook and James Harden this upcoming season.

 

I just saw that too.  I don't see it being on Kawhi levels though so I wouldn't worry too much

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4 minutes ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

I just saw that too.  I don't see it being on Kawhi levels though so I wouldn't worry too much

It can mean that B2B matches Westbrook plays one and Harden another. It depends how much B2B games Houston have.

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 GM Daryl Morey when asked about load management for Russell Westbrook and James Harden: “Yeah, it always is (part of the strategy). We try not to label it....Yeah, it’ll be a very put together plan by our staff throughout the season to have our guys peak in April.”

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I put very little faith into anything morey says recently.  Harden will likely play whatever he was going to play 75+.  Maybe with Westbrook he can take a few games off for once. 

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I guess Harden might have to be moved into my ever growing list of load management no gos

Westbrook is always a no go for me anyway since I like winning and his percentages are pure killers......

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9 hours ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

I guess Harden might have to be moved into my ever growing list of load management no gos

Westbrook is always a no go for me anyway since I like winning and his percentages are pure killers......

Only thing being managed will be Houston's playoff seeding during our fantasy playoffs.

Edited by Auction>Snake
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On 7/12/2019 at 9:34 AM, Dr Pickem said:

Last year won the Championship in a 2 keeper league .Heading into the year with Harden and Ice Trea as my keepers .Thinking of going Capela and Mitch Robinson as my 12 and 13 picks snake draft. Should easily dominate 3’s assists rebounds blocks and steals .How do you guys think the arrival of Westbrook will effect Hardens numbers this year ? 

Lol how are you going to dominate steals when 3 of your 4 players don't even get a steal a game? You're punting steals if that's your first 4. 

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On 7/12/2019 at 1:46 PM, cheapazn said:

Picking Steph over Harden next year

Feels like the Warriors aren't even going to make it to the playoffs. By late-Feb, Steph time -- rest time. IMO.

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On 7/31/2019 at 10:31 AM, Tom Chambers said:

I talked about this last year and everyone disagreed (as per usual) but I still think I'm right (as per usual). Even just going by per game, it's not nearly so cut and dried when we're talking h2h. AD and Harden are 1a and 1b or 1b and 1a. It just depends. 

When you look at cats, it becomes apparent that, when you're talking about H2h, the difference between them isn't really large at all. 

Cats over 3 Z score:

- Harden has three (points, threes, ft%) 

- AD has one (blocks) 

Cats between 2.5 and 3 Z score:

- Harden has one (steals) 

- AD has none 

Cats between 2 and 2.5 Z score:

- Harden has none

- AD has one (rebounds) 

Barely missing out on 2 Z score cats (1.9 +):

- Harden has one (assists) 

- AD has one (points) 

So Harden is undeniably more top heavy: better in the cats he's best in, and there's more of them. 

Then look at their worst Z scores. Harden is - 3.77 in turnovers and - 1.33 in fg%. AD is miles better at -.57 in threes and -.28 in turnovers.  Harden is also undeniably worse in the cats he's bad it.  But if you're punting two things...do you care? He was your first pick, so you made the rest of your picks ignoring/punting those two cats anyway. 

Harden has two average cats (rebounds and blocks), AD has one average (assists) and two above average but not good enough to get listed above (fg% and steals). But Harden is flat out winning you more cats. 

Tldr: last year there was no clear cut #1, even if you were ignoring injuries. How their new teammates affect these two fantasy kings this season, though, remains to be seen. 

 

It's all about pairings and building a working lineup. The z scores are over thinking imo unless you can find combo Z scores that give duo or trios ratings drafted together. Some stats are simply more rare than others. You can draft AD and not punt anything and then just pick up Eric Gordon in the 9th and you make up for hardens easier to find stats. You can't find blocks with high volume scoring anywhere except the first 2 rounds. 

What does harden do all that well that AD can't? Shoot 3s and assists. That's it. FTs more but AD ft in relation to be a C are way more valuable than hardens because you don't need to worry about whichever center after harden drags you down. AD being a great ft% high volume shooter is like kf harden also got you high volume fg%. Think about it. Who can you add late round to make up for hardens fg% TO blocks and rebounds (rbs will drop with WB and .8 blocks is guard good but AD is 2.8). Anyone late round getting you blocks and rebounds are going to crush ft% and hurt harden. Now pair someone with AD who is weak in 3s and assists and you have 2 easy to find stats that will net you a better average between any PAIRING you can find with harden. 

AD + Eric Gordon/Danny green = Harden + ? 

Whoever you add for harden side would need to be picked earlier in the draft and the earlier the draft the more focused you should be on finding value not building an early punt which may not be necessary. Whatever harden gets you, its already with negative 2 stats. AD gets you everything and the extra 5 pts a game and 4 3s aren't better than the blocks rbs and high volume fg% from AD. You simply don't find those rare stats anywhere. 

That being said if you punt fg and to Harden is the best player for sure but I'm more of a 7 cat guy with a SEMI punt for the other 2. Gotta beat the other punters as well. I think a punt assist build with AD is better than a punt fg to build with harden. 

I'd still pick harden for durability though lol... 

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5 hours ago, MysticPeak said:

Feels like the Warriors aren't even going to make it to the playoffs. By late-Feb, Steph time -- rest time. IMO.

Which of the Kings, Wolves, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Mavs, Suns, Thunder, Spurs are going to get in the playoffs ahead of the warriors, assuming no health issues 

You need two of those teams to make it ahead of the warriors 

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