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Jusuf Nurkic 2019-2020 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season 2020 automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2021.]

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, justaguy said:

He wasnt playing 30 minutes last year when he was 15/10 with great percentages and stocks. As a top 40 guy. He needs 20 minutes to become rosterable in 12 teams and 26ish minutes to be a league winner.

There is a chance 

Ok there is a chance, is it worth taking when you are in the fantasy playoffs?

 

2 minutes ago, MWon said:

Yeah, really not sold on the guy.  He's a FA in all leagues but I don't have IL room and while I'm safe for POs, I just dunno if he'll do more than a stream spot or a hot FA.

The problem is that if you're considering a pickup, you need to move quickly.  Even if the majority of folks avoid him in your league, there's always that maverick guy who swoops for upside just on name and reputation alone.

 

Well then again, last year he wasn't coming off a serious, gruesome injury either.  Or dealing with a white-hot Whiteside.  And he's also going to be heavily, heavily managed, not just in minutes or rest days but in general workload.  Temper your expectations.  Like, a lot.

 

Exactly. Hes coming off a bad injury and hasnt played in a year. Like in most leagues, hes currently a FA atm but do I really want to drop someone on a flier meanwhile holding him throughout next week as well before he plays? Idk.

Edited by Johnnyapplebot

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I personally just added him with my last acquisition for the week even though I have LMA, VanVleet and LaVine out. My playoff starts March 23rd so I hope he gets 20-25 minutes.

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Sure, there's a chance.  But with all the things working against him, it's a huge gamble.  Personally, I try to minimize as much risk as possible during the POs.

The reason we stashed Nurk was because we expected him to return soon after ASB - like late Feb, where we could've given him a week or two to gauge whether he'd be good and ready for a full workload, or whether he could actually help fantasy teams.  And it also gives HIM more time to get adjusted to actual NBA games so that after a few weeks, he'd be up to about 20-25 minutes.

The problem is that this is a TOTAL gamble.  I get taking risks prior to the playoffs, but many people's Week 22 playoffs start March 16, a friggin day after he SUPPOSEDLY makes his return.  Given the Blazers play 3 games on that week, what if he plays 8 minutes the first night, rests the second night, and plays about 15 minutes the third night?  That's maybe 23 minutes of Nurk.  Would you rather have that than a streamer spot (for 5-6 games) or hot FA with 4 games?  And bear in mind, if you're wrong, you're basically down a player in your R1 of the playoffs, and could jeopardize your entire fantasy season on that.

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5 minutes ago, bmoney0111 said:

I personally just added him with my last acquisition for the week even though I have LMA, VanVleet and LaVine out. My playoff starts March 23rd so I hope he gets 20-25 minutes.

This is fine because you actually have a 3 game stretch to see him play before it really counts.

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12 minutes ago, bmoney0111 said:

I personally just added him with my last acquisition for the week even though I have LMA, VanVleet and LaVine out. My playoff starts March 23rd so I hope he gets 20-25 minutes.

 

Heh, to add on to what JohnnyApplebot said, (as a LMA/Lavine owner myself), your advantage is also that you'll very likely have a free IL soon.  Lavine's only supposed to miss about a week, FVV should be back in the next game or so, and LMA is just D2D.  And again, you have 2 weeks before your own POs, so you can afford to wait on both your own players and on Nurk.  I guess for Week 22 people, it's more difficult to make a decision.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, MWon said:

Sure, there's a chance.  But with all the things working against him, it's a huge gamble.  Personally, I try to minimize as much risk as possible during the POs.

The reason we stashed Nurk was because we expected him to return soon after ASB - like late Feb, where we could've given him a week or two to gauge whether he'd be good and ready for a full workload, or whether he could actually help fantasy teams.  And it also gives HIM more time to get adjusted to actual NBA games so that after a few weeks, he'd be up to about 20-25 minutes.

The problem is that this is a TOTAL gamble.  I get taking risks prior to the playoffs, but many people's Week 22 playoffs start March 16, a friggin day after he SUPPOSEDLY makes his return.  Given the Blazers play 3 games on that week, what if he plays 8 minutes the first night, rests the second night, and plays about 15 minutes the third night?  That's maybe 23 minutes of Nurk.  Would you rather have that than a streamer spot (for 5-6 games) or hot FA with 4 games?  And bear in mind, if you're wrong, you're basically down a player in your R1 of the playoffs, and could jeopardize your entire fantasy season on that.

Or you could just keep him on your IL, see how he pans out the first 3 games, and then drop towards the latter part of the week if he flops. The only downside is that you cant make waiver moves while a healthy player sits on your IL. Sitting pretty with my roster while observing Nurk the first half of week 1 of playoffs is worth it to me - given his immense upside.

 

Scared money dont make money 🤙

Edited by justaguy

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Sure, I get that.  I think the disconnect here is that you're talking about the absolute best case scenario:

Completely safe in the PO hunt with top seed, available IL, no other available players to use IL on.  Sure.  In that case, stash him.  I'm not making the argument that you shouldn't stash if you have nothing to lose.

The reality is that not everyone has that luxury.  Not everyone's safe in 1st place, and very, very few people have free ILs given all the injuries out there (I've got anywhere from at least 2-5 injuries on each of my teams).  

As I said before, expectations should be tempered.  Nurk is NOT the same player he was last year.  Reiterating once again, to imagine he could be Top 40 with fewer minutes, heavy restrictions, returning from a gruesome injury, not having played actual basketball in over a year, battling a white-hot Whiteside for minutes, and potential for reinjury given he had a setback with his leg that sidelined him even longer in practice, that'd be ludicrous... All the factors I mentioned are important on their own.  Combined, it's downright terrifying. You simply can't gloss over them and expect him to be fantasy-helping, let alone fantasy-saving.

"Scared money", I prefer "Smart money".  Fantasy, like everything else in the world that requires risk (e.g. stocks), demands you be careful and make calculated decisions.  Obviously, if you're a billionaire, go ahead and invest in something stupid without recourse, if we're to extend the analogy.  But if you don't have the wherewithal to spend, it's unwise to gamble when this decision could end your life (fantasy season).  If you miss on Nurk, what happens?  You grab a safe flier/hot FA, stream, and have an end-of-bench glue guy.  If Nurk actually helps, realistically, what are you expecting from him?  He's not gonna be 15/10 every night.  You're not gonna win the playoffs by owning him, or lose by missing him. 

To put it another way, Bazemore and Cam Johnson both have 11 games in Wk 22-24.  Neither are flashy, but both are fairly safe and are reliable options who can give Top 100-150 value and are available on many people's wires (Baze is 30% owned, Cam 12%).  Nurk has 10 games in Wk 22-24.  He likely won't play all of them given Wk 23 has a B2B in it, and might not even play 9 if he rests randomly/if the Blazers fall out of the playoffs. I'd much rather have the certainty knowing I've got reliable production when it really matters.

27 minutes ago, justaguy said:

The only downside is that you cant make waiver moves while a healthy player sits on your IL.

 

I've done that before, and I'm actually considering doing it to prevent opponents from grabbing Nurk (ethically questionable, but I think it's fine).

But I wouldn't ignore that drawback.  There are many times that I've needed to grab a hot FA and lost him because my IL was blocked by a healthy player, or when I wanted to stream, but needed to drop TWO players instead of one because my IL was blocked, meaning I needed to drop my healthy IL player, then wait a day, then make the swap for a streamer, then wait until the next day for that player to contribute (meaning overall, I had to wait two days to activate/use that new player).  It's fine to do in the regular season.  In the playoffs, it can end a playoff run.

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My gameplan is just to keep him stashed in my IL until I get deeper into my playoffs, assuming I get that far

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I have a buy week so my semifinal matchup will be on 23MAR20, a week after he's been back. Is he worth a pickup? Do you guys think his workload will be ramped up in just one week? What kind of stats could I expect from him at that point?

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Pretty much what's already been said.  If you have nobody better to stick in IL it can't hurt.  BUT having expectations for him being anything close to last year is not wise.  Out of basketball for a year, and last year he was the man at center.  Whiteside playing as well as he is dampens the need for Portland to rush him into a heavy workload.  That combined with getting his basketball legs under him starting literally the day before the playoffs does not bode well for him being a valuable fantasy asset.  But again, if you have nothing better to stash on IL, taking a flier doesn't hurt.

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I think at best he’ll be a low end big man ala WCJ. 10/7 with a block or two. Depends on your league size. High risk low to medium reward IMO 

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GOATside is playing amazingly well and this guy is coming off a 1-year layoff, I think ~18 minutes per game is his ceiling.  Not seeing a lot of fantasy value here

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Why is he DaytoDay on espn??? It will be another week until his debut and i can’t make moves if he’s still in the IL slot when he’s not Out

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The potential is there. Let's not forget when Nurk started out his career. Just him playing 15 to 20 mins brought him some decent value. The restrictions will be there but the Blazers going all win mode they may have to play him. What's the point of Whiteside getting his stats if they're still losing.

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12 hours ago, Austin_Rivers said:

The potential is there. Let's not forget when Nurk started out his career. Just him playing 15 to 20 mins brought him some decent value. The restrictions will be there but the Blazers going all win mode they may have to play him. What's the point of Whiteside getting his stats if they're still losing.

The players alongside Whiteside have been the problem

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great to see him with the team! I hope it was worth holding on to him when my Playoffs begin 

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On 3/6/2020 at 3:28 PM, beejay6020 said:

I think at best he’ll be a low end big man ala WCJ. 10/7 with a block or two. Depends on your league size. High risk low to medium reward IMO 


I am super confused. In what leagues or settings 10/7/2blks is consider a low end big. 

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He is probably the best versatile Big after Jokic and can contribute in every category, I guess he can produce something like 12/8/3 with 2 stocks in 25 minutes once he's back in game shape, last year he averaged 15/10/3.5/1.4/1, so that numbers are not made up.  

Tell me somebody who could give you that upside from the wire besides him....

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3 hours ago, KB24MVP said:

He is probably the best versatile Big after Jokic and can contribute in every category, I guess he can produce something like 12/8/3 with 2 stocks in 25 minutes once he's back in game shape, last year he averaged 15/10/3.5/1.4/1, so that numbers are not made up.  

Tell me somebody who could give you that upside from the wire besides him....

Nobody can give that upside. Dudes a bull. I’m thinking he’ll be back on those 22nd,23rd games right in there. 

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I was also considering adding him in my 9 cat league, 12 teams, over guys like Dedmon or Trey Lyles but not sure about it. I have LMA and tried keeping Lyles as a back up, so far so good, but I'm not sure if after such injury and how Hassan is playing worth the gamble (we dont have playoffs so it's a different risk).

How do you see it, guys? Apologies if this question belongs more to AC forum

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So any opinions on this guy? He’ll probably be just as rusty as Whiteside when the season picks back up. I hope it doesn’t turn into a Brooklyn Nets time share situation.

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2 hours ago, BennyBackwood said:

So any opinions on this guy? He’ll probably be just as rusty as Whiteside when the season picks back up. I hope it doesn’t turn into a Brooklyn Nets time share situation.

Depends on how he looks out there. Portland is obviously better with a healthy nurkik over a healthy whiteside, as seen by last years #3 seed and playoff win. As soon as its possible for nurk to overtake whiteside it will happen. But to prevent injury, yeah it will probably be a timeshare. 

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Man he really was killing it in the bubble. Coming from the injury and having Whiteside there didnt effect him at all. Does his 8 game performance up his stock to a 3rd round guy next season? He still has rest of playoffs too. Its gonna be interesting to see how he does against Davis and Howard. Im hoping for an upset.

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