Fantasyscrub

Nikola Jokic 2019-2020 Outlook

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Big Honey is back for another season of triple doubles and 3 point games ;)

Prediction: 19-11-8, 1.5 threes, 1.5 steals

I think there will be a tick down in his scoring because of guys like MPJ, Beasley, Morris, and a healthy Barton.  Still, fully expecting him to reach his peak this season

 

 

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2 hours ago, Rainsford said:

My guess

17.5 / 8/ 7 / 1.5 / 1.2 / .7 

 

why the huge dip in stats?  I still think he'll average 20-10 or close to it

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I think they got more help this year and will look to play a little differently if they want to advance further in the playoffs.

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Between October & November = Owners raging for lack of scoring, which you shouldn't draft him for that to begin with. It's gonna happen again more than ever. Prepare for the buy lows and low balling.

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Another year of people downplaying the Joker. The Nuggets finished second in the west playing directly through him and that's not going to change. Do not expect a stat dip at all.

21/11/8 on 50% shooting

 

He's gotten better every season and the Nuggets record has gotten better every season and people are talking stat dips. Jokic finished 29th in the league in usage % and only 2.5% more usage then Jamal Murray. If the nuggets focus on changing that a little so Joker has the ball a few %s more then Murray we could see a larger uptick in stats.

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17 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

thinking of paring Jokic with Beal, Drummond, and Trae.  Thoughts?

I doubt you can get Jokic, Beal and Drummond on same team. 2 of them is probable. I see them going no later then Round 2.

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Jokic is an odd case bc he’s underrated by the public and overrated in fantasy.  Idk how someone who has finished 12/13/18 in three years can be a consensus top 6-7 pick.  Imo he’s capped by relatively low scoring for a first round pick, relatively low blocks for a big, and relatively high TO for a big.  I agree that his near 20/10/10 potential is intriguing and it’s funny that he gets more assists/steals than Lillard. Plus, he’s durable.  I like him but I think he’s overrated if he’s consistently taken 6/7 when he’s never hit that rank. 

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

Jokic is an odd case bc he’s underrated by the public and overrated in fantasy.  Idk how someone who has finished 12/13/18 in three years can be a consensus top 6-7 pick.  Imo he’s capped by relatively low scoring for a first round pick, relatively low blocks for a big, and relatively high TO for a big.  I agree that his near 20/10/10 potential is intriguing and it’s funny that he gets more assists/steals than Lillard. Plus, he’s durable.  I like him but I think he’s overrated if he’s consistently taken 6/7 when he’s never hit that rank. 

Jokic is probably my 6-7 pick along with Paul george

i personally don’t know who else to take, I’m not taking embiid, not taking kawhi just to be safe , rather not take Damian 6th. 

There really isn’t much other options

 

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6 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Jokic is probably my 6-7 pick along with Paul george

i personally don’t know who else to take, I’m not taking embiid, not taking kawhi just to be safe , rather not take Damian 6th. 

There really isn’t much other options

 

I agree about that part.  There’s a consensus top 5.  Then personally I’d take Lillard.  He’s the only player who has been top six the last two months of in each of the past three years.  Plus his durability.  After that who knows.  But that’s more of a reflection of a lack of options than it is where Jokic finishes.  I’d put his over/under for per game at around 10. 

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7 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Jokic is an odd case bc he’s underrated by the public and overrated in fantasy.  Idk how someone who has finished 12/13/18 in three years can be a consensus top 6-7 pick.  Imo he’s capped by relatively low scoring for a first round pick, relatively low blocks for a big, and relatively high TO for a big.  I agree that his near 20/10/10 potential is intriguing and it’s funny that he gets more assists/steals than Lillard. Plus, he’s durable.  I like him but I think he’s overrated if he’s consistently taken 6/7 when he’s never hit that rank. 

 

It’s his value as a building block IMO, those selecting him in the first won’t lose out on assists while getting the 20/10 + high fg that they would’ve wanted from a big + out  of position steals and hitting a three.

So no more being compelled to grab Treys, Rubios or Teagues in the mid/ mid-late rounds just for the sake of assists.

You can build a cohesive team via BPA for a few rounds without losing out regardless of people sniping your targets. From what i’ve seen, Jokic teams are defined by their 2nd and 3rd pick rather than Jokic himself.

He’s essentially RWB with only 1 below average efficiency category (TO) and easy to build around.

Just my 2c

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18 minutes ago, Mikhov said:

 

It’s his value as a building block IMO, those selecting him in the first won’t lose out on assists while getting the 20/10 + high fg that they would’ve wanted from a big + out  of position steals and hitting a three.

So no more being compelled to grab Treys, Rubios or Teagues in the mid/ mid-late rounds just for the sake of assists.

You can build a cohesive team via BPA for a few rounds without losing out regardless of people sniping your targets. From what i’ve seen, Jokic teams are defined by their 2nd and 3rd pick rather than Jokic himself.

He’s essentially RWB with only 1 below average efficiency category (TO) and easy to build around.

Just my 2c

Yeah I agree with that.  I just don't see him hitting his ADP on a per game basis.  But I'm realizing that can't be said of anyone else there either.  Maybe just fade drafting past 5th in snake 😜

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Imo, if your league has games limit then per game stats are important.  If not, total value rules and Jokic finished 7th last year per game. That is why he is easily top 10 pick

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He finished 7th in totals and that's with Durant and Vuc ahead of him.  However, Curry, AD, Giannis were behind him and I'm assuming most people would prefer those three.  On that basis, take out two, add three then he'd project at 8th this year in totals.  I totally understand that.  What I don't understand is how he can be considered top 5 in either per game or totals when his finishes have been 13/12/18.  He doesn't project to make a significant leap, if anything Denver is stacked af.  

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Posted (edited)

Joker's offseason effort pretty intense!

 

Edited by doomz

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7 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

Jokic has improved every single season.  I expect that trend to continue.

No, he hasn’t.  Last three years in per game: 18,12,13.  I’d say he hit his peak and plateaued.  If you’re using totals it’s true he kept improving because he played 80 games last year.  But I don’t foresee him playing 85 this year to continue that trend. 

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Underrated part of the Jokic experience is he usually starts slow and averages 76 games played. Here are his 9 cat rankings for total value over the past 3 months of the year for the last 3 season starting with 2016/17: 9, 3, 7. This makes him as safe of a pick in the second half of 1st round as anyone with Denver fighting for seeding at the top of western conference.

Is this data cherry picked? Sure is, but it also coincides nicely with H2H playoffs and the last portion of the regular season. His only negative category is turnovers while being slightly low on BLK for a center. He allows you to keep your draft wide open while giving you an option to punt blocks, TO, or points and not have to overdraft a PG for assist. I agree there is not much upside, but if Denver is a better team is there a chance for a reduction in TO or incremental gains in efficiency/3s due to more open looks? 

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17 minutes ago, BMart519 said:

Underrated part of the Jokic experience is he usually starts slow and averages 76 games played. Here are his 9 cat rankings for total value over the past 3 months of the year for the last 3 season starting with 2016/17: 9, 3, 7. This makes him as safe of a pick in the second half of 1st round as anyone with Denver fighting for seeding at the top of western conference.

Is this data cherry picked? Sure is, but it also coincides nicely with H2H playoffs and the last portion of the regular season. His only negative category is turnovers while being slightly low on BLK for a center. He allows you to keep your draft wide open while giving you an option to punt blocks, TO, or points and not have to overdraft a PG for assist. I agree there is not much upside, but if Denver is a better team is there a chance for a reduction in TO or incremental gains in efficiency/3s due to more open looks? 

I agree with everything, except that in the modern era 1 three is below median. 

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JOKERS STAY SLEEPING

Coming for that #1 seed & MVP trophy

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20 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I agree with everything, except that in the modern era 1 three is below median. 

There were approximately 9 players that were PF and/or C eligible in the top 150 per game that had more 3's per game than Jokic (ignoring SF/PF in yahoo since those guys are mostly wings). I eliminated Maxi Kleber, Bjelica, and Portis because you are probably not drafting those guys in the top 150 this year. 

I agree his Z score puts him slightly below the median of all players, but he is top 10 at his position which is way above the positional median and of greater importance in 2 Center leagues. Not that any of us play in those 😉 

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6 minutes ago, BMart519 said:

There were approximately 9 players that were PF and/or C eligible in the top 150 per game that had more 3's per game than Jokic (ignoring SF/PF in yahoo since those guys are mostly wings). I eliminated Maxi Kleber, Bjelica, and Portis because you are probably not drafting those guys in the top 150 this year. 

I agree his Z score puts him slightly below the median of all players, but he is top 10 at his position which is way above the positional median and of greater importance in 2 Center leagues. Not that any of us play in those 😉 

I know.  But you can’t pick and choose what you focus on...well you can but I don’t advise it lol.  If you want to say Jokic has top 10 threes for a big then you have to compare his blocks to other bigs selected early and admit his blocks are very poor for a first round big.  Punt block territory.  Or you can compare him against the the median, which I chose to do Esp in roto, and say his blocks are around the median and his threes are below median.  What you can’t do (without being a charlatan) is say his threes are top 10 for a big and his blocks are above median because then you’re using a different standard each time.  

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