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Dejounte Murray 2019-2020 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Damn that's way too high, even if you're punting assists / 3's / or points.  He's going all over the place, I wouldn't draft him until about pick 100 or later, but I think I'm starting to prefer White around the same pick as more of a 1/1/1 guy with more assist / points potential.  

I don’t like either of those guys even though it seems like my type.  I think one of them will be good but the other will be trash and it’s too hard to predict which one. 

 

Or or it’s a timeshare and neither exceed ADP.  You could pick both in the later rounds, cuff them, and drop the worse of the two....

Edited by StifleTower2

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 I think his floor is top 80. Why? He is the  future PG for the Spurs, 25-32 minutes per game are guaranteed despite Pop being the coach.   Also, Pop likes his defence and  Murray was All Defensive 2nd team.

  He is  not a fancy pick but  he contributes.   And if his shot has improved (see video above). , watch out. I don't have time to calculate all the numbers, here are some stats for 29 games  in 2017/18 season when he played 25+ minutes:

1.8 steals, 0.58 blocks, 4.17 ast, 8.8 reb, 44fg%.   Steals are elite (Kawhi was also at 1.8), and rebounds are elite for a guard

These are  basically Marcus Smart numbers from last year.

Please discuss why Murray should not be drafted in 60-90 range 😀

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

 I think his floor is top 80. Why? He is the  future PG for the Spurs, 25-32 minutes per game are guaranteed despite Pop being the coach.   Also, Pop likes his defence and  Murray was All Defensive 2nd team.

  He is  not a fancy pick but  he contributes.   And if his shot has improved (see video above). , watch out. I don't have time to calculate all the numbers, here are some stats for 29 games  in 2017/18 season when he played 25+ minutes:

1.8 steals, 0.58 blocks, 4.17 ast, 8.8 reb, 44fg%.   Steals are elite (Kawhi was also at 1.8), and rebounds are elite for a guard

These are  basically Marcus Smart numbers from last year.

Please discuss why Murray should not be drafted in 60-90 range 😀

 

 

 

60 is way too high for a player that was injured the entire year and hasn't shown offensive prowess in the limited time he's had so far.  BUT, I agree with a lot of the above.  He's the youngest All NBA defensive team ever.  So I'm not worried about the minutes.  The stats he previously posted assumes he comes back healthy and is able to contribute at a high level.  Any improvement is not guaranteed, but I do expect improvement.  Because despite the nice stats you listed, what does that equate to?  Not top 60.  If he can take the next leap and start hitting more 3's and dishing a few more assists...and his steal rate has to increase to get to 1.8.  His upside is 2 steals / game so I can see that.  But there's no value there if you pick him at 60.  90, ok fine.  

 

12 points / 7 rebounds / 3.5 assists / 1.5 steals / 0.6 blocks / 1 three.  That's very Larry Nance - ish!  

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37 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

60 is way too high for a player that was injured the entire year and hasn't shown offensive prowess in the limited time he's had so far.  BUT, I agree with a lot of the above.  He's the youngest All NBA defensive team ever.  So I'm not worried about the minutes.  The stats he previously posted assumes he comes back healthy and is able to contribute at a high level.  Any improvement is not guaranteed, but I do expect improvement.  Because despite the nice stats you listed, what does that equate to?  Not top 60.  If he can take the next leap and start hitting more 3's and dishing a few more assists...and his steal rate has to increase to get to 1.8.  His upside is 2 steals / game so I can see that.  But there's no value there if you pick him at 60.  90, ok fine.  

 

12 points / 7 rebounds / 3.5 assists / 1.5 steals / 0.6 blocks / 1 three.  That's very Larry Nance - ish!  

8.9 points / 2.9 rebounds / 4.0 assists / 1.8 steals /0.4 blocks / 1.6 three  - Marcus Smart numbers from last season

11.9 points / 8.8 rebounds / 4.17 assists / 1.8 steals /  0.58 blocks /  0.13 three - Dejounte Murray numbers from 2018/19 when he played 25+ minutes

29 games - average around 29 minutes per game.

 

Why do you expect  his steals to go down to 1.5?    Would you draft Smart before Murray and when?

 

I am big believer in 3rd year leap if player shows   promise.   Murray  could be next year Siakam :)

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1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

8.9 points / 2.9 rebounds / 4.0 assists / 1.8 steals /0.4 blocks / 1.6 three  - Marcus Smart numbers from last season

11.9 points / 8.8 rebounds / 4.17 assists / 1.8 steals /  0.58 blocks /  0.13 three - Dejounte Murray numbers from 2018/19 when he played 25+ minutes

29 games - average around 29 minutes per game.

 

Why do you expect  his steals to go down to 1.5?    Would you draft Smart before Murray and when?

 

I am big believer in 3rd year leap if player shows   promise.   Murray  could be next year Siakam :)

 

I agree but we're also assuming he comes back at the same level after a year off of serious knee injury.  I'm not saying it can't happen, just pointing out reasons to be cautious.  Picking him at 60 or even 70 is a bad idea imo.  Same with Smart.  I wouldn't take him at 60 or even 70.  I said 1.5 steals to be cautiously optimistic as his floor.  I also said he could get 2 steals / game.  

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It's torn ACL and many players have comeback at 100% ( Lowry, Gallo,  Rubio, Rose, Lavine,...)   He will be 100% health wise

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14 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

It's torn ACL and many players have comeback at 100% ( Lowry, Gallo,  Rubio, Rose, Lavine,...)   He will be 100% health wise

 

I hope so. I traded for him in dynasty.

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2 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

It's torn ACL and many players have comeback at 100% ( Lowry, Gallo,  Rubio, Rose, Lavine,...)   He will be 100% health wise

Rose? Are you serious? Rose was never anywhere near the same player after his ACL injury. LaVine was probably the worst player in the NBA the year after he injured his ACL. Gallinari took 2 years to be back to 100%. What a strange list to support your theory of him being back to 100%. 

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2 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I hope so. I traded for him in dynasty.

Hope so I also have him

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2 hours ago, sixers11 said:

Rose? Are you serious? Rose was never anywhere near the same player after his ACL injury. LaVine was probably the worst player in the NBA the year after he injured his ACL. Gallinari took 2 years to be back to 100%. What a strange list to support your theory of him being back to 100%. 

 "LaVine was probably the worst player in the NBA the year after he injured his ACL" - his ACL injury was in February  2017.   Last year he  averaged almost 24 pts and had  best season in his career.   Gallo had other injuries after ACL.  Check your facts 😀

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55 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

 "LaVine was probably the worst player in the NBA the year after he injured his ACL" - his ACL injury was in February  2017.   Last year he  averaged almost 24 pts and had  best season in his career.   Gallo had other injuries after ACL.  Check your facts 😀

Huh? Lavine shot .380 the season after he tore his Acl.  He looked like he had not regained his athleticism at all yet. He was terrible. It wasnt until his 2nd season back that he averaged 24 points. Major injuries raise the likelihood of more injuries which is what happened with Gallinari.  I really think the spurs ease DJ back in this year.  No back to backs and 26-28 mins per game. They have a deep backcourt and will have trouble finding minutes for everyone. I really think White is the better player anyway and Pop seems to like him.

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1 hour ago, sixers11 said:

Huh? Lavine shot .380 the season after he tore his Acl.  He looked like he had not regained his athleticism at all yet. He was terrible. It wasnt until his 2nd season back that he averaged 24 points. Major injuries raise the likelihood of more injuries which is what happened with Gallinari.  I really think the spurs ease DJ back in this year.  No back to backs and 26-28 mins per game. They have a deep backcourt and will have trouble finding minutes for everyone. I really think White is the better player anyway and Pop seems to like him.

Agree with this, a lot of players struggle a bit in their first season post ACL (a lot comes down to how quickly the turn-around is now IMO).

Rubio: ACL in rookie year - 2nd season he saw a dip in dimes 3Pt% (29%🤮) everything else stayed about the same (when you'd expect a 2nd year player to improve).
Jabari Parker: never the same, but he's torn the same ACL twice?! poor dude! It's reported that the post surgery ACL is stronger than the original ligament. 
Dinwiddie: Struggled in his rookie year and 2nd year (after late college ACL tear - and meniscus and MCL injuries at the same time - he did a job!) not until his 3rd year did he really start to show his value.
Gallinari: Miss a whole season, struggled in his comback year all, all his stats dropped by about 20% and also struggled with injuries that season and the next, but hey it's Gallinari, struggling with injuries is his Modis Operandi
Chris Webber: Saw a 20% dip in stats and efficiency after his 2003 ACL tear, wasn't until 2 years later he started to get back to where he was pre-injury, then decline with father time after that.
Derrick Rose: We all know how that went. Not good.
Rondo: Didn't do too bad in '14 after his ACL tear, but there was a dip (and got worse the next season). 2 years later in Sac he was back to close to 12 & 12.

All in all, I'd say keep your break out fantasies in check for Murray this season. Wouldn't be surprised if they were really cautious with his minutes as he is a big part of the Spurs future and right now they are loaded in the back court. I think next year might be the year for Murray's big rise.

 

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Gonna avoid this kid this year.

Still, I'm going to be all over him in 20-21. I seriously believe this kid has the potential to become a Top 50 player in his prime when everything is said and done. But not just now...

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On 8/12/2019 at 8:07 PM, hipriest69 said:

 

None, and neither will the Spurs. 

 

Derrick White 36.1% career three point percentage. 

Dejounte Murray 31.5% career three point percentage.  

I truly Derrick White will improve a lot after this summer's team USA experience. I mean, he is respectful 3pt shooter. 

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As I already said Murray is one of the hardest players to predict how many minutes he gets. Also not sure about stats. Everything inside TOP100 looks risky but can be worth of it.

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On 8/29/2019 at 10:26 PM, Jake the snake said:

Agree with this, a lot of players struggle a bit in their first season post ACL (a lot comes down to how quickly the turn-around is now IMO).

Rubio: ACL in rookie year - 2nd season he saw a dip in dimes 3Pt% (29%🤮) everything else stayed about the same (when you'd expect a 2nd year player to improve).
Jabari Parker: never the same, but he's torn the same ACL twice?! poor dude! It's reported that the post surgery ACL is stronger than the original ligament. 
Dinwiddie: Struggled in his rookie year and 2nd year (after late college ACL tear - and meniscus and MCL injuries at the same time - he did a job!) not until his 3rd year did he really start to show his value.
Gallinari: Miss a whole season, struggled in his comback year all, all his stats dropped by about 20% and also struggled with injuries that season and the next, but hey it's Gallinari, struggling with injuries is his Modis Operandi
Chris Webber: Saw a 20% dip in stats and efficiency after his 2003 ACL tear, wasn't until 2 years later he started to get back to where he was pre-injury, then decline with father time after that.
Derrick Rose: We all know how that went. Not good.
Rondo: Didn't do too bad in '14 after his ACL tear, but there was a dip (and got worse the next season). 2 years later in Sac he was back to close to 12 & 12.

All in all, I'd say keep your break out fantasies in check for Murray this season. Wouldn't be surprised if they were really cautious with his minutes as he is a big part of the Spurs future and right now they are loaded in the back court. I think next year might be the year for Murray's big rise.

 

 

The great thing about next year is that he'll be a free agent and will either re-sign with Spurs, which would be good for him, or he signs elsewhere to get major minutes leading a team, which would probably be even better.  

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Kid has some upside potential. He is a true mystery box having missed the full year with the ACL. In preseason, Pop is playing him as the unquestioned starter, with White only playing backup PG. His 3p stroke looks legit.

My line:

14 points, 0.8 3pm, 5 boards, 5 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.5 blks, on 44%FG/78%FT

IF he really hits 3s, that can go way up. 

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21 minutes ago, hornrimmed_rambis said:

Kid has some upside potential. He is a true mystery box having missed the full year with the ACL. In preseason, Pop is playing him as the unquestioned starter, with White only playing backup PG. His 3p stroke looks legit.

My line:

14 points, 0.8 3pm, 5 boards, 5 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.5 blks, on 44%FG/78%FT

IF he really hits 3s, that can go way up. 


that line is EASILY top 75. I hope you’re right.  Snagged him at pick 102 8th round 

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If today's contract doesn't underline it for you, he is Pop's lead PG for the next several years. 

In other news: he just spent the last year re-working his shot from the foundation up, with Chip Engelland, the legendary player development coach who fixed Tony Parker's and Kawhi's shots. 

New form is apparent here, at 1:00 and 1:40. He is shooting from 3 feet behind the line, with confidence. In the limited preseason minutes, his per-36 is 17 points/ 7 rebs/ 7 assists with 1.3 3pm and 2.3 steals. Just a credible 3 will keep defenses honest. He is not going to be Steph, but 1 3pm a game is not out of the question.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, hornrimmed_rambis said:

If today's contract doesn't underline it for you, he is Pop's lead PG for the next several years. 

In other news: he just spent the last year re-working his shot from the foundation up, with Chip Engelland, the legendary player development coach who fixed Tony Parker's and Kawhi's shots. 

New form is apparent here, at 1:00 and 1:40. He is shooting from 3 feet behind the line, with confidence. In the limited preseason minutes, his per-36 is 17 points/ 7 rebs/ 7 assists with 1.3 3pm and 2.3 steals. Just a credible 3 will keep defenses honest. He is not going to be Steph, but 1 3pm a game is not out of the question.

 

 

SALIVATING

 

He's also going to be fresh and looking to make up for lost time for last year.

 

Really excited for this kid.

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Monster season coming. 
 

Pop gonna unleash this kid this season. His MIP award is already 1 year overdue. 
 

I remember Klaw was supposed to be a defensive specialist. And he became the best 2 way player in the league. Dejounte definitely the next Pop project. 
 

 

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I'm glad we drafted a couple of weeks ago because I got him at 125. He's going to be good to this year. 

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