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Emmanuel Sanders 2019 Outlook


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With 3 new reports on Sanders in 3 days I felt it was time.  All reports thus far fair well for him being ready by week 1, to what extent however, is a different story.  Coming back from an Achilles, especially for a player of his style, is no easy task and can potentially lead to a drastic decrease in performance.  However... in the event he can return to form, I just wanted to drop this here and begin the discussion.

 

Believe it or not, Sanders actually had the 19th highest WR PPG average last year. He only made it through 12 games due to his 2nd year dealing with an injury.  Injuries are a concern, compounded further by his age (32 this year).

On the other hand, Joe Flacco is a considerable upgrade not only to Sanders, but the team/offense as a whole.
Sanders through 2014-2016 averaged:
138 targets, 85 catches, 1,190 yards, 6.67 TDs, 204 fantasy points, or 13.2 PPG.
Last year before injury through his 12 games played he was on pace for:
131 targets, 94 catches, 1,157 yards, 5.34 TDs, 210 fantasy points, or 13.1 PPG
*Variation of PPG and total FPS is due to games played, as he only played 15 games in '15 & '16.
204-210 fantasy points would have resulted in a 13th overall finish last year.

Sutton doesn't scare me for 2 reasons:
1: He was there last year (I understand growth, development, etc and don't disagree with that logic but...)
2: Sanders best years directly correlate to Demaryius Thomas's best years who operated as a true dominant #1 WR. (I know you're thinking Manning effect and while I don't dispute that at all, do remember Peyton only played for '14 and half of '15.  Oswieler Played 6~8 games in '15, Seimian was '16, and last year was Keenum.  Peyton obviously elevates everyone around him, but Sanders production has survived across all 3 QBs, and let's not pretend 2015 Peyton's and 2014 Peyton are the same person.
 

*All stats based on .5ppg scoring.


Most recent blurbs:

Quote

NFL Network's James Palmer expects Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles') to be "full go" in 2-3 weeks.

Sanders avoided the active/PUP list to begin camp but is still having his snaps rationed. Speaking Thursday, he said he could participate in 11-on-11 drills if he had to. It remains to be seen how much, if any, work Sanders gets in the preseason, but Week 1 is not in doubt.

Jul 18, 2019, 3:11 PM ET

Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles') has avoided the active/PUP list to open Broncos training camp.

That's a huge positive in his recovery from a torn Achilles', but GM John Elway did say Sanders will be eased back into practice slowly. Still, this puts Sanders well on track to be back to 100% for Week 1 where he'll team with Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton to form the Broncos' receiving trio. Tim Patrick will be waiting in the wings should one of the three get hurt.

Jul 17, 2019, 2:11 PM ET

Speaking Wednesday, Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles') said he's "definitely not going to be full go from the jump" in training camp.

Sanders said he expects to be worked in gradually. "I want to be ready for Week 1." This jibes with Sanders' earlier comments. He said two weeks ago that he considers Week 1 "realistic." Time will tell. Sanders appears certain to begin camp on the active/PUP list.

Jul 16, 2019, 3:39 PM ET

 

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Am I the only one not that excited? Jimmy hasn't looked great throwing the ball, and this offense isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. 

Double coverage most of the first half.   Denver demonstrating other weapons need to be accounted for will loosen things up.    Good score for manny week 1 considering.   

Had a 45 yard catch negated on a holding call and a reverse for 19 yards.  Plus a toe tap on the sideline that they called out.  Looked like Flacco was just trying to throw it away and Sanders made a

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

However... in the event he can return to form, I just wanted to drop this here and begin the discussion.

In the case he doesn't return to form, we will of course troll you mercilessly.

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

On the other hand, Joe Flacco is a considerable upgrade not only to Sanders, but the team/offense as a whole.

Yeah right. Slight upgrade at most.

 

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Sutton doesn't scare me for 2 reasons:
1: He was there last year (I understand growth, development, etc and don't disagree with that logic but...)

And? He was a rookie and a rookie playing with a lousy QB. That's hardly a reason. 

 

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2: Sanders best years directly correlate to Demaryius Thomas's best years who operated as a true dominant #1 WR.

??  What does that have to do with Sutton?

I'm actually looking at Sanders late, but I get why many are not.

 

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51 minutes ago, bomont said:
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2: Sanders best years directly correlate to Demaryius Thomas's best years who operated as a true dominant #1 WR.

??  What does that have to do with Sutton?

 

Even if Sutton ends up being every bit as good/productive as Demaryius Thomas... who averaged: (For 2014, 15, and 16)
167 targets, 102 catches, for 1,450 yards... it shouldn't effect Emmanuel Sanders, who was his most productive in that same exact time frame.  (And as stated above, this was not only because of P.Manning, it occurred through 3 different QBs, 4 if we consider P.Manning 2 different people in his final year)

So, Sutton doesn't scare me.  Because even if he becomes a top 12 WR... that's the exact same scenario that Emmanuel Sanders has flourished in previously.  How/why should I consider it a detriment to his potential production this year?  Sanders is not a prototypical WR1 alpha dog, he's never depended on it to be productive before, that's not his game.

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I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist but is there such thing as a partially torn Achilles? I just don't see how he can come back to form when its taken guys 9 years younger, like D'onta Foreman well over a year to come back. Obviously we've yet to see him play but I'll have doubts it was as bad as thought if he comes back and balls out.

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I feel strongly that if I draft Sanders, he'll get hurt early or quickly get phased out.  I feel strongly that if I don't draft Sanders, he'll revert to his healthy 2018 form, at least for a while, and help beat me in a matchup at least once

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26 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Stats dont look that great, sutton has equal targets and better stats. Just asking why? Didnt watch  the game.

Had a 45 yard catch negated on a holding call and a reverse for 19 yards.  Plus a toe tap on the sideline that they called out.  Looked like Flacco was just trying to throw it away and Sanders made a really nice play to get there, but blade of grass or 2 away from in bounds.

Box score vs real eyes.

Absolute steal at his current ADP.  In full point PPR he finished 29th overall last year and only played 12 games.  On a Per game basis he was 19th with 16.1 PPG.
Currently being drafted as WR45 in the 10th round of 12 team PPR leagues.  By what I saw tonight, he's already 100% ready to go and it didn't look like the Bronco's could run the ball to save their life.  Initially I expected a slower return and a snap count to begin the season, but after tonight's game, I think he's full go Week 1 without a doubt.

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20 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Stats dont look that great, sutton has equal targets and better stats. Just asking why? Didnt watch  the game.

 

He looked great. Quick. And had a deep ball called back on a holding. 

Basically, he looks like the same player he was before the injury. 

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12 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

I paired him with Sutton at the 9/10 turn in a 12 man league (picks 108/109)...feel like Sanders is being slept on...

I got him in a fairly-similar spot...pick 127 in a 16-team league with IDP's (which accounted for nine of the picks ahead of him). So he was pick 118 amongst offensive players. I think he can provide ability well above this draft area, and I believe his ADP should climb for drafts that are still to come. 

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I took him in the 7th round of a competitive 12 team PPR league, pick 81 overall, yesterday and the owner just after me was pissed I sniped his pick.

My draft is a live draft, so in person, with no queues for people to use.  Sanders has moved up to 87th overall in FFCalc.  If you really want him, and your league knows what's going on, I wouldn't wait to try and exploit your site rankings.

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On 8/19/2019 at 10:06 PM, bomont said:

Damn! I wish he'd sat out the whole damn pre-season lol  

 

LOL. This was definitely one instance where it paid off watching some preseason games. I'm not sure if I would've been as enthusiastic about him just reading reports about his progress in practice. He looked like the old Sanders.

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11 hours ago, Bluecore said:

Definitely being slept on. Really good football player. Once I heard he was completely healthy I was all over it. Got him in the 7th round of a full ppr

People are definitely sleeping on him. I drafted him in the 11th round Friday in my 10 team PPR league. 

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