Pyschout

Bradley Beal 2019-2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

John Wall isn't coming back this year, and Beal was a first rounder for the Wall-less part of last season (10).  I have high hopes for him this year, but there's a a very good chance that in this new, wide-open NBA, one of 10 contenders tries to open up the treasure coffers for him and the Wizards accept it.  A lot depends on how Beal feels about the organization, but I'm not sure that will even matter if a team on pace for 50 wins figures with him they can get to 55 and get to the Finals, and decides to give the Wizards everything they could possibly want.

I'm still drafting at the turn, though.  Maybe before, considering durability and rest and PG not even starting the season.

Edited by Pyschout
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He wants to be on the Heat so bad. The feeling is mutual, even at the cost of absorbing Wall's contract. In due time.

 

As far as fantasy, in the 12 to 15 range seems fine. Wizards are a hot mess, but he's the only one that's bulletproof. I wanna say Thomas Bryant too sense they prioritize signing him this summer, but you never know with this team.

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For me, I am not drafting him  in 10 to 15  range. Too much  of a risk of shutdown if he stays or lower usage  if he gets traded

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8 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

For me, I am not drafting him  in 10 to 15  range. Too much  of a risk of shutdown if he stays or lower usage  if he gets traded

 

I would say there's a low risk of shutdown unless he's injured.  He played all 82 last year and they weren't anywhere near actual contention.  There is a real risk he's traded, but they just offered him the super max extension, and I believe they want him to be a franchise player for years to come. 

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18 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

For me, I am not drafting him  in 10 to 15  range. Too much  of a risk of shutdown if he stays or lower usage  if he gets traded

Why do you guys love to say this every season now?

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12 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I would say there's a low risk of shutdown unless he's injured.  He played all 82 last year and they weren't anywhere near actual contention.  There is a real risk he's traded, but they just offered him the super max extension, and I believe they want him to be a franchise player for years to come. 

 

To play Devil's Advocate to the long term scenario, it feels like the 3 year, $111M extension they're offering is one of those no-brainer contracts any GM would offer, especially after such a rough few years. It's like a goodwill gesture from the new (former interim, now permanent) GM, but they probably hope Beal turns it down because he wouldn't want to waste his prime on a rebuilding team. Then they can say they tried their best to retain him, but will have to put him on the market, and hope for a number of picks and young guys in return while somehow dumping Wall's contract too.

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7 hours ago, MysticPeak said:

Why do you guys love to say this every season now?

I feel like if we said that for everyone who carries this risk, Beal would still fall in the top 15, right?

"AD is an injury risk"

"PG isn't playing the first month"

"Kawhi is only playing 60 games"

"Embiid is an injury risk"

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8 hours ago, SirMixalot said:

 

To play Devil's Advocate to the long term scenario, it feels like the 3 year, $111M extension they're offering is one of those no-brainer contracts any GM would offer, especially after such a rough few years. It's like a goodwill gesture from the new (former interim, now permanent) GM, but they probably hope Beal turns it down because he wouldn't want to waste his prime on a rebuilding team. Then they can say they tried their best to retain him, but will have to put him on the market, and hope for a number of picks and young guys in return while somehow dumping Wall's contract too.

 

Could be possible.  I listened to the Wiz GM's interview with Woj and I came away with the feeling he's pretty genuine in wanting Beal to stay with the team.  Without him they literally have nothing.  Being in a big market I think they want to still salvage something and not be a complete tanking embarrassment.  Of course he's going to say those things but I'm going to lean toward Beal staying in DC.  I don't think there's anyway they dump Wall's contract, and if they do they're unloading a bunch of draft capital.  I think they do the only thing they can with Wall, which to slow play it, take the loss and salary cap hell, let him get as healthy as possible, develop their youth, and run it back in 2020 and hope for the best with Wall, Beal, Brown, Rui, Bryant as the starting 5, could theoretically be back in the 6th-8th seed in the East.  

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14 hours ago, MysticPeak said:

Why do you guys love to say this every season now?

 

Because both scenarios are logical? - but I would personally still draft him in that range if the bigs I want get picked, he’s a stud.

Have him in that high fg% guard tier along with butler and kyrie 

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On 7/26/2019 at 12:26 PM, hipriest69 said:

 

Could be possible.  I listened to the Wiz GM's interview with Woj and I came away with the feeling he's pretty genuine in wanting Beal to stay with the team.  Without him they literally have nothing.  Being in a big market I think they want to still salvage something and not be a complete tanking embarrassment.  Of course he's going to say those things but I'm going to lean toward Beal staying in DC.  I don't think there's anyway they dump Wall's contract, and if they do they're unloading a bunch of draft capital.  I think they do the only thing they can with Wall, which to slow play it, take the loss and salary cap hell, let him get as healthy as possible, develop their youth, and run it back in 2020 and hope for the best with Wall, Beal, Brown, Rui, Bryant as the starting 5, could theoretically be back in the 6th-8th seed in the East.  

 

Well never mind, he's going to reject the offer and play out this year.  Dude is going to ball out and try to make All-NBA, and will be eligible for super max.  

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50 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Well never mind, he's going to reject the offer and play out this year.  Dude is going to ball out and try to make All-NBA, and will be eligible for super max.  

 

if thats the case warrant a late first early second round pick. Im pretty sure he wants to shed the injury prone label and establish himself an elite player.

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I totally missed super max scenario. Moving back to "draft targets" list

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It's interesting because a trade likely takes him out of 1st round / top 10 / top 5 potential (total value)...and back to the 20ish range.  Denver might be the worst scenario, but maybe not considering they'd have to unload some of their depth in a trade (likely Harris, Beasely, maybe Morris, MPJ...I'm almost certain they'd ask for Morris given their lack of PG depth and his potential to be a quality starting PG on a cheap contract).  Would be bad for Murray too.  

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He's going to be the can't miss player of this coming season and will be on a lot of championship teams.  I honestly see him bringing top 8 value.

Supermax scenario, no John Wall, and depleted wizards roster means he will have a heavy workload ahead of him.

If he can manage to stay healthy, I see him putting up 28-5-6, 2.8 threes, 80% ft, 46%fg, 1.8 steals, 0.8 blocks

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5 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

He's going to be the can't miss player of this coming season and will be on a lot of championship teams.  I honestly see him bringing top 8 value.

Supermax scenario, no John Wall, and depleted wizards roster means he will have a heavy workload ahead of him.

If he can manage to stay healthy, I see him putting up 28-5-6, 2.8 threes, 80% ft, 46%fg, 1.8 steals, 0.8 blocks

Last years blocks look like a huge outlier considering hes 0.4 for his career per game . With that said, 0.8 seems like a stretch.

Everything else I agree with though.

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don't really see 1.8 steals either but he should be solid otherwise

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17 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Last years blocks look like a huge outlier considering hes 0.4 for his career per game . With that said, 0.8 seems like a stretch.

Everything else I agree with though.

 

4 hours ago, taenggg said:

don't really see 1.8 steals either but he should be solid otherwise

 

I don't see the 1.8 steals, in fact I thought last years 1.5 steals were an outlier and am worried that he's likely to revert back to his historical mean of 1 - 1.2 steals / game, which also drops his value a few spots if not more.  

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Yup. Along with that, his ability to be a 1st rounder will also depend on his FT percentage. His FTA should increase to somewhere in the 6-7 range but he's only had two seasons where he shot above 80% at the line. If it drops under 80% thats another few spots. 

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I'm still taking Jokic as my first rounder but I don't see Beal as being too far behind.  Should finish 12-13th overall in the season, if not better.  I have a feeling he will shore up the few holes in his game and have a monster season.

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1 hour ago, taenggg said:

Yup. Along with that, his ability to be a 1st rounder will also depend on his FT percentage. His FTA should increase to somewhere in the 6-7 range but he's only had two seasons where he shot above 80% at the line. If it drops under 80% thats another few spots. 

 

It's little "hidden" things like this that show that there's actually a high level of risk with Beal returning first round value.  But he also offers one of the highest returns, partially in that he is a candidate to play all 82 games.  

 

This reminds me a little bit of Oladipo from last year, who had incredible steal / block / FG numbers the year before which buoyed his value, was picked in the 1st round, couldn't maintain the insanely high level of play, and fell to whatever he fell to before getting injured.  

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53 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

It's little "hidden" things like this that show that there's actually a high level of risk with Beal returning first round value.  But he also offers one of the highest returns, partially in that he is a candidate to play all 82 games.  

 

This reminds me a little bit of Oladipo from last year, who had incredible steal / block / FG numbers the year before which buoyed his value, was picked in the 1st round, couldn't maintain the insanely high level of play, and fell to whatever he fell to before getting injured.  

 

Hard to compare the two as Oladipo had a very injury riddled season.  Beal has as much incentive as anybody in the league to be healthy and put up monster numbers.  

 

Even with the risk of ft% and low stocks, I still see him taken in the first round.  I'd take Vucevic over him if Vuc can replicate what he did last season but besides that, an injured Durant and injury prone Kyrie are leaving a hole in the 1st round.  Harden, Davis, Jokic, Embiid, George, Kawhi, Giannis, Curry, Kat, and Lillard should be taken ahead of him but after that, you're left mulling over people like butler/vucevic/ westbrook/irving/ james.  I'd take Beal over any of those guys.

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A strategy that has worked for me is taking note of who f***s me over the most in my matchups.  Two seasons ago, it was Drummond (who I drafted last year and won my league).  Last season, it was Beal who would consistently destroy me.  I really don't want to be on the receiving end when he puts up lines of 35-6-8 games with 6 threes 

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Posted (edited)
On 7/30/2019 at 1:16 PM, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Hard to compare the two as Oladipo had a very injury riddled season.  Beal has as much incentive as anybody in the league to be healthy and put up monster numbers.  

 

Even with the risk of ft% and low stocks, I still see him taken in the first round.  I'd take Vucevic over him if Vuc can replicate what he did last season but besides that, an injured Durant and injury prone Kyrie are leaving a hole in the 1st round.  Harden, Davis, Jokic, Embiid, George, Kawhi, Giannis, Curry, Kat, and Lillard should be taken ahead of him but after that, you're left mulling over people like butler/vucevic/ westbrook/irving/ james.  I'd take Beal over any of those guys.

 

Was he injured throughout the year last year?  Even if he was what I'm saying is that stats drop off for a number of reasons- whether it be injuries, bad play, other teams adjusting scheme, disgruntlement, new teammates / coaches, deaths outside of the sport, or just plain old regression to the mean.  Dipo's FG plummeted to 40% for months and his blocks disappeared.  Could definitely be from injury, but his insane rate of play from last year was simply not sustainable.  And because those categories dropped (as did his steals, which while still good, was no longer out of this world), it dropped him from 1st round to 53rd on BBM in per game.  Beal likely wouldn't drop that far but the point is that even a SLIGHT drop in his steal rate, FT, or FG towards his historical mean (over a large sample size) could push him from 1st round to mid 20's.  Just pointing out the real risk, the rest is up to you.    

Edited by hipriest69
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Beal will be a phenomenal fantasy season player, maybe top 5. I'm thinking 27 8 and 6 with a steal 3 3s 3.5 tos and 46% fg but I'm still staying the hell away unless I can somehow get him 2nd round. No chance wizards are making the playoffs and that means that if he breaks a nail, stubs his toe, the team will shut him down rest of season post all star break. Nothing like a top 5 player being less valuable than Rajon rondo. I'll be staying far away and will take the beatings mid season. I only do h2h though, roto a different story. 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/1/2019 at 12:56 PM, johnval1362 said:

Beal will be a phenomenal fantasy season player, maybe top 5. I'm thinking 27 8 and 6 with a steal 3 3s 3.5 tos and 46% fg but I'm still staying the hell away unless I can somehow get him 2nd round. No chance wizards are making the playoffs and that means that if he breaks a nail, stubs his toe, the team will shut him down rest of season post all star break. Nothing like a top 5 player being less valuable than Rajon rondo. I'll be staying far away and will take the beatings mid season. I only do h2h though, roto a different story. 

 

If you really think he’s gonna be top 5 and let’s say you have the pick at the turn of the 1st, why not just trade him after a couple of months and maximise that top 5 value?

Edited by Pirate

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