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Bradley Beal 2019-2020 Outlook

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Y'all going with him in the first round? Damn confused. Don't want an oladipo situation in my hands again 

Edited by atlantadynasty
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Kind of get the above, Beal had career highs in 5 different categories and second highest of his career on 3 other cats in 2018-19.
His z-score value last season was double that of his second best year ever, making it by far the best season of his career. Which translated to being the 14th best player per game. (Some guys ahead of him dropped of this year though).

Everybody here seems surprisingly confident that he is definitely going to reproduce all this, including the near 82 games and 37 minutes.
I know he's in a very similar situation to last year and it's very possible that he does but I personally don't trust all those career highs enough to spend a first round pick on him. 

Of course it was his first season without Wall but I don't think that can be used to explain his career highs in blocks and steals, as well as his improvement in fg% over the previous season. Which could all easily drop back down to his averages in 19-20.

Still close to first round for me just because of the opportunity but it seems like I have more doubts about him than most others on here.

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3 hours ago, atlantadynasty said:

Y'all going with him in the first round? Damn confused. Don't want an oladipo situation in my hands again 

 

1 hour ago, qpeeters said:

Still close to first round for me just because of the opportunity but it seems like I have more doubts about him than most others on here.

 

I am definitely a little concerned about this as well.  Being from Maryland, I still cannot wrap my head around Beal as an actual first round guy.  I have never been a huge fan of Beal particularly during those first few injury-riddled years.  Solid player, but I don't think he can carry a franchise to anything.  He is a wingman that is unfortunately put into a leading role.  But he definitely has improved and without Wall around, he will get all of the usage he wants.

The situation with Oladipo's disappointment last year was a little different in that he took a big leap from what he was before Indiana.  And last year he just wasn't healthy - he had a sore knee even before he tore his quad.  In Beal's case, it has been a little more of an incremental improvement from year to year than Oladipo's breakout. 

Beal's steals will probably come back down to around 1-1.2 and the blocks might come down a little as well.  The FG% has been up for three years now, so unless he goes into some prolonged slump, I think even with the added defensive attention it should be relatively safe.  But at the same time, since they are a garbage team, he knows he is going to need to score.  Whether he has to jack shots to do so, he is going to do it.  So it definitely is possible for a lower FG% if he is jacking shots, but the PPG itself will not go down.  The assists are absolutely going up even further.  I believe Brooks on that.

Health with him will always be a concern, especially carrying a heavy load now for a full year.  Saying all of this, he is still a really good second round pick and a little bit of a gamble at the back-end of the first.  But I am willing to take that gamble with Beal over the load management boys. 

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5 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

 

I am definitely a little concerned about this as well.  Being from Maryland, I still cannot wrap my head around Beal as an actual first round guy.  I have never been a huge fan of Beal particularly during those first few injury-riddled years.  Solid player, but I don't think he can carry a franchise to anything.  He is a wingman that is unfortunately put into a leading role.  But he definitely has improved and without Wall around, he will get all of the usage he wants.

The situation with Oladipo's disappointment last year was a little different in that he took a big leap from what he was before Indiana.  And last year he just wasn't healthy - he had a sore knee even before he tore his quad.  In Beal's case, it has been a little more of an incremental improvement from year to year than Oladipo's breakout. 

Beal's steals will probably come back down to around 1-1.2 and the blocks might come down a little as well.  The FG% has been up for three years now, so unless he goes into some prolonged slump, I think even with the added defensive attention it should be relatively safe.  But at the same time, since they are a garbage team, he knows he is going to need to score.  Whether he has to jack shots to do so, he is going to do it.  So it definitely is possible for a lower FG% if he is jacking shots, but the PPG itself will not go down.  The assists are absolutely going up even further.  I believe Brooks on that.

Health with him will always be a concern, especially carrying a heavy load now for a full year.  Saying all of this, he is still a really good second round pick and a little bit of a gamble at the back-end of the first.  But I am willing to take that gamble with Beal over the load management boys. 

I mean, he was absolutely 1st round material last year when wall went down. 

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15 minutes ago, WhatIsThisWizardry said:

I mean, he was absolutely 1st round material last year when wall went down. 

 

True. He was. I am just saying I have some doubts about him replicating it for the reasons I laid out.

Are those concerns not legitimate? Possible regression in career high categories. Possible efficiency drop due to added defensive attention and responsibility with a worse team over now a full 82 games. Health risk due to the heavier load.

But like I said, even with those concerns, I am willing to take him at the back-end of the first over the load management boys.

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so difficult deciding. I'm basically torn with who to go with as my first pick at the end of the draft and I'm pretty sure I'll do the wrong choice either way lol

Edited by atlantadynasty

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The thing people need to remember most about Beal is that he hasn't signed an extension yet and I doubt he will sign one this season because it is still possible for him to qualify for a supermax. The motivation to play well is there because if the Wizards somehow makes the playoffs along with Beal having monster stats, it increases his chances of making an all-NBA team.

Now if you're playing snake and somehow you're drafting outside of the top 5, we all know that the value tapers off greatly from there. Drafting players like Leonard, George, and Embiid carries risk of losing some games in the fantasy playoffs though they may have a chance of being ranked in the top 5 based on average. Lillard and Jokic I feel doesn't have a shot of being ranked inside the top 5 based on average but you worry about them less in terms of missing games so you see them being taken at 6 and 7. Beal has a shot at being ranked in the top 5, carried less risk than the 3 I mentioned first, no stat you can point to as weak based on last year with Wall out, and doesn't compel you to feel like you suddenly need to punt.

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Anyone managed to build a good team around Beal? In all the mock drafts I end up being around the last positions on the Yahoo rankings. Main concern is, you pick up a good PG with your second pick and then by the time you get to pick again, all the good big guys are off the board and you are stuck with the likes of Zion, John Collins, JJJ and not sure if that's good enough. 

Edited by atlantadynasty

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On 10/9/2019 at 8:35 PM, OxyBubbleMan said:

The thing people need to remember most about Beal is that he hasn't signed an extension yet and I doubt he will sign one this season because it is still possible for him to qualify for a supermax. The motivation to play well is there because if the Wizards somehow makes the playoffs along with Beal having monster stats, it increases his chances of making an all-NBA team.

Now if you're playing snake and somehow you're drafting outside of the top 5, we all know that the value tapers off greatly from there. Drafting players like Leonard, George, and Embiid carries risk of losing some games in the fantasy playoffs though they may have a chance of being ranked in the top 5 based on average. Lillard and Jokic I feel doesn't have a shot of being ranked inside the top 5 based on average but you worry about them less in terms of missing games so you see them being taken at 6 and 7. Beal has a shot at being ranked in the top 5, carried less risk than the 3 I mentioned first, no stat you can point to as weak based on last year with Wall out, and doesn't compel you to feel like you suddenly need to punt.

That's a solid way to look at it. I feel like after pick 7 (jokic or dame) you're stuck with the load management squad of (embiid/lbj/kawhi/pg) and the possibility of missing back to backs in the playoffs. Beal with pick 8 sounds....weird to me I guess but ya he doesn't hurt you in anything and has a great chance to shine.

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On 10/9/2019 at 8:59 AM, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

I am definitely a little concerned about this as well.  Being from Maryland, I still cannot wrap my head around Beal as an actual first round guy.  I have never been a huge fan of Beal particularly during those first few injury-riddled years.  Solid player, but I don't think he can carry a franchise to anything.  He is a wingman that is unfortunately put into a leading role.  But he definitely has improved and without Wall around, he will get all of the usage he wants.

The situation with Oladipo's disappointment last year was a little different in that he took a big leap from what he was before Indiana.  And last year he just wasn't healthy - he had a sore knee even before he tore his quad.  In Beal's case, it has been a little more of an incremental improvement from year to year than Oladipo's breakout. 

 

 

I think another difference with Oladipo is his value & his floor has been extremely variable. His floor has been anywhere from T90 one year, T35 one year, and T60 another year.

 

While Beal has been in the low 80s-90s in terms of value before, since he became a 20ppg scorer he hasn't dropped below T40 value. I just think his floor is way higher than Dipo's even though I agree there's potential for him to disappoint a 1st-round ADP.

 

 

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Basketball monster projects his assists at 6.6 per game. I think that is the key to putting his value at the first round as his dimes project to be higher than the likes of Jrue, Kemba, Steph, Kyrie, Booker.

That surprised me a lot. Has he really become that much of a playmaker? Can anyone who watched him last year comment if that projection is attainable?

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19 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

Basketball monster projects his assists at 6.6 per game. I think that is the key to putting his value at the first round as his dimes project to be higher than the likes of Jrue, Kemba, Steph, Kyrie, Booker.

That surprised me a lot. Has he really become that much of a playmaker? Can anyone who watched him last year comment if that projection is attainable?

Scott brooks recently said that beal will facilitate the ball more this year which is why his projected assists went up 

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Yes and yes. He’s very unselfish and will make plays for teammates, willing passer. John Wall is the ballhog on that team, the play stops with him, turning everything into ISO ball.

 

From an outsider looking in, watched 40 Wiz games last season.

Edited by MysticPeak
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26 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

Basketball monster projects his assists at 6.6 per game. I think that is the key to putting his value at the first round as his dimes project to be higher than the likes of Jrue, Kemba, Steph, Kyrie, Booker.

That surprised me a lot. Has he really become that much of a playmaker? Can anyone who watched him last year comment if that projection is attainable?

 

The only other person on that team who can pass the ball is Ish Smith.  Just from a probability perspective, if Beal has the ball in his hands at like a 30% usage rate, someone will receive said ball (especially off double teams) and score it.  Even Kobe Bryant was able to average 6.3 assists one season.  

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8 hours ago, atlantadynasty said:

Anyone managed to build a good team around Beal? In all the mock drafts I end up being around the last positions on the Yahoo rankings. Main concern is, you pick up a good PG with your second pick and then by the time you get to pick again, all the good big guys are off the board and you are stuck with the likes of Zion, John Collins, JJJ and not sure if that's good enough. 

 

8 hours ago, izeroi said:

That's a solid way to look at it. I feel like after pick 7 (jokic or dame) you're stuck with the load management squad of (embiid/lbj/kawhi/pg) and the possibility of missing back to backs in the playoffs. Beal with pick 8 sounds....weird to me I guess but ya he doesn't hurt you in anything and has a great chance to shine.

 

If you don't want the load management guys the only other players are Butler, Holiday, Booker, who have all played similar number of games as the load managed guys...Gobert / Drummond / Vuc...Trae Young...or Lebron who I don't consider a big risk to miss too many games...

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Beal fell to my 12th pick and partnered him with ayton and jj (2nd and 3rd). If wiz keeps him out in week 22 onwards, I'm dead. I'm hoping he pushes for the all nba team else my team would be a force in the playoff. 

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11 minutes ago, mmart_ph said:

Beal fell to my 12th pick and partnered him with ayton and jj (2nd and 3rd). If wiz keeps him out in week 22 onwards, I'm dead. I'm hoping he pushes for the all nba team else my team would be a force in the playoff. 

i think hes a steal at 12th, good pick tbh

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On 10/11/2019 at 10:33 PM, atlantadynasty said:

Anyone managed to build a good team around Beal? In all the mock drafts I end up being around the last positions on the Yahoo rankings. Main concern is, you pick up a good PG with your second pick and then by the time you get to pick again, all the good big guys are off the board and you are stuck with the likes of Zion, John Collins, JJJ and not sure if that's good enough. 

 

I went with Beal at 12 and for bigs ended up with Vuc, Turner, Bryant and Horford (The latter 2 really slipped ) 

 

PGs I ended up with Lowry and Conley 

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On 10/5/2019 at 11:11 AM, Quazza said:

Picking 12th I had this combo fall to me but went with Beal and Vuc (I just really liked the look of that combo - gave me a bit of everything )

 

I did the same. Couldn't find it better with #12 and #13 pick. Didn't have the luck to get Turner. Went with LMA and Conley with #36, #37. Then I got Tobias, Bam, SGA, Warren. I'm gonna need blocks. 

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32 minutes ago, sickrookie said:

 

I did the same. Couldn't find it better with #12 and #13 pick. Didn't have the luck to get Turner. Went with LMA and Conley with #36, #37. Then I got Tobias, Bam, SGA, Warren. I'm gonna need blocks. 

 

Agreed on the blocks but think you still did well getting bigs that's hit FTs to go with Vuc

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1 hour ago, sickrookie said:

 

I did the same. Couldn't find it better with #12 and #13 pick. Didn't have the luck to get Turner. Went with LMA and Conley with #36, #37. Then I got Tobias, Bam, SGA, Warren. I'm gonna need blocks. 

Pretty good order. I'm torn between SGA and Brogdon when left with the choice in the mocks I've been doing (Yahoo 9cat). Really like SGA's game tho.

With regards to Beal I'm torn between him and Kyrie at 10. Beal is probably safer, even though he has had really injury ridden seasons himself before these last two years where he played 82. My gut just tells me Kyrie will play his heart out in march when it really counts while Beal will be rested against s---y teams, so I'm leaning Kyrie.

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I got Beal at 11 (picked him over Kyrie and Leonard) and paired him with Kemba and then Mitch Rob in the early rounds in a 20 teamer. Thoughts?

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I got Beal autopicked at 10th and pair him with Vuc, Aldridge and LeVert. Wven without a pg in the 1st 4 rounds,I am still pretty competitive in assist. Overall,I think I did a pretty good job in my 18 team h2h league.

Edited by xellosdax

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1 hour ago, xellosdax said:

I got Beal autopicked at 10th and pair him with Vuc, Aldridge and LeVert. Wven without a pg in the 1st 4 rounds,I am still pretty competitive in assist. Overall,I think I did a pretty good job in my 18 team h2h league.

 

Beal will basically be a point guard anywhere. 

 

Read Brooks saying he thinks Beals assists numbers could reach 7 a game (which would be awesome ) so the ball is obviously going to be in his hands a lot 

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I had the 7th pick and took him over lilard, embiid, lebron. For me it was either going be him or lillard. At the end i chose beal because his going be a much more volume shooter. Lillard has been the last 3 years stuck in the 26 point range while beal for a good chunk last year was avg 30 pts/game. Beal also has much higher steal, a category you really want your first pick guard to have. The only drawback I see is lillard has better track record of playing every game and portland being competitive. Beal still played every game last season on a tanking wizards team but they did limit his mins the last few games. 

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