Trae Young 2019-2020 Outlook

[slmroz 79]

Could you guys explain me the whole hype in his case?
I get it, he finished last season strong... like middle round level strong. What's the point in estimating him around 2/3 turn?

Did Curry's comparisons get the job done?

[Auction>Snake 402]

The stage is set all for him, the face of the Hawks. Talent is there. Perfect situation. What's not to like?

[slmroz 79]

2 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

The stage is set all for him, the face of the Hawks. Talent is there. Perfect situation. What's not to like?

Well, what I usually like about players in fantasy it's numbers. What are your projections for him next season?

Edited July 30 by slmroz

[qpeeters 137]

I think the 2-3 turn is pretty early for Trae, he could hit that value if everything goes right but there may not be much potential for profit there (this year).

If he can play an entire season like he did the last 2 months of last season, which I think is entirely possible for a guy with his talent in his sophomore season, he would return top 40 value. Which would make him a good pick at the 3-4 turn. An exiting young prospect like him usually doesn't make it out of the 4th round anyway so taking him any later is probably not an option.

[justaguy 107]

He'll kill your TOs and quite possibly fg%. Great addition if you are punting TOs or have high efficiency players that can absorb his detriments. Reminds me of Russ in that sense - his value varies depending on team composition. 

[StifleTower2 2,523]

He finished the last two months of the season 37th.  If you round his numbers up (even assuming little or no progression) he should be around 25/10/5 with 2.5 threes and a steal.  Lillard numbers with more assists.  His efficiency wasn't "that bad" as he shot 43/87 the last two months.  Actually, his worst cat was TO at 3.5 to finish the year.  Notably his TO went down even as his other numbers went up, which is encouraging.  A lot of people play 8 cat in which he finished 20th the last two months of the season.  Part of the problem is that the rotoworld writer's default is 8 cat/redraft/snake. If you're playing 8 cat Booker was 9th the last two months and Trae was 20th.  You could draft someone like KAT first round, then Booker second round, Trae third, and have an amazing team in 8 cat.  Such a team wouldn't be as good in 9 cat but punt FG/TO is the most common punt and Trae ranked 15th the last two months of the season in that build.  The majority of money leagues are 9 cat auctions so automatically we're not on the same sheet of music, although many people play 9 cat as if it were 8 cat.  In brief, I think Trae is worth a second/third round pick in the builds you'd draft him in.  

[slmroz 79]

OK, that 8cat reasoning sounds fine to me. 

In many cases I got wrongfully biased by last 2 month stats against teams aiming at the lottery or resting their stars so now I'm more careful with it. I mean - I always take it into consideration, just not rely on those stats 100%. With Trae, indeed, he looks like a poorman's Lillard although similar profile doesn't neccessarily mean a close value at all. 
Anyway. He's surely one of those guys I'll not be able to draft this year... Especially given that I don't play 8cats :-)

Edited July 30 by slmroz

[StifleTower2 2,523]

33 minutes ago, slmroz said:

OK, that 8cat reasoning sounds fine to me. 

In many cases I got wrongfully biased by last 2 month stats against teams aiming at the lottery or resting their stars so now I'm more careful with it. I mean - I always take it into consideration, just not rely on those stats 100%. With Trae, indeed, he looks like a poorman's Lillard although similar profile doesn't neccessarily mean a close value at all. 
Anyway. He's surely one of those guys I'll not be able to draft this year... Especially given that I don't play 8cats 🙂

I prefer 9 cat roto auction so rotoworld’s default rankings are meaningless to me.  I think he will go sub $30 in most roto auctions. 

[hipriest69 816]

Aint nobody else giving you 10 assists + high 80's FT + a non-load management + skill increase + big minutes + over 20 ppg lock + good reb for a guard  + elite 3's + better teammates this year.  To me he's as safe a 2nd round pick as anyone out there, 3rd round its a no brainer you better run and cash your ticket as fast as you can.  

[StifleTower2 2,523]

2 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

Aint nobody else giving you 10 assists + high 80's FT + a non-load management + skill increase + big minutes + over 20 ppg lock + good reb for a guard  + elite 3's + better teammates this year.  To me he's as safe a 2nd round pick as anyone out there, 3rd round its a no brainer you better run and cash your ticket as fast as you can.  

Then you just punt FG/To and it’s fine.  I think FG/To keep him out of the top 30 in 9 cat roto.  Again, not a pick order but his 9 cat roto per game ranking in BBM without any punt filters on.   

[taenggg 1,001]

If you draft him in H2H there's a chance you're punting TOs anyways. He basically returned top 30 value over his last 50 games in punt TO builds. 

Now, if only he could somehow get his steals close to his college steal rate (2.5%, 1.8 stls). 

[johnval1362 144]

I'd take Trae in the late 3rd or early 4th. He gets no steals fg%  and stocks are important. No sneaky blocks either. I never draft lillard, hes as overrated of a fantasy player as you can find. I've never seen a lillard team win 1st place, ever (100+ leagues). So a poor man's Lillard isnt special at all. 4th... not 2nd, maybe late 3rd. Also need to consider trae is a very tiny person and will likely be injury prone after being roughed up. 

That being said his to rate actually isnt much of a problem, because hes getting you 10 assists a game. 3.5 to to 10 assists is a good rate so you can balance your team out with more low to players to make up for it while still having the 10 assists hes gonna get you. I'd take Donovan Mitchell before trae. 

[slmroz 79]

18 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

I'd take Trae in the late 3rd or early 4th. He gets no steals fg%  and stocks are important.

 

Agree. Lack of stocks is something that tells me to be careful. Increase in FG% at the end of the season looks nice but I'd also prefer to see it in a bit bigger sample before I spend my early pick...

[Fantasyscrub 241]

3 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

I'd take Trae in the late 3rd or early 4th. He gets no steals fg%  and stocks are important. No sneaky blocks either. I never draft lillard, hes as overrated of a fantasy player as you can find. I've never seen a lillard team win 1st place, ever (100+ leagues). So a poor man's Lillard isnt special at all. 4th... not 2nd, maybe late 3rd. Also need to consider trae is a very tiny person and will likely be injury prone after being roughed up. 

That being said his to rate actually isnt much of a problem, because hes getting you 10 assists a game. 3.5 to to 10 assists is a good rate so you can balance your team out with more low to players to make up for it while still having the 10 assists hes gonna get you. I'd take Donovan Mitchell before trae. 

 

Have to disagree with you there about Mitchell.  He's even more overrated than Trae.

[joey2506 11]

I'm all in on Trae this season. His post-all-star numbers were great. I think he'll have a top 30 finish.

[johnval1362 144]

6 hours ago, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Have to disagree with you there about Mitchell.  He's even more overrated than Trae.

Hes over rated definitely but Mitchell gets you 1.5 steals. I'd prefer the steals over assists. I think Mitchell will have an easier time this year to with Conley in the mix setting him up. I think they're very close for who I would draft first but would def go with Mitchell first. Trae could avg 27and 12 with 4 3s this year though... its risky I'd rather wait for the 4th, late 3rd or go with Mitchell 

[dino10k 73]

I was wrong on Trae Young. He looks to be a fantasy top 30 for years to come.

But if I'm the Atlanta Hawks - It would be nice if Trae could play a little defense. Or maybe at least try.

But this is fantasy. So who cares.

[hipriest69 816]

19 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Hes over rated definitely but Mitchell gets you 1.5 steals. I'd prefer the steals over assists. I think Mitchell will have an easier time this year to with Conley in the mix setting him up. I think they're very close for who I would draft first but would def go with Mitchell first. Trae could avg 27and 12 with 4 3s this year though... its risky I'd rather wait for the 4th, late 3rd or go with Mitchell 

 

Donny's value goes up when he gets A - more assists, B - shoots getter FG, and C - gets to the line more

 

I'm not so sure any of those happen.  Definitely A isn't happening with Conley.  B might but I think he's just a different player when he's the lead dog with the ball in his hands all the time.  Rubio is an elite passer but Donny would just sit and rot in the corner then jack up a bad 3 everytime he touches it.  I like him as a player but would only draft him in certain situations. 

 

[johnval1362 144]

34 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Donny's value goes up when he gets A - more assists, B - shoots getter FG, and C - gets to the line more

 

I'm not so sure any of those happen.  Definitely A isn't happening with Conley.  B might but I think he's just a different player when he's the lead dog with the ball in his hands all the time.  Rubio is an elite passer but Donny would just sit and rot in the corner then jack up a bad 3 everytime he touches it.  I like him as a player but would only draft him in certain situations. 

 

Ya I don't see A or C happening but I definitely see an increase in his fg% and less TO. Mitchell's biggest crutch is his fg% and TO in the first place so I see him improving with Conley around. 

[JStyles 571]

Huge upside in auction drafts, where people who don't want to go for a stars and scrubs approach can pick up a guy like Trae for less than half the price of a Lillard/Westbrook and end up with a guy who may put up value that isn't too far off them.

[Fantasyscrub 241]

11 hours ago, JStyles said:

Huge upside in auction drafts, where people who don't want to go for a stars and scrubs approach can pick up a guy like Trae for less than half the price of a Lillard/Westbrook and end up with a guy who may put up value that isn't too far off them.

 

I'm thinking of going stars and scrubs with trae as my 4th option

[mmcc1029 1,344]

He's gonna lead the league in assists, calling it here. 

[hipriest69 816]

Well in some recent drafts I've done he hasn't made it out of the mid 2nd round, so...do you grab Trae with his deficiencies in FG/stocks/TO?  He gets literally zero blocks, but I guess that's somewhat similar to a center getting less than 1 assist.  1 steal / game is adequate if he's gonna lead the league in assists.  FG is balanced by high FT.  TO suck but whatever.  I wish I could draft him but it's just so hard (almost impossible) to take him over other almost sure fire 1st round-ish players who might be available like Jimmy Butler, Vucevic, Drummond, Beal, etc.  

[apatas 356]

There is 0% doubt that I pick CP3 and Westbrook over Trae Young. Of course in redraft leagues.

Edited September 25 by apatas

[hipriest69 816]

Just now, apatas said:

There is 0% doubt that I pick CP3 and Westbrook over Trae Young.

 

Wow even with CP3 as close to guaranteed to be limited to 65-70 games, and Westbrook with 3 bad efficiency categories?  At least Trae is elite FT...and is a near lock to play over 36 minutes game and will play in every single game barring injury...