Keeper Decision: Pat Mahomes or Derrius Guice

[Flyman75 4,854]

12-team, 1/2 PPR, keep 3. Start QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, TE, 2 WRT. 

Simple question...would you keep Mahomes as a 10th rd keepr or Guice as a 7th? 

RBs are pretty thin in this draft (I'll be keeping Kamara), and QBs are often undervalued. Few are taken before rd 8-9. That said, Mahomes would be a 4th rd pick in our draft, maybe as high as a 3rd. The chances of me getting a good QB in the mid rounds is very good. 

With our keepers, they add a round each year they're kept. So next year, Guice would be a 6th and Mahomes a 9th. With the thin nature of RBs in our league, it would seem more prudent to keep Guice, even if he was merely a Flex play this year. I could pick up someone like Mayfield in the 7th-8th. 

Or am I overthinking and should just keep Mahomes in the 10th? RBs are a premium in our league...QBs are not. 

Thoughts?

[Boudewijn 4,352]

1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Simple question...would you keep Mahomes as a 10th rd keepr or Guice as a 7th? 

I'm not a Guice fan at all, especially with him being in Washington which I think is where average talent goes to die.

If I set that aside, ADP-wise it's not bad of course, but I really love that idea of Mahomes for a 10th, I feel you can't go wrong there.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Boudewijn

[Rush2112 4,263]

Keep Mahomes everyday & twice on Sunday's 

[Flyman75 4,854]

3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm not a Guice fan at all, especially with him being in Washington which I think is where average talent goes to die.

If I set that aside, ADP-wise it's not bad of course, but I really love that idea of Mahomes for a 10th, I feel you can't go wrong there.

 

Are you saying you think Guice is an average talent? If so, I'd disagree with that.

I have another owner trying to give me some pick upgrades for Mahomes, which is one reason I'm bringing this up. I could get the 1.08, 2.12, 5.08, 9.01, and 10.04 for my 2.01, 3.02, 6.01, 9.08, and 10.11. Not huge pick upgrades. Each one is just a few spots. 

[Boudewijn 4,352]

14 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Are you saying you think Guice is an average talent? If so, I'd disagree with that.

Well, Guice is your guy  On the other hand, I know you are usually fairly level headed on LSU kids, so if you like him, I shut up and listen.

15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I have another owner trying to give me some pick upgrades for Mahomes, which is one reason I'm bringing this up. I could get the 1.08, 2.12, 5.08, 9.01, and 10.04 for my 2.01, 3.02, 6.01, 9.08, and 10.11. Not huge pick upgrades. Each one is just a few spots. 

That is very interesting. I am looking mostly at the first 2 rounds, because I feel that after the 5/6 these couple spots really don't matter anymore, but 1.08 for 2.01 is nice, and even 2.12 for 3.02 is not bad. Clearly that's not enough though; but I would try to milk that trade, see if you can get the 1.08 for say your 6.01? Then we're talking.

[tobeyreichman18 61]

I agree if you can get that 1.08 without having to give up your 2.01 I would do it, and then just keep Guice. Meaning you would be getting back the 1.08, 2.12, 5.08, and 9.01 in pick swaps for 3.02, 6.01, 9.08, and the 10.11. Basically its multiple upgrades all around the table. Honestly that is the only way I would do it though. 

[youngrice 1,303]

I would normally side with the RB.  But your talking about keeping Guice a huge question mark over a QB that just threw 50 tds.  Don't see how it's a question.  You keep Mahomes.

[Flyman75 4,854]

31 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I would normally side with the RB.  But your talking about keeping Guice a huge question mark over a QB that just threw 50 tds.  Don't see how it's a question.  You keep Mahomes.

 

It's a question because this isn't just about 2019. It's also about 2020 and 2021 and so forth. It's very possible (if not likely) that a fully healthy Guice in 2020 with no AP to split carries with his going to be more valuable than any 9th rd QB, especially in a league that undervalues QBs. As for Mahomes throwing 50 TDs last year, what does that matter? I'm concerned with his value vs Guice this year and in the coming years. And the 50 TDs is immaterial to me because there's no way he throws 50 this year...might not even reach 40. 

I appreciate your perspective, but the statement "don't see how it's a question" rubs me the wrong way. When people are seeking outside perspectives, there is always a reason for it. 

[bhawks489 3,669]

I’d take mahomes at that rd10 price. Guice I don’t trust in washington

[GreatScott! 680]

Mahomes in the 10th is a steal. Guice in the 7th is good value as well but we do not know if he is a good NFL player yet. As someone who waits until around round 10 for a QB I’d love to get someone with the upside of Mahomes that late. 

[youngrice 1,303]

On 8/1/2019 at 8:50 AM, Flyman75 said:

 

It's a question because this isn't just about 2019. It's also about 2020 and 2021 and so forth. It's very possible (if not likely) that a fully healthy Guice in 2020 with no AP to split carries with his going to be more valuable than any 9th rd QB, especially in a league that undervalues QBs. As for Mahomes throwing 50 TDs last year, what does that matter? I'm concerned with his value vs Guice this year and in the coming years. And the 50 TDs is immaterial to me because there's no way he throws 50 this year...might not even reach 40. 

I appreciate your perspective, but the statement "don't see how it's a question" rubs me the wrong way. When people are seeking outside perspectives, there is always a reason for it. 

In my personal opinion its not a question.  One player just led the fantasy football in total points the other got injured and never played a down.  I get your a homer so you want to attack anybody that doesn't think Guice is anything special.  But you asked the question and to attack people after they are nice enough to answer is a joke.  Don't worry I won't bother making the same mistake again.  You rank right up there with DHC in my book.

[Bandito 2,542]

I badly want (need 🙏! ) Guice to come through.  That said, I'd be keeping Mahomes here.

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