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Tyrell Williams 2019 Outlook

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I'm surprised there hasn't been a 2019 thread for Williams yet so I created one.

He had some big games for the Chargers in previous years before signing with the Raiders as a free agent.  If Antonio Brown's foot problem ends up being a long term concern, Williams would likely step in as the Raiders #1 wr which isn't saying much but any #1 wr has value.

I took him late in a draft I had yesterday and wouldn't be surprised if he's sitting on the wire in a lot of other leagues.  I think he's definitely worth a look if you have the roster space. 

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Not enough love for him. Has the talent and speed. Add that fact that Carr has one of the most accurate deep balls in the league and you have AB taking a lot of attention and you have a recipe for a gem in the late rounds.

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Guy reminds me of a giant scarecrow out there. Runs route, catches ball, gets immediately tackled.  It also seems like he is lucky to get two yards after he catches the ball.  Guy runs a 4.48 but never seems to be moving fast.  Reminds me of Matt Jones in that regard.  You know he is fast because no one is catching him, but somehow he looks slow when he is running.

 

I don't know how I feel about him.  I liked him a couple years ago, and then he killed me with the drops. I'd really like to see him use his body to create better positioning and space instead of having to out jump or out incredible a DB on a catch.

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Tyrell Williams is locked into the WR2 spot with the Oakland Raiders.  His August begins with news that the genius, Antonio Brown, didn't learn about how to deal with the cold during his time at Central Michigan.  His feet right now look like they belong to the guy who offered Steve McQueen a cigar in Papillon.  

If Brown misses significant time, let us remember what Tyrell Williams did in his lone season as the alpha dog:

69 receptions, 1059 yards, 7 TD.  This was in 2016 in San Diego when Keenan Allen got injured during the first week of the season.

Now in his fifth season, the 27 year-old Williams made like Johnny Kemp and just got paid, signing a four-year, $44 million deal with Gruden's Raiders.  He has intriguing upside in what is looking like a basket case situation in Oakland.

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He does have interesting upside, but at the same time I find it hard to buy into Derek Carr's WR2 this year, when last year he couldn't even support his WR1.  If AB misses time then that is a boon for Williams, but there's no guarantee that will happen, so you're basically drafting the #2 on the Raiders.  I know they're supposed to be improved all around, but I don't have a lot of faith in Carr being able to keep AB happy, while also feeding Williams enough to make him pay off.  

I'd rather take a shot with Anthony Miller or Moncrief around the ADP Williams is going for, personally.  

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20 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

He does have interesting upside, but at the same time I find it hard to buy into Derek Carr's WR2 this year, when last year he couldn't even support his WR1.  If AB misses time then that is a boon for Williams, but there's no guarantee that will happen, so you're basically drafting the #2 on the Raiders.  I know they're supposed to be improved all around, but I don't have a lot of faith in Carr being able to keep AB happy, while also feeding Williams enough to make him pay off.  

I'd rather take a shot with Anthony Miller or Moncrief around the ADP Williams is going for, personally.  

 

That’s a good post.  OAK does have 182 receptions to WRs and TEs unaccounted for from last season, and their D was close to last against the run while they were #1 in the NFL in pass attempts defended.  In short, other teams didn’t feel any urgency to throw against OAK and instead pounded them into the ground with their running game.  That shortens games and reduces offensive opportunities for the Raiders.

 

If the OAK can show a little bit of life on O and their D plays a little bit better (and with the changes they made on D they should improve some - not a bunch, but some) where they can be at least a little bit more competitive and their O opportunities should increase.  It’s not unreasonable to see their receptions go up by 25 or 30, not through any explicitly better play by Carr but rather by staying in games just a little while longer. 

 

If there are indeed 210 receptions that will get spread around to new players, it’s possible that Williams can net 60-65 of them.  That’s 4 to 4.5 catches per game.  If he can hold close to his career 16.3 ypr, that means he’d be flirting with a 1,000 yd receiving season.  Add 6 TDs to that - again, that’s where he’s been near careerwise - and you’ve got a WR who might post somewhere around 200 FF pts in ppr.

 

That’s a low end WR2/very good WR3 in a 12 team ppr league.  That has some very real value in most FF leagues.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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3 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

If AB doesn’t play this year because of his helmet issue where do we rank Tyrell? 

 

I don't think I'd take him at all.  His only value imo would be in having Brown or another true WR1 taking the defense away from him.

Carr couldn't make it work with Cooper, I can't see him making Tyrell fantasy relevant. 

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

If AB doesn’t play this year because of his helmet issue where do we rank Tyrell? 

I would probably view Tyrell as a middle tier wr3.  I think he can be a sneaky pick toward the end of drafts.

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3 hours ago, K197040 said:

 

I don't think I'd take him at all.  His only value imo would be in having Brown or another true WR1 taking the defense away from him.

Carr couldn't make it work with Cooper, I can't see him making Tyrell fantasy relevant. 

 

Who are they going to throw to in that situation?  Gruden?

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Yeah he would be essentially the ONLY option in oakland and he showed out pretty well a few years back when KA went down and he was the #1 for San Diego. 

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5 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

If AB doesn’t play this year because of his helmet issue where do we rank Tyrell? 

I'd expect him to be around WR22 if Brown didn't play at all.   The downgrade from Rivers to Carr is real but this horrible team is going to be in a passing game flow almost constantly.  This guy could score 100 fantasy points worth of garbage time stats alone in such a scenario. 

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On 8/9/2019 at 8:32 PM, Bronco Billy said:

 

Who are they going to throw to in that situation?  Gruden?

It doesn't matter to me who they throw to.   I don't think they'll be fantasy relevant.  Williams has historically been a downfield guy and lately Carr has not been a deepball QB. 

 

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On 8/10/2019 at 4:32 AM, Bronco Billy said:

 

Who are they going to throw to in that situation?  Gruden?

tumblr_mh77hatUpX1s2xprbo1_500.gif

And why not. He is to blame for most of this.

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2 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Deep-ball threat on a team + QB who can't throw deep well + diva WR who will pout at every ball not thrown his way = NEXT

 

I agree that AB will get all of the targets because he will cry if he doesn't but Carr is actually decent throwing deep, I'm not sure if I want to put too much stock into Pro Football Focus numbers but they have him as the most accurate downfield passer last year:

https://247sports.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/Article/Derek-Carr-most-accurate-deep-passer-PFF-132027764/

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12 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

I agree that AB will get all of the targets because he will cry if he doesn't but Carr is actually decent throwing deep, I'm not sure if I want to put too much stock into Pro Football Focus numbers but they have him as the most accurate downfield passer last year:

https://247sports.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/Article/Derek-Carr-most-accurate-deep-passer-PFF-132027764/

 

That's interesting, thanks for sharing. I've seen it stated regularly that Carr is the opposite but I took that at face value and didn't look at the real numbers. 

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14 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

I agree that AB will get all of the targets because he will cry if he doesn't but Carr is actually decent throwing deep, I'm not sure if I want to put too much stock into Pro Football Focus numbers but they have him as the most accurate downfield passer last year:

https://247sports.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/Article/Derek-Carr-most-accurate-deep-passer-PFF-132027764/

Yeah the one caveat is how many deep throws did he attempt compared to others on the list.

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Let us look at the situation. Oakland is going to be behind a lot this year. Vegas has them going 6-10, which is probably generous.  Brown will get a ton of targets, but who else?  Their tight end is a virtual unknown project player. Their 3-down running back is a rookie who we suspect will be a good pass catcher but we really don't know for sure.  The 3rd receiver is an late 5th round rookie who will presumably need time to adjust. 

Add it all up and it feels like Williams will get a lot of targets.. I could see him catching 65 balls for 850 yards this season. 

His current ADP is WR53.

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How have the WR2's fared with Carr the last few years?  Yep.  PASS

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7 hours ago, kdko said:

How have the WR2's fared with Carr the last few years?  Yep.  PASS

 

Huh?  They've fared very well. 

2015: Oakland had two WR in the top 23.

2016: Oakland had two WR in the top 14!

2017: Cooper and Crabtree both missed time but finished as WR21 and WR28 on a per game basis (excluding guys with 4 or fewer games).

Granted last year was a disaster in the new system and with Gruden wanting to get rid of Cooper. But if anything, Carr has been one of the best at supporting 2 receivers over the last few years.  

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2 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Huh?  They've fared very well. 

2015: Oakland had two WR in the top 23.

2016: Oakland had two WR in the top 14!

2017: Cooper and Crabtree both missed time but finished as WR21 and WR28 on a per game basis (excluding guys with 4 or fewer games).

Granted last year was a disaster in the new system and with Gruden wanting to get rid of Cooper. But if anything, Carr has been one of the best at supporting 2 receivers over the last few years.  

 

Recency bias at its finest.

 

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So delighted that everyone has now learned the phrase “recency bias” so they can misuse it on these threads. 🤪

 

Bottom line, Ty has landed in a solid situation and offers very nice upside at his current adp. 

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