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Tyrell Williams 2019 Outlook

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53 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Well said.  

He has talent...but is no true wr1. Carr had something like 4 incompletions all game.    His accuracy is tremendous when he’s on.  Everything was working at home and this team was fired up.  

 

I had flashbacks to last season when when the Raiders stomped the Rams for a half.   Degree of skepticism probably wise with this whole team.        

 

It's true that Oakland probably won't play as well as they did last night much this season.  But that will lead to negative game flow and as a result some garbage-fueled numbers as well.  Jacobs probably has the most to lose from the team's general performance slipping.  Put another way, I don't see many games in which Carr can throw under 30 times this season.

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6 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

It's true that Oakland probably won't play as well as they did last night much this season.  But that will lead to negative game flow and as a result some garbage-fueled numbers as well.  Jacobs probably has the most to lose from the team's general performance slipping.  Put another way, I don't see many games in which Carr can throw under 30 times this season.

A fair counter

 

im open to having my mind changed.   Tyrell will certainly have the opportunity. 

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What are some reasonable projections that we see for Williams based on last night's usage and performance. Is it unreasonable to think that he catch 75/80 Rec-1000 yards and 8 Tds? 

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1 hour ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

What are some reasonable projections that we see for Williams based on last night's usage and performance. Is it unreasonable to think that he catch 75/80 Rec-1000 yards and 8 Tds? 

 

It's certainly doable. If we conservatively say that Carr repeats what he did last year at 381 completions,19 tds and 4000 yards, you'd have to think Tyrell could get those catch and yardage numbers.

The kicker is that it looks like Carr will have a much better year than last year. Cook on this offense last year had 68-900-6 as the #1 option. Of course they play different positions but it should give you a floor on Tyrell's numbers.

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2 hours ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

What are some reasonable projections that we see for Williams based on last night's usage and performance. Is it unreasonable to think that he catch 75/80 Rec-1000 yards and 8 Tds? 

Sounds about right.  Same numbers he had the only time he had a chance to be a top option for a team in 16

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9 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Sounds about right.  Same numbers he had the only time he had a chance to be a top option for a team in 16

 

That would make him WR17 in 1/2 PPR last year. I feel like he's got potential to do more given that the OAK offense didn't look like complete dog**** last night, but I'll be more than happy with 1k yards and 7-8tds. 

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2 minutes ago, willwc said:

 

That would make him WR17 in 1/2 PPR last year. I feel like he's got potential to do more given that the OAK offense didn't look like complete dog**** last night, but I'll be more than happy with 1k yards and 7-8tds. 

He definitely could do more.  I mean that was only his second season in the league.  But don't want to greedy from my free agent pickup last week😉

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There is no reason to think he can't put up similar numbers to Amari's best years in Oakland. One might argue there is more talent around Williams now than there was back with Amari's 1st two seasons. Especially if the OLine gets healthier.

He was likely free in a lot of leagues before the AB news and now he is definitely worth the #1 waiver. I'd rank him above Ross because of the looming AJG return in Cinci and also Boyd isn't going away. Cinci might be able to maintain 3 productive WR's though similar to what the Rams do.

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9 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

He was never just a deep threat though.  He was a true WR1 when he had to be in SD the year Allen was out.  He was primarily the deep threat because Keenan Allen was SD/LAC's WR1 and doesn't do a lot of that deep work, plus they use the tight ends and the RBs in the passing game.  So by default Williams got more deep routes (and he's good at them).  But Tyrell Williams is no Ted Ginn type.  He's a good player.

I would tend to agree.  Ty's numbers haven't been great the last two years because he was the # 3 option in the offense.   One of the things I had to convince myself of, was that the Raiders had enough speed at the other WR spots (like JJ Nelson) to keep defenses from focusing too much on Ty.  Carr's best work has been when the Raider's had one of the top OL's in the game.  His last 2 years the OL hasn't been so great. but with the improved OL, Carr should have more time to throw it this year.

I took at look at Ty's size (6' 3") and catching radius -- 98th percentile.  He's taller / longer than both Amare Cooper and Mike Crabtree (who are both 6'1").  Crabtree & Cook particularly were a favorite targets in the red zone., Ty's got the size and leaping ability to be a threat down there too. I was very pumped when he got Carr's first TD pass of the year.  Maybe Denver's D isn't what it was a couple years ago, but they are still very good.  For Tyrell (and the whole team) to perform that well against Denver bodes well for the ROS. 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tyrell-williams/

He's also worked hard to develop his route tree and got a lot of reps with Carr in preseason, since AB missed pretty much the whole of training camp with his drama.  I'm really bullish on him as a #1 option.  He's got speed, catch radius and NOW he'll get the targets. 

All part of the thought process that made me pick him up when the AB getting cut news broke. 

Edited by rocket
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On 9/7/2019 at 9:36 AM, JP_Grizzly said:

Let’s re-introduce Tyrell Williams. 

6’3 204lbs 27yrs old

Arm Length - 33 1/2’(91st percentile)

40 time - 4.48(72nd percentile)

Speed Score - 104.1(82nd percentile)

Burst Score - 130.7(90th percentile)

Agility Score - 10.91(85th percentile)

Catch Radius - 10.41(98th percentile 

Signed 4 yrs/44.3 Mil 22 mil guaranteed 

2016 - 16 gms 12 gms started 119 targets 69 rec 1059 yds 7 tds 15.3 yds/rec 51 yds longest rec

2017 - 16 gms 15 gms started 69 targets 43 rec 728 4 tds 16.9 yds/rec 75 yds longest rec

2018 - 16 gms 10 gms started 65 targets 41 rec 653 yds 5 tds 15.9 yds/rec 75 longest rec

 

From his metrics, past production and how much raiders paid him I think he is good enough to produce value this year and should net you at worst a top 30 performance. 

Get your shares now before it’s too late!!!!

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16 hours ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

What are some reasonable projections that we see for Williams based on last night's usage and performance. Is it unreasonable to think that he catch 75/80 Rec-1000 yards and 8 Tds? 

 

That's reasonable. He's done it before.

 

Tyrell played 100% of the snaps on MNF (55 of 55). Waller had 100% as well.

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I'm really surprised Tye's not getting more buzz around here.  I think he's got gamewinning potential against the Chiefs this week.  The chiefs gave up a ton of WR production (one being a rookie, boxscore linked below) with Nick Foles and a backup rookie QB.  Unlike last week where the Raiders led from the getgo, the Raiders are going to be passing downs alot against the Chiefs.  I might be rash, but I'm playing him over Mike Evans this week...  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401127931   

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I'm surprised he hasn't gotten as much buzz in general. Everyone is hooting and hollering over stone hands John Ross and others when this dude has already had success in the past, and is now the #1 target on what could be a very productive offense.

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Part of the problems was the Chargers were a "small market" team for a long time.  Even last year, they play in a small stadium and LA's reaction to them was kinda meh (their home games had lots of opposing fans).  Plus he was low on the totem pole for # of targets on the Chargers so its kinda understandable.  But Carr's targets got to go somewhere (the top targets from last year are mostly gone), and talent peppered with targets = production.

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4 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

I'm surprised he hasn't gotten as much buzz in general. Everyone is hooting and hollering over stone hands John Ross and others when this dude has already had success in the past, and is now the #1 target on what could be a very productive offense.

I scooped him up the moment the Brown news came out. I'm guessing he was roster'd by many in the community in here thus escaping the hype trains that Ross and Brown are garnering since the both of them were widely not owned. I know many of us were going crazy in the Raiders game day thread about Ty Williams. I was boosting him up the last few pages. Rock solid WR2 ROS with Waller taking away attention and allowing him to take the tops off of defenses.

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Prob not being talked about as much as the waiver folks because he's already owned in most leagues.. but yea expected more buzz for sure after AB left and he put up a great week 1 game. 

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10 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

I'm surprised he hasn't gotten as much buzz in general. Everyone is hooting and hollering over stone hands John Ross and others when this dude has already had success in the past, and is now the #1 target on what could be a very productive offense.

 I take John Ross's big day with a huge grain of salt as well, I'll take my chances on tyrell, could have a top 20 or 15 finish

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33 minutes ago, rocket said:

I'm really surprised Tye's not getting more buzz around here.  I think he's got gamewinning potential against the Chiefs this week.  The chiefs gave up a ton of WR production (one being a rookie, boxscore linked below) with Nick Foles and a backup rookie QB.  Unlike last week where the Raiders led from the getgo, the Raiders are going to be passing downs alot against the Chiefs.  I might be rash, but I'm playing him over Mike Evans this week...  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401127931   

What is there to buzz about? I drafted him in a 10-teamer. He did well. I'm flexing him. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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I think he will up and down. Not really a WR you can throw in your lineup on a weekly basis.

Edited by Pooskay

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Just now, Pooskay said:

I think he will up and down. Not really a WR you can throw in your lineup on a weekly basis.

 

I'll respectfully disagree, I think he would present AT LEAST WR3 consistent value weekly. I'm more bullish and think top 20 finish.

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11 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

I'll respectfully disagree, I think he would present AT LEAST WR3 consistent value weekly. I'm more bullish and think top 20 finish.

 

cosign that .... if the kid stays healthy he's gonna  easily crack top 20. 

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"Tyrell Williams has functioned as one of the league's most-efficient receivers for the entirety of his career, as only Rob Gronkowski (10.4), Tyler Lockett (10.2) and Tyreek Hill (10) have averaged more yards per target than Williams (9.9) among all players with at least 100 targets since 2015."

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-week-2-wrcb-matchups-and-te-analysis?page=2

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5 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

"Tyrell Williams has functioned as one of the league's most-efficient receivers for the entirety of his career, as only Rob Gronkowski (10.4), Tyler Lockett (10.2) and Tyreek Hill (10) have averaged more yards per target than Williams (9.9) among all players with at least 100 targets since 2015."

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-week-2-wrcb-matchups-and-te-analysis?page=2

 

Yards per target is a weird way to measure efficiency.   Edelman and Landry must be terribly inefficient.  

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Yards per target is a weird way to measure efficiency.   Edelman and Landry must be terribly inefficient.  

 

I'd say crude more than weird.  The stat obviously favors deep threats.

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