KilloWertz

Aristides Aquino 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Nobody said drop him.  It’s fair to have people point out flaws so posters can analyze all angles.  If every thread was one big circle jerk it wouldn’t do anyone any good.  He’s had a historic start.  Baseball is a strange game though.  Will be an interesting guy to follow to see who he truly is.

Sometimes you just have to weed through a lot of “#stud” and “#beast” posts to get some actual analysis.  

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15 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

I agree.  I don't think we can just discount the K rate.  Look, he just past Rhys Hoskins for the fastest HR start in league history.  That's super impressive and it should reinforce the power is real.  But we should remember how Rhys Hoskins came out of the gate and it is a good reminder when looking at him now in terms of where is average may go.  Does it mean that Aquino's average will drop dramatically like Hoskins?  No.  But it does serve food for thought and there will be some regression, it's just a matter of where you believe his average will wind up on the spectrum.

Hoskins and Matt Olson went absolute apes*** in second half of 2017, and since then both have been fairly average fantasy contributors.  14 homers in a month is no feat to sneeze at, but you have to be careful sometimes getting excited about the August/September stars.  Pitching by now is watered down, a ton of grocery bag talent in league.  

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Nobody said drop him.  It’s fair to have people point out flaws so posters can analyze all angles.  If every thread was one big circle jerk it wouldn’t do anyone any good.  He’s had a historic start.  Baseball is a strange game though.  Will be an interesting guy to follow to see who he truly is.

I think it's more a reaction to the 'well nice pickup bros but it ain't gonna last sorry' stuff, not the guys who were just offering a counterpoint or two for caution. 

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10 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Hoskins and Matt Olson went absolute apes*** in second half of 2017, and since then both have been fairly average fantasy contributors.  14 homers in a month is no feat to sneeze at, but you have to be careful sometimes getting excited about the August/September stars.  Pitching by now is watered down, a ton of grocery bag talent in league.  

 

Yep. As much as I'm enjoying the ride right now, this guy didn't suddenly go from a low .240s career hitter in the minors (.242 entering 2019) to a .300+ hitter this year. I'm fully expecting his BA to regress this season and next season. Those calling for this guy to hit .270 or .275 next year is just setting themselves up for disappointment, imho.

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1 hour ago, rcarena said:

I think it's more a reaction to the 'well nice pickup bros but it ain't gonna last sorry' stuff, not the guys who were just offering a counterpoint or two for caution. 

Yeah I don't really understand defending the blatant trolling that was going on in this thread, along with misrepresenting his K% and BB%.

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6 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yep. As much as I'm enjoying the ride right now, this guy didn't suddenly go from a low .240s career hitter in the minors (.242 entering 2019) to a .300+ hitter this year. I'm fully expecting his BA to regress this season and next season. Those calling for this guy to hit .270 or .275 next year is just setting themselves up for disappointment, imho.

 

99% of the time I’m with you completely, and I still agree for the most part. Howevah(Stephen a Smith voice), since his swing change, even with a shoulder injury, he has been a 300 guy with big time power. 42 homers in 430 at bats. 

Now of course the swing change was in spring training so the sample size is small, 430 at bats between AAA and the majors. 

I think this is the main disconnect in this thread. The detractors should at least acknowledge that this is a completely different guy than from even last year. 

I also don’t think any of us believe he is a 300 950 OpS guy. But I do believe 265 330 530 is possible

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3 hours ago, BAMADEUCE said:

 

99% of the time I’m with you completely, and I still agree for the most part. Howevah(Stephen a Smith voice), since his swing change, even with a shoulder injury, he has been a 300 guy with big time power. 42 homers in 430 at bats. 

Now of course the swing change was in spring training so the sample size is small, 430 at bats between AAA and the majors. 

I think this is the main disconnect in this thread. The detractors should at least acknowledge that this is a completely different guy than from even last year. 

I also don’t think any of us believe he is a 300 950 OpS guy. But I do believe 265 330 530 is possible

 

I acknowledge the swing change. That’s one big thing that has me excited about his potential, albeit cautiously so. The simple fact is that until he puts up another season with an improved avg, at least, there will be skepticism. I’ll admit, though, that I am normally cautious in my optimism. 

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I'm sorry but wasn't the original criticism that started this bad plate discipline. Not K rate?

He's been a low ball hitter who has no qualm at chasing anything low. Regardless of its on the zone or not. So pitchers first reaction is to try and pound it down and out to chase bad pitches. So if they miss their spot even a little. He can do something with it.

The challenge will be when everyone starts to realize he can't handle elevated fastballs for a lick. Steal strikes throwing up more. 

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15 hours ago, BAMADEUCE said:

99% of the time I’m with you completely, and I still agree for the most part. Howevah(Stephen a Smith voice), since his swing change, even with a shoulder injury, he has been a 300 guy with big time power. 42 homers in 430 at bats. 

Now of course the swing change was in spring training so the sample size is small, 430 at bats between AAA and the majors. 

I think this is the main disconnect in this thread. The detractors should at least acknowledge that this is a completely different guy than from even last year. 

I also don’t think any of us believe he is a 300 950 OpS guy. But I do believe 265 330 530 is possible

It's like deja vu all over again since detractors downplaying a swing change went on and on disbelieving said change and the better results it garnered a few years ago about another hitter.  And the disbelief and nay saying went on for a full year plus until it finally died off.  Guy's name was JD Martinez.

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Another "fastest to X homers" record is broken.  Here's El Castigador after mashing tater #15,

image.thumb.png.32847219bb81480ca5f251c5e90cb51c.png

 

Go ahead and flex, big man, you've earned it.

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44 must be a lucky number.  Aquino and Alvarez are doing the number proud.

Yordan has already obviously established himself as a locked in keeper for dynasty/keeper leagues, but Aquino is doing his best to try to get that status before the season is over as well.

The lack of XBHs for the most part would be the only strange thing with Aquino so far, but when the balls keep flying, oh well.  From what I can tell, without actually looking up his actual exit velocity, it seems most of them are hit hard enough.  I can remember one, maybe two, that was a towering one that just kept going and barely made it out.  Most are crushed, like today's...

 

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Where does this guy go next year, rd 5?  adp will be interesting, League winner like Mondesi last year went earlier, albeit at a different position.

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46 minutes ago, supac720 said:

Where does this guy go next year, rd 5?  adp will be interesting, League winner like Mondesi last year went earlier, albeit at a different position.

Good question.  In my opinion, he’s more similar to matt Olson than mondesi.  I think Olson was going maybe round 8 adp or so.  If things ended today, I’m guessing he’d go earlier than that.  Hoskins comes to mind to, but Hoskins seemed to have a little more rookie hype and pedigree.  

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4 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

44 must be a lucky number.  Aquino and Alvarez are doing the number proud.

The number was long ago made proud by one Hank Aaron.

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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The number was long ago made proud by one Hank Aaron.

Well, yeah, he was ok.  I was just talking about this season. 😀

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12 hours ago, supac720 said:

Where does this guy go next year, rd 5?  adp will be interesting, League winner like Mondesi last year went earlier, albeit at a different position.

Been asking myself that since he started mashing. If his ADP is anywhere under 70 i'm keeping.. I may anyway..

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Lollll this blurb looks like it was written by someone that reads the forums

 

  • Aristides Aquino went 1-for-4, stole a base and drove in two runs against the Phillies on Wednesday.

    He ripped a screaming bouncer down the third base line that plated Josh VanMeter and Joey Votto in the second inning. Aquino is making headlines for his homers but he is not a one-dimensional all-or-nothing slugger by any means. He has a .308 batting average to go with his 15 home runs and 1.096 OPS. He has driven in 37 runs in just 34 games. His 25 percent strikeout rate is quite manageable and nowhere near the likes of Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano or Joey Gallo, all of whom have strikeout rates well over 30 percent. The league average strikeout rate is 22.8 percent this year.

    Sep 4, 2019, 10:42 PM ET
     
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You never know.  Maybe it was.  It'd be an improvement over the usual. 😉

I know I've said this before, but it's nice to see him getting another XBH that's not a HR.  If he proves he can drive the ball more than just over the fence in the final few weeks, that should only drive up his potential stock for next season.

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The slump has arrived. Over the last two weeks, hitting .216-3-2-9-1...over the last week, .130-0-0-1-0.

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

The slump has arrived. Over the last two weeks, hitting .216-3-2-9-1...over the last week, .130-0-0-1-0.

Definitely.  He's been awful, but it had to happen sometime I guess.

I benched him for tonight.  As great as he was for all of us in August, the time has come to park him and hope he turns things around.  I do think there's a chance, but I know I can't afford anymore 0-fers right now.

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It was bound to happen but for the ones who are still in it in fantasy baseball, it couldnt have come at a worse time.

You know once we all bench him, he'll pop 3-4 HRs a week.

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14 minutes ago, Gryfter said:

It was bound to happen but for the ones who are still in it in fantasy baseball, it couldnt have come at a worse time.

You know once we all bench him, he'll pop 3-4 HRs a week.

Looking at the schedule of the Reds and the beginning of his slump, apart from a miracle out of nowhere it's hardly going to happen.

His last HR was against Phillies, 9 or 10 days ago. 2 HR during his last 14 days. For people who are still in their fantasy, it means they are in PO. If you aren't in dynasty league, Aquino could even pop 3 HR tomorrow that it wouldn't justify the waste of time you've had to keep him on your roster so far. Right now he's a guy who can pop HR if you wait but pretty much just like it's the case with a terrible batter like Odor... in my opinion. And guys who would have chosen Odor would have made a better choice those last 2 weeks.

I do believe there is a kind of cosmic karma. The dry period is as dry and awful as the juicy period was juicy and unbelievable. Just like Will Smith was unbelievable when the Dodgers called him and how now he is one of the most terrible catcher. A kind of cosmic karma. Balance. Or whatever else you wanna call it. The aim of those players is to be used while they are hot as hell, and then to throw them away as fast as you picked them up. When you become sentimental and waiting for better days ahead with such players, you pretty much ruin all benefits you got from them when you picked them up for free. If you're in redraft leagues, that's strategically not very worthy to hold them in slump situations when especially when you're in PO. Just ride the hot bats. 

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56 minutes ago, Just_A_PI said:

Looking at the schedule of the Reds and the beginning of his slump, apart from a miracle out of nowhere it's hardly going to happen.

His last HR was against Phillies, 9 or 10 days ago. 2 HR during his last 14 days. For people who are still in their fantasy, it means they are in PO. If you aren't in dynasty league, Aquino could even pop 3 HR tomorrow that it wouldn't justify the waste of time you've had to keep him on your roster so far. Right now he's a guy who can pop HR if you wait but pretty much just like it's the case with a terrible batter like Odor... in my opinion. And guys who would have chosen Odor would have made a better choice those last 2 weeks.

I do believe there is a kind of cosmic karma. The dry period is as dry and awful as the juicy period was juicy and unbelievable. Just like Will Smith was unbelievable when the Dodgers called him and how now he is one of the most terrible catcher. A kind of cosmic karma. Balance. Or whatever else you wanna call it. The aim of those players is to be used while they are hot as hell, and then to throw them away as fast as you picked them up. When you become sentimental and waiting for better days ahead with such players, you pretty much ruin all benefits you got from them when you picked them up for free. If you're in redraft leagues, that's strategically not very worthy to hold them in slump situations when especially when you're in PO. Just ride the hot bats. 

 

Im not in redraft leagues which is why he's still on my team. Cant really go into more detail about OF options or this post will get deleted. Lets just say in 12 team, start 5 OF leagues. there arent many options on the wire. Over the past couple months, I've lost the likes of Dahl, Pence, Domingo.

I am considering benching him next week IF I make it to the finals. Gonna see what he does this weekend. 

Edited by Gryfter

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The slump has arrived, because...baseball. This kid will be just fine, but Ruthian numbers were never part of his long term profile. However, if he continues to develop his plate discipline he's going to be an exciting fantasy league talent going forward. 

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