KilloWertz

Aristides Aquino 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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16 minutes ago, The 7th Beatles said:

 

And the woman sitting directly in front of her doesn't even flinch, haha.

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In a Dynasty league, my buddy was offered Greinke for him straight up and turned it down. I thought that was very unwise. If you're getting a top 20 pitcher for Aquino, at any age, in any format (assuming there's no salaries or anything), I think that's an easy accept for me. Even if Aquino hits, I dont think he's a 300 hitter, probably sub 280 with power, which certainly is valuable, but in today's game doesn't equal an SP1/2 type player. 

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7 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

In a Dynasty league, my buddy was offered Greinke for him straight up and turned it down. I thought that was very unwise. If you're getting a top 20 pitcher for Aquino, at any age, in any format (assuming there's no salaries or anything), I think that's an easy accept for me. Even if Aquino hits, I dont think he's a 300 hitter, probably sub 280 with power, which certainly is valuable, but in today's game doesn't equal an SP1/2 type player. 

 

if he were to get everyday at bats in that lineup, i think owners would be incredibly happy with .260 and 35+ bombs

and your buddy should have taken that deal for sure...lol

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[Posts removed.  The discussion in this thread needs to be centered around Aquino's fantasy outlook, not what you think of other posters or speculation as to what their motivations might be.  Engage with arguments, not the individuals people making them.]

Edited by tonycpsu
Placating pedantic poster.

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[...]

The k rate thing on here (and anywhere fantasy baseball advice is given) is overblown in my opinion. That plate discipline stuff has influenced me to miss out on some great players in the past.  I ignored it about hiura this year but I am one of the guys that missed on Aquino despite reading about him on here as soon as he was called up.  I’d pick him up in a second and I’m sure anyone else, even the “enjoy it while it lasts” people would too.  I’m #jelly.

Edited by tonycpsu
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8 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

There are also cases in which people whined about K rates and were able to avoid guys that would've lost them championships. The board might overstate certain things but using one player as an example of when ignoring the overstated thing actually worked isn't indicative of wider success.

I think things got polarized after all the 'enjoy it while it lasts, suckers!' type stuff and the resulting backlash. 

I doubt many guys with him feel assured in any way they have the next Ken Griffey Jr. I would question those thinking he's not worth rostering at all, though - anyone doing what he has been is worth exploring, particularly when the buzz out of the team's staff is WE THINK THIS GUY IS A SUPERSTAR. 

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Can't say this was a mistake pitch, even if it's another that might not have gotten out without a juiced ball.  Still, it's impressive to see him take an offspeed pitch that was outside to the opposite field with authority.

 

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Oppo Boppo by Big Pun...crickets from the hater section...let's gooooooooooo

13-9-17-.386...14 games...☺

Makin' history

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6 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

 Still, it's impressive to see him take an offspeed pitch that was outside to the opposite field with authority. 

 

 

Yeah, my concern with my armchair video scouting has been the possibility that his open stance -> closed stance timing mechanism could get disrupted by off speed stuff, but I think that's his third HR on an off speed pitch.  Good to see.

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Can he not see out of his left eye or something?  Trying think of a reason that crazy new wide-open stance could help him tap into his power so drastically this year and that's all I can come up. Because as @tonycpsu alluded to, mechanically it looks like it would lead to worse contact, not better. Amazing stuff

Edited by cs3

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21 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Can he not see out of his left eye or something?  Trying think of a reason that crazy new wide-open stance could help him tap into his power so drastically this year and that's all I can come up. Because as @tonycpsu alluded to, mechanically it looks like it would lead to worse contact, not better. Amazing stuff

Decent read here:

https://www.mlb.com/news/aristides-aquino-riding-stance-change-to-success

Edited by Theoneupper
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2 hours ago, dfstout said:

Oppo Boppo by Big Pun...crickets from the hater section...let's gooooooooooo

13-9-17-.386...14 games...☺

Makin' history

 

After 14 games Austin Riley was on his way to the Hall of Fame too. I like the kid, don't get me wrong, but after he goes into a 2 week funk watch what happens to this thread.

-Time to cut bait

-He's garbage

Rest assured it's going to happen. The league will adjust to him, then he will need to adjust to the league. That's when we'll kinda get an idea of his ceiling. If he can keep that K rate under 30%, with the power he generates he could be a fun one to watch over the coming years. I don't know it for a fact, but I also understand he's a pretty good defender and has a gun for an arm. That's always a plus if the kid can catch the ball, because if you can't things don't always go your way (see Frazier, Clint) 

Edited by kwolf68
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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

Can he not see out of his left eye or something?  Trying think of a reason that crazy new wide-open stance could help him tap into his power so drastically this year and that's all I can come up. Because as @tonycpsu alluded to, mechanically it looks like it would lead to worse contact, not better. Amazing stuff

 

Maybe he needs both eyes for that depth perception.

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Didn’t Andres Galaraga switch to an open stance like that and revitalize his career for a bit?

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10 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

 

After 14 games Austin Riley was on his way to the Hall of Fame too. I like the kid, don't get me wrong, but after he goes into a 2 week funk watch what happens to this thread.

-Time to cut bait

-He's garbage

Rest assured it's going to happen. The league will adjust to him, then he will need to adjust to the league. That's when we'll kinda get an idea of his ceiling. If he can keep that K rate under 30%, with the power he generates he could be a fun one to watch over the coming years. I don't know it for a fact, but I also understand he's a pretty good defender and has a gun for an arm. That's always a plus if the kid can catch the ball, because if you can't things don't always go your way (see Frazier, Clint) 

 

So you're telling us when he slumps, people will be less happy with owning him?  That is some rock-solid, invaluable analysis.  I don't think anybody is expecting him to hit 9 HR every 14 games throughout his career. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

So you're telling us when he slumps, people will be less happy with owning him?  That is some rock-solid, invaluable analysis.  I don't think anybody is expecting him to hit 9 HR every 14 games throughout his career. 

 

WAIT WHAT!? You mean I can't expect him to pace his current 104hr's/season? HE'S JUNK!!

Edited by MSkibisky

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16 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

 

So you're telling us when he slumps, people will be less happy with owning him?  That is some rock-solid, invaluable analysis.  I don't think anybody is expecting him to hit 9 HR every 14 games throughout his career. 

 

 

I didn’t get that at all from that post.  All he’s saying is that people might be tempted to cut bait after the inevitable flood of “he sucks...cut him” comments.  That would be the toughest time to hold and a stabilization should come after that.  This guy could range between Eric Thames and Jose Bautista (great comp of a come out of nowhere guy) and people’s fantasy decisions  shouldn’t be influenced by snap judgement posts on here.

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16 hours ago, cs3 said:

Can he not see out of his left eye or something?  Trying think of a reason that crazy new wide-open stance could help him tap into his power so drastically this year and that's all I can come up. Because as @tonycpsu alluded to, mechanically it looks like it would lead to worse contact, not better. Amazing stuff

With some people the open stance helps them track the ball and spin better with both eyes over a more closed stance. Worked for Andres Galaraga

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18 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Can't say this was a mistake pitch, even if it's another that might not have gotten out without a juiced ball.  Still, it's impressive to see him take an offspeed pitch that was outside to the opposite field with authority.

 

 

I’m sorry but this is what’s wrong with baseball right now.  There’s no reason that should be a hr, its a poorly hit fly ball, not a driven ball to the opposite field.  Bring the old balls back.

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It may have been asked elsewhere. What is with all the negativity with this guy?  It’s true he could be boom or bust. I say just enjoy the production. Not easy to get this kind of power so late in the season.

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12 minutes ago, coleporter said:

It may have been asked elsewhere. What is with all the negativity with this guy?  It’s true he could be boom or bust. I say just enjoy the production. Not easy to get this kind of power so late in the season.

Because he materialized out of nowhere relative to prospect lists, I'd imagine, and guys who don't have him thus have some ammo to rain on the parade. 

They may be right in the long run, but anyone who's benefited from him has so much surplus value by now that if they had to drop/bench him by Monday, they still got over on the 'flash in the pan' crowd. 

Edited by rcarena
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9 minutes ago, coleporter said:

It may have been asked elsewhere. What is with all the negativity with this guy?  It’s true he could be boom or bust. I say just enjoy the production. Not easy to get this kind of power so late in the season.

Some people just don't believe I guess.

Not entirely joking there.  The fact that he'd been horrible in the minors until this season probably doesn't help, although his stance/swing change gives his breakout in the minors some believability.  His K-rate maybe, but that wasn't that bad in AAA and it's very reasonable in the majors.

There's obviously no guarantee he continues on his path to stardom, but it wouldn't be outrageous either.  It's not like he doesn't have legitimate ability.

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7 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Some people just don't believe I guess.

Not entirely joking there.  The fact that he'd been horrible in the minors until this season probably doesn't help, although his stance/swing change gives his breakout in the minors some believability.  His K-rate maybe, but that wasn't that bad in AAA and it's very reasonable in the majors.

There's obviously no guarantee he continues on his path to stardom, but it wouldn't be outrageous either.  It's not like he doesn't have legitimate ability.

I mean I know AAA is much tougher to pitch in across the board this year, but the International League was always the one where hitters tended to have to really earn their numbers, and a lot of those guys of late have seen their numbers play up in the majors (Judge and Sanchez were 2 of them). This guy roasted that league. 

Walk rate isn't amazing, but he's also not horrific with K rate at either level this year. 

Edited by rcarena

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37 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Some people just don't believe I guess.

Not entirely joking there.  The fact that he'd been horrible in the minors until this season probably doesn't help, although his stance/swing change gives his breakout in the minors some believability.  His K-rate maybe, but that wasn't that bad in AAA and it's very reasonable in the majors.

There's obviously no guarantee he continues on his path to stardom, but it wouldn't be outrageous either.  It's not like he doesn't have legitimate ability.

 

You have to look a bit deeper than K-rate. A high K% in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing if the guy is also walking a lot and shows plus plate discipline. It's the combination of the high K% and the lack of walks in the minors that has people very skeptical of Aquino and his ability to produce long-term.

 

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