KilloWertz

Aristides Aquino 2019 Outlook

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22 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

You have to look a bit deeper than K-rate. A high K% in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing if the guy is also walking a lot and shows plus plate discipline. It's the combination of the high K% and the lack of walks in the minors that has people very skeptical of Aquino and his ability to produce long-term.

 

It's one of the best indicators to look for, but that said 7%-25% bb to k in the minors this year, while less than ideal, doesn't seem like a death sentence. It's like like he's Tim Anderson and just never walks. It'll be something he has to combat, sure, but there are guys in the majors who have made that kind of split work (if he can carry it forward).

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, rcarena said:

It's one of the best indicators to look for, but that said 7%-25% bb to k in the minors this year, while less than ideal, doesn't seem like a death sentence. It's like like he's Tim Anderson and just never walks. It'll be something he has to combat, sure, but there are guys in the majors who have made that kind of split work (if he can carry it forward).

 

 

 

Don't care about K-BB. I look at O-Swing, Contact and Z-Contact. Granted that is not perfect either. Some players have swings taylor made for crushing low pitches. Others are made to turn on high pitches. So they are out of the zone, but not out of the players ideal swing path. A player understanding his own plate coverage capabilities does naturally happen for a lot of young players with experience. Regardless of their eye/aggressiveness.

 

It's just a matter that your depreciate your quality of contact the more bad pitches you bite at. So his raw power does not play as much as it should in the long run. You can make up swing at junk if you have great natural feel for contact.(So Volume) Just like you can make up for lack of contact feel via patience, solid eye. "Stay within your zone". Whatever that is.

 

You will rarely ever see someone hit much over 30 HRs with awful O-Swings combined with low contact rates. Javy Baez is an exception. Javy Baez bat speed, he does not have. Now this super juiced ball might be changing that standard and i'm willing to admit it can probably happen more these days.

He is impressed me with those off-speed pitches he's crushed. Flashing some decent bat control. Do think he is someone who will stick around in the majors and not just fade into noting.

Edited by Slatykamora
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2 hours ago, rcarena said:

It's one of the best indicators to look for, but that said 7%-25% bb to k in the minors this year, while less than ideal, doesn't seem like a death sentence. It's like like he's Tim Anderson and just never walks. It'll be something he has to combat, sure, but there are guys in the majors who have made that kind of split work (if he can carry it forward).

 

 

 

 

It's really not one of the best indicators. Guys who walk a lot and have tremendous plate discipline often strike out more because they're going deeper into counts, seeing more pitches, etc. 

A guy who strikes out a lot but walks a ton likely has great plate discipline, it's more of a contact skills and going deep into counts issue than anything (i.e the case with Aaron Judge). 

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3 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Don't care about K-BB. I look at O-Swing, Contact and Z-Contact. Granted that is not perfect either. Some players have swings taylor made for crushing low pitches. Others are made to turn on high pitches. So they are out of the zone, but not out of the players ideal swing path. A player understanding his own plate coverage capabilities does naturally happen for a lot of young players with experience. Regardless of their eye/aggressiveness.

 

It's just a matter that your depreciate your quality of contact the more bad pitches you bite at. So his raw power does not play as much as it should in the long run. You can make up swing at junk if you have great natural feel for contact.(So Volume) Just like you can make up for lack of contact feel via patience, solid eye. "Stay within your zone". Whatever that is.

 

You will rarely ever see someone hit much over 30 HRs with awful O-Swings combined with low contact rates. Javy Baez is an exception. Javy Baez bat speed, he does not have. Now this super juiced ball might be changing that standard and i'm willing to admit it can probably happen more these days.

He is impressed me with those off-speed pitches he's crushed. Flashing some decent bat control. Do think he is someone who will stick around in the majors and not just fade into noting.

I completely get what you are saying, but it's currently working with a similar profile with hitters such as Eddie Rosario, Jose Iglesias and Tim Anderson as well.  I'd need to see exactly where the outside of the zone pitches are to show me more of a profile and whether it was sustainable long term or even short term.  

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8 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Big Pun with another punishing bomb!

 

Devin Hester you are RIDICULOUS 

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On 8/15/2019 at 4:22 PM, absknicks said:

 

You have to look a bit deeper than K-rate. A high K% in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing if the guy is also walking a lot and shows plus plate discipline. It's the combination of the high K% and the lack of walks in the minors that has people very skeptical of Aquino and his ability to produce long-term.

 

Well, he's got 10 homers already, so I'm not going to overvalue K/BB ratio. How many homers does it take for what he's doing now to become more important? 20? 30?

Edited by miasma16

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7 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Well, he's got 10 homers already, so I'm not going to overvalue K/BB ratio. How many homers does it take for what he's doing now to become more important? 20? 30?

40 or bust... 😉

I'm obviously an Aquino "supporter", but I do get what the person is saying to an extent.  The thing is, Aquino's K-rate in the majors isn't bad.  It's not like he's going up there and striking out when he's not hitting a HR.  He actually hadn't struck out in 3 straight games going into last night.  There are plenty of hitters that produce and don't have a high walk rate.

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8 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Well, he's got 10 homers already, so I'm not going to overvalue K/BB ratio. How many homers does it take for what he's doing now to become more important? 20? 30?

We're well past the point you set and forget, for now. When he encounters a slow period is when we react, unless you can get a crazy sell high type thing. 

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He hasn't gone more than 1 game between homers since his call up. K rate and walk rate aren't nearly as bad as people are saying here - both not far off league averages.

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1 hour ago, KilloWertz said:

40 or bust... 😉

I'm obviously an Aquino "supporter", but I do get what the person is saying to an extent.  The thing is, Aquino's K-rate in the majors isn't bad.  It's not like he's going up there and striking out when he's not hitting a HR.  He actually hadn't struck out in 3 straight games going into last night.  There are plenty of hitters that produce and don't have a high walk rate.

I love Aquino, but can't for the life of me tell what kind of hitter he will be once he cools off, and he definitely will cool off.  Nobody is gonna have a HR/FB rate over 50%.  K rate is sustainable at around 25%, which in this day and age is palatable.  7.3% walk rate isn't ideal, but I've seen a lot of his ABs.  He does swing at a lot of balls, but they are fringe pitches mostly from what I have seen.  Anything that is grossly just pitching around him he tends to take.  Think it may improve soon the way he is hitting.  The one thing that scares me the most from his data is his average exit velocity.  He has that many hard hit HRs, yet his average exit velocity is only 88.1 mph, which is just slightly above average, while his average barrels is grossly above average at 24.3%.  Partially makes me believe that the HRs may mostly be a mirage, although I really wish that isn't the case.  

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On 8/10/2019 at 12:10 AM, absknicks said:

Enjoy it while it lasts. No plate discipline. Saw him miss multiple pitches by 3+ feet last night. And that was against Tyler Chatwood. 

👀 

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4 hours ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

👀

 

It's been a week since that was posted. 

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If K rates normalize around 60 ABs his K problems have been grossly exaggerated. 24% isn't bad at all. This guy might be a stud.

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3 hours ago, bradwatson said:

If K rates normalize around 60 ABs his K problems have been grossly exaggerated. 24% isn't bad at all. This guy might be a stud.

 

Its PA, but just because that’s when a statistic begins to stabilize doesn’t mean it’s an accurate representation of a skillset. Bad hitters have awesome 60 PA samples all the time. 

 

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11 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

It's been a week since that was posted. 

True, but I'm guessing it's continuing because it's still obvious you still don't believe.

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

 

Its PA, but just because that’s when a statistic begins to stabilize doesn’t mean it’s an accurate representation of a skillset. Bad hitters have awesome 60 PA samples all the time. 

 

Guess we can't use his 24% K rate over 60 PAs then. How about we use his 25% K rate from the rest of the year? Or his 25% K rate from the year before? Seems like there's absolutely 0 substance to this argument, so I'm not sure why you keep trying to misrepresent his K rate or his walk rate. They're not anywhere near extremes, and the great irony is that you could point to regression a lot more effectively with other advanced stats, if you knew how to use them instead of belaboring his K rate.

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

Guess we can't use his 24% K rate over 60 PAs then. How about we use his 25% K rate from the rest of the year? Or his 25% K rate from the year before? Seems like there's absolutely 0 substance to this argument, so I'm not sure why you keep trying to misrepresent his K rate or his walk rate. They're not anywhere near extremes, and the great irony is that you could point to regression a lot more effectively with other advanced stats, if you knew how to use them instead of belaboring his K rate.

 

What argument? That just because a statistic begins to stabilize at a certain number doesn't mean it's an accurate representation of a skillset? I never said anything about Aquino's K rate, I talked about his plate skills as a whole, which I've tried to explain go far beyond just K%. 

You're letting your personal bitterness affect your thinking here. 

 

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Aquino is 5 for his last 25, with 4 home runs. I think he will be a “feast or famine” hitter, with a low average but a lot of home runs.

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

 

What argument? That just because a statistic begins to stabilize at a certain number doesn't mean it's an accurate representation of a skillset? I never said anything about Aquino's K rate, I talked about his plate skills as a whole, which I've tried to explain go far beyond just K%. 

You're letting your personal bitterness affect your thinking here. 

 

I don’t think all of the criticism you’re taking here is justified, and that’s coming from someone who owns Aquino in 4 leagues. I don’t think anyone on either side of this argument should be taking any victory laps here yet. What he’s done so far is pretty remarkable but there are still several ways this can go rest of season. I’m riding this train until it crashes but I think there’s a better chance that rest of season he’s not a top 250 player than there is of him being a top 100 player.

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5 hours ago, Ohiohaybaler said:

Aquino is 5 for his last 25, with 4 home runs. I think he will be a “feast or famine” hitter, with a low average but a lot of home runs.

 

It's funny cause he was striking out more a few days ago when he was lacing dongs than he is now when he's struggling to get a base hit

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