KilloWertz

Aristides Aquino 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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6 hours ago, absknicks said:

You're letting your personal bitterness affect your thinking here. 

Anything you can say to divert from your bad argument.

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6 hours ago, absknicks said:

I never said anything about Aquino's K rate,

Sure.

On 8/15/2019 at 4:22 PM, absknicks said:

You have to look a bit deeper than K-rate. A high K% in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing if the guy is also walking a lot and shows plus plate discipline. It's the combination of the high K% and the lack of walks in the minors that has people very skeptical of Aquino and his ability to produce long-term.

I suppose we're all a bit confused. His K rate and BB rate are passable, despite what you never said above. He's hitting a homer every game, so he passes the eye test. So why are you trying to rag on his plate skills? From both a mathematical and observational standpoint, he seems just fine at the plate.

Edited by miasma16

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5 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

It's funny cause he was striking out more a few days ago when he was lacing dongs than he is now when he's struggling to get a base hit

I hate to bring up someone on ‘roids but Sammy Sosa struck out a lot, especially early in his career, and the Cubs decided to live with that. Turns out, Sosa thrived, high K rate and all.

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League winner that everyone got for free. Best kind of acquisition 

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46 minutes ago, supac720 said:

League winner that everyone got for free. Best kind of acquisition 

 But 'enjoy it while it lasts' tho, right?

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I know it's only 79 PAs, but his k% is 22.9 and his bb% is 8.9. Those aren't bad numbers. 

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

I know it's only 79 PAs, but his k% is 22.9 and his bb% is 8.9. Those aren't bad numbers. 

 

In this day and age I consider anything below a 25% k rate as great

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8 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

I know it's only 79 PAs, but his k% is 22.9 and his bb% is 8.9. Those aren't bad numbers. 

 

Those are awesome numbers for a power hitter, but I doubt that's sustainable although his AAA rates this year were around 27% which I argue is workable at the MLB level. Just so he stays there, he'll be fine.

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4 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

Those are awesome numbers for a power hitter, but I doubt that's sustainable although his AAA rates this year were around 27% which I argue is workable at the MLB level. Just so he stays there, he'll be fine.

Yep, someone was just saying that he had a high K-rate and lack of walks, which is untrue.

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On 8/24/2019 at 7:17 PM, kwolf68 said:

 

Those are awesome numbers for a power hitter, but I doubt that's sustainable although his AAA rates this year were around 27% which I argue is workable at the MLB level. Just so he stays there, he'll be fine.

 

His AAA k rate this year was 25.1%. 

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23 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Yep, someone was just saying that he had a high K-rate and lack of walks, which is untrue.

 

Yep it really was. Had he come up at 33-34% then I'd have been worried, but his K rate is VERY respectable. I wasn't a buyer at first, but I think this kid is legit. I don't love his routes in RF, but I do like his arm, he has a bit of speed to snag a base or two and of course his power is freakish. [...] 

Edited by tonycpsu
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Have to admit, was wrong on questioning his contact ability being too bad for aggressive approach. He's done so much better off breaking and off-speed then i expected.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Obviously this guy isn't going to keep hitting a HR ever 6.5 ABs or driving in a run every 3 ABs or hit .329...but I am really excited about his potential in 2020. Hopefully MLB dials the ball back some, but I still love his potential to hit 35+ in the middle of the order with a BA that won't kill his owners. 

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SwStr of 16.8. Tread lightly.

Edited by jspeco9
Typo

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3 hours ago, jspeco9 said:

SwStr of 16.8. Tread lightly.

 

Less than Baez, Franmil, Hiura, Chavis, etc. 

Not optimal but when you are second in the league in Brls/PA %, I'm fine with it. Top 6: Cruz, Aquino, Gary, Yordan, Gallo, & Trout

Other awesome stats:

- 5th in Brls/BBE (barrels/batted ball events)

- 4th most max exit velocity 

- Better MLB BB/K than his MiLB ratio

 

An adjustment period will come but it's an amazing ride.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

 

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14 minutes ago, Fenamo said:

 

Less than Baez, Franmil, Hiura, Chavis, etc. 

Not optimal but when you are second in the league in Brls/PA %, I'm fine with it. Top 6: Cruz, Aquino, Gary, Yordan, Gallo, & Trout

Other awesome stats:

- 5th in Brls/BBE (barrels/batted ball events)

- 4th most max exit velocity 

- Better MLB BB/K than his MiLB ratio

 

An adjustment period will come but it's an amazing ride.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

 

*Hiura and Chavis are also rookies. We know he's not Hiura and he gets jammed up more often then Franmil. 

*Stat Cast data is great at showing how much someone is translating his power in games. Not so much for BA ranges. 

*Saying his just under 100 PA MLB K/BB is better than the MILB is more an argument it will regress then a positive. That stabilization point is an overall mark, it pools all players and we know that younger players tend to be more volatile then vets. 

 

I've become more optimistic he is going to get a lot of his raw power in games long term then before. He can keep his K% below 30, etc etc. That doesn't mean his BA wont tank hard. He's had a decent amount of weak contact between those crushed FBs and it's mostly been Fly-ball batted ball outcomes so far.

 

Things can change for a rookie with such a little MLB exposure though. The SwStr is still a red flag, but it's not a death sentence or anything.

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I don’t really care what his numbers are right now, his swing is ugly.  I said the same thing about vogelbach and look where he is now.  Pitchers will learn how to exploit him and with a swing like that he most likely won’t be able to adjust.  I’m not saying don’t ride the wave, I’m actually mad cause I had him and dropped right before his first 3 hr game.  Long run though just don’t pay for him, guess that’s all I’m saying.

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10 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I don’t really care what his numbers are right now, his swing is ugly.  I said the same thing about vogelbach and look where he is now.  Pitchers will learn how to exploit him and with a swing like that he most likely won’t be able to adjust.  I’m not saying don’t ride the wave, I’m actually mad cause I had him and dropped right before his first 3 hr game.  Long run though just don’t pay for him, guess that’s all I’m saying.

you know who else had an ugly swing? 

Image result for vladimir guerrero gif

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Probably the ugliest swing to ever make it to the Hall of Fame honestly.  Josh Bell would probably be up there as well for current players, and while he has been awful in the second half aside from a week or two, he still hits balls really hard with a ridiculous swing a decent amount.

I don't think a ton of people are paying for Aquino.  I think most people are just sitting back and seeing where this goes.  I wouldn't write him off completely regardless of what you think of his swing though.

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Anyone who picked him up in a keeper league is certainly a lightly-invested owner, especially those leagues in which players have rounds attached to them (depending on league rules). [...] 

Edited by tonycpsu
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26 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Probably the ugliest swing to ever make it to the Hall of Fame honestly.  Josh Bell would probably be up there as well for current players, and while he has been awful in the second half aside from a week or two, he still hits balls really hard with a ridiculous swing a decent amount.

I don't think a ton of people are paying for Aquino.  I think most people are just sitting back and seeing where this goes.  I wouldn't write him off completely regardless of what you think of his swing though.

 

Absolutely not. The promising thing about him is that this new stance and swing is undefeated. He didn’t make the change till this preseason and he has torn up AAA and this sting in the bigs. The tools have always been there. His ceiling is quite high

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So here's my breakdown on Aquino.  I get most people are calling for regression on him.  Which obviously the guy isn't going to slug .800 all season.

 

So while I understand there is a small sample size here you also have to take into consideration the strength of the sample.  Also a key note about Aquino is in spring training he opened up his batting stance and things just started to "click" for him.  Notice he he OPSed just a shade under 1k in AAA.

 

So while Aquino is certain to not maintain this, what would his 2020 season look like?  .275 with 40 HRs (I think this is conservative honestly).  That's essentially a younger Giancarlo Stanton minus all the injury history.  

Edited by FouLLine
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4 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

So here's my breakdown on Aquino.  I get most people are calling for regression on him.  Which obviously the guy isn't going to slug .800 all season.

 

So while I understand there is a small sample size here you also have to take into consideration the strength of the sample.  Also a key note about Aquino is in spring training he opened up his batting stance and things just started to "click" for him.  Notice he he OPSed just a shade under 1k in AAA.

 

So while Aquino is certain to not maintain this, what would his 2020 season look like?  .275 with 40 HRs (I think this is conservative honestly).  That's essentially a younger Giancarlo Stanton minus all the injury history.  

Funny, I was going to post a .265-.270 avg with 40HRs.

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24 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Funny, I was going to post a .265-.270 avg with 40HRs.

Funny, I was going to post .260-.275 with 40 HRs... 😉

Seriously, I don't think that's unreasonable, which would make him a very interesting pick and an obvious keeper in keeper/dynasty leagues.  Not sure how many people are ready to declare him all that yet with such a small sample size, but the potential is obviously there.  Add in the possibility of roughly 10 SBs, and things get interesting, although I still need to see what he does for longer than roughly a month before I'm ready to project him to have Top 5 Round value.

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