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Terry McLaurin 2019 Outlook

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6 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

I think you just throw out yesterday's game.  Pretend it didn't happen.  So many things going against him that won't be the case going forward.

I do think this is largely true, but the QB situation is still a legitimate concern. I hope I'm wrong but I see him dropping off big time ROS. 

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I feel disgusting about possibly starting someone from an awful team on TNF, just feels like a recipe for disaster. I'm very tempted though. How are we feeling about him this week? Vikings secondary can definitely be beaten 

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7 minutes ago, Broncos132 said:

I feel disgusting about possibly starting someone from an awful team on TNF, just feels like a recipe for disaster. I'm very tempted though. How are we feeling about him this week? Vikings secondary can definitely be beaten 

My Prediction 5 for 75: Serviceable, I have to start him so maybe it's wishful thinking 

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9 minutes ago, Broncos132 said:

I feel disgusting about possibly starting someone from an awful team on TNF, just feels like a recipe for disaster. I'm very tempted though. How are we feeling about him this week? Vikings secondary can definitely be beaten 

 

Despite it being TNF, I think this game is as good as any other to start him.  It's been already stated that the Vikings secondary looked pretty bad, even Xavier Rhodes.  Case is still starting, and Washington will probably get shellacked playing at Minn, so there should be garbage time.  The Vikings are going to score at will against Wash, so Wash will abandon the run quickly.

It sets up pretty decently for Terry.  I peg him around 16-18 among WR plays this week, so if you have 2 better than that, then you can sit him (or flex him).  Otherwise, he's a start.

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Bad teams have a tendency to melt all the way down on TNF. I'm not sure Terry is a must-start after seeing how low the floor can be. I wouldn't fault anyone for just shrugging off yesterday's dud and starting him anyway, but I'm pretty sure I have three better plays in Week 8.

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4 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

Bad teams have a tendency to melt all the way down on TNF. I'm not sure Terry is a must-start after seeing how low the floor can be. I wouldn't fault anyone for just shrugging off yesterday's dud and starting him anyway, but I'm pretty sure I have three better plays in Week 8.

 

Three better plays?  You must have some good WRs.  Terry is currently #12 overall in standard scoring, even with the bye.  If you go by average points per game, he's #10.  This is including yesterday's debacle.

He's quite a bit lower in PPR, so maybe that's the disconnect.

Edited by Brownsfan74
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4 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Three better plays?  You must have some good WRs.  Terry is currently #12 overall in standard scoring, even with the bye.  If you go by average points per game, he's #10.  This is including yesterday's debacle.

He's quite a bit lower in PPR, so maybe that's the disconnect.

 

Why wouldn't he have 3 better plays? Nobody outside of 14 team leagues or superflexes drafted McLaurin and it's reasonable to assume he drafted 3 good WRs or 2 and made another great pickup. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

Bad teams have a tendency to melt all the way down on TNF. I'm not sure Terry is a must-start after seeing how low the floor can be. I wouldn't fault anyone for just shrugging off yesterday's dud and starting him anyway, but I'm pretty sure I have three better plays in Week 8.

It was a monsoon against one of the best defenses in football. I’m not sure It’s fair say that was his true floor. 

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3 minutes ago, tatddy said:

 

Why wouldn't he have 3 better plays? Nobody outside of 14 team leagues or superflexes drafted McLaurin and it's reasonable to assume he drafted 3 good WRs or 2 and made another great pickup. 

 

 

 

Yeah but his two receivers both have to be playing at a near WR1 level at this point.  How many teams are carrying two WR1's?  

It's not impossible.  If he went zero RB then he probably does have 2 better plays.  But most balanced teams are not going to have that kind of depth where you can easily sit a WR who is 10th overall in scoring (standard).

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4 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Yeah but his two receivers both have to be playing at a near WR1 level at this point.  How many teams are carrying two WR1's?  

It's not impossible.  If he went zero RB then he probably does have 2 better plays.  But most balanced teams are not going to have that kind of depth where you can easily sit a WR who is 10th overall in scoring (standard).

 

To address the first question. It's entirely feasible. Draft can dictate going WR WR to start (my league has 3 starting WR spots and 2 rb so it happens). You can also make a great mid round pick and have a guy like Godwin as your 2nd WR. 

Juat because Terry is currently the 10th overall WR doesn't mean he'll finish as the 10th overall and while past performance will factor into future decisions it certainly doesn't dictate them. I love and own Terry but he's not a 5 year vet bonifide WR1. He's an amazingly talented rookie on a terrible team with a not good QB.

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1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I do think this is largely true, but the QB situation is still a legitimate concern. I hope I'm wrong but I see him dropping off big time ROS. 

All of his big games have been with keenum. Qb isn't the problem. His problem is the new coach and his love of running the football. Peterson has gotten 43 carries in the two games since gruden was fired. That's a ton considering Washington isn't exactly moving the ball downfield on long drives. 

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1 minute ago, tatddy said:

 

To address the first question. It's entirely feasible. Draft can dictate going WR WR to start (my league has 3 starting WR spots and 2 rb so it happens). You can also make a great mid round pick and have a guy like Godwin as your 2nd WR. 

Juat because Terry is currently the 10th overall WR doesn't mean he'll finish as the 10th overall and while past performance will factor into future decisions it certainly doesn't dictate them. I love and own Terry but he's not a 5 year vet bonifide WR1. He's an amazingly talented rookie on a terrible team with a not good QB.

 

Your first point...I just said that (haha).  I said zero RB would produce such a team.

As for your 2nd, I do agree.  I was getting into it with a bunch of DJ Chark owners in his thread about how Chark does not have the credibility of a Hopkins or Thomas just because of his hot start.  Same applies to Terry.  Having said that...McLaurin has earned SOME level of trust.  I've been pegging him as a solid WR2 pretty much every week due to the concerns you listed.  Still...even there...if you didn't go WR-WR to start your draft, I still think it's hard to have 2 WRs that are better than him unless you really hit on both.  Heck, even if you went WR-WR to start, if your first pick was Davante or Juju or another bust (so far), then you're playing McLaurin.

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28 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Your first point...I just said that (haha).  I said zero RB would produce such a team.

As for your 2nd, I do agree.  I was getting into it with a bunch of DJ Chark owners in his thread about how Chark does not have the credibility of a Hopkins or Thomas just because of his hot start.  Same applies to Terry.  Having said that...McLaurin has earned SOME level of trust.  I've been pegging him as a solid WR2 pretty much every week due to the concerns you listed.  Still...even there...if you didn't go WR-WR to start your draft, I still think it's hard to have 2 WRs that are better than him unless you really hit on both.  Heck, even if you went WR-WR to start, if your first pick was Davante or Juju or another bust (so far), then you're playing McLaurin.


Well I sure wouldn’t play McLaurin this week over JujU

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32 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

All of his big games have been with keenum. Qb isn't the problem. His problem is the new coach and his love of running the football. Peterson has gotten 43 carries in the two games since gruden was fired. That's a ton considering Washington isn't exactly moving the ball downfield on long drives. 

True. Just a lot of uncertainty with the offense in general. Makes it tough to be confident rolling him out there.

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54 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Your first point...I just said that (haha).  I said zero RB would produce such a team.

As for your 2nd, I do agree.  I was getting into it with a bunch of DJ Chark owners in his thread about how Chark does not have the credibility of a Hopkins or Thomas just because of his hot start.  Same applies to Terry.  Having said that...McLaurin has earned SOME level of trust.  I've been pegging him as a solid WR2 pretty much every week due to the concerns you listed.  Still...even there...if you didn't go WR-WR to start your draft, I still think it's hard to have 2 WRs that are better than him unless you really hit on both.  Heck, even if you went WR-WR to start, if your first pick was Davante or Juju or another bust (so far), then you're playing McLaurin.

I don’t know I went WR,RB,RB,RB and I’ll probably be sitting him. Team in sig. I do agree that he should be a real solid guy to own. 

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Redskins fan here. I watch all the games, and I don’t own McLaurin, so I think I can be fairly objective.

 

A few points I’d like to make:

 

1) Yesterday was the weather.

 

However...

2) Callahan stated when he took over that they were going to go super run-heavy. He started yesterday’s game with 10 straight runs on the first drive, and on 3rd down in FG range threw a shovel pass.  He is not as good (or aggressive) a play-caller as Gruden, and he is a former O-Line coach, so he is naturally going to want to run, run, run. Volume for Terry is going to be down ROS.

3) The defense has been playing better the last 3 weeks.  Even in the Pats blowout, they frustrated them for a half. Eventually they wore down bc the offense couldn’t sustain drives, but they are showing some signs of a lesser version of the solid unit they were expected to be coming into the season. This will obviously lead to less shootout potential.

4) Haskins will start at some point. Snyder will eventually get his way... and believe me, Haskins SUCKS.  I don’t care about the OSU connection, this will be a negative for McLaurin.

 

Terry has been the one bright spot in a terrible season for the Skins... the kid is a stud.  But I’m not bullish on his fantasy value ROS due to points 2, 3 & 4 above.  

He’s definitely startable, but I’d temper expectations.

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2 hours ago, Kaii23 said:

All of his big games have been with keenum. Qb isn't the problem. His problem is the new coach and his love of running the football. Peterson has gotten 43 carries in the two games since gruden was fired. That's a ton considering Washington isn't exactly moving the ball downfield on long drives. 

 

The 1st game with a new coach and Terry ate, the 2nd game was in about as bad of a rain storm you could get. That 9'ers game should be ignored due to extreme conditions. QB is a problem because if the coach decides to go another direction we don't know how that will impact F1's target share, and if those will be quality targets. That's like having a piano hanging over his fantasy values head. 

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3 minutes ago, Mr.STD said:

 

The 1st game with a new coach and Terry ate, the 2nd game was in about as bad of a rain storm you could get. That 9'ers game should be ignored due to extreme conditions. QB is a problem because if the coach decides to go another direction we don't know how that will impact F1's target share, and if those will be quality targets. That's like having a piano hanging over his fantasy values head. 

In that 1st game, the Redskins ran the ball 33 times to only 25 passes. TMac had 4 catches. Yes, he had 2 TDs, but that's hardly sustainable. The new offense is a massive negative for McLaurin. 

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Just now, ajs723 said:

In that 1st game, the Redskins ran the ball 33 times to only 25 passes. TMac had 4 catches. Yes, he had 2 TDs, but that's hardly sustainable. The new offense is a massive negative for McLaurin. 

 

A run game increases the quality of his targets. 

You can decide to throw his TDs out the window and pretend they're not happening, but he still went 4/100.

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Point is start him this week! Everyone said start him against SF so why wouldn’t you start him against the Vikings. That secondary and defense doesn’t look as tough as before. 

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16 minutes ago, Mr.STD said:

 

A run game increases the quality of his targets. 

You can decide to throw his TDs out the window and pretend they're not happening, but he still went 4/100.

You can choose to believe that a WR can sustain fantasy success on 4 receptions per week. 

I think McLaurin is awesome, and he has WR1 upside in the future. But the situation is horrible right now. 

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27 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

In that 1st game, the Redskins ran the ball 33 times to only 25 passes. TMac had 4 catches. Yes, he had 2 TDs, but that's hardly sustainable. The new offense is a massive negative for McLaurin. 

Cool fascinating stats.. The " new offense' has played one real game vs the dolphins with a positive game script, lets see when they're down 10-15 points Thursday. 

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2 minutes ago, CroNY said:

Cool fascinating stats.. The " new offense' has played one real game vs the dolphins with a positive game script, lets see when they're down 10-15 points Thursday. 

What positive game script? That game was 7-3 in the second half. They are throwing as little as possible. I suppose if they're down 20 points, that should change.

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8 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

What positive game script? That game was 7-3 in the second half. They are throwing as little as possible. I suppose if they're down 20 points, that should change.

Yes winning 7-3 would be considered positive.... Losing 3-7 would be negative.... Not sure what is hard to comprehend here.. I'm sure if they were down even 10-3 he would've received more targets, 7 targets in a game they led the entire time add in the fact he dropped a 25 yard catch as well.

Edited by CroNY

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