UcanTry

Justice Hill 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, CABLE87 said:

Safe drop imo

Quite possibly.  If Hill was going to get any run, today v. Miami in a 59-10 blowout seemed like a pretty good opportunity.

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On 9/4/2019 at 9:25 AM, jmcampbe11 said:

Raven's fan here, I think it's pretty clear that they signed Ingram to be the bell-cow back this season. As much as you want to make Justice Hill a thing, barring an injury I think his touches/usage are going to be too unpredictable this season. Next season will be his time to shine. 

 

Soooo...anyone still want to argue with my take on Hill's role this season? 

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You didn't draft Hill to play in September. You drafted him to make a difference in November.

I remember a lot of dopes dropping N. Chubb early on last year.

Holding.

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I plan to hold him, 14 team 0.5 ppr league. '

The key question is does he have stand alone value + have a clear path for weekly usage in first 4 weeks of the season. If we think he doesn't have value in this timeframe, then he's more of a handcuff, thus more droppable.

Based on this RBBC approach, a run heavy team, and the fact they didn't totally bench him against Miami, he's worth holding in deeper leagues to see what happens in the next 1-2 weeks.

 

For those concerned about the Gus Edwards usage, I did watch the game. Once the game was way out of reach, the vibe of the game almost turned into a preseason game lol. They brought in RG3 to throw, and Gus Edwards spelled Ingram for like 2-3 drives in a row! Hard to see if this really what Harbaugh wants to do against a better team.

 

 

Edited by potatoetree
typo
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A lot of people freaking out about the rookie RBs not blowing up week 1. The fantasy season is a war of attrition. It was going to be almost impossible for Hill blow up week 1 and he probably needs an injury to really be a fantasy asset, but there's some upside. Obviously depends on your league size 

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IF anything, the Gus Bus getting all the garbage time shows you exactly what the pecking order in BAL is...they were not going to jeopardize this kid in meaningless action, his upside is enormous in this scheme and will only get worked in more and more.

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Just now, ST. STEVEN said:

IF anything, the Gus Bus getting all the garbage time shows you exactly what the pecking order in BAL is...they were not going to jeopardize this kid in meaningless action, his upside is enormous in this scheme and will only get worked in more and more.

 

cosign. 

this running game is gonna be unstoppable, and all downhill ... HarBags didn't snag this kid just to wind his fuggin' watch, ya know?

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I really like this kids game but I think I have to drop him here for a lottery pick in Noah Fant who plays tonight. (.5PPR 14 teamer 4 man bench) I still think Hill has flex potential later in the season, but given its Week 1 his drop is doubtful to bring much interest as more intriguing names such as Mclaurin, Ross, and Redskins backs (AP Thompson) still on the wire among others. If Fant is a bust Im likely to pick up Hill again- all three ravens backs got 30% of snaps- it could be a true "hot hand" approach. Who knows though since it was such a blowout. 

At this point, hes a hold in deep leagues but with a 4 man bench Im hopeful he will stay on waivers and I can time the pickup BEFORE his breakout game. 

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11 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Soooo...anyone still want to argue with my take on Hill's role this season? 

 

ha!!!!  This is hilarious on so many levels.  

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This guy is a solid hold. Ingram got the TDs but based on snap percentages, this backfield doesn't belong to anyone in particular right now. 

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People are talking about snap percentages. Does anyone have a breakdown of snap percentage in the first half? Did all of Hill’s snaps come in the second half?

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I wouldn’t drop, hold I think as role should grow.

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20 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

People are talking about snap percentages. Does anyone have a breakdown of snap percentage in the first half? Did all of Hill’s snaps come in the second half?

For the game, it was pretty even...

Edwards 29 (38%)

Ingram 25 (32%)

Hill 23 (30%)

Not sure about per half, but the game script seemed to favor Edwards running out the clock, so I wouldn't put much weight into what you see above.  Need to see a more competitive game to get an idea of how these backs will typically be used.  My guess is Ingram early downs with Hill as COP.

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Nooooooo!!!!! Do not drop Justice Hill. Ingram will get the higher percentage of the carries, but they way John Harbaugh  uses his stable of RB's Hill will still get carries that he can still be productive with each week.

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I’m going to pass on so many promising options that can produce now to keep him. Too much talent to leave on the waivers. With the volume in this backfield, I think it will only take an injury to Ingram OR Edwards for Hill to emerge as a serious fantasy asset

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Just now, FinsUp24 said:

I’m going to pass on so many promising options that can produce now to keep him. Too much talent to leave on the waivers. With the volume in this backfield, I think it will only take an injury to Ingram OR Edwards for Hill to emerge as a serious fantasy asset

 

as someone mentioned upthread, they had Gus in there for mopup duty, didn't wanna tax Hill in that heat with meaningless shots ... that should tell ya who they feel is more valuable to them in the big picture. 

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1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

People are talking about snap percentages. Does anyone have a breakdown of snap percentage in the first half? Did all of Hill’s snaps come in the second half?

 

i don't have the snap counts by quarter but at halftime, the carries were:

 

ingram 9

gus 6

justice 2

 

in the 2nd half, gus took over for ingram and justice's usage ticked up.

 

justice was in down the stretch with gus and getting carries on the final few drives. 

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7 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

as someone mentioned upthread, they had Gus in there for mopup duty, didn't wanna tax Hill in that heat with meaningless shots ... that should tell ya who they feel is more valuable to them in the big picture. 

 

 

this isn't really true. hill was in until the end and even got 3 carries on the final drive. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, astrongcupofjoel said:

 

i don't have the snap counts by quarter but at halftime, the carries were:

 

ingram 9

gus 6

justice 2

 

in the 2nd half, gus took over for ingram and justice's usage ticked up.

 

justice was in down the stretch with gus and getting carries on the final few drives. 

 

ahhh, ok ... so misinformation was disseminated which i regurgitated and you repudiated ...

well done, ty 👍

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13 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Soooo...anyone still want to argue with my take on Hill's role this season? 

Dude obviously Ingram is the bellcow, lol you arent claiming anything revolutionary here. Hill is a talented back that could get more work as season progresses and would obviously be pretty valuable should something happen to Ingram

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so we're using hill as handcuff? or hoping his role's grows like kamara so ravens can sustain two rb's even with gus

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6 hours ago, brosephd said:

so we're using hill as handcuff? or hoping his role's grows like kamara so ravens can sustain two rb's even with gus

 

I guess a bit of both, hes a drop for me in redraft. I'm not going to play the what if game with the 3rd RB on the team. 

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