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Justice Hill 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, nine9s said:

Lendale White - Chris Johnson - Vince Young

=

Mark Ingram - Justice Hill - Lamar Jackson

 

PLEASE don't compare Justice Hill to Chris Johnson...

 

 

 

Justice Hill has POWER to go with his speed!!! :lol:

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4 minutes ago, nine9s said:

Lendale White - Chris Johnson - Vince Young

=

Mark Ingram - Justice Hill - Lamar Jackson

 

i'm no huge believer in Lamar, but, good lawdy lawd, he's already a much better professional tackle foosball QB than that stiff Vince. 

 

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Everyone really is missing the Ravens strategy here, its Ingram and Gus Edwards you want to own. Hill (along with the other speedy rookies) is there to allow the Ravens to run a quick offense if they need to, in 2 min drill or to mount a comeback, and to keep defenses honest here and there. Maybe for the future too. 

The Ravens went 6-2 slowing their offense down to a halt last year. And by the way, Gus Edwards was on pace for a 1500 yard season. The Ravens RBs from Week 10 onwards (when they changed scheme with Jackson) were 3rd best in the league in Successful Play rate at 60%, producing 5.7 yards per play, and the 2nd best first down rate of 31%. The only two teams higher: Rams and Saints. Gus Edwards was 4th in Successful Play rate in the same time frame, at 63%, only behind CJ Anderson, Damien Williams (both of them had smaller sample sizes) & Kamara. In at #6 was Ingram at 61%.

The Ravens offense had the ball over 35 minutes a game when Jackson started, which is insane. Pittsburgh in 2004 went 15-1 in Big Ben's first year, averaged 34 minutes a game, ran the ball 618 times for the season, and supported running back numbers for both Bettis & Duce Staley who each produced over 800 yards. They barely threw the ball that year, just ran it down people's throat, and this is in an era when linebackers were the most important defensive player. Now, linebacker is built more towards blitzing & coverage.

The Ravens are going to deploy Edwards & Ingram to plow and run down clock. Hill will be used when needed, but Jackson is also going to do some running if he has to, and unless the other two are no longer efficient, then Hill is really being significantly overvalued and Edwards is by far the most undervalued running back in fantasy (he's not even being drafted which is ridiculous for a high efficiency RB in a heavy run offense). 

Edited by worldclass
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1 hour ago, worldclass said:

Hill (along with the other speedy rookies) is there to allow the Ravens to run a quick offense if they need to, in 2 min drill or to mount a comeback, and to keep defenses honest here and there. Maybe for the future too. 

 I think you make some solid points in the rest of your post however, that's looking at what they did last year. The picks they invested into Brown, Boykins and Hill seems an awful lot to invest (especially all 3 in same draft) for what would amount to luxury players which is sort of the way I interpret your stance on these guys from the above sentence. I think it might show a signal intent of what they want to remake the offense to be more of for this season (and the future). 

Logically it seems arguably more plausible that while what they did last year worked they felt it wasn't really sustainable and they want to evolve Jackson into more of a passing threat so they invested significant draft capital into these speedy guys in order to help Jackson grow and reach the next stage in an offense that'll definitely keep parts of what worked last year but aim to incorporate a certain more dynamic quick hitting aspect too. The juxtaposition of the two makes both more effective and ultimately the entire offense in theory more effective. To this end I don't see why Edwards would have to play a major role in this as he seems like a more limited version of Ingram. Ingram can still be that interior runner off the read option and Hill would bring a completely different style to the backfield in a change of pace role. Edwards was the incumbent but they felt he clearly wasn't enough so they went and got Ingram and then even after that they felt the need to spend a 4th on Hill after already spending a 1st and 3rd on the offense. Especially given Dixon was a bit of a darling not long ago it seems surprising they'd draft Hill if Edwards and Ingram were going to dominate the backfield touches. Surely Dixon would've been sufficient to play that quick offense RB role especially if it would save a 4th round pick (and potentially cost him his roster spot to draft Hill). 

Edited by Jaw1
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13 hours ago, ss3walkman said:

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones were the original.

 

13 hours ago, scheibler said:

 

cj2k and white, Jacobs and Bradshaw too

 

 

You guys are too young. The original was Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne.  

Thunder and lightning baby! 

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53 minutes ago, poofinger said:

 

 

 

You guys are too young. The original was Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne.  

Thunder and lightning baby! 

 

Ron dayne sucked lol

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1 hour ago, poofinger said:

 

 

 

You guys are too young. The original was Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne.  

Thunder and lightning baby! 

You're way too young … The original was Csonka & Mercury Morris (plus Kiick) unless you want to go to college with Blanchard & Davis when college was bigger than the NFL

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7 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

You're way too young … The original was Csonka & Mercury Morris (plus Kiick) unless you want to go to college with Blanchard & Davis when college was bigger than the NFL

 

 

You’re old

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8 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

You're way too young … The original was Csonka & Mercury Morris (plus Kiick) unless you want to go to college with Blanchard & Davis when college was bigger than the NFL

 

Brah...Red Grange and Rollie Corbett...

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On 8/21/2019 at 6:20 PM, ST. STEVEN said:

I agree that Justice is a bit of a different animal for the checkdowns than Collins or Gus last year (assuming Dixon wasn't in game)...but the checkdown thing with Lamar prob isn't that overblown, if the primary read is not there he does have a real tendency to take his eyes down and look to run.

 

That's kind of funny because in college the one thing I noticed about him is he would keep his eyes downfield while starting to scramble around the pocket...

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I watched Hill in the Philly game.   A few takeaways:

 

Hill is good at pass protection.   Had a key block during a touchdown pass.  Held up well against linebackers.  Never appeared to miss an  assignment.

 

Hill dropped a pass in the endzone that he tried to body catch (granted the pass was low).

 

Hill's YPC was crappy because he had runs near the endzone and to pick up a third down.

 

Hill had a 10-15 yard run called back on a hold (which didn't effect the outcome of the play that I could tell).

 

Hill was wide open on his routes a few times.  Trace McSorley had no intention of checking it down. 

Edited by Iron-cock
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10 hours ago, Jaw1 said:

 I think you make some solid points in the rest of your post however, that's looking at what they did last year. The picks they invested into Brown, Boykins and Hill seems an awful lot to invest (especially all 3 in same draft) for what would amount to luxury players which is sort of the way I interpret your stance on these guys from the above sentence. I think it might show a signal intent of what they want to remake the offense to be more of for this season (and the future). 

Logically it seems arguably more plausible that while what they did last year worked they felt it wasn't really sustainable and they want to evolve Jackson into more of a passing threat so they invested significant draft capital into these speedy guys in order to help Jackson grow and reach the next stage in an offense that'll definitely keep parts of what worked last year but aim to incorporate a certain more dynamic quick hitting aspect too. The juxtaposition of the two makes both more effective and ultimately the entire offense in theory more effective. To this end I don't see why Edwards would have to play a major role in this as he seems like a more limited version of Ingram. Ingram can still be that interior runner off the read option and Hill would bring a completely different style to the backfield in a change of pace role. Edwards was the incumbent but they felt he clearly wasn't enough so they went and got Ingram and then even after that they felt the need to spend a 4th on Hill after already spending a 1st and 3rd on the offense. Especially given Dixon was a bit of a darling not long ago it seems surprising they'd draft Hill if Edwards and Ingram were going to dominate the backfield touches. Surely Dixon would've been sufficient to play that quick offense RB role especially if it would save a 4th round pick (and potentially cost him his roster spot to draft Hill). 

 

Gregg Roman mentioned that they brought in Hill, Brown, Boykins & Ingram to provide more options and more creativity for the Ravens offense. They don't want to be one dimensional, they want to be able to counter any way defenses scheme for them. However, my larger point is that last years Ravens were really good with Edwards doing his thing and he helps to also open up a lot of space for Jackson. I see no reason to think that Edwards role ticks down all that much, he averaged 17 rushes per game when Jackson took over. Keep in mind the Ravens as a team with Jackson under center were rushing 47 times/game. To put in perspective, the Seahawks, who were the 2nd highest in rushing attempts per game had 33.

The Ravens are on a different stratosphere in rush attempts, and it just seems logical that they'd want to minimize Jackson's designed rushing attempts to keep him healthy, this is ultimately why they brought in Ingram, not to supplant Edwards, but to reduce Jackson's carries, which were at 21 per game. That's too high for a QB, they want Jackson's rushing ability to keep defenses guessing. If you look at what Roman did for Kaepernick's offense, in 2014 he was at 6.5 carries per game, or if you want to even see Russell Wilson's best year in rushing attempts he was at 7 carries per game.

I'm just predicting how the Ravens will operate based off of total offensive efficiency, and without a doubt, the most efficient way to maximize Jackson the most efficient offense for the Ravens still is to limit the amount of passes from Jackson. He was one of the least efficient passers in the NFL last year. Of starting QBs, only Rosen, Josh Allen, Eli, Bortles, Alex Smith & Darnold were less efficient. That's with defenses pressing to stop the Ravens run game. 

So if we assume that the Ravens still will opt to be run heavy to maintain an efficient offense, while assuming the Ravens won't want their QB running 21 carries per game, we probably can also assume that the Run:Pass ratio will basically continue to hover about 65% run, 35% pass. Meaning, there probably still will be around 46-47 run plays per game based off of last years numbers with Jackson under center

Given those assumptions then, if Jackson's number of carries decline to be maybe 10 per game, thats still 37 carries left to divide. Ingram & Edwards will probably be at about 15 carries each (with 15 carries, that would still result in a career year in carries for Ingram at 240 if he stays healthy all season). Ingram also will provide better options for pass plays too, as he has solid hands. That would leave about 7 rushes per game for Hill plus maybe 3 catches a game. Maybe he makes the most of those, since he is a dynamic playmaker. But the reality is he isn't going to be getting the ball all that much. 

I love Ingram, and I think he'll have a great year, but he's absolutely going to share the load, it just doesn't make sense for Ingram to really exceed 15 carries per game at 30 years of age. Ravens signed him for 3 years, so there is longer term interest in not wanting to run Ingram completely into the ground this season. Harbaugh still loves Edwards too, given his offseason comments regarding Gus. 

Edited by worldclass
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Quote

I see no reason to think that Edwards role ticks down all that much, he averaged 17 rushes per game when Jackson took over. Keep in mind the Ravens as a team with Jackson under center were rushing 47 times/game. To put in perspective, the Seahawks, who were the 2nd highest in rushing attempts per game had 33.

I can't deny Edwards played very well once Lamar Jackson took over however, bringing in Ingram and spending a 4th rounder on Hill doesn't appear on the surface to be exactly a vote of confidence in him. I also, don't think he's more talented than the 2 backs they brought in and his production was very much a product of the scheme/playcalling and probably in part because teams (like I'm probably guilty of right now) underestimating him and focusing on the more headline catching LJax. Ravens were definitely an extremely run-heavy side last season and I expect them to be among the league leaders in the category again but I don't think QB carries are directly replaceable by RB carries (completely different personnel) and the difference between them and the Seahawks is largely due to LJax averaging like 17 carries per game to Wilson's 4. Even so, Justice Hill's skillset is quite different from Edwards and Ingram so I feel like Edwards will be a more limiting factor on Ingram (and vice-versa) than Hill who brings a different dynamic entirely. 

Quote

Given those assumptions then, if Jackson's number of carries decline to be maybe 10 per game, thats still 37 carries left to divide. Ingram & Edwards will probably be at about 15 carries each (with 15 carries, that would still result in a career year in carries for Ingram at 240 if he stays healthy all season). Ingram also will provide better options for pass plays too, as he has solid hands. That would leave about 7 rushes per game for Hill plus maybe 3 catches a game. Maybe he makes the most of those, since he is a dynamic playmaker. But the reality is he isn't going to be getting the ball all that much. 

 

I agree LJax isn't going to be dropping back and slinging it 40+ times per game or running it like he did last year and Ravens will be among league leaders in rushing but its guess work to try to guess with any meaningful degree of confidence in how the carries will be split up. As you point out there is potentially a lot of work here for multiple RBs to produce value especially given Hill's skill set he doesn't need a lot of touches to put up big numbers so it isn't purely a zero-sum game. Therefore I look at the talent where I think Edwards is the least talented of the bunch and the one with the most limited skill set of the group. That factored with the Ravens feeling the need to commit significant resources to bring in 2 other RBs doesn't seem to indicate that they are confident Edwards is "their guy" or the one to lead the backfield. 

Regardless this is a Justice Hill thread and imo Edwards isn't really a threat to Hill's role as they are both different style players entirely. I think you raise solid points though and Edwards probably should be getting more love than he's generally receiving from the fantasy community since it isn't a stretch to see him retaining a considerable role and continuing what he showed last season. At his price I think he still represents good value but personally given this is almost certainly going to be a RBBC I usually will side with the RBs less reliant on volume due to receiving ability and big play ability which point in Hill's favor. 

Edited by Jaw1
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10 hours ago, poofinger said:

You guys are too young. The original was Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne.  

Thunder and lightning baby! 

Go back even further to 1979. 

 

The great duo of Tony Galbreath and Chuck Muncie for the Saints. 

 

Combined for 1,906 rushing yards, 792 receiving yards, and 21 TDS

 

Hard drugs and booze eventually tore them apart. Muncie could have been an all time great. 

 

Justice Hill is a FA in my 12 team 0.25 ppr league. 

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2 hours ago, Tenner said:

Go back even further to 1979. 

 

The great duo of Tony Galbreath and Chuck Muncie for the Saints. 

 

Combined for 1,906 rushing yards, 792 receiving yards, and 21 TDS

 

Hard drugs and booze eventually tore them apart. Muncie could have been an all time great. 

 

Justice Hill is a FA in my 12 team 0.25 ppr league. 

Dang dude, you are dating yourself. But, yeah... I remember Chuck Muncie. Galbreath not as much. But, yeah...those were the good ole' days as they say. 

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53 minutes ago, carmine said:

This thread is about to pop in the next few weeks

 

Yeah.  The train has gone off the rails. That dude up there with the super analytical post on how Gus Edwards was the guy to own sort of buzzkilled us.  But have no fear.  We will be back!!!!  

 

 

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So for those on the Justice Hill hype train, is the expectation that he will take over the lead role in the backfield by a few weeks into the season?

If so, I’m not necessarily debating that as a possibility (though I am interested in the plausible reasoning given Ingram in the backfield). One reason that I ask this is a lot of analysts are surprised that Ingram’s ADP is so low, and I tend to agree with them. But maybe Ingram’s role is not as secure as they (and I) think?

Or is the hype primarily just that a timeshare role for Hill would be enough to return value in a high volume rushing attack?

 

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39 minutes ago, gufomel said:

So for those on the Justice Hill hype train, is the expectation that he will take over the lead role in the backfield by a few weeks into the season?

If so, I’m not necessarily debating that as a possibility (though I am interested in the plausible reasoning given Ingram in the backfield). One reason that I ask this is a lot of analysts are surprised that Ingram’s ADP is so low, and I tend to agree with them. But maybe Ingram’s role is not as secure as they (and I) think?

Or is the hype primarily just that a timeshare role for Hill would be enough to return value in a high volume rushing attack?

 

 

More that he will take on a role similar to Kamara his rookie season. As shown that year Ingram and Kamara both had a roll. Hopefully similar thing this year.

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48 minutes ago, gufomel said:

So for those on the Justice Hill hype train, is the expectation that he will take over the lead role in the backfield by a few weeks into the season?

If so, I’m not necessarily debating that as a possibility (though I am interested in the plausible reasoning given Ingram in the backfield). One reason that I ask this is a lot of analysts are surprised that Ingram’s ADP is so low, and I tend to agree with them. But maybe Ingram’s role is not as secure as they (and I) think?

Or is the hype primarily just that a timeshare role for Hill would be enough to return value in a high volume rushing attack?

 

Hill was the fastest back at the combine and has a lot of traits Ingram lacks. Baltimore is going to ground and pound, so the assumption is that both backs will be fantasy relevant. Hill is obviously the future, so it's safe to assume Baltimore will increase his involvement over the course of the season. 

 

The biggest knock on Hill is his size. He isn't built to be an every down back at this point, but neither is Ingram. 

 

I'll say this, as an Oklahoma State fan who has seen a lot of Hill, he's incredibly gifted and it's no surprise that he's made waves this preseason. I think he'll be good for 800 total yards and 5 TD's, possibly more if Ingram misses any time.

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1 hour ago, gufomel said:

So for those on the Justice Hill hype train, is the expectation that he will take over the lead role in the backfield by a few weeks into the season?

Or is the hype primarily just that a timeshare role for Hill would be enough to return value in a high volume rushing attack?

 


High rush volume and Harbaugh has expressed a desire for having options beyond 'just running the ball' and wanting to have speed for their offense. This leads me to think Hill will be used on 3rd downs to start and anytime they are behind and passing more, and possibly grab some series here and there when they are in the red-zone and looking to disguise their play calls since Hill is a capable between the tackle runner that offers a fast scat-back option as well.  Add to that the ever present chance of an injury to Ingram (not a guy with an injury risk history - but injuries do happen and if one were to happen - Hill's carries would skyrocket.  Plus, he's been electric in pre-season and even if he just splits the backfield with Ingram (60/40 Ingram/Hill) that 40% could mean 10-12 touches a game, which would put him at RB2 or Flex level play already, and again, if he takes over more of the backfield due to skill or injury he'll be an easy RB1 getting 20-25 touches a game

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2 hours ago, gufomel said:

So for those on the Justice Hill hype train, is the expectation that he will take over the lead role in the backfield by a few weeks into the season?

If so, I’m not necessarily debating that as a possibility (though I am interested in the plausible reasoning given Ingram in the backfield). One reason that I ask this is a lot of analysts are surprised that Ingram’s ADP is so low, and I tend to agree with them. But maybe Ingram’s role is not as secure as they (and I) think?

Or is the hype primarily just that a timeshare role for Hill would be enough to return value in a high volume rushing attack?

 

 

I don't think Justice Hill is real lead back material especially in today's NFL where even guys who probably have the ability to play all 3 downs no longer are to keep them fresh, healthy, and to get a specialist in for them in certain situations. Reggie Bush has been the popular comparison but I think its quite generous as Reggie Bush was a generational talent and while Hill's a similar tiered athlete with that track speed I don't think he is nearly the same caliber football player Reggie Bush was coming out of college and looking at the tape he doesn't use that athleticism as effectively as Bush did (due to not being as good of a football player). The biggest difference between the two is their receiving ability which is night and day imo. This is not to say I think Hill is a scrub but the Reggie Bush comparison is a bit optimistic and a bit of an ideal of the type of player Hill could develop into as he excels at similar things (with the caveat of receiving ability where I think Bush was elite and while Hill shows potential in this area and is probably better than his college stats indicate I don't see him ever being Bush level). 

The hype with Hill is geared around his athleticism and big play potential amplified by his landing spot in a run heavy team like the Ravens where its easy to see him carving out a consistent role given the different skill set he brings to that backfield and given his big play potential he doesn't need that many touches before he starts being very intriguing. Given he is sharing the backfield with Ingram there is a natural tendency to see what happened recently with Ingram and Kamara in New Orleans and say Justice Hill could be the Kamara and that's where I think the hype starts to get a bit out of control. Sure this is technically a possibility but its ignoring the polar opposites that are a Drew Brees lead New Orleans offense and Lamar Jackson lead Ravens offense and while few predicted it just how good Kamara is so it strikes me as a fairly irrational connection to make but that irrationality is what drives hype trains and like always there is always a little bit of truth buried in that hype. 

Edited by Jaw1
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