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Kristaps Porzingis 2019-2020 Outlook

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People get a little too excited about players who put on muscle during the offseason. Is having more muscle definition really going to help KP that much? Seriously. Having more muscle doesn't make his 3PT shots go in more, doesn't make him a better rebounder, doesn't make him a better defender. The only time it really makes sense to get excited over an NBA player adding muscle in their arms and chest is if they bang down low or drive to the rim a lot, neither of which Kristaps does. My point is, I don't think adding muscle really does anything for him IRL or fantasy, and I think people get way to excited over NBA players adding muscle. Usually doesn't do anything for them unless it's your core muscles which no one sees usually.

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I can tell you from my own weight training experience that bigger muscles may not mean physically stronger but bigger muscles may mean physically stronger. I can also tell you that bigger muscles may mean heavier but bigger muscles may not mean heavier. One cannot determine these things from a picture. 

What we know is he worked on his conditioning for recovery, for preventative purposes and for performance. All three of those goals are geared towards him being overall better. Whether or not it pays off in the boxscore, I don't know. Anyone brushing of bro's gains as nothing has already made up their mind and so I don't know what they're gaining here.

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1 hour ago, Spyplane said:

I can tell you from my own weight training experience that bigger muscles may not mean physically stronger but bigger muscles may mean physically stronger. I can also tell you that bigger muscles may mean heavier but bigger muscles may not mean heavier. One cannot determine these things from a picture. 

What we know is he worked on his conditioning for recovery, for preventative purposes and for performance. All three of those goals are geared towards him being overall better. Whether or not it pays off in the boxscore, I don't know. Anyone brushing of bro's gains as nothing has already made up their mind and so I don't know what they're gaining here.

I didn't say it was nothing. It's great he's working on himself and adding muscle. That's great for everyday life. But for playing basketball the way he does, it just usually doesn't make a difference. Every year we see this from different players and everyone gets excited, then nothing really changes from that player. Having big arms doesn't mean anything in the NBA.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, RedRaider27 said:

I didn't say it was nothing. It's great he's working on himself and adding muscle. That's great for everyday life. But for playing basketball the way he does, it just usually doesn't make a difference. Every year we see this from different players and everyone gets excited, then nothing really changes from that player. Having big arms doesn't mean anything in the NBA.

It does make a difference. It helps keep him on the floor (his only knock) and how do you know how he's going to play in Dallas?

Edited by Spyplane

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4 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

It does make a difference. It helps keep him on the floor (his only knock) and how do you know how he's going to play in Dallas?

I mean he didn't bang in the post or drive to the rim in New York, and for a 7 footer coming off ACL surgery, I don't think he'll be doing that in Dallas either. I don't know how he'll play in Dallas, I can't see the future. No need to get so defensive, all I did was give my opinion. I know you love your Euros though.

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I'm not being defensive. I commented on what you said and asked a question. Pretty standard stuff.

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3 hours ago, Spyplane said:

Why wouldn't he be able to jump? His workout plan was recovery and to be stronger than before. Mission accomplished.

Putting on upper body strength is not nearly the same as leg/core strength/acceleration. Players who have torn their ACL in the past have said they never regained their athleticism quite like it was before. Jumping ability is one of the hardest attributes to regain and Porzingis blocks are very dependent on if he can jump which would crush his fantasy value if he only got like 1 block a game. He also heavier which means his jump should decline either way, injured or not. 

Look at Gordon Hayward. He played for an entire year and still sucks. Why? He can't jump yet,  he said that himself. Zingis will be out for longer than Gordon and has a knee injury as a big man... that's not ideal. There is so much pressure on the knees being his size and weight and theres no way he can jump like before. Even increasing your squat max etc wont necessarily lead to a higher vert. How many players have you heard of having a bad injury then coming back stronger than before? It's like zero, especially at C. Zingis was also injury prone in the past so now that he is "pre weakened" from this injury, even getting stronger in the weight room wont offset the injury effects. He might get lucky and have his vert not effected I don't know. 

Cousins just tore his ACL today, no surprise there because his legs are permanently weakened. You saw how terrible his vertical was last year in GS? It was abysmal. Big men and leg injuries, especially knee injuries are terrible and end up leaving players more easily injured for the future. 

Zingis is a 4th or 5th round pick and is a gamble no matter where you take him unless you get to see with your own eyes how he looks on the court. The whole consensus of "complete recovery" does not really exist when you're talking best athletes in the world needing to be near perfect. Let cousins be your warning... don't draft big men with injury history. Gobert is an exception as I think hes actually very durable but got unlucky and was given a false rep based on that although that's just a guess. 

When a player cant jump as high their blocks diminish. Look at DeAndre Jordan he didn't get injured but he got old and can't jump as high now he can barely even make it to 1 block a game. 

Even 5" less vert could crush Porzingis value. Maybe you're right, maybe he comes back stronger than ever and rocks the nba... theres really know way to know until we see him step on the court or get more detailed information. 

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His recovery conditioning was focused on his lower body but no one trains in the gym on just one half of the body, that would be silly. You can't see his legs in the picture, not that it matter because pictures don't mean s---. 

 

Leagues are won and lost on risks. Do what's right for you.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

His recovery conditioning was focused on his lower body but no one trains in the gym on just one half of the body, that would be silly. You can't see his legs in the picture, not that it matter because pictures don't mean s---. 

 

Leagues are won and lost on risks. Do what's right for you.

 

 

I disagree. Leagues are won with safe bargain picks, structured properly, not by taking risks. At least that's what's worked for me as I've more than doubled up every single year I've ever played. 

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9 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

I disagree. Leagues are won with safe bargain picks, structured properly, not by taking risks. At least that's what's worked for me as I've more than doubled up every single year I've ever played. 

Safety is an illusion. I play to win and risks are part of my game. I never said I was drafting him by the way, I don't know what I will do yet. If you want to play it safe always then have at it, I'm happy for your past successes. Good luck. 

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On 8/15/2019 at 8:32 PM, johnval1362 said:

I disagree. Leagues are won with safe bargain picks, structured properly, not by taking risks. At least that's what's worked for me as I've more than doubled up every single year I've ever played. 

It is another topic but I have also played safe (though it is not entirely possible) and almost every time I make play-offs by this strategy, but I don't win the league. I have been many times second and third, but not first...

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On 8/15/2019 at 11:21 AM, johnval1362 said:

Putting on upper body strength is not nearly the same as leg/core strength/acceleration. Players who have torn their ACL in the past have said they never regained their athleticism quite like it was before. Jumping ability is one of the hardest attributes to regain and Porzingis blocks are very dependent on if he can jump which would crush his fantasy value if he only got like 1 block a game. He also heavier which means his jump should decline either way, injured or not. 

Look at Gordon Hayward. He played for an entire year and still sucks. Why? He can't jump yet,  he said that himself. Zingis will be out for longer than Gordon and has a knee injury as a big man... that's not ideal. There is so much pressure on the knees being his size and weight and theres no way he can jump like before. Even increasing your squat max etc wont necessarily lead to a higher vert. How many players have you heard of having a bad injury then coming back stronger than before? It's like zero, especially at C. Zingis was also injury prone in the past so now that he is "pre weakened" from this injury, even getting stronger in the weight room wont offset the injury effects. He might get lucky and have his vert not effected I don't know. 

Cousins just tore his ACL today, no surprise there because his legs are permanently weakened. You saw how terrible his vertical was last year in GS? It was abysmal. Big men and leg injuries, especially knee injuries are terrible and end up leaving players more easily injured for the future. 

Zingis is a 4th or 5th round pick and is a gamble no matter where you take him unless you get to see with your own eyes how he looks on the court. The whole consensus of "complete recovery" does not really exist when you're talking best athletes in the world needing to be near perfect. Let cousins be your warning... don't draft big men with injury history. Gobert is an exception as I think hes actually very durable but got unlucky and was given a false rep based on that although that's just a guess. 

When a player cant jump as high their blocks diminish. Look at DeAndre Jordan he didn't get injured but he got old and can't jump as high now he can barely even make it to 1 block a game. 

Even 5" less vert could crush Porzingis value. Maybe you're right, maybe he comes back stronger than ever and rocks the nba... theres really know way to know until we see him step on the court or get more detailed information. 

Porzingis has never struck me as a big that depends on athleticism. His blocks come from having go-go gadget arms. I get it that you need to jump and blah blah blah. I just don't think KP is going to go from elite in blocks to a marginal contributor. 

I get the comps you are drawing from, but DJ got old and dumpy and the game has changed to drawing bigs out by spacing the floor. Bigs aren't launching contested 3's and getting those shots blocked regularly. Hayward comp is just cherry picked. Boogie is the chain reaction that everyone dreads, especially in dynasty. KP may or may not go down that road. 

KP isn't for everyone and their builds. Whether you like his stat line or not you can not really debate that he is a dynamic source of blocks. You need to cater to his weaknesses, but his strengths are interesting and you can build around them. It is just a matter of what adventure you would like to take on draft day. I would guess KP will go at a discounted price, but not as much as some hope because blocks are scarce. He is going to fall on a lot of DND lists and that is fine. Plenty of ways to play the game. 

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2 hours ago, thezing1 said:

. Whether you like his stat line or not you can not really debate that he is a dynamic source of blocks. You need to cater to his weaknesses, but his strengths are interesting and you can build around them

I agree with most of what you're saying, but saying he IS a dynamic source of blocks vs saying he WAS is what I'm not sold on just yet. Not enough to take him before the 5th unless all the blockers dry up quickly. Cousins couldn't jump when he came back and couldn't block shots, DJ used to be able to jump through the roof, he can't now. If vertical ability wasn't a huge factor in shot blocking then you wouldn't see significant dips in block rate correlates with age becsuse it's not like players get shorter. Age vs injury can be very similar. We will see though! Really just want to see him even take one layup, sometimes that's all you need. You could tell cousins didn't look right last year, theres no way to tell Porzingis is going to "not look right" this year either. 

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1 hour ago, johnval1362 said:

I agree with most of what you're saying, but saying he IS a dynamic source of blocks vs saying he WAS is what I'm not sold on just yet. Not enough to take him before the 5th unless all the blockers dry up quickly. Cousins couldn't jump when he came back and couldn't block shots, DJ used to be able to jump through the roof, he can't now. If vertical ability wasn't a huge factor in shot blocking then you wouldn't see significant dips in block rate correlates with age becsuse it's not like players get shorter. Age vs injury can be very similar. We will see though! Really just want to see him even take one layup, sometimes that's all you need. You could tell cousins didn't look right last year, theres no way to tell Porzingis is going to "not look right" this year either. 

It is my opinion that you are being too harsh and are using cherry picked examples to justify your thought/projection/whatever you are doing with KP not being able to or falling off a cliff with his blocked shots this year. 

Boogie was never an athletic freak in terms of vertical. He was a freak having the skill he had and being so strong and mobile while being an enormous human being. And the funny thing on Boogie is that he was better at blocking shots last year than at any other point in his career. If he got 30+ mpg he would have easily set a career mark in bpg. So many things come into play on blocks. Can you cover ground to recover and challenge shots. Blah Blah Blah.  DJ was 29 when his real decline from elite happened in blocks. KP just turned 24. That difference in age is incredibly large. I can't get into a back and forth on whatever this topic is.

I don't even think I know what you are arguing or what your stance is on KP. Would you mind stating that. As for whatever this back and forth is you can have last word if you want it, but I am going to bow out because I feel this is close to apples v. oranges. 

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51 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

It is my opinion that you are being too harsh and are using cherry picked examples to justify your thought/projection/whatever you are doing with KP not being able to or falling off a cliff with his blocked shots this year. 

Boogie was never an athletic freak in terms of vertical. He was a freak having the skill he had and being so strong and mobile while being an enormous human being. And the funny thing on Boogie is that he was better at blocking shots last year than at any other point in his career. If he got 30+ mpg he would have easily set a career mark in bpg. So many things come into play on blocks. Can you cover ground to recover and challenge shots. Blah Blah Blah.  DJ was 29 when his real decline from elite happened in blocks. KP just turned 24. That difference in age is incredibly large. I can't get into a back and forth on whatever this topic is.

I don't even think I know what you are arguing or what your stance is on KP. Would you mind stating that. As for whatever this back and forth is you can have last word if you want it, but I am going to bow out because I feel this is close to apples v. oranges. 

Cousins blocks last year is way higher than I thought, to be fair. More than his career avg so I may be wrong. Thats very strange. I honestly have no clue how he managed that other than luck or being in a system that promotes them somehow. Maybe it's more mental than I'm giving credit for. I am not trying to argue or get the last word, I just enjoy going a little more in depth at times. This is a forum we bounce thoughts off each other, with detail, but anyway, my point was entirely based on big men never coming back the same. That makes KPs floor extremely low in relation to his career stats. I guess we agree to disagree about KPs block rate potentially disappearing based off how he looks on the court vs blind belief of complete recovery. I sort of repeated myself somewhat in both posts in a way, my apologies. 

KP is 5th round as of now to me because of my predicted loss in blocks. He can jump to 3rd if he looks like didn't lose much athleticism from the injury. Main point being sometimes you need to watch a player actually play and that's the only way to accurately predict something. 

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Speaking purely about player profiles - I'd rather wait and get Lopez cheaper if I need such categories. And I'm not really sure Lopez will end up being the worse player next season.

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Before injury Porzingis was quite sure 2nd round pick. How much it is changed? Of course, team is changed but level? Risky pick in 3rd, but could be valuable starting from 4th round.

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1 hour ago, apatas said:

Before injury Porzingis was quite sure 2nd round pick. How much it is changed? Of course, team is changed but level? Risky pick in 3rd, but could be valuable starting from 4th round.

He never returned second round value though.  He was only picked there out of hype.  That’s like saying, “he was hyped before, why not now?”  Not to mention we have new evidence of severe injury history.  People should update their values based on new evidence.  Eg I wouldn’t draft George in the top 20 now.  He’s missing 20ish games, plus likely back to backs, meaning he might play 50 games.  Not to mention his per game value might decline after injury.  Back to Kristaps....he might only play 60 games.  Dallas is unlikely to be fighting during the fantasy playoffs.  Are you going to risk even a third round pick on such a risky player who has never proven to be top 25 anyway?

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Blocks is not only about jumping high. Is Turner the most athletic guy? Why does he block double the shots that other more athletic guys do? You need to have a feeling for it and KP has it. 

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

He never returned second round value though.  He was only picked there out of hype.  That’s like saying, “he was hyped before, why not now?”  Not to mention we have new evidence of severe injury history.  People should update their values based on new evidence.  Eg I wouldn’t draft George in the top 20 now.  He’s missing 20ish games, plus likely back to backs, meaning he might play 50 games.  Not to mention his per game value might decline after injury.  Back to Kristaps....he might only play 60 games.  Dallas is unlikely to be fighting during the fantasy playoffs.  Are you going to risk even a third round pick on such a risky player who has never proven to be top 25 anyway?

he is second round per game value in 17-18 season,but he never return top 30 in total game value

image.jpg

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55 minutes ago, kane said:

he is second round per game value in 17-18 season,but he never return top 30 in total game value

image.jpg

Forgot how much of his value came from blocks and secondarily points...

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3 hours ago, kane said:

he is second round per game value in 17-18 season,but he never return top 30 in total game value

image.jpg

My bad. Actually I think I might take Kristaps as early as the third if I started with two punt FG guards.  Eg if I drafted Harden around 3rd, and Kemba or someone similar fell to 22, then I might go Kristaps as early as 27 depending on who else is available.  1) I need a big: 2) blocks are scarce; 3) he fits my team.  Kristaps, Turner, and Brolo are all of the same ilk:  bigs who get blocks but not many rebounds.  I think kristaps has the most upside of the three and if I was punting FG then I’d rather his production than Turner’s.

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7 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

My bad. Actually I think I might take Kristaps as early as the third if I started with two punt FG guards.  Eg if I drafted Harden around 3rd, and Kemba or someone similar fell to 22, then I might go Kristaps as early as 27 depending on who else is available.  1) I need a big: 2) blocks are scarce; 3) he fits my team.  Kristaps, Turner, and Brolo are all of the same ilk:  bigs who get blocks but not many rebounds.  I think kristaps has the most upside of the three and if I was punting FG then I’d rather his production than Turner’s.

In earlier post you said third round is not probable as I understood? I put here this question because I already know I have picks 34 and 39 in standard league. The most important is for me: is he still available at pick 39?

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5 minutes ago, apatas said:

In earlier post you said third round is not probable as I understood? I put here this question because I already know I have picks 34 and 39 in standard league. The most important is for me: is he still available at pick 39?

He went 36th and 42nd in the two early drafts I did.  I was saying that if the situation was just right I might go earlier than that.  

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37 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

My bad. Actually I think I might take Kristaps as early as the third if I started with two punt FG guards.  Eg if I drafted Harden around 3rd, and Kemba or someone similar fell to 22, then I might go Kristaps as early as 27 depending on who else is available.  1) I need a big: 2) blocks are scarce; 3) he fits my team.  Kristaps, Turner, and Brolo are all of the same ilk:  bigs who get blocks but not many rebounds.  I think kristaps has the most upside of the three and if I was punting FG then I’d rather his production than Turner’s.

 

Well put. He went from more or less DND for me to now DND*. * if punting FG, starting either Harden and guard or Lillard and guard likely.

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