ludawg23

Late 1st round pick strategy

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6 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

Taking kelce is essentially taking a wr in my eyes. He would've finished as WR6 last year in ppr

That's not how it really works though. You only need 1 TE. 

Let's say you go Adams'Kelce for instance. You're now picking in the mid 30s and really need RBs. However, most of the crop is gone so you take Carson and Michel. Your next pick is late 50s or early 60s and you need another WR and a flex. So you take Moore and Drake. That gives you:

RB1: Carson

RB2: Michel

WR1: Adams

WR2: Moore

TE: Kelce

FLEX: Drake

That's an ugly lineup in my opinion. 

Edited by Gohawks

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1 hour ago, jumper said:

The other alternative is to go Kelce and RB or elite WR in the 1/2, then in the 3/4 turn grab the highest ranked RB or WR guy in the position you didn't take in the 1/2 turn.  You can wind up with a team like this (just mock drafted this via the FantasyPros mock draft simulator, chose 10th in a 12-team 0.5PPR mock league): 

QB:   Brees or Goff
RB1:  Conner
RB2:  Carson
WR1: Diggs
WR2: Woods
Flex1:  Ingram
Flex2:  White
TE:       Kelce

 

How on gods earth to you even get this lineup?

You obviously take Conner and Kelce but after that you lose me. Carson, Diggs, Woods, and Ingram are all projected to go in the 3rd and 4th round range. Even using fantasy pros own ADP Woods has an ADP of 40, Carson 41, Ingram 47, and Diggs 37. So you're hoping a guy drops 20 picks and Ingram drops like 15. By the way, Ingram isn't going 47 often nowadays either. You're also getting white damn near 20 picks after his ADP. 

So no you can't really get a lineup like this.

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15 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Always go RB/WR

 

If your league is competitive the RB’s will be slim coming back in the 3rd.

 

Agree, especially in standard. 

I think you absolutely have to take a high floor RB with one of your top 2.  Ceiling is less important than floor.  At the 3/4 turn, the RBs all have potential to be big, but they could also be terrible (stuck in timeshare, high injury risk, etc.).  You need at least 1 RB that you can rely on.

Whenever I take Kelce early, I hate my team because the WRs are really shaky, but that might just be my perception.  The advantage at TE could offset your weakness at WR, and there are more WR sleepers than a TE sleepers.

 

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

How on gods earth to you even get this lineup?

You obviously take Conner and Kelce but after that you lose me. Carson, Diggs, Woods, and Ingram are all projected to go in the 3rd and 4th round range. Even using fantasy pros own ADP Woods has an ADP of 40, Carson 41, Ingram 47, and Diggs 37. So you're hoping a guy drops 20 picks and Ingram drops like 15. By the way, Ingram isn't going 47 often nowadays either. You're also getting white damn near 20 picks after his ADP. 

So no you can't really get a lineup like this.

 

Maybe there was an early run on kickers and defenses?

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7 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

How on gods earth to you even get this lineup?

You obviously take Conner and Kelce but after that you lose me. Carson, Diggs, Woods, and Ingram are all projected to go in the 3rd and 4th round range. Even using fantasy pros own ADP Woods has an ADP of 40, Carson 41, Ingram 47, and Diggs 37. So you're hoping a guy drops 20 picks and Ingram drops like 15. By the way, Ingram isn't going 47 often nowadays either. You're also getting white damn near 20 picks after his ADP. 

So no you can't really get a lineup like this.

 

Yeah. Choose 2 of Ingram woods Carson or diggs. That’s about the best you can hope for in a round 3-4 12 team 

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2 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Yeah. Choose 2 of Ingram woods Carson or diggs. That’s about the best you can hope for in a round 3-4 12 team 

 

I'm thinking the FantasyPros mock simulator has bugs.

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5 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Yeah. Choose 2 of Ingram woods Carson or diggs. That’s about the best you can hope for in a round 3-4 12 team 

Right and then you're looking at guys like Williams, Drake, Moore, Guice, and Jeffery with your flex possibly being Damn Jordan Howard or Christian Kirk. Not exactly a great outcome if you take Kelce on the turn. 

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20 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

At 11 I'm I keep seeing the opposite. RBs are gone besides Mixon, gurley, and cook which are all a gamble. I'm usually left looking at Hill, OBJ, Juju. Personally I like Hill and Juju over MT, Julio, and OBJ so may just grab them both or one plus Kelce

 

Are you doing PPR? 

JuJu is at the end for me.  But I'd probably take any two of those WR you listed instead of any of the RB.   I'm having trouble with Kelce.  I just don't like my teams as much when I go that route. 

I was initially fine with getting the 12 pick but Zeke and Gordon could really screw up my plans.

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

That's not how it really works though. You only need 1 TE. 

Let's say you go Adams'Kelce for instance. You're now picking in the mid 30s and really need RBs. However, most of the crop is gone so you take Carson and Michel. Your next pick is late 50s or early 60s and you need another WR and a flex. So you take Moore and Drake. That gives you:

RB1: Carson

RB2: Michel

WR1: Adams

WR2: Moore

TE: Kelce

FLEX: Drake

That's an ugly lineup in my opinion. 

 

I like this team and picked guys easily attainable

QB- Winston/Cam

RB- Ingram

RB- Carson

WR- Juju

WR- Mike Williams

Flex- Ekeler

TE- Kelce

Best bench wrs: Corey Davis, MVS, Samuel, etc

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Right and then you're looking at guys like Williams, Drake, Moore, Guice, and Jeffery with your flex possibly being Damn Jordan Howard or Christian Kirk. Not exactly a great outcome if you take Kelce on the turn. 

 

In that spot the only guys I like are Williams and ekeler. I may punt and take Rodgers or Watson there

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11 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

How on gods earth to you even get this lineup?

You obviously take Conner and Kelce but after that you lose me. Carson, Diggs, Woods, and Ingram are all projected to go in the 3rd and 4th round range. Even using fantasy pros own ADP Woods has an ADP of 40, Carson 41, Ingram 47, and Diggs 37. So you're hoping a guy drops 20 picks and Ingram drops like 15. By the way, Ingram isn't going 47 often nowadays either. You're also getting white damn near 20 picks after his ADP. 

So no you can't really get a lineup like this.

I just ran the FantasyPros mock draft tool and those were the results with .5PPR setting enabled picking 10/12.  As of this moment here are these player rankings on FantasyPro at varied settings: 

Player | Standard | .5PPR | PPR

Diggs     34 | 30 | 29

Woods   38 | 39 | 35

Carson   40 | 46 | 55

Ingram   45 | 50 | 57

The point isn't to argue whether you or others think the FP results or rankings are right or wrong, or whether their mock draft tool presents "correct" results or not.   The point is to show what happens if you pick Kelce in the 1/2 round and give up the opportunity to draft a RB in the Conner/Bell/Mixon/Chubb/Cook class. 

Let's gameplay this out assuming these were your picks (all at or below their current ADP on FantasyPros) with each pick given pick 10 in a 12 team .5PPR draft.  Your first 6 picks roster would look like these, and the ESPN projected scoring for each player would tally like this (relative order of performance): 

1. RB + Kelce Pick in the 1/2

Conner (RB1) 268.4
Kelce  (TE) 283.6
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Mike Williams (WR2) 209.6
White  (Flex) 222.4

Total:  1450.7 fantasy points (projected)

2.  Double WR picks in the 1/2

OBJ (WR1)  281.5
JuJu (WR1)  281.8
Freeman (RB1) 245
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1439.3 fantasy points (projected)

3. Top RB + WR picks in the 1/2

Conner (RB1) 268.4
JuJu (WR1)  281.8
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1417.1 fantasy points (projected)

4. Top WR + RB picks in the 1/2

OBJ (WR1)  281.5
Chubb (RB1)  248.7
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1397.1 fantasy points (projected)

5. Double RB picks in the 1/2

Conner (RB1) 268.4
Chubb (RB1)  248.7
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Woods (WR2) 217.7
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1370.9 fantasy points (projected)

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Fabrini said:

I've been playing money league FF for over 20 years and NEVER have had a set strategy on positions.In '99 I had the 12th pick and went WR/WR, took Randy Moss and Torry Holt...yeah I really hated that team.

Why are we talking about 1999?  You realize every year is different, right?

 

If you want your RB’s to be Henry and Ingram then go WR/WR.

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26 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

2.  Double WR picks in the 1/2

OBJ (WR1)  281.5
JuJu (WR1)  281.8
Freeman (RB1) 245
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1439.3 fantasy points (projected)

 

 

 

 

 

This one would be my preference.  I might take different RBs but I like this team a lot.

Edited by K197040

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2 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

This one would be my preference.  I might take different RBs but I like this team a lot.

I want Odell and Juju but I feel like in real drafts the RB’s go earlyyyyyy. Im scared all the backs will be gone and I’ll be looking at scrubs.  

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3 hours ago, jumper said:

FantasyPros mock draft simulator

 

 

game changer.  love it so much quicker than the stupid ESPN mock draft simulator which ends up autodrafting for everyone anyways.

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5 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I want Odell and Juju but I feel like in real drafts the RB’s go earlyyyyyy. Im scared all the backs will be gone and I’ll be looking at scrubs.  

It's definitely possible.  But I'm willing to pass on RB if there isn't anything I like at the 3/4 turn.   If everyone has gone RB heavy, then you should be able to get someone like Woods/Cooks for your 3rd WR.   Or both.   Or grab a TE.   As long as you load up on RBs later, I think you can have a pretty nice team.  

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I would love to start my 12 man ppr team with Julio and juju/odell in theory. Only problem is with the Melvin and zeke news a lot of drafts are reaching for running backs and they tend to go on a run all the way through the 3rd round. If Mack kerryon Freeman fournette Aaron Jones and Jacob's all get taken before my 3rd pick I'm pretty much forced to go zero rb and have guys like coleman and latavius as my starters. I'd have an amazing WR Corp to off set it but Im leaning towards going WR/RB so that if the league goes on a run at one position I'm not completely screwed. It's nice having an anchor at both positions and just letting the draft come.to you. If julio isn't there I'm grabbing chubb/conner round 1 and then best WR available which is picking from odell, juju, tyreek and sometimes Michael Thomas. If I get Julio I'm grabbing chubb or cook 

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19 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

This one would be my preference.  I might take different RBs but I like this team a lot.

The "problem" with picking from the tail end of a 12-team league snake draft is that you essentially have no chance at getting Kittle and are very unikely to get Ertz. Thus if you want an "elite" TE it's Kelce at the 1/2 turn or bust (meaning a TE in the Engram/Hunter Henry tier).  That consideration heavily impacts strategy options for a late 1st round pick.  If you were planning to wait on TE anyway you might not care. 

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12th, Full prr, main league, I like wr/wr best, I get two of Beckham,JuJu & Hill. At the 3/4 I am going some combo of Mack, Henry, Diggs, Cooper and sometimes sprinkle in some Kittle. I have no problems with how my teams have been turning out.

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26 minutes ago, Dalton Gang said:

drafting 9th out of 12. 

Hoping for 

1.Adams

2. Hill

3. Aaron Jones

4. Mack

5. Carson

Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack’s adp’s are both before 3.09.  Carson is going at 4.04 so this is very unrealistic.

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4 minutes ago, Mr.Joshua said:

12th, Full prr, main league, I like wr/wr best, I get two of Beckham,JuJu & Hill. At the 3/4 I am going some combo of Mack, Henry, Diggs, Cooper and sometimes sprinkle in some Kittle. I have no problems with how my teams have been turning out.

And your RB2 is... Lamar Miller?

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10 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

And your RB2 is... Lamar Miller?

Yes, if you take Kittle then its Miller, T.Coleman or Penny. You then work the ww, they are always rb's that can get you 10+ points during the season which isn't bad when it's your flex.

Edited by Mr.Joshua
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I just mocked Hill, Juju, Mack, D.Henry, D.J.Moore, Penny, Jared Cook,Darrell Henderson, Cam......I like it

-12 spot, full ppr

Edited by Mr.Joshua

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