ludawg23

Late 1st round pick strategy

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I think line-up settings plays a big role along with scoring.

If you're in a full PPR with 3 WRs and a Flex...Hoarding top WRs is a good strategy but you will need to load up on sleepers and pass-catching RBs.

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I always want an RB in the first two rounds, but just drafted 9th in a 12 team non-ppr and went WR/WR because of how the draft fell.  And I ended up liking the team pretty well.  RBs were flying off the board and by the time I picked first, Barkley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara, DJ, Conner and Leveon were all gone.  So I went WR planing to take an RB in round 2.  Then before my second pick, Chubb, Cook, D Will, Mixon and Gurley all went.  At that point, I'm not reaching for a RB even though I agree I typically want one in the first two rounds.  The important thing here though is since RBs went so early, everyone stopped taking them later in the draft.  I ended up with A Jones, Carson, L Miller, Ekeler, and Ballage with stud WRs and I like it well enough.  I should be able to cobble together a backfield out of those 5 and look to be opportunistic when RBs inevitably start getting hurt and hope that my WRs win me games early on.  So at the backend, I think going zero RB is a great strategy this year.  I apologize for the cool story, but thought it might help illustrate how waiting on RB when everyone is reaching for them at the top of the draft can still pay off.

Edited by ThunderDan
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Alright so I did some math based on last year's positional ppg avg in ppr for a 2wr, 2rb, flex league. No matter which way you draft, if your guys live up to their ADP then you come out under 3pts a week difference no matter which direction you take....assuming you don't hit a HR at RB or WR and end up with a top 3 guy

Here's how I broke it down:

PPG by Rd:

Running backs-

1- 17

2- 16

3/4- 13

5+ PPR guys- 11

WR-

1-20

2- 20

3/4- 16

5/6- 13

7+- 11

TE-

1/2- 18

4/5- 12

Streamers- 10

TE/WR/RB/RB/WR/WR= 90

TE/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR = 89

WR/WR/RB/RB/TE/WR = 91

RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/WR = 88

Unless you hit a miracle and your RB churns out 20ppg finishing top 4 then it doesn't seem smart to go RB late in the 1st. 

 

 

Edited by scheibler
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8 minutes ago, scheibler said:

Alright so I did some math based on last year's positional ppg avg in ppr for a 2wr, 2rb, flex league. No matter which way you draft, if your guys live up to their ADP then you come out under 2pts a week difference no matter which direction you take....assuming you don't hit a HR at RB or WR and end up with a top 3 guy

 

 

Nice way of breaking it down, it's all a personal choice, wr/wr just works for me.

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Go in a draft with a plan on what player will be available when it comes back around after waiting 15-20 picks seems impractical. I have participated in a gazillion drafts and I never had a draft that went according to my plan.

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48 minutes ago, Mr.Joshua said:

12th, Full prr, main league, I like wr/wr best, I get two of Beckham,JuJu & Hill. At the 3/4 I am going some combo of Mack, Henry, Diggs, Cooper and sometimes sprinkle in some Kittle. I have no problems with how my teams have been turning out.

Too risky I think. Henry and Mack fly off the board earlier than where you are picking more often than not. You’re more likely to get stuck with a pair of low end RB2s as your starters than those guys. 

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2 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Go in a draft with a plan on what player will be available when it comes back around after waiting 15-20 picks seems impractical. I have participated in a gazillion drafts and I never had a draft that went according to my plan.

 

They way I do it is group guys that are below the ADP you're picking at. They're almost always there and if not it's bc someone better fell. Like picking from 11 Im certain I'll atleasst get to pick two of Edelman, Godwin, diggs, Montgomery, Carson, or Ingram as of this week at the 3/4 turn. I usually find who I like better at the 3/4 and 5/6. This year I really don't like any of the wrs or rbs in the 5/6th better then guys I can get later so I'll probly get an elite QB in that range which I usually am one of the last to grab one

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5 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Go in a draft with a plan on what player will be available when it comes back around after waiting 15-20 picks seems impractical. I have participated in a gazillion drafts and I never had a draft that went according to my plan.

Pretty much this. 

Going WR/WR because you think you’ll get some guys 20+ picks later is crazy. I only truly plan my first two picks and after that it depends on how the draft unfolds. 

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19 minutes ago, scheibler said:

Alright so I did some math based on last year's positional ppg avg in ppr for a 2wr, 2rb, flex league. No matter which way you draft, if your guys live up to their ADP then you come out under 3pts a week difference no matter which direction you take....assuming you don't hit a HR at RB or WR and end up with a top 3 guy

<snip>

Unless you hit a miracle and your RB churns out 20ppg finishing top 4 then it doesn't seem smart to go RB late in the 1st. 

If you have a late 1st round pick and you: 

1. Go RB heavy early - you have a notable advantage IF your choices work out and performs at ADP or better and doesn't get hurt.  It's the high risk/high reward strategy that relies on your ability to pick the proper RBs correctly.  Difficult to execute when historically the RB position offers the most volatility in year-to-year performance and injury is much higher than other positions. 

2.  Go TE early - Locks in an elite option at a scarce position where the player sometimes nets you high WR1 points.  Downside is that you're almost guaranteeing that your WR2 or RB2 would be a weak Flex option on most other teams.  Plus you still need to hit on your RB1 choice (and hope like hell he doesn't get injured) otherwise you'll be rocking with Kenyan Drake as your RB1 and forced to start guys like Devin Singletary or CJ Andersen as your RB2 for a good part of the season.  

3. Go WR heavy early - Gives you a pair of "set and forget" players that tend to outscore all but the elite RBS on most weeks.  WRs tend to get injured less than the RBs also.  If things go right and other owners go RB heavy early, you can often spam RBs picks in the 3-8 rounds while they're taking their WRs and hopefully with 4-5 picks at least 2 of them hit and return RB3 level value or above (sometimes even top 5 RB overall if you're really lucky).  Means you won't need to spend precious WW position or FAAB bucks trying to upgrade your receiver corps.  But means you'll likely be scrambling to get any plausible RB talent off the wire.  And WRs tend to have more plausible options to stream that can get you WR3 or even WR2 points off the wire any given week if you pick the matchups properly.

4.  Take Best Player Available / Balanced Approach - Often a good approach, but risky because you're surrendering your fate to the draft choices others make in the draft. This approach works best if you have reason to believe that others in your league are going to deploy risky or irrational strategies that leave value on the table.  If they go chalk in the draft and pick players roughly at ADP then there's not going to be a lot of value differential to be exploited. You win big however if your draft starts balanced and then some guy unexpectedly falls you won't need to pass because "I already went WR/WR in the first 2 rounds, taking another WR instead of an RB would be stupid."  Without others leaving players available well past their ADP, you might as well be auto-drafting but in manual mode. 

#1 seems "safe" but in many ways is a "go for broke" approach.  2 and 3 give you much of the reward of 1 with less risk (presuming you don't screw up your RB pick when you make it).  #4 is the "safest" but also leads to a lot of very vanilla teams. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, jumper said:

I just ran the FantasyPros mock draft tool and those were the results with .5PPR setting enabled picking 10/12.  As of this moment here are these player rankings on FantasyPro at varied settings: 

Player | Standard | .5PPR | PPR

Diggs     34 | 30 | 29

Woods   38 | 39 | 35

Carson   40 | 46 | 55

Ingram   45 | 50 | 57

The point isn't to argue whether you or others think the FP results or rankings are right or wrong, or whether their mock draft tool presents "correct" results or not.   The point is to show what happens if you pick Kelce in the 1/2 round and give up the opportunity to draft a RB in the Conner/Bell/Mixon/Chubb/Cook class. 

Let's gameplay this out assuming these were your picks (all at or below their current ADP on FantasyPros) with each pick given pick 10 in a 12 team .5PPR draft.  Your first 6 picks roster would look like these, and the ESPN projected scoring for each player would tally like this (relative order of performance): 

1. RB + Kelce Pick in the 1/2

Conner (RB1) 268.4
Kelce  (TE) 283.6
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Mike Williams (WR2) 209.6
White  (Flex) 222.4

Total:  1450.7 fantasy points (projected)

2.  Double WR picks in the 1/2

OBJ (WR1)  281.5
JuJu (WR1)  281.8
Freeman (RB1) 245
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1439.3 fantasy points (projected)

3. Top RB + WR picks in the 1/2

Conner (RB1) 268.4
JuJu (WR1)  281.8
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1417.1 fantasy points (projected)

4. Top WR + RB picks in the 1/2

OBJ (WR1)  281.5
Chubb (RB1)  248.7
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1397.1 fantasy points (projected)

5. Double RB picks in the 1/2

Conner (RB1) 268.4
Chubb (RB1)  248.7
Cooks  (WR1) 235.9
Woods (WR2) 217.7
Engram (TE)  177.8
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total:  1370.9 fantasy points (projected)

 

 

 

So looking at this projection actually getting a top wr and kelce is the way to go at first.

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1 hour ago, jumper said:

The "problem" with picking from the tail end of a 12-team league snake draft is that you essentially have no chance at getting Kittle and are very unikely to get Ertz. Thus if you want an "elite" TE it's Kelce at the 1/2 turn or bust (meaning a TE in the Engram/Hunter Henry tier).  That consideration heavily impacts strategy options for a late 1st round pick.  If you were planning to wait on TE anyway you might not care. 

I agree that Kittle and Ertz aren't likely options for this particular spot.  I'm looking for Engram at the 5/6.  Although the new reports about Cook have me thinking about him as well.   If I don't get a TE there, I'm looking for Vance later on or maybe Andrews.  And I'll have to make a decision at that point whether I want to reach for one of them or if I'm OK just streaming. 

I have considered taking Kelce at the turn if all of the WR I like are gone.  Or if there is just one left.   Right now, I don't feel great about it.   It's going to be ugly if both Gordon and Zeke aren't playing to start the season.  

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2 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

So looking at this projection actually getting a top wr and kelce is the way to go at first.

If you did WR + Kelce: 

OBJ (WR1)  281.5
Kelce  (TE) 283.6
Jones (RB1)  205.6
Carson  (RB2) 230.8
Mike Williams (WR2) 209.6
White  (Flex)  222.4

Total: 1433.5  fantasy points (projected) 

So WR + Kelce Would slot in 3rd place of 6 behind RB + Kelce and Double WR but ahead of RB+WR.  Less than 20 points separating the top 2 strategies however so any of them could come out on top given expected actual variation from pre-season projections, and any of the 3 will likely outperform RB/RB (absent some results that are probably more than 2-3 standard deviations above expectations from the RB/RB combo). 


 

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One thing I will say is WR/WR has the highest ceiling. You aren't going to find a Hopkins or Julio like WR in the later rounds. Just doesn't happen. A "breakout" WR is going to give you WR2 production and that's it. However, RB1s always emerge from later rounds and almost every year you can find a dude that produces as a top 5 RB over the tail end of the season. So if you go WR/WR and nail your RB picks you are going to obliterate your league. This claim even stands more true for WR/TE since TE is even less likely to break out. Honestly, the highest potential draft I see is something like:

Hopkins/Kelce/Henry/Cooper/Guice/Sanders/Henderson/R.Freeman/Murray/Ballage/Tate/McKinnon

Something like that if you REALLY want to maximize potential. That gives you:

QB - Murray - top 5 potential

RB - Henry - top 5 potential

RB - Guice - top 10 potential

WR - Hopkins - borderline guaranteed top 5

WR - Cooper - top 5 potential 

TE - Kelce - guaranteed top 3

FLEX: Freeman - top 10 potential 

 

Personally, i'd never do this. I'm only confident that Hopkins and Kelce will perform well enough for their slotted position. However, if you want to swing for the fences why not? Also every single RB on your bench has top 10 potential if things pan out. Hell, guys like Henderson and Sanders have top 5 potential running for those offenses.

Edited by Gohawks
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4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why are we talking about 1999?  You realize every year is different, right?

 

If you want your RB’s to be Henry and Ingram then go WR/WR.

We're talking about 1999 because you started this whole thing by saying you ALWAYS go RB/WR

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6 minutes ago, Fabrini said:

We're talking about 1999 because you started this whole thing by saying you ALWAYS go RB/WR

Yes, always in 2019.  Most people do more than 1 league.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yes, always in 2019.  Most people do more than 1 league.

Thanks for the clarification

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I'd like to go WR/WR at pick 9/12 but if I don't get Mack and/or Aaron Jones, then I feel like my team kinda sucks.  I know RBs that get tons  of carries will be easier to find throughout the year but I feel a little hamstrung for the first 4-5 weeks if I have to start Henry and Miller or some other chud at RB.  

 

I would be fine if I ended up going Leveon/JuJu or Adams/Chubb.  I'll likely go WR/RB or RB/WR, and if I feel spicy maybe Bell/Kelce.  Can always come back with solid mid round WRs.  I might even have the balls if it fell a certain way to go Bell/Gurley, but I don't think that opp will present itself in my league.

Edited by Mustangt125

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Sorry for the double post, but just did at mock at 9/12 PPR going WR/WR and gotta say I am liking it more than I thought I would, though I still stand by needing one or both of Jones/Mack if doing that.  

 1- Julio

2- JuJu

3- Aaron Jones

4 - Chris Carson

5 - Watkins 

6 - Phil Lindsay

Edited by Mustangt125

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24 minutes ago, Mustangt125 said:

Sorry for the double post, but just did at mock at 9/12 PPR going WR/WR and gotta say I am liking it more than I thought I would, though I still stand by needing one or both of Jones/Mack if doing that.  

 1- Julio

2- JuJu

3- Aaron Jones

4 - Chris Carson

5 - Watkins 

6 - Phil Lindsay

Pretty solid except I am not a fan of Watkins that early.  Who else was there at WR when you drafted him?

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29 minutes ago, Mustangt125 said:

Sorry for the double post, but just did at mock at 9/12 PPR going WR/WR and gotta say I am liking it more than I thought I would, though I still stand by needing one or both of Jones/Mack if doing that.  

 1- Julio

2- JuJu

3- Aaron Jones

4 - Chris Carson

5 - Watkins 

6 - Phil Lindsay

 

I'm seeing Lindsay fall which is crazy given the injury to Riddick. 6th round is good value. The Watkins pick was way early. You could've gotten him two rounds later. Which RB's, WR's and TE's were available in the 5th round?

Edited by nonstopfan

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33 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

Pretty solid except I am not a fan of Watkins that early.  Who else was there at WR when you drafted him?

 

In that range I hope for Mike Williams to be sitting there. Alshon is almost always there along with Fitz. I like the next round of guys....Corey Davis, Samuel on Carolina, and MVS. I think I'll probly nab Jared cook here as he won't make it back to me in my league or even grab an elite QB

Edited by scheibler

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16 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

In that range I hope for Mike Williams to be sitting there. Alshon is almost always there along with Fitz. I like the next round of guys....Corey Davis, Samuel on Carolina, and MVS. I think I'll probly nab Jared cook here as he won't make it back to me in my league or even grab an elite QB

 

Agree on the TE or elite QB. I actually really love Fitz this year in that system with Murray and you can draft him later too.

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6 hours ago, scheibler said:

 

I like this team and picked guys easily attainable

QB- Winston/Cam

RB- Ingram

RB- Carson

WR- Juju

WR- Mike Williams

Flex- Ekeler

TE- Kelce

Best bench wrs: Corey Davis, MVS, Samuel, etc

 

 

 

I agree with something like this

 

M thomas 1st

Kelce 2nd

Freeman 3rd

Ingram 4th

Mike williams/ boyd/ c Davis 5th

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I just had a half point PPR draft picking out of the #9 spot and grabbed Odell Beckham and Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster in rounds 1 and 2 because the rb's were flying off the board in the 1st round.  Then I picked Devonta Freeman and David Montgomery next in rounds 3 and 4 to be my top 2 rb's.  I think I did ok though Freeman and Montgomery both carry some risk for different reasons.

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