dboong

2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

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32 minutes ago, tdye said:

I agree that 75-100 guys are usually not much more valuable than guys around 150. Value drops off a lot quicker early in drafts. 

Also, you would have to add the z-score for the player paired with AD, which is almost certainly negative for a waiver wire guy. I agree that the difference between AD/Harden last year and everyone else was more than most people realize and that we should compare how much value players add over waiver-wire players, but only 60 guys had a positive z-score on BBM last year if you are using that as a reference. Then you can't assume a z-score of 0 for the guy paired with AD unless you think you can get a top-60 player from the wire (although you might be able to get one for cheap like suggested in a later post, in which case you are right).

 

Here is an experiment to test things. I switched to Embiid+Horford instead to make the stats easier to compare

AD: 25.9/12.0/3.9 with 0.9 threes, 1.6stl,2.4blk on 51.7%fg (18.3 attempts), 79.4%ft (7.7att),2.7tos

Embiid+Horford: 41.1/20.3/7.8 with 2.3threes,1.6stl,3.2blk on 50.2%fg (29.3att), 80.7%ft (11.5att),5.0tos 

Then a guy to pair with AD would need to average this to get the same value as Embiid+Horford:

15.2/8.3/3.9 with 1.4 threes, 0.0steals,0.8blocks on 47.7%fg (11.0att),83.3%ft(3.8att),2.3tos.

Even if you increase the steals a bit and reduce everything else but turnovers, you would need something like 13/6/3 or better with strong solid peripheral stats. That would be difficult to get off the waiver wire in most leagues. Prince's stats last year would only be enough in 3 categories. Then again, I don't expect Horford to put up top-30 value again, so I might take AD over him+Embiid or Lillard anyway depending on the league.

 

So basically, Dwight Powell (as a starter) minus maybe an assist or two? But with extra steals and less turnovers.

Edited by Stallion
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34 minutes ago, tdye said:

I agree that 75-100 guys are usually not much more valuable than guys around 150. Value drops off a lot quicker early in drafts. 

Also, you would have to add the z-score for the player paired with AD, which is almost certainly negative for a waiver wire guy. I agree that the difference between AD/Harden last year and everyone else was more than most people realize and that we should compare how much value players add over waiver-wire players, but only 60 guys had a positive z-score on BBM last year if you are using that as a reference. Then you can't assume a z-score of 0 for the guy paired with AD unless you think you can get a top-60 player from the wire (although you might be able to get one for cheap like suggested in a later post, in which case you are right).

 

Here is an experiment to test things. I switched to Embiid+Horford instead to make the stats easier to compare

AD: 25.9/12.0/3.9 with 0.9 threes, 1.6stl,2.4blk on 51.7%fg (18.3 attempts), 79.4%ft (7.7att),2.7tos

Embiid+Horford: 41.1/20.3/7.8 with 2.3threes,1.6stl,3.2blk on 50.2%fg (29.3att), 80.7%ft (11.5att),5.0tos 

Then a guy to pair with AD would need to average this to get the same value as Embiid+Horford:

15.2/8.3/3.9 with 1.4 threes, 0.0steals,0.8blocks on 47.7%fg (11.0att),83.3%ft(3.8att),2.3tos.

Even if you increase the steals a bit and reduce everything else but turnovers, you would need something like 13/6/3 or better with strong solid peripheral stats. That would be difficult to get off the waiver wire in most leagues. Prince's stats last year would only be enough in 3 categories. Then again, I don't expect Horford to put up top-30 value again, so I might take AD over him+Embiid or Lillard anyway depending on the league.

I already accounted for that.  Players off the wire are usually around -.2.  AD is 1.1.  That equals .9 

Lillard is .51 plus Horford .24=.75

Embiid is .57 plus Horford=.79

 

You're moving the goalpost bc Embiid was not the original comparison.  Also, the numbers you posted for AD were artificially depleted due to the 20 game stretch where he played for only one half of each game.  

 

AD's real averages are more like: 28/12/4 with 2.6 blocks, 1.6 steals, .9 three.  50/80/2.2 TO.  I don't know where you got the 2.7 TOs from bc he averaged 2.0 last year.

 

So the wire guy would really need to average more like 13/8/4, the other numbers are close to accurate except for your error in Tos which would allow the other player to get up to 2.8.  

 

Are there 13/8/4 guys on the wire...well not really?  That's an awfully specific line to get from the wire.  But are there guys who get 13+ points, 1.4 threes, with under 2.8 TOs?  The wire is littered with guys like that.  Ross was picked up from the wire in several leagues last year, so let's use him as a starting point.  15/3.5/1.7 with 2.7 threes, .9 steals, .4 blocks on 43/87 shooting with 1 TO.  That would exceed your needs in points, threes, steals, ft, and TOs.  It would lose in rebounds, assists, blocks, fg. 

 

Ross has score of negative .13.  So combined it comes to .98 for Ad and Ross compared to .79 for Embiid + Horford.  AD + Ross > Embiid + Horford statistically. 

 

Also, notably I think you can get AD for around $75 in most auctions and Ross for $1 while Embiid goes for close to $60 and Horford $20.  AD plus Ross is probably cheaper.  Depends on the league.

 

Then it comes down to playoff schedule and whether you think Embiid or AD will have more rest days.  

 

You also didn't account for streaming in which case sure the guys you stream may not meet those numbers for an entire season but smash it for the brief period of time you use them.

 

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I don't want to edit my entire post but I think you erroneously attributed PG13's 2.7 TO to AD.  AD averaged 2.0.  I figured it out when I saw PG13 directly below him.

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9 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I already accounted for that.  Players off the wire are usually around -.2.  AD is 1.1.  That equals .9 

Lillard is .51 plus Horford .24=.75

Embiid is .57 plus Horford=.79

 

You're moving the goalpost bc Embiid was not the original comparison.  Also, the numbers you posted for AD were artificially depleted due to the 20 game stretch where he played for only one half of each game.  

 

AD's real averages are more like: 28/12/4 with 2.6 blocks, 1.6 steals, .9 three.  50/80/2.2 TO.  I don't know where you got the 2.7 TOs from bc he averaged 2.0 last year.

 

So the wire guy would really need to average more like 13/8/4, the other numbers are close to accurate except for your error in Tos which would allow the other player to get up to 2.8.  

 

Are there 13/8/4 guys on the wire...well not really?  That's an awfully specific line to get from the wire.  But are there guys who get 13+ points, 1.4 threes, with under 2.8 TOs?  The wire is littered with guys like that.  Ross was picked up from the wire in several leagues last year, so let's use him as a starting point.  15/3.5/1.7 with 2.7 threes, .9 steals, .4 blocks on 43/87 shooting with 1 TO.  That would exceed your needs in points, threes, steals, ft, and TOs.  It would lose in rebounds, assists, blocks, fg. 

 

Ross has score of negative .13.  So combined it comes to .98 for Ad and Ross compared to .79 for Embiid + Horford.  AD + Ross > Embiid + Horford statistically. 

 

Also, notably I think you can get AD for around $75 in most auctions and Ross for $1 while Embiid goes for close to $60 and Horford $20.  AD plus Ross is probably cheaper.  Depends on the league.

 

Then it comes down to playoff schedule and whether you think Embiid or AD will have more rest days.  

 

You also didn't account for streaming in which case sure the guys you stream may not meet those numbers for an entire season but smash it for the brief period of time you use them.

 

 

I agree with a lot of what you are saying about the value of the zscore metric but adding together z-scores is not how you do the math you are attempting.

 

Dray green had a zscore of 0.01 last year. Which was 6th round, about 10-14$ in auction. Thats about 1/6 the 80 or so dollars AD was worth.

By your zscore math AD = 100 Dray Greens?

I believe you need t-score instead which is nomalized z-scores to a non-negative scale and is what sites like bbm use to calculate auction value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, jsquints said:

 

I agree with a lot of what you are saying about the value of the zscore metric but adding together z-scores is not how you do the math you are attempting.

 

Dray green had a zscore of 0.01 last year. Which was 6th round, about 10-14$ in auction. Thats about 1/6 the 80 or so dollars AD was worth.

By your zscore math AD = 100 Dray Greens?

I believe you need t-score instead which is nomalized z-scores to a non-negative scale and is what sites like bbm use to calculate auction value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

My initial point was merely that AD is more valuable than Lillard plus Horford combined and was using that simply for illustrative purposes to show how valuable AD is.  The rest was fallout from responding to them.  If you want to use auction values, that's not a part of the free version of BBM, and I don't know who has what tools.  Other free sites have their auction values normalized according to a non-negative scale, e.g. Hastag: AD=$80; Embiid=$56; Lillard=$51; Horford=$20.  Under any metric AD plus WW add > Lillard (or Embiid) + Horford.

 

The comparison to Draymond Green isn't fair.  It's more like do I think 1 AD + the 9 best ww pickups > 10 Draymond Greens?  Yes, I do, if you use Green's numbers from last year.  The Draymond side would "win" assists, rebounds, and stocks only.  The AD side would win points, threes, and each of the three efficiency cats.    

Edited by StifleTower2
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11 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

What I'm wondering about z-score is that would the roto winner really have the highest z-score 100% of the time? 

 

Z score is just a part of recipe for success. A very important one.
The other one is correct team building strategy.
It's like building a house - you need enough bricks (funny comparison, I know), then you can put them in desired shapes.

And I agree that top players make that much difference. Not sure however if it's only Harden/AD, or maybe KAT/Curry (if not heavily load managed/injured) in roto as well.
And that's why - to me - snake drafts suck.

Even in H2H we can easily manage cat overkills by team building correctly later on.

But anyway - we're getting far from the sleeper/bust conversation. Unless the conclusion is that every player from not the list presented above will be a bust when priced at similar range 🙂

Edited by slmroz
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Guess we can add Herro to this list.. dude can flat out ball, reminds me of a young pre injury mike miller.

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3 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

Guess we can add Herro to this list.. dude can flat out ball, reminds me of a young pre injury mike miller.

 

He's been there for a while:

 

Quote

Tyler Herro – Pat Riley loves this guy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat give him a lot of run from the get-go. Herro won me over and should be able to carve out a decent role for the Heat – as many said, his game is reminiscent of Devin Booker’s. Could deliver on threes and steals, but also a sneaky good driver, so he’ll get a decent amount of FT’s too. If he fixes his dribbling (too high), he could make a move to PG. S

 

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Two parter, but I think both Doncic and Wright will be busts against their ADP.  I don’t trust Doncic’s % and TO’s. The end of last year was really sketchy, and while he put up nice popcorn stats, that was about it.  I also hate that Delon ended up in Dallas because I think they’ll use Doncic as the primary ball handler and look to get open looks for Wright, which isn’t his strength. I’d like to see the Mavs stagger their minutes because when Delon is running the show he puts up strong numbers.  As for Doncic, I wouldn’t take him before 35-40 or so personally

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15 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

Guess we can add Herro to this list.. dude can flat out ball, reminds me of a young pre injury mike miller.

 

I was thinking he might be a future JJ Reddick. I don't know much about him so I'm probably wrong.

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Daniel Gafford is the exact kind of raw big man prospect you want to roster in deep or dynasty leagues, as all he needs is 20 min / game to have value, and the one guy in front of him missed significant time with injury last year, and acquired 2 minor injuries in the first 2 days of practice lol...

 

Anyway, whenever he gets large minutes you can plug him in and he can be the typical 60%FG 10 reb 2 blocks off the waiver kind of player.  Sadly most standard leagues have a short bench, so rostering him would be difficult and inadvisable for the short term.  

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19 minutes ago, DZaak said:

 

I was thinking he might be a future JJ Reddick. I don't know much about him so I'm probably wrong.

 

Except his game has so much more flair and handles to create space than Reddick...making him harder to defend...to think he's barely a rookie and his footwork and moves to get his shot off are close to elite...plus his range is elite...

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On 10/8/2019 at 8:13 PM, StifleTower2 said:

The comparison to Draymond Green isn't fair.

Im only calling out the improper math because people read this stuff and might start adding up zscores and thinking it means something it doesnt.

 

In regards to making my point dray green is 100% fair.

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I would like to know your Opinion on Ish Smith. Wall ist out and i think IT is done. It's most likely that Smith will see 32 mins a Night. The last time that he was a Starter on a bad Team he was able to put up some decent numbers in Philly 2015/2016

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12 minutes ago, Mj66 said:

I would like to know your Opinion on Ish Smith. Wall ist out and i think IT is done. It's most likely that Smith will see 32 mins a Night. The last time that he was a Starter on a bad Team he was able to put up some decent numbers in Philly 2015/2016

i'll pass. think beal will have most the ball handling duties

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Musa is really good. In a dynasty deep league i think he has great value.

Edited by RipCity0
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4 hours ago, Mj66 said:

I would like to know your Opinion on Ish Smith. Wall ist out and i think IT is done. It's most likely that Smith will see 32 mins a Night. The last time that he was a Starter on a bad Team he was able to put up some decent numbers in Philly 2015/2016

He’s never really been top 100 and I don’t think he will be now.  His stocks suck, his threes are low, and he isn’t an efficient shooter.  His main draw is 5 assists late.  10/5/5 with under a three and a steal.  42/76 with 1.5 TO.  But I’ve taken a few flyers on his just to see.  

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1 hour ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

Norman Powell looks fantastic so far, can't wait to see how he goes this season. 

Agreed - I was strongly considering adding him in dynasty but finally went with other interesting guy - Matisse Thybulle, who seems to have crazy st3cks upside and should get minutes in philly rotation.

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3 hours ago, michael_scott said:

Agreed - I was strongly considering adding him in dynasty but finally went with other interesting guy - Matisse Thybulle, who seems to have crazy st3cks upside and should get minutes in philly rotation.

 

Nice.  I just added him in a deep league...could very easily be 1/1/1 in just 15 or 20 min/night...

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6 minutes ago, t0087669 said:

PJ Washington, could start for Hornets, anything to see here?


Added him in one of my dynasty leagues. I think he is worth a look in deeper formats since Hornets are rebuilding. I think eventually he will take over Zeller's role, whether that will be this season is another question. 

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Just drafted a squad. Don’t know if this post belongs here but if it does, could anyone tell me how I did? It’s a head to head 14 team league. I had the 8th pick.  Any sleepers I could pick up off waivers? Who should I boot? 

LeBron- 8 

Drummond - 21

Mitchell Robinson - 36

Bledsoe - 49

Isaac - 64

LeVert - 77

Smart - 92

Delon Wright - 105

Derrick White - 120

Zach Collins - 133

Poeltl - 148

Jerami Grant - 161

Dennis Smith JR - 178

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59 minutes ago, 7614 said:

Just drafted a squad. Don’t know if this post belongs here but if it does, could anyone tell me how I did? It’s a head to head 14 team league. I had the 8th pick.  Any sleepers I could pick up off waivers? Who should I boot? 

LeBron- 8 

Drummond - 21

Mitchell Robinson - 36

Bledsoe - 49

Isaac - 64

LeVert - 77

Smart - 92

Delon Wright - 105

Derrick White - 120

Zach Collins - 133

Poeltl - 148

Jerami Grant - 161

Dennis Smith JR - 178

 

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