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2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

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Fizdale is favouring Payton to start the point. Probs worth a flier on your last pick if you are short on assists.

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i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league

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Just now, hudasknow said:

i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league

Not at all. Wendall falling to 7th I would consider that a steal in a 16man league. And grabbing Huerter at 8th wasn't a reach at all. I have him projected hopefully to be in the top100

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3 hours ago, hudasknow said:

i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league


wendell no, huerter no considering it’s 16 team. That being said, generally you don’t need to reach unless you really want a guy and absolutely believe they will outplay their adp.

I’ve done at least 40 mocks plus my real draft and he actually slips into the 11th a bunch and almost always gets taken at his round (in 12 man).

One of the reasons is yahoo gave him a really ugly projection, his percentages look nasty on there, so people don’t buy in and they haven’t seen him in preseason, that’s what makes it better since you won’t have to ready to get him.

I stopped listening to RW podcasts because they would make you think every sleeper needs to be reached for otherwise you won’t get them, that fear creates anxiety around every single pick, and it messes up your draft because you’ll take guys at ridiculous rounds where they bring you zero value. 
 

You’re much better off just doing a bunch of mocks and you’ll get a good understanding of which sleepers people want, and which ones most don’t care about. 

Edited by Lifschitz
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3 hours ago, hudasknow said:

i had Wendell Carter Jr. and Kevin Huerter for my 7th and 8th pick, did i picked them way too early for a sleeper?

i was worried that they will be gone on 9th and 10th round considering that we are a 16 team league

7th and 8th for 16 deep is similar to 10/11 in 12 deep.  I don’t think anyone would consider those a stretch around pick 100+.  Particularly not Wendell 

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Collin Sexton I think deserves a call out here, if he hasn't already. Nobody will provide you high points on decent FG and high FT after pick 120. 

He has shown he can hit threes as well. I don't think Garland will impact him as much as people think. 

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4 minutes ago, SicarioSanity said:

Collin Sexton I think deserves a call out here, if he hasn't already. Nobody will provide you high points on decent FG and high FT after pick 120. 

He has shown he can hit threes as well. I don't think Garland will impact him as much as people think. 

I agree.  I think he can be around 19/3/3 with two threes.  He also said it's a goal to be a 90% FT shooter and I actually think he can do it.  That's not a stat that relies on others so if he sets his mind to it he can probably get there, or close to it.  I heard a podcast about how it's interesting that he was projected to me a 3 and D specialist but people had reservations about his scoring ability.  Last year in scored in bunches but no defense.  If he can get over one steal so his final line is 19/3/3 with 2 threes, 1 steal 45%/90% and can stay under 2.5 TOs then that's Jamal Murray territory.  He's not that far off as is.  I think he has top 100 potential.

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5 hours ago, IT2 said:

Fizdale is favouring Payton to start the point. Probs worth a flier on your last pick if you are short on assists.

 I would love for this to happen. but Id rather see Ntilikina

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6 hours ago, IT2 said:

Fizdale is favouring Payton to start the point. Probs worth a flier on your last pick if you are short on assists.

 

41 minutes ago, ellejamil said:

 I would love for this to happen. but Id rather see Ntilikina

 

I was under the impression that DSJ was the frontrunner and Fizdale hadn't decided yet:

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-knicks/new-york-knicks-dennis-smith-jr-is-still-front-runner-for-starting-point-guard-spot/

https://nypost.com/2019/10/13/dennis-smith-jr-on-verge-of-igniting-knicks-roster-battle/

 

Fiz also said he dominated training camps before his sprain. Fiz also said this about DSJ recently:

Quote

“I feel like he can be a point guard. You’ve got to remember, in our league now, the point-guard spot is a scoring position,” Fizdale said. “I think it’s more scoring points now than it is distributors. He fits that mold of being a scoring point guard.”

 

 

So I think after Payton laid a goose egg in scoring in his last game, I'm kinda watching DSJ more than I'm watching Payton. He could defo be better than DSJ, but DSJ has stocks and 3s potential and if he's improved his shooting as reports suggested, he could have standard league value

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7 hours ago, s-kayos said:

 

 

I was under the impression that DSJ was the frontrunner and Fizdale hadn't decided yet:

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-knicks/new-york-knicks-dennis-smith-jr-is-still-front-runner-for-starting-point-guard-spot/

https://nypost.com/2019/10/13/dennis-smith-jr-on-verge-of-igniting-knicks-roster-battle/

 

Fiz also said he dominated training camps before his sprain. Fiz also said this about DSJ recently:

 

 

So I think after Payton laid a goose egg in scoring in his last game, I'm kinda watching DSJ more than I'm watching Payton. He could defo be better than DSJ, but DSJ has stocks and 3s potential and if he's improved his shooting as reports suggested, he could have standard league value


Plus DSJ is only 21, whereas Payton has had major gaps in his game and has yet to fill them at 25.  If I were a rebuilding Knicks team I would see what I could get out of DSJ. 

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13 hours ago, Lifschitz said:


wendell no, huerter no considering it’s 16 team. That being said, generally you don’t need to reach unless you really want a guy and absolutely believe they will outplay their adp.

I’ve done at least 40 mocks plus my real draft and he actually slips into the 11th a bunch and almost always gets taken at his round (in 12 man).

One of the reasons is yahoo gave him a really ugly projection, his percentages look nasty on there, so people don’t buy in and they haven’t seen him in preseason, that’s what makes it better since you won’t have to ready to get him.

I stopped listening to RW podcasts because they would make you think every sleeper needs to be reached for otherwise you won’t get them, that fear creates anxiety around every single pick, and it messes up your draft because you’ll take guys at ridiculous rounds where they bring you zero value. 
 

You’re much better off just doing a bunch of mocks and you’ll get a good understanding of which sleepers people want, and which ones most don’t care about. 

Yea buddy. I hate all these articles and hate even more that RW put out a damn mock points draft exposing all these late ranked sleepers and taking them early. 

 

When you pay 2-3 extra rounds sooner than normal, it's really not a "steal" anymore 

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4 hours ago, Kriggly said:


Plus DSJ is only 21, whereas Payton has had major gaps in his game and has yet to fill them at 25.  If I were a rebuilding Knicks team I would see what I could get out of DSJ. 

You guys are making too much sense. But its Fizdale and the Knicks we are talking about here 😢 

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9 hours ago, Dominator83 said:

Yea buddy. I hate all these articles and hate even more that RW put out a damn mock points draft exposing all these late ranked sleepers and taking them early. 

 

When you pay 2-3 extra rounds sooner than normal, it's really not a "steal" anymore 

 

They've been doing this for the last 4-5 years, and a lot of this is spurred by Gallagher. He gets hyped on every single sleeper, he says you must take him 4-5 rounds higher if you want to get him, and then they all start jumping in because none of the "experts" want the other guys to have "their guy". It's become a joke, RW used to be a decently trusted source for info, now they're regularly WAY off on multiple sleepers to the point where it looks really dumb if anyone actually checks hindsight blurbs and columns. 

Gallagher had this funny thing last week where he sighed when he mentioned Marquese Chriss. Yeah you should sigh, you told people to take this guy in the 4th and 5th round of drafts, it was ******** insane. They did the same s--- with Anthony Randolph, Jamal Murray, James Johnson, Josh Richardson, Dennis Schroder, Aaron Gordon, and this year they're doing it with SGA. In their pod not too long ago they concluded unanimously that you must take SGA in the 3rd - 4th round if you want him, what?!?

In another pod they were discussing Jimmy Butler and just how good and solid he is, to which Gallagher noted that yeah I know he's good, but I just don't like players over a certain age. You mean you almost exclusively target first, second year, and third year players every season. He even mentioned several guys who were still in their prime in their late 20's and he found it to be egregious should anyone pick them because "they're too old". 

I'm really curious how he does in his standings in the pro leagues, I'm willing to bet he ends up dropping a lot of roster half way through the year or is having to hang onto sleepers for months because now he's handcuffed - their appeal is too good to let go, but their current production is a detriment to your team. I've been there, and I had a lot of the same philosophy he did about players, and it was killing my drafts and league results because I never used to draft like that. Now I'm back to taking a healthy mix of productive solid players and young sleepers (in the rounds where they should be logically taken), so phasing out any RW content has really helped me. 

To the earlier point about drafting mistakes from listening to their stuff, I ended up taking Dennis Schroder and Aaron Gordon 4 rounds higher than they were meant to go, it cost me big time. Aaron Gordon barely produced on fringe 100 value most of the year outside of the first month or so when he looked like a stud until he got injured (this was two years ago). They said Schroder is going to be one of the best PGs in the league. I ended up taking these guys in the 4th-5th rounds, I paid dearly. I surrounded KAT with bums who didn't pay out their actual round value. When I skimmed over my draft, I couldn't believe how many current successful players I passed up while other guys just took the BPAs and I reached for sleepers no one cared about.

Do mocks, I've only seen SGA go 5th round ONCE out of 40+ times. In my real draft last week he went in the 6th, that's about where he normally goes, and I've seen him go at 7 as well. 

What value is there in grabbing this guy like he's going to produce like a 2nd or 3rd rounder? You're betting with absolute certainty he has an unbelievable season, and that RARELY happens to 2nd year players unless they're phenoms (KAT, LeBron, AD, etc.). Even Giannis wasn't that great in his 2nd year.

Don't forget they talked up Schroder just like they're talking up SGA now.

I just can't take RW seriously anymore, they've lost a lot of credibility, they've even started giving 30% discounts on their draft guide (as far as I can recall they've never done this in the past), that's a red flag to me that they didn't get much interest in their content.

I enjoy their forums, I read their blurbs just to stay updated, but this year I've really held myself in check on not making any hasty moves prior to the season starting - I've drafted guys where they're supposed to be drafted, I've not made any rash decisions to go out and grab any of these rookies and sophs performing well in preseason (Wagner, Culver, Porter, Simons, etc.), so I'll just wait until the first month or so to assess where I sit, because from years of experience I know there'll be plenty of pickups and I don't need to make any hasty moves unless a guy really just shows out in the first week and you know he's going to be a stud for most of the season.

When you read what most people say around here, what you notice is that a lot of people win their leagues taking guys who are dropping in drafts who used to be popular, like Gallinari, or Tobias Harris. This year those guys will be Lowry or Horford. Let other people take Isaac in the top 50 while you sneak in the guy that performs well every season and people forget about (CJ McCollum for example - grossly underrated).

One trend I've noticed in recent years is that they flip flop on their blurbs all the time. Not sure whether its different writers or what, but one second they tell you go get this guy, and the next day they say leave him on the wire, it gets confusing with pickups.

Edited by Lifschitz
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14 hours ago, Kriggly said:


Plus DSJ is only 21, whereas Payton has had major gaps in his game and has yet to fill them at 25.  If I were a rebuilding Knicks team I would see what I could get out of DSJ. 

 

I don't think the Knicks plan this year is to rebuild, it's to win games. So I'm pretty sure whoever gives them the best chance to win will get the PT at point guard. 

They didn't bring in randle, Portis, Gibson and Morris to rebuild. Those guys clog up the PT for a kid like Knox. So that should tell you what their plan is for this year. 

With all that said, the log jam plus the ability if RJ to run the offense would lower my rankings of all the PG options.

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Never been a fan of him (that's me being a Blazers fan) - but MMeyers Leonard is someone to keep an eye on. The PF position is still quite open in Miami and he's been playing really well. His skillset also matches well with that Miami Heat roster/starting five, and he's a guy who doesn't hurt your %'s or TO's. As a low end free agent addition he could be a nice gamble. Don't expect blocks, though. He'd be among the league worst among guards, even. 

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34 minutes ago, perkinsfor3 said:

Never been a fan of him (that's me being a Blazers fan) - but MMeyers Leonard is someone to keep an eye on. The PF position is still quite open in Miami and he's been playing really well. His skillset also matches well with that Miami Heat roster/starting five, and he's a guy who doesn't hurt your %'s or TO's. As a low end free agent addition he could be a nice gamble. Don't expect blocks, though. He'd be among the league worst among guards, even. 

But Heats already has similar type stretch 4/5---Kelly Olynyk 

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1 hour ago, kane said:

But Heats already has similar type stretch 4/5---Kelly Olynyk 

Injured, missed preparation and not perse better than Meyers (Olynyk's handles are better though). When he's 100%, it could go either way - but by that timr, Meyers could have carved out a role and good chemistry.

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In a 9 cat roto, picked up Collins, Herro, Prince, Grant as my final 4 picks.... pretty much all pre-season all stars!!

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16 minutes ago, 7614 said:

Who do you think will have a better season overall? Trez Harrell or LeVert? 

Going Levert here!!! The stars are all aligned for him to take the next step this year with KD out. Harrell was gifted with two alphas who’ll likely limit his touches

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2 hours ago, 7614 said:

Who do you think will have a better season overall? Trez Harrell or LeVert? 

The Monstrez!

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4 hours ago, Taipan said:

Going Levert here!!! The stars are all aligned for him to take the next step this year with KD out. Harrell was gifted with two alphas who’ll likely limit his touches

He seems like a streaky scorer to me. I don’t know what else he can being to the table. He’s decent at steals and assists for his position, but thats it. Trez stuffs the stat sheet with blocks, rebounds, steals and FG%. Unless LeVert breaks out into a 20ppg game scorer, I don’t know where his value rests. Especially in head to head. 

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11 hours ago, 7614 said:

He seems like a streaky scorer to me. I don’t know what else he can being to the table. He’s decent at steals and assists for his position, but thats it. Trez stuffs the stat sheet with blocks, rebounds, steals and FG%. Unless LeVert breaks out into a 20ppg game scorer, I don’t know where his value rests. Especially in head to head. 

Levert has the potential to score (even 15 - 20), drop dimes (even 3-6), hit more 3s (1.5+) and generate steals (1.2-1.6), as mentioned often the unknown is the %s.

Trezz' blocks last year could be an outlier and while Levert should see more minutes Trezz might play less

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30 minutes ago, chaiway said:

Levert has the potential to score (even 15 - 20), drop dimes (even 3-6), hit more 3s (1.5+) and generate steals (1.2-1.6), as mentioned often the unknown is the %s.

Trezz' blocks last year could be an outlier and while Levert should see more minutes Trezz might play less

Who would take minutes from Trezz? Zubac? 

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8 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Who would take minutes from Trezz? Zubac? 

 

I can see the C rotation as Zu/Trezz/Jmike.

Where Zu starts and plays limited minutes (~20) and Jmike gets some minutes as well as a small ball 5 who can stretch the floor with Harkless at the 4. He played 26.3 m/g last year which I don't see him exceeding. 

The other aspect is the usage during those minutes which also has the potential to decrease as he was running at 27% usage for the last 2 months.

 

To clarify - I'm not sure that either mins or usage will decrease but it could. Levert on the flip side was hurt a lot of the year which capped his minutes and with a potential role as the second fiddle and more on ball responsibilities (hopefully) has a chance to jump in minutes.

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