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2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

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On 8/20/2019 at 2:06 PM, Fantasyscrub said:

 

Donovan Mitchell - top 35 but should finish around 60 on the season

Mitchell finished #56 last season in 9 cats but you are expecting no improvements even though Utah brought in Bogs and Conley to help with spacing. Utah's improved spacing and shooting should dramatically boost Mitchell's efficiency and assist numbers.  I realistically expect a top 25-ish season from Donovan.

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4 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Mitchell finished #56 last season in 9 cats but you are expecting no improvements even though Utah brought in Bogs and Conley to help with spacing. Utah's improved spacing and shooting should dramatically boost Mitchell's efficiency and assist numbers.  I realistically expect a top 25-ish season from Donovan.

Not to mention he’s durable and the Jazz have one of the best playoff schedules.  I don’t expect him to finish higher than 30 in per game.  I do expect some FG/To improvement.  And if you’re including playoff schedule and durability in his evaluation he has to be second round imo. 

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1 hour ago, El_Chingon said:

Mitchell finished #56 last season in 9 cats but you are expecting no improvements even though Utah brought in Bogs and Conley to help with spacing. Utah's improved spacing and shooting should dramatically boost Mitchell's efficiency and assist numbers.  I realistically expect a top 25-ish season from Donovan.

I expect him to improve but it may not translate to fantasy value. Increased assists could easily be offset by turnovers and an increase in efficiency can be offset by less scoring. Everyone seems to talk about the improved efficiency and easier shots he'll get but ignore the fact they brought in two starters who averaged a combined 39 points replacing Rubio and Ingles who combined for 25.  The key to Mitchells value will be steals which could and should be better.

Unfortunately he's just better in real life. I think the possibility of him ending up in the 50-60 range is more likely than top 25 but personally I think he'll end up somewhere between 35-45. On a per game basis I think Conley will be better, but durability is the obvious difference.

Edited by FantasyBallFan

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^^ingles isn't being replaced, favors is the guy being replaced.  And Rubio who can't really shoot threes either.  Much better spacing for Mitchell to work with, which will help him in real life and in fantasy.  Don't see any downside here.  Fewer turnovers from trying to force things in a clogged paint, less iso and fewer forced shots to beat the shot clock, more assists to guys who can hit open shots.  

Edited by El_Chingon

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5 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

^^ingles isn't being replaced, favors is the guy being replaced.  And Rubio who can't really shoot threes either.  Much better spacing for Mitchell to work with, which will help him in real life and in fantasy.

These guys aren't just shooters like Kyle Korver. Both of them, specifically Conley are real scorers and the chance that Mitchells scoring goes down is real. Life will definitely be easier for Mitchell but in terms of fantasy it could go either way.

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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8 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

These guys aren't just shooters like Kyle Korver. Both of them, specifically Conley are real scorers and the chance that Mitchells scoring goes down is real. Life will definitely be easier for Mitchell but in terms of fantasy it could go either way.

We can agree to disagree that his fantasy value could go either way.  Bogs and conley are not high usage players. Even if Mitchell's scoring goes down a couple of points, the 9 cat value boost from increased efficiency and assists will more than offset a minimal scoring decrease.  

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54 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

^^ingles isn't being replaced, favors is the guy being replaced.  And Rubio who can't really shoot threes either.  Much better spacing for Mitchell to work with, which will help him in real life and in fantasy.  Don't see any downside here.  Fewer turnovers from trying to force things in a clogged paint, less iso and fewer forced shots to beat the shot clock, more assists to guys who can hit open shots.  

Age might be a factor with Ingles, but disregarding that do you think his value can stay the same or will he take a hit with a more capable true PG in Conley being there? Donovan taking the 3rd year leap forward may also dent Ingles value too. 

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30 minutes ago, Auction>Snake said:

Age might be a factor with Ingles, but disregarding that do you think his value can stay the same or will he take a hit with a more capable true PG in Conley being there? Donovan taking the 3rd year leap forward may also dent Ingles value too. 

and don't forget bojan is in utah now,he will also cut down ingles usage

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Just now, kane said:

and don't forget bojan is in utah now,he will also cut down ingles usage

Ingles is likely playing with the second unit, so much like LouWill, his usage could actually go up.

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Sleeper: Otto Porter.  Finished 27th the last two months.  I project his line to be around 17/6/2 with 2.5 threes, 1.5 steals, .5 blocks.  48/83/1.5 TO.  That's top 30 value.  I've done a few mocks and a few early leagues with buy-ins ranging from $100-200 and he has been picked anywhere from 37-53.  Even when he was getting dicked around he was top 40.  He should be picked in the 3rd round in 9 cat so 4th or 5th round is a steal.  His playoff schedule sucks, but he's relatively durable so that sort of negates that.  Easily should go 20 spots ahead of his ADP.   

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Sleeper: Otto Porter.  Finished 27th the last two months.  I project his line to be around 17/6/2 with 2.5 threes, 1.5 steals, .5 blocks.  48/83/1.5 TO.  That's top 30 value.  I've done a few mocks and a few early leagues with buy-ins ranging from $100-200 and he has been picked anywhere from 37-53.  Even when he was getting dicked around he was top 40.  He should be picked in the 3rd round in 9 cat so 4th or 5th round is a steal.  His playoff schedule sucks, but he's relatively durable so that sort of negates that.  Easily should go 20 spots ahead of his ADP.   

He was constantly injured last year, and hard to be more optimistic this year when Chicago will probably be in full tank mode by the h2h playoffs.  I do plan on targeting him as a sleeper in roto, though. 

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2 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

He was constantly injured last year, and hard to be more optimistic this year when Chicago will probably be in full tank mode by the h2h playoffs.  I do plan on targeting him as a sleeper in roto, though. 

 Constantly injured or rested bc his team was a joke and John Wall inexplicably blamed him for the problems?  Prior to the he played 77/80/75 and the injuries were neither chronic nor serious so I’ll say the latter. 

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 Constantly injured or rested bc his team was a joke and John Wall inexplicably blamed him for the problems?  Prior to the he played 77/80/75 and the injuries were neither chronic nor serious so I’ll say the latter. 

He was constantly injured last year lol. Grade 2 knee sprain, lower leg strain, re-occuring toe issue, a quad and shoulder issues. Chalk that shoulder one up to the Bulls resting him and he still had an injury riddled year.

Nobody called him injury prone, his past games played is irrelevant.

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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21 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

Mitchell finished #56 last season in 9 cats but you are expecting no improvements even though Utah brought in Bogs and Conley to help with spacing. Utah's improved spacing and shooting should dramatically boost Mitchell's efficiency and assist numbers.  I realistically expect a top 25-ish season from Donovan.

I definitely see an improved season from Conley being on the floor and totally agree. Not sure how that would help his assist numbers though with Conley being the primary ball handler. 

Edited by johnval1362

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5 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

He was constantly injured last year lol. Grade 2 knee sprain, lower leg strain, re-occuring toe issue, a quad and shoulder issues. Chalk that shoulder one up to the Bulls resting him and he still had an injury riddled year.

Nobody called him injury prone, his past games played is irrelevant.

You’re right, he was on the IR for various issues. My point was that he was rested despite injuries that he could have played through because of the situation he was in.  You stated yourself that past games played are irrelevant.  You shouldn’t downgrade him a round for injury concern if those injuries will have no bearing on the current year.

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8 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

You’re right, he was on the IR for various issues. My point was that he was rested despite injuries that he could have played through because of the situation he was in.  You stated yourself that past games played are irrelevant.  You shouldn’t downgrade him a round for injury concern if those injuries will have no bearing on the current year.

Past games played was irrelevant to the fact that he was constantly injured last year. Solid attempt at spining my words into something else.

I get it, we all have our guys were high on. 9 cat Otto is amazing But being rested near the end of H2H playoffs is a serious risk.

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On 8/22/2019 at 4:22 PM, GrandGourou said:

Otto pre-rank is 31 in Yahoo. His ADP is actually 35. Hard to call him a sleeper.

 

That’s because the people drafting on yahoo right now are likely doing mock drafts and following the preset ranks.  I’ve done three early money drafts on Fantrax where his ADP is 74, while I consider him to be a top 30 player.  If you can get a guy in the sixth round whose value is as a third round player...that’s sleeper type value.  Depends on how you classify a sleeper, many people seem to only consider players under 25 to be sleepers.  The reason why Otto is undervalued is due to injury concern, whether legitimate or not, and playoff schedule.  I can understand why the “sleeper” label wouldn’t apply in that context.   I believe he’s a player who is being undervalued though. 

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On 8/22/2019 at 11:43 PM, FantasyBallFan said:

Past games played was irrelevant to the fact that he was constantly injured last year. Solid attempt at spining my words into something else.

I get it, we all have our guys were high on. 9 cat Otto is amazing But being rested near the end of H2H playoffs is a serious risk.

 

There's a decent chance the Bulls could be in playoff contention this season. I see them and Atlanta as the two outsiders that can take the next step if things fall into place (mostly in regards to injuries for the bulls who seem a little fragile). If they stay healthy I think they'll be in the running for the 7th/8th seed with Nets, Heat, Pistons, Hawks (Top 6 of 76ers, Bucks, Celtics, Raptors, Pacers, Magic). The rest (Wizards - sorry @johnval1362, Knicks, Cavs, Hornets) are scrubs and destined for the Lottery Balls.

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What about Terry Rozier and Delon Wright as sleepers? I noticed they were very low at ESPN rankings.

Edited by apatas

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1 minute ago, apatas said:

What about Terry Rozier and Delon Wright as sleepers? I noticed they were very low at ESPN rankings.

Both point league god's, especially Terry. If Delon can improve his shooting he could wind up being one of the best sleepers this season. Doubtful that Terry will but his stocks will be off the charts.

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On 8/21/2019 at 7:57 PM, El_Chingon said:

Mitchell finished #56 last season in 9 cats but you are expecting no improvements even though Utah brought in Bogs and Conley to help with spacing. Utah's improved spacing and shooting should dramatically boost Mitchell's efficiency and assist numbers.  I realistically expect a top 25-ish season from Donovan.

If you look at it game by game, Mitchell was better when Rubio was hurt.  ie, Mitchell was better (fantasy wise) when he played PG.

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