dboong

2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

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I understood that if we mention sleepers we usually talk about redraft leagues. Because in dynasty leagues the most of new players are "sleepers" because they start to produce only after some seasons. When I talk about starting season then Simons is not among TOP200. Recent draft late round sleepers can be players like Malik Monk, Dwayne Bacon, Alex Len, Rui Hachimura, Josh Okogie etc.

Edited by apatas
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9 minutes ago, apatas said:

I understood that if we mention sleepers we usually talk about redraft leagues. Because in dynasty leagues the most of new players are "sleepers" because they start to produce only after some seasons. When I talk about starting season then Simons is not among TOP200. Recent draft late round sleepers can be players like Malik Monk, Dwayne Bacon, Alex Len, Rui Hachimura, Josh Okogie etc.

That’s my take as well. We’re talking about who are the viable sleepers for the leagues majority of people play in. It would look odd if you saw rw/yahoo articles telling you to go all in on guys who aren’t going to produce this year. The list would be far bigger if we started catering to dynasty leagues..

I like to see people mentioning Len, gives me hope for how far this board has come along, there used to be more conventional lists. He’s a good one and I’m not scared of Fernando, the Hawks will be in the mix for the 8th spot, the east is that bad.

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7 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

That’s my take as well. We’re talking about who are the viable sleepers for the leagues majority of people play in. It would look odd if you saw rw/yahoo articles telling you to go all in on guys who aren’t going to produce this year. The list would be far bigger if we started catering to dynasty leagues..

I like to see people mentioning Len, gives me hope for how far this board has come along, there used to be more conventional lists. He’s a good one and I’m not scared of Fernando, the Hawks will be in the mix for the 8th spot, the east is that bad.

I believe a member posting on this forum has the right to post what he, or she thinks constitutes a sleeper. Forget Dynasty. If Monk is a late round flier, Simons absolutely is as well. Monk's chances are slim at best to break into the young core of Bridges/Rozier & Bacon, sure the Hornets roster sucks compared with Blazers but he'd have to do a complete 180 from what we've seen in his awful previous season's.

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2 hours ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

I believe a member posting on this forum has the right to post what he, or she thinks constitutes a sleeper. Forget Dynasty. If Monk is a late round flier, Simons absolutely is as well. Monk's chances are slim at best to break into the young core of Bridges/Rozier & Bacon, sure the Hornets roster sucks compared with Blazers but he'd have to do a complete 180 from what we've seen in his awful previous season's.

Perfect 

Sleepers are not just from bad teams 

For example Troy Brown who can't score = sleeper just because he plays with the rebuilding Wizards

How many bad players have been considered sleepers just because they played in bad teams??

Bad players without much talent don't produce even if they play 30 minutes

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19 minutes ago, LosingEffort said:

Bad players without much talent don't produce even if they play 30 minutes

Let's assume H2H and let's assume you're punting/ignoring at least one category. Let's assume it's a 12 teamer with 13 players. 

With that in mind, there's only a handful of players who've play around 30 minutes a game over the past 10 years that aren't fantasy relevant.  Doug McDermott?  Tony Snell?  Even Robeson has been kinda relevant.

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28 minutes ago, LosingEffort said:

Perfect 

Sleepers are not just from bad teams 

For example Troy Brown who can't score = sleeper just because he plays with the rebuilding Wizards

How many bad players have been considered sleepers just because they played in bad teams??

Bad players without much talent don't produce even if they play 30 minutes

 

These are all strawmans. Keep reaching though. That's not even remotely what I talked about in my posts. Where did I say take any player on any bad team just if they get minutes and shots? Where did I say sleepers are only from bad teams? 

Edited by Lifschitz

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Maybe I mentioned some wrong sleepers (Monk?), but mostly question was about Simons, Now I looked to the BBM ranks and I ask where last season finished the best Portland guards not named Lillard and McCollum? Hood 180th (and he is SG/SF), Curry 278th, Turner 299th. That is also destiny of Simons in starting season. My prediction is that Bazemore can finish as high as Hood last season, others not in TOP 200.

Edited by apatas
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I would say De'Andre Hunter as a sleeper. He probably won't be a star, but his college stats reminded me of Otto Porter's.

2018-19 Hunter (College stats): 15.2ppg,5.1rpg,2.0apg,52.0%fg,78.3%ft,1.2threes,0.6spg,0.6bpg,1.4to

2018-19 Porter (#39 on BBM): 13.9ppg,5.6rpg,2.1apg,46.5%fg,81.3%ft,1.9threes,1.4spg,0.6bpg,1.2to

Hunter is obviously unlikely to have as good of stats in the NBA this year as college, but he should play a lot and (in my opinion) his play should translate better to fantasy than most people seem to think. He could easily be worth picking up with a late pick or off the waiver wire. 

Edited by tdye
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7 hours ago, LosingEffort said:

For me Simons is a sure all star in two years from now

He's a must have player in dinasty format 

I understand lot of people here prefer to pick up a young guy from a bad team but I don't see similar talents in that teams 

He has the kind of talent that always emerge even in playoff teams 

 

Not saying this won't happen but I (and many more as I remember) thought similarly drafting Anthony Randolph in dynasty 10 years ago and then couldn't let go for waaay too long as he occupied my roster.

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49 minutes ago, tdye said:

I would say De'Andre Hunter as a sleeper. He probably won't be a star, but his college stats reminded me of Otto Porter's.

2018-19 Hunter (College stats): 15.2ppg,5.1rpg,2.0apg,52.0%fg,78.3%ft,1.2threes,0.6spg,0.6bpg,1.4to

2018-19 Porter (#39 on BBM): 13.9ppg,5.6rpg,2.1apg,46.5%fg,81.3%ft,1.9threes,1.4spg,0.6bpg,1.2to

Hunter is obviously unlikely to have as good of stats in the NBA this year as college, but he should play a lot and (in my opinion) his play should translate better to fantasy than most people seem to think. He could easily be worth picking up with a late pick or off the waiver wire. 

 

The big question with Hunter will be his ability to get stocks. 

Steals are usually a good indicator when extrapolating college production and his steals are *really low* for his physical tools and defensive impact -

0.6spg in 32.5 min (he actually had .6 spg in 19.9 min the year before so not sure why its so low).

The only unknown is does it have something to do with Virginia's system and will be different in the NBA although that is unlikely.

He's also 4th at best on the pecking order offensively and should have a fairly low usage

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3 hours ago, apatas said:

Maybe I mentioned some wrong sleepers (Monk?), but mostly question was about Simons, Now I looked to the BBM ranks and I ask where last season finished the best Portland guards not named Lillard and McCollum? Hood 180th (and he is SG/SF), Curry 278th, Turner 299th. That is also destiny of Simons in starting season. My prediction is that Bazemore can finish as high as Hood last season, others not in TOP 200.

Yes but sometimes games also should be watched

We can't live just reading some stats 

If you see him playing you'll discover that Simons is 10 times more talented than Hood and Curry (Seth)

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20 minutes ago, LosingEffort said:

Yes but sometimes games also should be watched

We can't live just reading some stats 

If you see him playing you'll discover that Simons is 10 times more talented than Hood and Curry (Seth)

The biggest problem is not his level but minutes. Where he get these, if Simons is Lillard's (avg 35 min) backup?

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6 hours ago, LosingEffort said:

Perfect 

Sleepers are not just from bad teams 

For example Troy Brown who can't score = sleeper just because he plays with the rebuilding Wizards

How many bad players have been considered sleepers just because they played in bad teams??

Bad players without much talent don't produce even if they play 30 minutes

 

6 hours ago, Pyschout said:

Let's assume H2H and let's assume you're punting/ignoring at least one category. Let's assume it's a 12 teamer with 13 players. 

With that in mind, there's only a handful of players who've play around 30 minutes a game over the past 10 years that aren't fantasy relevant.  Doug McDermott?  Tony Snell?  Even Robeson has been kinda relevant.

 

Actually Troy Brown who can score, dribble, pass, rebound, and defend, is a sleeper because of his skills, first round talent, and opportunity on a bad wizards team.  Yes, bad teams = opportunity and playing time for lesser known / less talented players.  In fact they can be a treasure trove but don't mind me.  I'll gladly take a Shaq Harrison and let him ball out in 30 min / night on a bad team all day every day.  In fact I drafted him last year when he was on Phoenix for that exact reason, then he got cut because the Suns are a joke and got buried on the Bulls and I dropped him.  But anyway, his value is from steals and other stats.  He doesn't score much, but was super valuable to anyone who picked him up.  

 

Which leads to my next point.  Value from "sleepers" rarely comes purely from scoring - which is why high scoring players like Barnes and Wiggins are outside top 120.  Now look at Brown's stats - 4.8 ppg.  Ok sure you could look at that and say "he can't score".   But he also didn't play was also only playing like 6-10 min/night most of the year.  When he started getting playing time guess what?  He showed potential to fill up the stat sheet.  Nothing bonkers, but its there.  If he improves and has opportunity he could feasibly reach 10-12 ppg, 4-5 reb, 3.5 assists, 0.8-1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1 three.  Depending on your league size and format that may or may not be relevant.  But he's someone you can get with your last pick or off waivers.  Now with IT down, and only Ish Smith as the PG, what if they give Brown minutes at backup PG, or what if they let him handle the ball and facilitate more?  Or they get blown out a bunch and let him have free run in garbage minutes?  That's fantasy goodness right there!  

 

Edited by hipriest69
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12 hours ago, michael_scott said:

Not saying this won't happen but I (and many more as I remember) thought similarly drafting Anthony Randolph in dynasty 10 years ago and then couldn't let go for waaay too long as he occupied my roster.

 

Man that name ....he was the big hope for a group of us Warriors fans. Hell on RealGM we called him Baby Magic Jesus 😂

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12 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

 

Actually Troy Brown who can score, dribble, pass, rebound, and defend, is a sleeper because of his skills, first round talent, and opportunity on a bad wizards team.  Yes, bad teams = opportunity and playing time for lesser known / less talented players.  In fact they can be a treasure trove but don't mind me.  I'll gladly take a Shaq Harrison and let him ball out in 30 min / night on a bad team all day every day.  In fact I drafted him last year when he was on Phoenix for that exact reason, then he got cut because the Suns are a joke and got buried on the Bulls and I dropped him.  But anyway, his value is from steals and other stats.  He doesn't score much, but was super valuable to anyone who picked him up.  

 

Which leads to my next point.  Value from "sleepers" rarely comes purely from scoring - which is why high scoring players like Barnes and Wiggins are outside top 120.  Now look at Brown's stats - 4.8 ppg.  Ok sure you could look at that and say "he can't score".   But he also didn't play was also only playing like 6-10 min/night most of the year.  When he started getting playing time guess what?  He showed potential to fill up the stat sheet.  Nothing bonkers, but its there.  If he improves and has opportunity he could feasibly reach 10-12 ppg, 4-5 reb, 3.5 assists, 0.8-1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1 three.  Depending on your league size and format that may or may not be relevant.  But he's someone you can get with your last pick or off waivers.  Now with IT down, and only Ish Smith as the PG, what if they give Brown minutes at backup PG, or what if they let him handle the ball and facilitate more?  Or they get blown out a bunch and let him have free run in garbage minutes?  That's fantasy goodness right there!  

 

I told Brown can't score because he shoot 41,5% from the field in 10 games he started last season  (you should consider Wiggins that you criticized in this post had 41,3% from the field) and 31% from 3 point line which is the worst thing 

Maybe he can play 30 minutes per night this season but imo he has zero upside

Simons has a unique style of play, he'll start backing up both Lillard and McCollum so he'll see 20 minutes or so, but he has the talent to finish the season playing with them as a starter 

And if this doesn't happen Blazers could trade him, I read that almost every team in the NBA asked for Simons but for now they answer "not available"

 

Edited by LosingEffort

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"Simons has a unique style of play, he'll start backing up both Lillard and McCollum so he'll see 20 minutes or so, but he has the talent to finish the season playing with them as a starter "

 

Start Dame, CJ and Ant? Dude.

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1 hour ago, perkinsfor3 said:

"Simons has a unique style of play, he'll start backing up both Lillard and McCollum so he'll see 20 minutes or so, but he has the talent to finish the season playing with them as a starter "

 

Start Dame, CJ and Ant? Dude.

Yeah, that is a bold claim that Portland will start 3 guys 6'4" and under.

Also, I agree with a lot of what a-rob posted earlier (I am not quoting the post because it is long), but I have a few comments including:

Cha: In 12 team or deeper leagues Zeller could be worth drafting

Cle: Who is Gafford? Is this supposed to be Daniel Gafford on the Bulls?

OKC: I am guessing Gallo will be picked around 50-60 in most drafts, so he would have to be top-30 or 40 again and healthy to really outperform his ADP. He is more of a high-risk,high-reward pick like Embiid/PG13/Kawhi than a sleeper in my opinion.

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3 hours ago, tdye said:

Yeah, that is a bold claim that Portland will start 3 guys 6'4" and under.

Also, I agree with a lot of what a-rob posted earlier (I am not quoting the post because it is long), but I have a few comments including:

Cha: In 12 team or deeper leagues Zeller could be worth drafting

Cle: Who is Gafford? Is this supposed to be Daniel Gafford on the Bulls?

OKC: I am guessing Gallo will be picked around 50-60 in most drafts, so he would have to be top-30 or 40 again and healthy to really outperform his ADP. He is more of a high-risk,high-reward pick like Embiid/PG13/Kawhi than a sleeper in my opinion.

I agree in general.  I’d add that Zeller is worth far more than a flyer.  He finished the year top 90 and he has uncapped upside on a s--- team this year.  If his health serves him he could finish ahead of hyped players such as Bam, Bryant, etc.  If he gets injured per usual, it’s an easy drop. 

 

I agree about Gallinari.  I think this is the year he gets over 20 ppg/3 threes per game. Plus his typical 6+ boards, top 5 FT anchor, low TO.  No stocks, poor FG.  I think per game he will finish ahead of guys like Tobias Harris.  I picked him 73rd recently which is absurd.  If it’s roto 65 games of top 30 value is great at 73rd.  If it’s H2H there’s more risk but potentially even more reward.  If he misses 20 games during the season but plays during the fantasy playoffs at top 30 value then you got a top 30 guy.  Games missed outside the playoffs don’t matter if you made the playoffs anyway. 

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12 hours ago, a-rob said:

Per team sleeper/bust predictions. by sleeper meaning will perform better ADP and vice versa for bust

Atl - Sleeper: Huerter. Bust Collins, Trae Young. I like both guys but many will be reaching for them.

Bkn - Sleeper: Levert- make all star team. Bust: J. Allen- will split mins with Jordan lucky to get 26mpg.

Bos - Sleeper: Robert Williams, will be useful in 15mpg. Gordon Hayward. Bust: Tatum

Cha - Sleeper: Miles Bridges. Bust: No one other than Miles and Rozier worth drafting in this team, so hard to predict a bust.

Chi - Sleeper: WCJ, Otto Porter. Bust: Coby White

Cle - Sleeper: Gafford. Bust: Kevin Love- will be traded too.

Dal - Sleeper: Wright or Brunson. Bust: Luka. No idea why people are picking him so high. He is good but not worth a high ADP.

Den - Sleeper: Gary Harris. Bust: Murray

Det - Sleeper: Kennard. Bust: Blake- struggles with injuries.

Gsw - Sleeper: Draymond, will return top 20 value for a player being picked in round 4. Bust: DLo

Hou - Sleeper: None Bust: none. Everyone will perform as expected

Ind - Sleeper: TJ warren. Bust: Sabonis

LAC - Sleeper: Shamet. Bust: Kawhi PG13. Not worth round 1 or early round 2 picks because they will be missing several games

LAL - Sleeper: None. Bust: Kuzma- his game isn't fantasy friendly

Mia - Sleeper: DJJ. Bust: None

Mem- Sleeper: JJJ. Bust: Morant

Mil - Sleeper: Wes Matthews. Bust: None. 

Min - Sleeper: Okogie. Bust: None (because Wiggins is no longer new to this category)

NOP - Sleeper: Lonzo. Bust: Zion.

NYK - Sleeper: DSJ. Bust: Mitch Rob (struggles with foul trouble)

OKC - Sleeper: Galo. Bust: None

Phi - Sleeper: Horford. Embiid will have many DNPs. Bust: Tobias

Pho - Sleeper: Bridges, Rubio. Bust: None

Por - Sleeper: Zach Collins. Bust: Whiteside

Sac - Sleeper: Giles. Bust: None

SAS - Sleeper: None. Bust: murray

Tor - Sleeper: Powell. Bust: Siakam, will not have any improvements even without Kawhi

Uta - None

Was - Sleeper: Hachimura, Troy Brown. Bust: None

I agree here very much, but what I don't agree by any means: Hayward and Lonzo as sleepers. I don't know where Gary Harris usually drafted but if at the end of TOP100, then he also is not a sleeper. About Kuzma I think people mostly pick him where he belongs and he is not a bust. Some sleepers like WCJ or JJJ are obvious but I also like Draymond, Rubio and Okogie predictions.

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13 hours ago, LosingEffort said:

I told Brown can't score because he shoot 41,5% from the field in 10 games he started last season  (you should consider Wiggins that you criticized in this post had 41,3% from the field) and 31% from 3 point line which is the worst thing 

Maybe he can play 30 minutes per night this season but imo he has zero upside

Simons has a unique style of play, he'll start backing up both Lillard and McCollum so he'll see 20 minutes or so, but he has the talent to finish the season playing with them as a starter 

And if this doesn't happen Blazers could trade him, I read that almost every team in the NBA asked for Simons but for now they answer "not available"

 

 

Sure but Wiggins has been in the league for how many years now?  Which gives us a ridiculously large sample size, whereas Brown was a rookie who barely played, thus the sample size you mentioned of 10 games of starting.  What makes more sense to draw conclusions, 10 games or 5 years?      

 

I wouldn't say Brown has ZERO upside, but I'll agree Simons has a much larger upside, obviously, of course.  However, his minutes are limited.  They aren't trading him, they're not trading CJ or Dame anytime soon, at least not this year.  He might get 20 minutes but its no lock.  He probably won't start with them but 3 guard lineups are possible for shorter stretches, and there are backup minutes available.  As far as draft position and value, Simons should go higher than Brown, and he has more value than him.  But in no way does that affect or impact Brown's situation or status.  

 

Let me add on another possible factor as potential big minutes - if Beal gets traded and not much comes back in return...I don't think it happens, but its a possibility.  

 

As much as I like Simons I would probably take 34 minutes of Brown versus 20 minutes of Simons.  Just as I would take 32 minutes of DJ Augustin versus 20 min from Markelle Fultz, who is obviously more talented...

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8 hours ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

Basketball Monster projects 23 minutes per game for Simons.

 

I posted on his thread that he can basically be James Harden in Oklahoma.  Limited to under 30 minutes, the usual late round guard stats of about 12-14 points, 3-4 reb / assists, 1 steal, 1.5-2 threes 

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On 9/21/2019 at 12:10 AM, a-rob said:

Per team sleeper/bust predictions. by sleeper meaning will perform better ADP and vice versa for bust

Atl - Sleeper: Huerter. Bust Collins, Trae Young. I like both guys but many will be reaching for them.

Bkn - Sleeper: Levert- make all star team. Bust: J. Allen- will split mins with Jordan lucky to get 26mpg.

Bos - Sleeper: Robert Williams, will be useful in 15mpg. Gordon Hayward. Bust: Tatum

Cha - Sleeper: Miles Bridges. Bust: No one other than Miles and Rozier worth drafting in this team, so hard to predict a bust.

Chi - Sleeper: WCJ, Otto Porter. Bust: Coby White

Cle - Sleeper: Gafford. Bust: Kevin Love- will be traded too.

Dal - Sleeper: Wright or Brunson. Bust: Luka. No idea why people are picking him so high. He is good but not worth a high ADP.

Den - Sleeper: Gary Harris. Bust: Murray

Det - Sleeper: Kennard. Bust: Blake- struggles with injuries.

Gsw - Sleeper: Draymond, will return top 20 value for a player being picked in round 4. Bust: DLo

Hou - Sleeper: None Bust: none. Everyone will perform as expected

Ind - Sleeper: TJ warren. Bust: Sabonis

LAC - Sleeper: Shamet. Bust: Kawhi PG13. Not worth round 1 or early round 2 picks because they will be missing several games

LAL - Sleeper: None. Bust: Kuzma- his game isn't fantasy friendly

Mia - Sleeper: DJJ. Bust: None

Mem- Sleeper: JJJ. Bust: Morant

Mil - Sleeper: Wes Matthews. Bust: None. 

Min - Sleeper: Okogie. Bust: None (because Wiggins is no longer new to this category)

NOP - Sleeper: Lonzo. Bust: Zion.

NYK - Sleeper: DSJ. Bust: Mitch Rob (struggles with foul trouble)

OKC - Sleeper: Galo. Bust: None

Phi - Sleeper: Horford. Embiid will have many DNPs. Bust: Tobias

Pho - Sleeper: Bridges, Rubio. Bust: None

Por - Sleeper: Zach Collins. Bust: Whiteside

Sac - Sleeper: Giles. Bust: None

SAS - Sleeper: None. Bust: murray

Tor - Sleeper: Powell. Bust: Siakam, will not have any improvements even without Kawhi

Uta - None

Was - Sleeper: Hachimura, Troy Brown. Bust: None

Hilarious but appreciate giving us something to think about and pick apart while waiting for the season. I wonder if Yahoo will even have PRO leagues this year. Quick take' Collins, Trae, Saikam OK but no extra ADP value, Sabonis, Morant & Jamal Murray will be OK for their ADP, Draymond OK, Tobias is still solid for 4th~5th round (9 CAT h2h, 12 team), Wes Matthews, DSJ, Lonzo, Luka FG%/FT%???, Millsap = Bust.

Edited by apacheblues

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12 minutes ago, apacheblues said:

Hilarious but appreciate giving us something to think about and pick apart while waiting for the season. I wonder if Yahoo will even have PRO leagues this year. Quick take' Collins, Trae, Saikam OK but no extra ADP value, Sabonis, Morant & Jamal Murray will be OK for their ADP, Draymond OK, Tobias is still solid for 4th~5th round (9 CAT h2h, 12 team), Wes Matthews, DSJ, Lonzo, Luka FG%/FT%???, Millsap = Bust.

DSJ's efficiency was horrific (41/56 last 2 months) last year and really hurt...

The new is that he completely re-built his shot this summer with one of the assistant coaches on the team (Keith Smart). Although a recent view doesn't look promising. 

Not sure it'll pan out but with a late pick I'm willing to roll the dice. That team needs scoring and playmaking and he can also contribute in stocks. 

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