dboong

2019-20 Sleepers and and Busts

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On 9/4/2019 at 8:44 AM, freddo said:

An old favourite sleeper.

Thon Maker

Buried behind Drummond and Griffin but with Drummond's expiring contract and Griffin never seeming overly happy in Detroit it seems like sooner or later we will see more Thon. Still only 22 years old, declined to play in world cup so he could work on his game, Pistons seem like they legitimately believe in him and he has a great team around him. One to watch in my book.

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Having to confirm only two out of three, in a dinasty league with reconfirmations who would you choose between Okogie - Dillon Brooks and Troy Brown jr?

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On 9/21/2019 at 12:10 AM, a-rob said:

Per team sleeper/bust predictions. by sleeper meaning will perform better ADP and vice versa for bust

Atl - Sleeper: Huerter. Bust Collins, Trae Young. I like both guys but many will be reaching for them.

Bkn - Sleeper: Levert- make all star team. Bust: J. Allen- will split mins with Jordan lucky to get 26mpg.

Bos - Sleeper: Robert Williams, will be useful in 15mpg. Gordon Hayward. Bust: Tatum

Cha - Sleeper: Miles Bridges. Bust: No one other than Miles and Rozier worth drafting in this team, so hard to predict a bust.

Chi - Sleeper: WCJ, Otto Porter. Bust: Coby White

Cle - Sleeper: Gafford. Bust: Kevin Love- will be traded too.

Dal - Sleeper: Wright or Brunson. Bust: Luka. No idea why people are picking him so high. He is good but not worth a high ADP.

Den - Sleeper: Gary Harris. Bust: Murray

Det - Sleeper: Kennard. Bust: Blake- struggles with injuries.

Gsw - Sleeper: Draymond, will return top 20 value for a player being picked in round 4. Bust: DLo

Hou - Sleeper: None Bust: none. Everyone will perform as expected

Ind - Sleeper: TJ warren. Bust: Sabonis

LAC - Sleeper: Shamet. Bust: Kawhi PG13. Not worth round 1 or early round 2 picks because they will be missing several games

LAL - Sleeper: None. Bust: Kuzma- his game isn't fantasy friendly

Mia - Sleeper: DJJ. Bust: None

Mem- Sleeper: JJJ. Bust: Morant

Mil - Sleeper: Wes Matthews. Bust: None. 

Min - Sleeper: Okogie. Bust: None (because Wiggins is no longer new to this category)

NOP - Sleeper: Lonzo. Bust: Zion.

NYK - Sleeper: DSJ. Bust: Mitch Rob (struggles with foul trouble)

OKC - Sleeper: Galo. Bust: None

Phi - Sleeper: Horford. Embiid will have many DNPs. Bust: Tobias

Pho - Sleeper: Bridges, Rubio. Bust: None

Por - Sleeper: Zach Collins. Bust: Whiteside

Sac - Sleeper: Giles. Bust: None

SAS - Sleeper: None. Bust: murray

Tor - Sleeper: Powell. Bust: Siakam, will not have any improvements even without Kawhi

Uta - None

Was - Sleeper: Hachimura, Troy Brown. Bust: None

The MIP in the nba won’t improve at all? Watchu talking about Willis 

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Its hype and I'm saying that as a Pascal owner in a dynasty league.  I picked him off the waiver wire at the very beginning of last season.  If you got him like that he is pure platinum.  But taking him in the 2nd and 3rd is fools gold. 

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6 hours ago, a-rob said:

 

Siakam will be good, but just because he lost Kawhi doesn't mean he is going to see a huge jump in numbers. Some people are taking Pascal in round 2, that's crazy! That's why I feel he will disappoint because his ADP is too high. How do you see Pascal improvement? Because the way I see it, Pascal will up his points, and not much else. His stocks just average. So why are people taking him mid round 2 to late round 3? It's hype

His ADP is round 3.5-4 not round 2.. and he’s young / showed he can vastly improve yearly how can you know what jump he can make? He’s going to be the #1 option on a solid team , can pass, stocks and shoot.  He went 17/7/3 with almost 1 steal and block and a triple ... anybody who would take guys ahead on “rankings” like Zion, Collins, Mitchell Robinson , Ayton would be making a mistake . His shot is improving rapidly and he started basketball super late so he’s still peaking .. 

22/8/4 with 1 steal , block and trey a game sign me up round 3 all day ... and he’s shown to stay healthy which is key/ playoff contention team to always play 

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5 hours ago, Rainsford said:

Its hype and I'm saying that as a Pascal owner in a dynasty league.  I picked him off the waiver wire at the very beginning of last season.  If you got him like that he is pure platinum.  But taking him in the 2nd and 3rd is fools gold. 

2nd best player for a finals run , first season starting. Time will tell. Anybody who watches raptors games will get a steal in round 3-4... round 2 is a reach 

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I really don't like that Yahoo! pushed up sleepers this year so much, you're paying for a lot of guys at their absolute value instead of getting bargains. They're doing the work for lazy people who aren't researching. 

I've done about 15 mocks and there is just such little value to be gained on almost all picks, there's a few in the 8th- 10th, that's about it.

Just look at some of these:

Adebayo in the 5th - 6th

Thomas Bryant in the 5th - 6th

Jaren Jackson is a 3rd rounder

Isaac is way too highly priced at 59th

Miles Bridges 73

You can understand SGA, Bagley, and Wendell Carter in that 80 range, those are understandable and at least there is some ceiling for value.. but what value is there in me picking Bridges at 70? Absolute best case scenario I'm hoping he averages a nice season year of around 14/5/2/1+/1 and 1.5+ 3's on a very bad team, I'm buying him at around his round ceiling maybe a bit higher, that just doesn't make any sense to me.

I let CPU autodraft for me twice with no pre rankings and both times I got an A by just having it take the next best ranked player, that never used to be the case in the past when I let it run a few mocks (or rarely). My concern is that I'll have guys in my league who won't do as much research and just say hey let me take this guy and it'll just fall into their lap as a bi-product of the projected rankings system. As good as those Centers are I listed, let us at least have them at some value 2 rounds later instead of buying them at close to their ceiling. 

I feel this year what they've actually done is inverse, by virtue of bumping up all these unproven guys, they've actually made several players extremely underrated and bargain picks (Lowry, Horford, Marc Gasol, Josh Richardson to some extent, Oubre, Jeremy Lamb, Gary Harris to some extent, Caris LeVert). Lowry is just a crazy bargain pick right now, he was still at a very respectable 14+/8 assists, a ton of 3's and steals and high FT%, you're getting him in the 5th round and he could easily outplay his ADP and return mid 2nd round value as he's done most his career in Toronto. 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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On 9/20/2019 at 9:32 PM, hipriest69 said:

 

 

Actually Troy Brown who can score, dribble, pass, rebound, and defend, is a sleeper because of his skills, first round talent, and opportunity on a bad wizards team.  Yes, bad teams = opportunity and playing time for lesser known / less talented players.  In fact they can be a treasure trove but don't mind me.  I'll gladly take a Shaq Harrison and let him ball out in 30 min / night on a bad team all day every day.  In fact I drafted him last year when he was on Phoenix for that exact reason, then he got cut because the Suns are a joke and got buried on the Bulls and I dropped him.  But anyway, his value is from steals and other stats.  He doesn't score much, but was super valuable to anyone who picked him up.  

 

Which leads to my next point.  Value from "sleepers" rarely comes purely from scoring - which is why high scoring players like Barnes and Wiggins are outside top 120.  Now look at Brown's stats - 4.8 ppg.  Ok sure you could look at that and say "he can't score".   But he also didn't play was also only playing like 6-10 min/night most of the year.  When he started getting playing time guess what?  He showed potential to fill up the stat sheet.  Nothing bonkers, but its there.  If he improves and has opportunity he could feasibly reach 10-12 ppg, 4-5 reb, 3.5 assists, 0.8-1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1 three.  Depending on your league size and format that may or may not be relevant.  But he's someone you can get with your last pick or off waivers.  Now with IT down, and only Ish Smith as the PG, what if they give Brown minutes at backup PG, or what if they let him handle the ball and facilitate more?  Or they get blown out a bunch and let him have free run in garbage minutes?  That's fantasy goodness right there!  

 

 

After this post Troy Brown jr went down with a strain so Anfernee is the undisputed last sleeper standing 🤣

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28 minutes ago, LosingEffort said:

 

After this post Troy Brown jr went down with a strain so Anfernee is the undisputed last sleeper standing 🤣

Brown should be back soon enough and still be the favourite to start. Speaking of dynasty sleepers - Lonnie Walker anyone? He outperformed Simons in SL fantasywise. As Gobert owner in dynasty I'm also very much intrigued by a guy named Tony Bradley - any ideas about this guy?

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1 minute ago, michael_scott said:

Brown should be back soon enough and still be the favourite to start. Speaking of dynasty sleepers - Lonnie Walker anyone? He outperformed Simons in SL fantasywise. As Gobert owner in dynasty I'm also very much intrigued by a guy named Tony Bradley - any ideas about this guy?

Another Washington player to throw out there as a sleeper - Isaac Bonga.  The team isn't winning squat so i expect he'll get minutes.

Lonnie Walker is nice, but he's stuck behind Derozan who usually plays a ton of minutes and is typically quite durable. As for Tony Brandley - I think Ed Davis might be the big man sleeper play in Utah.  I swear Davis has been underrated his entire career.

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Spurs as a team should be considered sleepers. 😛

Every year people dismiss them and every year they make playoffs.They have potential star in the making (Murray),  young players with nice upside (Walker, Poeltl, White, Samanic, Johnson), solid veterans and great coaching stuff.

Lonnie Walker is also the future in SA and better than Forbes, Mills and Marco. Walker should get minutes at SG/SF and should be able to get  around 18 min/game, which should make him attractive  in deep leagues.  

Another sleeper in deep leagues in Jakob Poeltl.  Should get around 20 min per game, enough for 1 block per game. And with Tim as full time assistant coach improvement from SA bigs is very likely

 

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13 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Spurs as a team should be considered sleepers. 😛

Every year people dismiss them and every year they make playoffs.They have potential star in the making (Murray),  young players with nice upside (Walker, Poeltl, White, Samanic, Johnson), solid veterans and great coaching stuff.

Lonnie Walker is also the future in SA and better than Forbes, Mills and Marco. Walker should get minutes at SG/SF and should be able to get  around 18 min/game, which should make him attractive  in deep leagues.  

Another sleeper in deep leagues in Jakob Poeltl.  Should get around 20 min per game, enough for 1 block per game. And with Tim as full time assistant coach improvement from SA bigs is very likely

 

I'll target DJ Murray 

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2 hours ago, Tremolay said:

Bacon! I don't know why he's not getting enough hype. Great pick in a 12-14 team league.

Because aside from scoring he does nothing?

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12 hours ago, michael_scott said:

Brown should be back soon enough and still be the favourite to start. Speaking of dynasty sleepers - Lonnie Walker anyone? He outperformed Simons in SL fantasywise. As Gobert owner in dynasty I'm also very much intrigued by a guy named Tony Bradley - any ideas about this guy?

 

12 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

Another Washington player to throw out there as a sleeper - Isaac Bonga.  The team isn't winning squat so i expect he'll get minutes.

Lonnie Walker is nice, but he's stuck behind Derozan who usually plays a ton of minutes and is typically quite durable. As for Tony Brandley - I think Ed Davis might be the big man sleeper play in Utah.  I swear Davis has been underrated his entire career.

 

Walker is buried and would be more of a stash in dynasty, with not really expecting much from him this year barring injuries.  I agree on Ed Davis, he's one of the best rebounders in the entire league, great for super deep leagues.  

 

39 minutes ago, Gorgeous George said:

Because aside from scoring he does nothing?

 

I think the hope for Bacon is that with expected improvement + regular consistent playing time he can add more elements to his game.  He hasn't shown it yet, but its a small sample size.  I could see him theoretically adding 1 steal and 1 three / game and a couple rebounds and assists.  All he would really need to do would be to get 3-4 rebounds and 2.5-3 assists to not be completely terrible and not unlike many other late round guards.  Add that to 15+ points or so and he has a chance to outplay his last round ADP.  He has a chance for really big minutes and some garbage time 20 point barrage blowout specials...those games tend to be sloppy too so he could accumulate some other counting stats lol.  

Edited by hipriest69

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Was listening to one of the podcasts today and they mentioned Saric.  They traded for him to play the 4, Monty was an assistant in Philly when Saric was there.  I'm not totally in as I can see small ball Oubre playing minutes over him so they can squeeze him in with Booker and Bridges in the same lineup...but not a bad pick for your last pick. 

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38 minutes ago, a-rob said:

 

Spurs are a great organization but they have really struggled developing their picks or young guns with the exception of Kawhi Leonard. Murray was on a good path but then tore his ACL. Pops loves and trusts his veterans like Patty Mills. I don't see how Lonnie Walker will get minutes this year to be productive with White, Murray, Derozan, Mills, Belli all playing ahead of him.

As for Poeltl, nothing special. Too slow and a liability in today's game

White and Murray (with possible minute cap) will get the majority of their minutes at pg and DeRozan at sf. Walker should be ahead of Belinelli and fight for minutes mainly with Mills and Forbes. Spurs don't play their rookies but tend to expand their role after first season (e.g. Murray, White, Anderson) but I agree, that he's mainly a dynasty target for now.

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4 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

Because aside from scoring he does nothing?

 

Got a great name too though

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17 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

Was listening to one of the podcasts today and they mentioned Saric.  They traded for him to play the 4, Monty was an assistant in Philly when Saric was there.  I'm not totally in as I can see small ball Oubre playing minutes over him so they can squeeze him in with Booker and Bridges in the same lineup...but not a bad pick for your last pick. 

Love Saric in PHX

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3 hours ago, LosingEffort said:

I don't love Ayton asked to play PF

I highly doubt that’ll happen.. but if it did that’s terrible for Saric lol ... saric a perfect stretch 4 for that offense 

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This Ayton is asked to play PF stuff is bollocks. In today’s league the suns would get punished hard trying to run that for long stretches, it may have its uses here and there but the sheer amount of fast break and three point points you’ll be giving up just so you can have size doesn’t work. This isn’t 2001, teams get run off the court trying to pull that. 

He’ll get most of his minutes at Center, the guy is huge.

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