Sign in to follow this  
Savatage79

Where do you value the elite TEs?

Recommended Posts

In the grand scheme of things, where do you place the value this year in the top 3 big tight ends? 

I have always touted the value as I think it's easier to land a ww rb1 or wr1 in a season than it is to do with a tight end, and I find streaming tight ends to be tiresome. But on the flip side if you can land one of the tier 2 or 3 players, it's serviceable. 

This year I'm torn on it, I like the players you can get in that area alot. So which route do you guys prefer, land one of the elites or make due later in the draft? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

In the grand scheme of things, where do you place the value this year in the top 3 big tight ends?

 

giphy.gif

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If im picking in the first 4 picks Im fine taking eertz in the second round if i can snag thielen in the 3rd esp in ppr. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My question centers around league size. Would you be more willing to invest a higher round pick on them in an 8 team league as opposed to a 12+ league? Or should league size not matter?

Edited by jsch08

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm trying to leave my drafts with a elite TE or a possible elite TE (Howard, Henry, Engram). Howard with all those targets gone could take a big leap, Engram with OBJ gone has put up good numbers in the 15 games he's played without OBJ and Henry has targets gone in LAC as well as possible more with the Gordon situation. Rivers threw his lowest number of passes last year since 2009 and the Chargers were 12-4 and trailed for the least amount of time of any team in the NFL. If somehow I miss the top 6 giphy.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, turner46 said:

I'm trying to leave my drafts with a elite TE or a possible elite TE (Howard, Henry, Engram). Howard with all those targets gone could take a big leap, Engram with OBJ gone has put up good numbers in the 15 games he's played without OBJ and Henry has targets gone in LAC as well as possible more with the Gordon situation. Rivers threw his lowest number of passes last year since 2009 and the Chargers were 12-4 and trailed for the least amount of time of any team in the NFL. If somehow I miss the top 6 giphy.gif

 

Losing Derwin James is a bump to the Chargers offense. Make no mistake. I'd expect he makes a 1 - 2 real life PPG difference as a top-5 safety.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will always pay for an elite player at whatever position. Couple years back it was people taking QB's early(Rodgers) to get a leg up on other bad ones, now i think it is TE's. Im the same way, i can find a good WR or RB in the WW but finding a good TE is usually difficult. I drafted kittle in the 2nd round of a 10 team (someone took kelce already) because I was not going to throw a dart at all these potential TE's. If you do your research you can reach for players(people call them "my guys" now), and still have an amazing team.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see it as Kelce in a tier by himself then Kittle and Ertz. Ertz is fantastic but they have added weapons so he isn't the only show in town. I don't feel like getting teased this year thinking it was Ertz making the catch but actually it was Goedert. Goedert is gonna get more play this year. Ertz will still be very good. I love Kittle but I'll need to see it another year to put him in Kelce range. Kelce is just so safe being on a great offense with a great QB etc. I'd put Engram in the next tier by himself.

The common denominator of these top 4 TE's is they have a chance to lead their teams in targets. I like OJ howard but no way he leads his team in targets. Jordan Reed could lead his teams in targets and he's going for free in drafts.

If a team doesn't have one of these stud TE's the trend is to decrease TE targets and give more to the RB position. I've concluded that it's probably worth it to spend up and get one of these guy's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

So which route do you guys prefer, land one of the elites or make due later in the draft? 

I often see other people overpay (by my thinking anyway) for the top three, so I automatically go to the next level. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I often see other people overpay (by my thinking anyway) for the top three, so I automatically go to the next level. 

What do you feel is doable tho? The first turn? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Kelce 1st round

Kittle 3rd round

Ertz 4th round

Ok Howard 5th round

 

This is basically how I’d rank them; although I wouldn’t be opposed to Kittle in the late 2nd & I’d add Engram in the 5th as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

What do you feel is doable tho? The first turn? 

In a 40-team league, maybe ;)

One of the guys I like is Engram. That should tell you a bit where I start looking - I first want to have at least 3-4 stud RB/WRs.

Having said that, I still haven't been able to create a good (math) model for these kinds of questions, so this is still a gut call, based on mocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

In a 40-team league, maybe ;)

One of the guys I like is Engram. That should tell you a bit where I start looking - I first want to have at least 3-4 stud RB/WRs.

Having said that, I still haven't been able to create a good (math) model for these kinds of questions, so this is still a gut call, based on mocks.

See I don't have much love for engram, I mean the way people bust Elis balls and that offense outside of Barkley I just don't trust engram. For me I've had some of my most crushing teams have been when I had gronk or kelce on top of a great lineup. 

I have Connor already, and I'm just tryin to debate it is all. Just found out I had the turn in a 10 man, so im eyeballing hill/Thomas, kelce/Thomas, hill/Thomas as my opening.. So just tryin to get a feel of where others are feeling kelce. 

I mean I know he won't hurt my team obviously, but I'm torn if I want to try and wait it out for maybe ertz, Howard, cook etc.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I have Connor already, and I'm just tryin to debate it is all.

Ah, I missed that. If you are in a keeper league, then your 2nd round is pretty much a 3rd round, and then picking Kelce around the turn makes a lot more sense to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My strategy is to always to take the best player on the board, don’t care about position.  I have the 5th pick, there’s no way I’m getting Kelce with the 15th pick.  I would take him but he won’t be there.  I’m sure Kittle will be there but there’s too many backs and receivers that are valuable.   I probably would take Ertz at 25, but it still depends on who else is there.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My feeling is aside from the top 3-4, none of them are going to be players you can bank on to put up major points each week, so then its a total crapshoot. Whenever I go for one of them in mocks I don't like my team at the end. So unless one strangely falls to me in the third or fourth round I'm going with the random jobbers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Dead Money said:

My feeling is aside from the top 3-4, none of them are going to be players you can bank on to put up major points each week, so then its a total crapshoot. Whenever I go for one of them in mocks I don't like my team at the end. So unless one strangely falls to me in the third or fourth round I'm going with the random jobbers!

Dude guys like Thomas, hill, chubb, Julio, kelce... Imho are not crap shoots lol they aren't top 5 but they are definitely not just crap shoots. They all can put up steady to monster weeks 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Dude guys like Thomas, hill, chubb, Julio, kelce... Imho are not crap shoots lol they aren't top 5 but they are definitely not just crap shoots. They all can put up steady to monster weeks 

Any chance you'd be able to provide a bit more detail on your league format? Specifically how many keepers each team gets, what the keeper costs are, and who you expect to be kept/off the board before the draft. This definitely will have a huge impact on your draft strategy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Dead Money said:

I was saying after the top 3-4 Tight ends. As in I'd rather have the guys you just mentioned

Gotcha man my mad, sorry at work and just scanning as we go. I forgot which thread I was in lol

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

Any chance you'd be able to provide a bit more detail on your league format? Specifically how many keepers each team gets, what the keeper costs are, and who you expect to be kept/off the board before the draft. This definitely will have a huge impact on your draft strategy.


I'm just going to make some assumptions based on what I can see in this thread so far.

Assumptions: 10-team league, every gets to keep one guy. You're keeping Conner. Based on some of the guys you've mentioned, you're expecting Chubb, Julio, Thomas, Hill, Kelce, etc. to be available. So I'm going to assume the following guys are being kept:

Barkley, Kamara, CMC, Zeke, DJ, Nuk, Adams, Bell, Conner, OBJ.

So that means this is what's going to be available in the draft. Also assuming you have picks #10, #11, #30, #31, etc.

1. Chubb
2. Julio
3. Thomas
4. Gurley
5. Mixon
6. Hill
7. Kelce
8. JuJu
9. D. Cook
10. Evans
11. AB

12. Mahomes
13. K. Allen
14. Thielen
15. Fournette
16. D. Williams
17. M. Gordon
18. Kerryon
19. A. Jones
20. Hilton
21. Kittle
22. Ertz
23. Mack
24. D. Freeman
25. Cooper
26. Diggs
27. Jacobs
28. Carson
29. B. Cooks
30. Woods
31. Montgomery

32. D. Henry
33. Edelman
34. Ingram
35. Golladay

Based on this, I'd try to get Kelce with pick #10/#11 if available. Really, there isn't going to be anyone else available in that area that I think is a must own over him. If you can't get Kelce here, wait until #30/#31 to get Ertz or Kittle. If they're gone before by those picks, then no worries. Wait until later in the draft to get your TE. After the first 3, I think you can pretty much wait as long as you want because there are quite a few decent TEs that have the potential to be serviceable fantasy TEs.

If my assumptions are really wrong, then that's definitely going to alter my opinion. But this is what I have for an opinion based on the information available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:


I'm just going to make some assumptions based on what I can see in this thread so far.

Assumptions: 10-team league, every gets to keep one guy. You're keeping Conner. Based on some of the guys you've mentioned, you're expecting Chubb, Julio, Thomas, Hill, Kelce, etc. to be available. So I'm going to assume the following guys are being kept:

Barkley, Kamara, CMC, Zeke, DJ, Nuk, Adams, Bell, Conner, OBJ.

So that means this is what's going to be available in the draft. Also assuming you have picks #10, #11, #30, #31, etc.

1. Chubb
2. Julio
3. Thomas
4. Gurley
5. Mixon
6. Hill
7. Kelce
8. JuJu
9. D. Cook
10. Evans
11. AB

12. Mahomes
13. K. Allen
14. Thielen
15. Fournette
16. D. Williams
17. M. Gordon
18. Kerryon
19. A. Jones
20. Hilton
21. Kittle
22. Ertz
23. Mack
24. D. Freeman
25. Cooper
26. Diggs
27. Jacobs
28. Carson
29. B. Cooks
30. Woods
31. Montgomery

32. D. Henry
33. Edelman
34. Ingram
35. Golladay

Based on this, I'd try to get Kelce with pick #10/#11 if available. Really, there isn't going to be anyone else available in that area that I think is a must own over him. If you can't get Kelce here, wait until #30/#31 to get Ertz or Kittle. If they're gone before by those picks, then no worries. Wait until later in the draft to get your TE. After the first 3, I think you can pretty much wait as long as you want because there are quite a few decent TEs that have the potential to be serviceable fantasy TEs.

If my assumptions are really wrong, then that's definitely going to alter my opinion. But this is what I have for an opinion based on the information available.

No basically its a keeper lite, it's simply tryin to land a good keeper the prior year rounds 5-10, everyone was still banking on bell and I took conner for my 10th pick last year which allowed him to be a keeper option. Which going into last year was a good grab. But you can only keep one from those rounds. 

The other players got a few decent pickups like kerryon, Carson etc.. 

Big guns like Julio, hill, Thomas, kelce etc... Should still be there at the wrap as like normal your regular huge rbs are gonna be going first. 

So that's what I'm looking at. 

Edited by Savatage79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.