MysticPeak

Luka Doncic 2019-2020 Outlook

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15 minutes ago, a-rob said:

If he cannot turn his FT% around, guys picking him in round 2 even early round 3 will be really sorry

Not unless they are punting ft and tos. In those settings last year Luka was mid third round value.  Any small increase in counting stats of efficiency cats should allow him to finish top 25

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I'm very concerned about picking him in the first three rounds with that FT in my build. It only makes sense if you have a heavy FT maker to balance him out, but for the rest of the draft it puts you in this weird place where you have to pigeon hole higher FT% shooters just to make up for him, and only so many big men fit that bill. I'm just not willing to gamble my first 3 rounds on a guy with efficiency issues in both efficiency cats, I'm willing to take an FG% dip because bigs will make up for it, but my guards shooting such heavy attempts and hitting 70-71 is pretty brutal.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

I'm very concerned about picking him in the first three rounds with that FT in my build. It only makes sense if you have a heavy FT maker to balance him out, but for the rest of the draft it puts you in this weird place where you have to pigeon hole higher FT% shooters just to make up for him, and only so many big men fit that bill. I'm just not willing to gamble my first 3 rounds on a guy with efficiency issues in both efficiency cats, I'm willing to take an FG% dip because bigs will make up for it, but my guards shooting such heavy attempts and hitting 70-71 is pretty brutal.

 

 

Generally, I agree.  But if you had a trio of something like LeBron, Drummond, Doncic then I think you'd own the counting stats.

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46 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

I'm very concerned about picking him in the first three rounds with that FT in my build. It only makes sense if you have a heavy FT maker to balance him out, but for the rest of the draft it puts you in this weird place where you have to pigeon hole higher FT% shooters just to make up for him, and only so many big men fit that bill. I'm just not willing to gamble my first 3 rounds on a guy with efficiency issues in both efficiency cats, I'm willing to take an FG% dip because bigs will make up for it, but my guards shooting such heavy attempts and hitting 70-71 is pretty brutal.

 

 

Or just punt FT, because you're gonna punt something anyway so it might as well be that.  Yhis post reads so oddly.  Like someone who's never even considered the possibility of ignoring one cat in order to be better at several others.  It's calling punting and most serious players do it in H2H, which is what most people play...

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13 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

Or just punt FT, because you're gonna punt something anyway so it might as well be that.  Yhis post reads so oddly.  Like someone who's never even considered the possibility of ignoring one cat in order to be better at several others.  It's calling punting and most serious players do it in H2H, which is what most people play...

 

It doesn't read oddly when you read the first sentence, 'in my build'. Your post is so odd, it reads like someone who's never considered valuing a balance/efficiency build. A 3 category killer for me is a no no early on. I'm willing to take a hit in TO and or one of the efficiency cats (Harden for example), but a guard who's bad at all three is a double edged sword. He pairs nicely with any punt FT strong FG build, Giannis, Drummond, etc. (as Stifletower alluded).

In my draft strategy thread I stated the year I won my league a few years back I won by punting FG%, you likely didn't read that, but either way.

If you value efficiency he doesn't fit. I'm not tanking a category this year, so he doesn't work. 

Edited by Lifschitz

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59 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Generally, I agree.  But if you had a trio of something like LeBron, Drummond, Doncic then I think you'd own the counting stats.

 

One argument I'd like to make to the punt FT proponents who want Doncic on their teams..

Let's say you start off by going with a LeBron / Luka or Giannis / Luka combo, you now round out your 3rd round with a big man because otherwise you'll be screwed in big man cats..

The issue you run into later is that there aren't any high FG% guards who also get you a ton of assists, 3's, and steals. Assists are a super scarce category, so if you're now going to unintentionally punt 2 categories, while also punting TO, so up to 3. You have to absolutely crush your next 6 categories, but since you need big men for high FG%, that means fewer steals, so now you're down to 5. You'll need to smash some high steals/high FG% SFs later on, and you can count those on one hand.

This is why I'm not a fan of tanking FT% personally, and I've never seen someone win my league with a tank FT% build, not to say it doesn't work, but it comes with its weaknesses. I see a lot more viability for tank FG% because it's a buffet where you can mix and match big men and guards without worrying about being bad in additional categories + you get high usage players who produce a lot of fantasy goodness.

It seems a lot easier to me to punt assist or FG% than any other categories, punting FT% to me correlates too highly with assist ratio - you can't even grab someone like Lonzo Ball in the later rounds because he'll be bad alongside Doncic. 

So the argument that Doncic is good in this build doesn't hold water under a categorical microscope when assessing the actual players available later on and how they fit into a strong FG% build while maintaining high assists, steals, and other categories which are guard friendly.

As I've stated previously, stat sets go together. REB / BLK / FG%, Assists / Steals / 3's, etc. Generally guards who have high assists also have abysmal FG%, so let's say realistic past the 4th round - Rozier, Lowry, Teague, Rubio, etc. 

You run into a wall where you can't possibly find assists to supplement Giannis - LeBron / Doncic. You'll be relying on two guys. Because if you have to get any other guards with high assists they will hurt your FG% alongside Doncic. You'll be forced into a situation where you're now hurting your strong cats, meanwhile you're doing this at the expense of getting more guys who fit the build. 

Doncic makes a lot more sense to me in a punt FG% build, not punt FT.

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34 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

 

It doesn't read oddly when you read the first sentence, 'in my build'. Your post is so odd, it reads like someone who's never considered valuing a balance/efficiency build. A 3 category killer for me is a no no early on. I'm willing to take a hit in TO and or one of the efficiency cats (Harden for example), but a guard who's bad at all three is a double edged sword. He pairs nicely with any punt FT strong FG build, Giannis, Drummond, etc. (as Stifletower alluded).

In my draft strategy thread I stated the year I won my league a few years back I won by punting FG%, you likely didn't read that, but either way.

If you value efficiency he doesn't fit. I'm not tanking a category this year, so he doesn't work. 

You have one build?  That you've decided on before the draft? 

Or are you only in one league and you posted in between rounds?

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Trying not to be a homer but is 19 a reach?  After the 1st preseason game hes 20 of 22 from the line.   I know its preseason but DeAndre Jordan carried it over last year.   

 

H2H 9 cat 12 team

 

 

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1 hour ago, nadertime78 said:

Trying not to be a homer but is 19 a reach?  After the 1st preseason game hes 20 of 22 from the line.   I know its preseason but DeAndre Jordan carried it over last year.   

 

H2H 9 cat 12 team

 

 

If you are talking about FT%, last year 71.3% is an anomaly (in Europe, he is career 80.1%. ).

Late 2nd  and later is ok imo

 

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15 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

If you are talking about FT%, last year 71.3% is an anomaly (in Europe, he is career 80.1%. ).

Late 2nd  and later is ok imo

 

Yes sorry FT %  

 

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On 10/9/2019 at 7:27 PM, Lifschitz said:

 

One argument I'd like to make to the punt FT proponents who want Doncic on their teams..

Let's say you start off by going with a LeBron / Luka or Giannis / Luka combo, you now round out your 3rd round with a big man because otherwise you'll be screwed in big man cats..

The issue you run into later is that there aren't any high FG% guards who also get you a ton of assists, 3's, and steals. Assists are a super scarce category, so if you're now going to unintentionally punt 2 categories, while also punting TO, so up to 3. You have to absolutely crush your next 6 categories, but since you need big men for high FG%, that means fewer steals, so now you're down to 5. You'll need to smash some high steals/high FG% SFs later on, and you can count those on one hand.

This is why I'm not a fan of tanking FT% personally, and I've never seen someone win my league with a tank FT% build, not to say it doesn't work, but it comes with its weaknesses. I see a lot more viability for tank FG% because it's a buffet where you can mix and match big men and guards without worrying about being bad in additional categories + you get high usage players who produce a lot of fantasy goodness.

It seems a lot easier to me to punt assist or FG% than any other categories, punting FT% to me correlates too highly with assist ratio - you can't even grab someone like Lonzo Ball in the later rounds because he'll be bad alongside Doncic. 

So the argument that Doncic is good in this build doesn't hold water under a categorical microscope when assessing the actual players available later on and how they fit into a strong FG% build while maintaining high assists, steals, and other categories which are guard friendly.

As I've stated previously, stat sets go together. REB / BLK / FG%, Assists / Steals / 3's, etc. Generally guards who have high assists also have abysmal FG%, so let's say realistic past the 4th round - Rozier, Lowry, Teague, Rubio, etc. 

You run into a wall where you can't possibly find assists to supplement Giannis - LeBron / Doncic. You'll be relying on two guys. Because if you have to get any other guards with high assists they will hurt your FG% alongside Doncic. You'll be forced into a situation where you're now hurting your strong cats, meanwhile you're doing this at the expense of getting more guys who fit the build. 

Doncic makes a lot more sense to me in a punt FG% build, not punt FT.

 

That's the tough part about punting FT, and to an extent, points, is finding the 3's / assists without hurting you FG and TO, so sometimes if can be easy to devolve into a triple punt - 3's / Assists / FT (or points).  Hopefully your FG and TO is good enough to be able to draft Rubio / Lonzo, etc...which theoretically it should since they're relatively low volume...but yes if you take Luka 2nd round it will be tough to makeup FG unless you can get Capela in the 3rd and maybe Bryant in the 5th, but even then you'll need another high FG player or a few decent FG guard/wings, which like you said is hard to find.  So I've been trying to scrape for assists from players like Horford and Nance, who average above average assists for a big with excellent FG.  Or possibly shooting for Simmons or Siakam in the 3rd round as high FG players who get assists...of course Simmons hurts you in other ways and really puts you behind in 3's/TO...

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So last 2 games the FT looking good...90%...might tick up close to 80% this year...lets hope he avoids those gut wrenching 3-10 / 1-9 type of games lol its like the mafia whacking you in the knees 

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Is he gonna get his sg,sf eligibility back on yahoo? Idk why they took it off especially with delon wright starting at point

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Like Ben Simmons (but in regards to different cats), if a team is built right, he can be a total MVP type stud.

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2 hours ago, mcflywalker said:

Anybody taking him at the top of the 2nd? I saw him fly off before Westbrook in two of my leagues

Yes, I took him at 17 in the 2nd in a punt FT/TO with Lebron in the 1st. Then Capela 3rd. 

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Snagged Luka early 2nd as well and paired him with Dame. Hope it works out. Definitely see improvement with Luka this year, and if he can eclipse 78-80% ft it'd be a huge improvement.

Edited by lilremix328

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On 10/17/2019 at 4:58 AM, mcflywalker said:

Anybody taking him at the top of the 2nd? I saw him fly off before Westbrook in two of my leagues

 

Westbrook showing major red flags, albeit its only preseason so we'll see once the season starts.  But I would go Luka over Westbrook for sure.  One has to share the ball with the highest usage player on the planet and one has the ball all to himself.  Luka more 3's, possibly higher FG + higher FT.  We'll see how the points and counting stats shake out...  

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espn have him now as PG, SG and SF. no complaints here but wow, they are so arbitrary with this.

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21 hours ago, freddo said:

espn have him now as PG, SG and SF. no complaints here but wow, they are so arbitrary with this.

I’ve been freaking out for a week about how I have no good SF, who knew the answer was already on my roster? Lol

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6 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I’ve been freaking out for a week about how I have no good SF, who knew the answer was already on my roster? Lol

They still need to update his positions in yahoo leagues, how does he only have PG right now..

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13 minutes ago, lilremix328 said:

They still need to update his positions in yahoo leagues, how does he only have PG right now..

Yikes. Hopefully that happens soon for you🤞🏻

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