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Cristian Javier SP/RP HOU

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Cristian Javier just got promoted to AAA.  Dominated AA as a starter / long reliever to the tune of 2.07 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 13.86 K/9 and only a .124 BAA over 74 innings there.  Flat out unhittable.

 

Easily one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors right now and knocking on the big leagues at 22.  Also he's in the best organization in all of baseball to teach pitching so the future is very bright.  I am of the strong assumption that The Stros will use his him out of the pen in the playoffs.

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I like him, lot of reliever risk but seems like a major league arm. If he takes another step forward skill wise, could be something.

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2 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

How is it that this guy is not a top 100 prospect???

 

 

Crazy right?

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I’ve wondered that myself.   I drafted him in a dynasty league with 14 teams and 20 minors kept...and no one knew who he was.   His minor league stats year after year are some of the best I’ve seen.  And he’s not just a two pitch guy if what I’ve read is right.  It’s like the prognosticators know something I can’t see. 

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1 hour ago, Smacdaddy said:

I’ve wondered that myself.   I drafted him in a dynasty league with 14 teams and 20 minors kept...and no one knew who he was.   His minor league stats year after year are some of the best I’ve seen.  And he’s not just a two pitch guy if what I’ve read is right.  It’s like the prognosticators know something I can’t see. 

There’s the RP risk but that’s there with guys like Deivi and Brusdar and this guy is putting up 100+ innings at 22 years old and very close to the majors on one of the best teams in baseball. It does seem like this guy has a legit shot at a rotation spot in 2020 or is that really not a possibility. If Urquidy and Framber did last year, why not this guy? And why isn’t he considered a bigger prospect than Urquidy?

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I have been interested in his arm for awhile, he has stuff--for sure. Here is some snippets from Klaw's Stros top20 (he was 5th):

"Javier gets high swing-and-miss rates — he had the second-best strikeout rate of any minor league starter in 2019 — on a bucket of grade 50/55 pitches, with good deception and excellent feel for mixing and matching his various offerings. Scouts question whether better hitters will continue to miss at these rates given how much he works out of the zone, and those high walk rates limit him to a back-end starter role."

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5 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

There’s the RP risk but that’s there with guys like Deivi and Brusdar and this guy is putting up 100+ innings at 22 years old and very close to the majors on one of the best teams in baseball. It does seem like this guy has a legit shot at a rotation spot in 2020 or is that really not a possibility. If Urquidy and Framber did last year, why not this guy? And why isn’t he considered a bigger prospect than Urquidy?

Because Urquidy came up and performed big time both in the regular season and the playoffs.  Who cares who is a bigger prospect.  Jacob deGrom wasn't considered a "bigger prospect" but he came up and performed.

But if you want to go by prospect ratings then Forrest Whitley still has a bigger one than Javier.

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5 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

. If Urquidy and Framber did last year, why not this guy? And why isn’t he considered a bigger prospect than Urquidy?

 

I mean at this time last year. Urquidy wasn't even a top 30 prospect in the Astros system or honorable mention by fangraphs and Javier was

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-houston-astros/

 

So,Urquidy really only passed Javier sometime in the middle of last season when he was shoving in AAA or the bigs.  

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

I mean at this time last year. Urquidy wasn't even a top 30 prospect in the Astros system or honorable mention by fangraphs and Javier was

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-houston-astros/

 

So,Urquidy really only passed Javier sometime in the middle of last season when he was shoving in AAA or the bigs.  

Ok makes sense. Looking at some deeper rankings where I could even find Javier, I saw Urquidy and forgot he want on the radar either until he showed up in the playoffs. 
 

Does anyone see Javier joining the rotation this season?

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Posted (edited)

Seems like all the Astros options for the #5 spot are “ailing”. Cristian Javier, anyone?

 

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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Looks like they're going with Framber Valdez and Josh James in the rotation. Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reportedly indicated Javier could make the roster as a bullpen piece/multi-inning swing reliever with all the question marks in the pen right now. I'd provide a link but it's behind a paywall.

Eric from Fangraphs also previously indicated multiple times that he doesn't believe Javier's dominant K numbers will translate the majors in a starting role because he only has a fringe fastball and MLB hitters will adjust to the off-speed stuff a few times through the batting order. Thinks he can be a solid reliever though.

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Posted (edited)

This is what I saw earlier on CBS. In itself, it's pretty big news even if he's not in the initial starting rotation.  Means he's next in line if someone else fails or goes down. While he doesn't have velocity, he is known to hide the ball extremely well. On the Astros, he can be valuable even without the high K numbers.  

 

 
Quote

 

Astros' Cristian Javier: Could make 30-man roster
 
Javier could make the Opening Day roster, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports. The Astros' pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries and absences from camp, and with Javier already on the 40-man roster and fairly accomplished in the upper levels of the minors, he is a natural candidate to step into an early-season role. Javier lacks a plus offspeed pitch or premium velocity, but he has never failed in the minors (2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 377 career innings) and he had a 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 170:59 K:BB in 113.2 innings across three levels in 2019. His top pitch is a low-90s "invisiball" that is incredibly deceptive from his low three-quarters arm slot. He projects as a solid No. 4 starter and could be used as a swing man or long reliever in 2020.

 

 
Edited by TheForearmShiver

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6 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

This is what I saw earlier on CBS. In itself, it's pretty big news even if he's not in the initial starting rotation.  Means he's next in line if someone else fails or goes down. While he doesn't have velocity, he is known to hide the ball extremely well. On the Astros, he can be valuable even without the high K numbers. 

Is Forrest Whitley on the 30 man too?  Or are they holding him down a week or so for service time?  Because he could be in the mix too I'd imagine.

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30 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Is Forrest Whitley on the 30 man too?  Or are they holding him down a week or so for service time?  Because he could be in the mix too I'd imagine.

Whitley is a non-40 man player. 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/Astros-initial-player-pool-2020-season-15372438.php

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So Whitey will remain down at least a week or more then for service time and longer if the current pitching staff functions okay.  Thanks, got ya.

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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

So Whitey will remain down at least a week or more then for service time and longer if the current pitching staff functions okay.  Thanks, got ya.

Whitley had some serious issues and got into the pitching coach’s doghouse in spring training. If I recall correctly he’s got serious attitude issues. Came in overweight, late and decided to stop working in the offseason after having a great fall league. At that point it was looking like he was anything but a good bet to be pitching in the majors anytime soon. Thankfully due to the expanded rosters it’s a guarantee he’ll at least be close to the team on the taxi squad but I don’t see them rushing him to the major league rotation until he can prove he’s ready again. 

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Posted (edited)

Seems like good odds we see Javier pitch in the majors in some capacity this year. Astros pitching depth will be tested.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Whitley had some serious issues and got into the pitching coach’s doghouse in spring training. If I recall correctly he’s got serious attitude issues. Came in overweight, late and decided to stop working in the offseason after having a great fall league. At that point it was looking like he was anything but a good bet to be pitching in the majors anytime soon. Thankfully due to the expanded rosters it’s a guarantee he’ll at least be close to the team on the taxi squad but I don’t see them rushing him to the major league rotation until he can prove he’s ready again. 

 

To clarify, Whitley thought adding weight would help him over the course of a season and showed up to spring training weighing 236.  The Astros did not agree with this and were unhappy.  Whitley is now weighing 203 and reportedly looks very sharp.  Saying he has serious attitude issues is just a hot take.

Edited by Lonny Baxter
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