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2019 Survivor Pool Thread

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19 minutes ago, ralphg13 said:

So New England seems obvious but there is also something to going contrarian and not picking the team that 50% of the rest of the pool is going to take. Wasn't it last year that Minnesota was a 17 point favorite and got beat handily by Buffalo? That shook up my pool real good. Now I am certainly not saying I think Miami has a chance to beat New England, but just be wary about going with the same team over half your pool is likely going to take. 


Obviously no harm with going with NE here. Their schedule is set up so the next 6 games should be "gimmes", 5 after that are more competitive, then the last 3 are "gimmes" again. So really have to decide when you want to use the team that is currently the favourites to win the Superbowl.

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I'm in 2 survivor pools. Here's how I would rank the matchups and here's who I'm going with:

Pool #1: PHI used
Pool #2: SEA used

1. NE @ MIA (odds favour NE -19.0)
2. KC @ OAK (odds favour KC -8.0)
3. DAL @ WSH (odds favour DAL -5.0)
4. CLE @ NYJ (odds favour CLE -3.0)
5. CHI @ DEN (odds favour CHI -2.0) - Pool #1 pick
6. JAX @ HOU (odds favour HOU -9.0)
7. TB @ CAR (odds favour CAR -7.0) - Pool #2 pick
8. ARZ @ BAL (odds favour BAL -13.5)
9. LAC @ DET (odds favour LAC -3.0)
10. SF @ CIN (odds favour CIN -1.5)
11. SEA @ PIT (odds favour PIT -4.0)
12. PHI @ ATL (odds favour PHI -1.5)
13. NO @ LAR (odds favour LAR -3.0)
14. BUF @ NYG (odds favour BUF -2.0)
15. IND @ TEN (odds favour TEN -3.0)
16. MIN @ GB (odds favour GB -3.0)

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1 minute ago, Asapjoshy said:

Ravens at home over a rookie qb?


Jury's still out for me on this BAL offense. Looked great in the first game, but against a high-school level defense in Miami. The Arizona secondary is much better, so I don't see as many big plays down the field. I think most of BAL's production will come through their running game. I still like Baltimore to win, but I think it'll be closer than what most people are anticipating. I'm avoiding this game in a survivor pool.

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22 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

I'm in 2 survivor pools. Here's how I would rank the matchups and here's who I'm going with:

Pool #1: PHI used
Pool #2: SEA used

1. NE @ MIA (odds favour NE -19.0)
2. KC @ OAK (odds favour KC -8.0)
3. DAL @ WSH (odds favour DAL -5.0)
4. CLE @ NYJ (odds favour CLE -3.0)
5. CHI @ DEN (odds favour CHI -2.0) - Pool #1 pick
6. JAX @ HOU (odds favour HOU -9.0)
7. TB @ CAR (odds favour CAR -7.0) - Pool #2 pick
8. ARZ @ BAL (odds favour BAL -13.5)
9. LAC @ DET (odds favour LAC -3.0)
10. SF @ CIN (odds favour CIN -1.5)
11. SEA @ PIT (odds favour PIT -4.0)
12. PHI @ ATL (odds favour PHI -1.5)
13. NO @ LAR (odds favour LAR -3.0)
14. BUF @ NYG (odds favour BUF -2.0)
15. IND @ TEN (odds favour TEN -3.0)
16. MIN @ GB (odds favour GB -3.0)

 

Bears on the road at altitude after the way that offense looked in week 1? No thank you. Mile High is one of the hardest places to play in the league.

 

I lean HOU, CAR or BAL.

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1 minute ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

Bears on the road at altitude after the way that offense looked in week 1? No thank you. Mile High is one of the hardest places to play in the league.

 

I lean HOU, CAR or BAL.


More so a combination of loving the Bears defense and hating the Broncos offense. I really think the Broncos fail to reach double digits in this one. Not super high on the Chicago offense, but they'll do better than they did in week 1. Just need to use Montgomery a bit more. It'll be a low scoring game, but I don't see the Bears losing this one.

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Pats look mighty tempting but this literally happens every year @ MIA in the heat...they always beat them.  Sure - the Dolphins look like an absolutely dumpster fire but crazier things have happened.  In the last 6 years, Miami has beaten New England 5 times!

People always say "not this season - there's just no way" and they are just left shell shocked by Sunday.

Edited by ludawg23

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Just now, Windgara said:

h8 to waste pats week 2 but just go vs mia every week?


Gotta use them sometime. As a Pats fan I'm avoiding them just because I think it'd be bad juju to pick them against Miami (a team we've lost to 5 out of the last 6 times we've played them in Miami, even though we were by far the better team on paper each time). But really there'll be no bigger "gimme" this year if there's such a thing. 

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1. NE @ MIA NE -19.0
2. KC @ OAK KC -8.0

 

Both of those violate the 2 rules: Divisional game + Road team.

Feel like NE is the lock but crazy things happen in the NFL.

You gotta get by the first 10 weeks before you even decide on getting cute with picks.

If you go by the biggest home fav strategy, that'd be Baltimore this week.

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1 hour ago, ludawg23 said:

Pats look mighty tempting but this literally happens every year @ MIA in the heat...they always beat them.  Sure - the Dolphins look like an absolutely dumpster fire but crazier things have happened.  In the last 6 years, Miami has beaten New England 5 times!

People always say "not this season - there's just no way" and they are just left shell shocked by Sunday.

 

I'm not worried.  After the way Miami won game 14 last year, I think Belichick will have the Patriots fired up.

Regardless though, look at those games individually.  In 2017, when the Dolphins beat the Patriots, Gronkowski was serving a 1 game suspension and Edelman was injured.  Their receiving corps were Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.  In 2015, it was week 17, and heat wasn't an issue in January.  Plus, teams half-a** it in week 17.  

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Anyone else thinking about going bills over giants? Gmen looked horrible on Defense, no sterling shepard, and that buffalo front line is nasty against the run. 

 

If it was in buffalo id be 100% on this one but since it’s a road tilt I’m cautious. 

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I've currently picked BAL to win over AZ, but my close seconds are NE over MIA on the road and CAR over TB at home.

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Locking in NE, they have the softest matchup 

Other clear picks like BAL , KC, HOU, and CAR are reasonable too though, but I'm taking the easy money early in the season

Edited by jonasdash

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On 9/10/2019 at 11:51 AM, Idoolittle said:

I'm in 2 survivor pools. Here's how I would rank the matchups and here's who I'm going with:

Pool #1: PHI used
Pool #2: SEA used

1. NE @ MIA (odds favour NE -19.0)
2. KC @ OAK (odds favour KC -8.0)
3. DAL @ WSH (odds favour DAL -5.0)
4. CLE @ NYJ (odds favour CLE -3.0)
5. CHI @ DEN (odds favour CHI -2.0) - Pool #1 pick
6. JAX @ HOU (odds favour HOU -9.0)
7. TB @ CAR (odds favour CAR -7.0) - Pool #2 pick
8. ARZ @ BAL (odds favour BAL -13.5)
9. LAC @ DET (odds favour LAC -3.0)
10. SF @ CIN (odds favour CIN -1.5)
11. SEA @ PIT (odds favour PIT -4.0)
12. PHI @ ATL (odds favour PHI -1.5)
13. NO @ LAR (odds favour LAR -3.0)
14. BUF @ NYG (odds favour BUF -2.0)
15. IND @ TEN (odds favour TEN -3.0)
16. MIN @ GB (odds favour GB -3.0)

 

Favour? Beat it Canadian or English guy. 

 

Road division rivalries are always a stay away game for me. I don't think rules really matter when the spread is 20, but I always stay away. 

 

Good Luck 

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On 9/10/2019 at 12:15 PM, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

Bears on the road at altitude after the way that offense looked in week 1? No thank you. Mile High is one of the hardest places to play in the league.

 

I lean HOU, CAR or BAL.

 

On 9/10/2019 at 12:22 PM, Idoolittle said:


More so a combination of loving the Bears defense and hating the Broncos offense. I really think the Broncos fail to reach double digits in this one. Not super high on the Chicago offense, but they'll do better than they did in week 1. Just need to use Montgomery a bit more. It'll be a low scoring game, but I don't see the Bears losing this one.

Since the merger, the Broncos are something like 50-8-2 playing at home in the first two weeks of the season. Players aren’t in full game shape yet, and playing at altitude is no joke. Are the Bears only going to be the 9th team out of 61 to win in Denver? I’ll go with the history and say no.

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This might sound ridiculous but I’m a little hesitant with NE @ MIA. 

 

The Patriots have lost 5 of the last 6 games in Miami (I believe). It will be around 88 degrees and humid.

 

I might stay away and pray for a miracle where a big chunk of the pool gets eliminated week 2. 

Edited by Members_Only_76

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On 9/10/2019 at 10:05 AM, Asapjoshy said:

Ravens at home over a rookie qb?

Ravens are the pick this week, Patriots are better saved for Miami again later in the year imo

Jeez, reading this page, it's like you guys don't even realize the Pats and Dolphins are in the same division. It's a road game for New England and they play each other again.

Edited by miasma16
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4 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Ravens are the pick this week, Patriots are better saved for Miami again later in the year imo

 

I think Pats this weekend is the best play. 

I'm much comfortable using the Rams at home vs Arizona or Dallas at home vs Washington in week 17, instead of a Patriots team that is more than likely going to be resting starters in Week 17 and the game is in New England in the middle of winter weather season where funky things can happen.

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I’m trying to find a website where I’m able to set up a pool with the option to buy back in one time for the original entry fee. Looked at Yahoo, CBS and ESPN and this didn’t seem to be an option on these sites. Is there a site of that does this or will I have to use an excel sheet to run it.

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I don't really like Baltimore this week as much as some have suggested above. Arizona looked awful in the first half but Kyler impressed me in the 2nd half. Showed resiliency, toughness, and talent. Baltimore looked great, I get it, but they played the Dolphins who will probably go 1-15 this season. I wouldn't overlook all the question marks/flaws we had/saw with Baltimore since they beat a FCS level team. 

 

Pats vs Miami feels like a trap game too. I think NE wins but Miami has a history of beating them in Miami. 

 

I hate to do it, but I'm thinking about burning KC vs Oak this weekend. It's a divisional road game, which violates the 2 unwritten rules, but that just feels a lot safer than NE or Baltimore to me.

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don't be tempted by the Browns...don't be tempted by the Browns...don't be tempted by the Browns

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13 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

don't be tempted by the Browns...don't be tempted by the Browns...don't be tempted by the Browns

With the recent news that's a little hard :D

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1 hour ago, ludawg23 said:

don't be tempted by the Browns...don't be tempted by the Browns...don't be tempted by the Browns

 

Might be the only good time to use them this season.

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