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mongidig

Who ya reaching for?

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12 hours ago, kidsgotsoul said:

Cook towards the back of the first.

 

Pollard, Darwin Thompson and Justice Hill around 9 or later.

In my high stakes league, Cook went 2.01, Pollard went 9.07, Thompson went 8.08, and Hill went 12.07.

 

Drafting a massive upside backup RB is not “reaching” at all nowadays.

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16 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

In my high stakes league, Cook went 2.01, Pollard went 9.07, Thompson went 8.08, and Hill went 12.07.

 

Drafting a massive upside backup RB is not “reaching” at all nowadays.

Agree with this. I guess I was speaking more in the context of "home" leagues. I've seen all of these guys going around those ADPs in high stakes draft boards over the last few weeks. 

Edited by kidsgotsoul

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12 hours ago, Tenner said:

At 6 too. Also thinking about it. It’s 50/50. Still a week away from draft. 

Just read the Pittsburgh has the second easiest schedule for RB based on last years defensive stats.  

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7 minutes ago, BklynBlue said:

Just read the Pittsburgh has the second easiest schedule for RB based on last years defensive stats.  

I leaked information to the main gossiper in my league that if someone wants Conner they better get him with the 4th or 5th pick. Because he will likely not get passed #6. 

 

#6: Conner

#19: D.Will, Mixon, or Hill

#30: Keenan, Thielen, Kittle, or Diggs

#43: Godwin, Montgomery, Woods, Kupp, Cooks

#56: Mike Williams, Engram, OJ, 

#69: Dede, Duke, Cook

 

Thats how I forecast my strategy if I go Conner at 6 in PPR. At 19 you miss out on all high end WRs unless Hill or Juju falls (very unlikely). 

 

Likely going RB-RB

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44 minutes ago, Tenner said:

I leaked information to the main gossiper in my league that if someone wants Conner they better get him with the 4th or 5th pick. Because he will likely not get passed #6. 

 

#6: Conner

#19: D.Will, Mixon, or Hill

#30: Keenan, Thielen, Kittle, or Diggs

#43: Godwin, Montgomery, Woods, Kupp, Cooks

#56: Mike Williams, Engram, OJ, 

#69: Dede, Duke, Cook

 

Thats how I forecast my strategy if I go Conner at 6 in PPR. At 19 you miss out on all high end WRs unless Hill or Juju falls (very unlikely). 

 

Likely going RB-RB

 

You won't get Hill at 19.

You won't get Keenan at 30.

You might get one of those Rams at 43 but I'd bet the other two are gone.

Engram went 43rd in my most recent draft.

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2 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

You won't get Hill at 19.

 

THIS. 

astounding how this kid is not yet considered a surefire 1st rd pluck ... 

3 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

You won't get Keenan at 30.

 

dicey ... between the Beemer hype and KA still on ice, it juuuuuuuust might happen ... as Rocco said about offing Hyman Roth: "difficult ...but not impossible"

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Just now, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

THIS. 

astounding how this kid is not yet considered a surefire 1st rd pluck ... 

 

dicey ... between the Beemer hype and KA still on ice, it juuuuuuuust might happen ... as Rocco said about offing Hyman Roth: "difficult ...but not impossible"

 

Fair enough regarding KA.  Hill went at 1.7 in my league and would have been taken at 1.9 (by me) if he hadn't.

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2 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

Fair enough regarding KA.  Hill went at 1.7 in my league and would have been taken at 1.9 (by me) if he hadn't.

 

i like the cut of your jib, Obie - Hill ain't sliding past me at #8 ... COLD. DEAD. HANDS. 

WR1 in my main leeg format last year, WR2 otherwise - bargain anyway ya slice it. 

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1 minute ago, oban14 said:

 

You won't get Hill at 19.

You won't get Keenan at 30.

You might get one of those Rams at 43 but I'd bet the other two are gone.

Engram went 43rd in my most recent draft.

I was about to say, not a single one of those picks is a reach. At #6, assuming Saquon/Kamara/CMC/Zeke/DJ have went, you're picking between Nuk, Chubb, Conner, Bell, and Adams in my mind. Personal preference of a group of 5 players does not make it a "reach."

This thread has just turned to people posting who they want to pick in their draft.

I'll post some actual reaches I'm looking at:

  • Lamar Jackson in the 6th or earlier (ADP per FFC 9.08). People keep saying his floor is high but his ceiling is low. I could not disagree more. The increased weapons out of the backfield in Ingram/Hill and Hollywood Brown just scream an increase in passing yards and overall productivity. More threats on the outside = more room for Lamar and co to operate with the option. I'm expecting a top-5 finish for fantasy purposes.
  • Tyler Boyd in the end of 3rd or beginning of 4th (ADP 5.12). You're looking at ridiculous target share even when AJG comes back. Main difference between him at the other guys like Edelman, Woods, Godwin, Kupp, etc. is the volume. If I'm going RB heavy early I want Boyd early as well.
  • Leonard Fournette in the late 1st (ADP 2.10). I'm buying the positive offseason for Fournette big time. He's so powerful as it is that I think him losing some weight (physically and emotionally) is going to have him as David Johnson 2016 type season. As long as Foles can support any sort of legitimate passing consistency, I see Fournette as top-10 overall conservatively.

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14 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

I was about to say, not a single one of those picks is a reach. At #6, assuming Saquon/Kamara/CMC/Zeke/DJ have went, you're picking between Nuk, Chubb, Conner, Bell, and Adams in my mind. Personal preference of a group of 5 players does not make it a "reach."

This thread has just turned to people posting who they want to pick in their draft.

I'll post some actual reaches I'm looking at:

  • Lamar Jackson in the 6th or earlier (ADP per FFC 9.08). People keep saying his floor is high but his ceiling is low. I could not disagree more. The increased weapons out of the backfield in Ingram/Hill and Hollywood Brown just scream an increase in passing yards and overall productivity. More threats on the outside = more room for Lamar and co to operate with the option. I'm expecting a top-5 finish for fantasy purposes.
  • Tyler Boyd in the end of 3rd or beginning of 4th (ADP 5.12). You're looking at ridiculous target share even when AJG comes back. Main difference between him at the other guys like Edelman, Woods, Godwin, Kupp, etc. is the volume. If I'm going RB heavy early I want Boyd early as well.
  • Leonard Fournette in the late 1st (ADP 2.10). I'm buying the positive offseason for Fournette big time. He's so powerful as it is that I think him losing some weight (physically and emotionally) is going to have him as David Johnson 2016 type season. As long as Foles can support any sort of legitimate passing consistency, I see Fournette as top-10 overall conservatively.

 

I didn't take Jackson that high, but I did reach slightly to get him as my QB1.  Got fournette with pick 3.2. 

Regarding Boyd, I think one of the smartest plays people can make is to get him and then draft AJG.  One or both of them is going to crush it this season and whoever is the WR1 is on your team.  Not a lot of handcuff/two WR plays this season but that is one of them.

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8 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

I didn't take Jackson that high, but I did reach slightly to get him as my QB1.  Got fournette with pick 3.2. 

Regarding Boyd, I think one of the smartest plays people can make is to get him and then draft AJG.  One or both of them is going to crush it this season and whoever is the WR1 is on your team.  Not a lot of handcuff/two WR plays this season but that is one of them.

 

Not spending two valuable picks on Bengals WRs.   It’s a nice thought that one will be the clear better play but with AJG injury and Boyd emergence/big contract...that’s far from a good bet.    

 

If no one has said it yet....Emmanuel Sanders is a bargain.   #13 scoring wr when he went down last season- fully recovered- going in the 7th.     Steal

 

 

Edited by Impreza178
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1 hour ago, Tenner said:

I leaked information to the main gossiper in my league that if someone wants Conner they better get him with the 4th or 5th pick. Because he will likely not get passed #6. 

 

#6: Conner

#19: D.Will, Mixon, or Hill

#30: Keenan, Thielen, Kittle, or Diggs

#43: Godwin, Montgomery, Woods, Kupp, Cooks

#56: Mike Williams, Engram, OJ, 

#69: Dede, Duke, Cook

 

Thats how I forecast my strategy if I go Conner at 6 in PPR. At 19 you miss out on all high end WRs unless Hill or Juju falls (very unlikely). 

 

Likely going RB-RB

I believe these are called “targets”,  not “reaches”.  

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15 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

If no one has said it yet....Emmanuel Sanders is a bargain.   #13 scoring wr when he went down last season- fully recovered- going in the 7th.     Steal

 

prez ... i went down in flames with ya last year on the Sutton spec after Manny's mishap - colossal dud. 

fast forward to now, with Flacco at the helm ... do you really think Manny will be that much above the kid Hamilton and the aforementioned wunderkind Sutton?  not to mention Jugaloo draft dahlink Fant(a) ...

we talking an aging Flacco here - you really think that stiff can deliver the goods for the Donks?  

yeahyeahyeah ... i know they looked lights out this preseason when Manny finally got back out there, but - man, this is a tough one to snack on. 

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24 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

I didn't take Jackson that high, but I did reach slightly to get him as my QB1.  Got fournette with pick 3.2. 

Regarding Boyd, I think one of the smartest plays people can make is to get him and then draft AJG.  One or both of them is going to crush it this season and whoever is the WR1 is on your team.  Not a lot of handcuff/two WR plays this season but that is one of them.

I took the perceived "value" of AJG at pick 70 compared to his ADP per FFC of 56, and passed on Boyd at 43 vs. his ADP of 61 and am absolutely kicking myself for it. I think Boyd is going to have a significantly better overall season than AJG so in hindsight I made a very stupid decision.

This thread is one of the most important threads in this entire forum IMO. It's so easy to anchor our expectations of our drafts using ADP, Yahoo/ESPN ranks, etc. We draft someone in the general "range" of our current pick even if it sometimes means we end up passing one someone we wanted more than someone else because of the "value."

It's a backwards way of doing it.

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Just now, PlayTheWaivers said:

Godwin over Cooks, Edelman, Lockett, Golladay, and the like. Dude is going to be a WR1 this year. Count on it. 

I hope your right. I drafted him over all those guys and Allen...'Reached' for him in the 3rd cause I knew I wasn't gonna get him in the 4th.

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2 minutes ago, bigslick631 said:

I hope your right. I drafted him over all those guys and Allen...'Reached' for him in the 3rd cause I knew I wasn't gonna get him in the 4th.

 

Over Allen? You'll terribly fail...

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8 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

prez ... i went down in flames with ya last year on the Sutton spec after Manny's mishap - colossal dud. 

fast forward to now, with Flacco at the helm ... do you really think Manny will be that much above the kid Hamilton and the aforementioned wunderkind Sutton?  not to mention Jugaloo draft dahlink Fant(a) ...

we talking an aging Flacco here - you really think that stiff can deliver the goods for the Donks?  

yeahyeahyeah ... i know they looked lights out this preseason when Manny finally got back out there, but - man, this is a tough one to snack on. 

 

Oof...bummer dude.    i tried to warn everyone to chill on the Sutton hype late last season.  He wasn’t ready for all the attention and responsibility.  Thought that would change this year- but he’s still got a ways to go while Sanders has been noticeably better in camp.    

Hamilton is one step above being on the bubble.   That’s an easy fade.  He’s a backup. 

Sutton is a mystery-  but I’m concerned.  He’ll play X mostly.  DTs old spot.  

Tim Patrick has shined once again and I’d bet he ends up the other starting outside Wr. Interesting sleeper for deeeep/dynasty league. 

Sanders will lead in receiving out of the slot.  

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Just now, Cam4Future said:

 

Over Allen? You'll terribly fail...

Maybe...just had a hard time drafting him....He's already on the shelf with an ankle issue, strong up and coming competition....probably the wrong choice but went with my gut.

  

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I'm big time on JuJu this year. I just drafted #10 in a 10 team and just went JuJu/Cook back to back

Edited by koreaonaboat

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Godwin over Cooks, Edelman, Lockett, Golladay, and the like. Dude is going to be a WR1 this year. Count on it. 

I hope you're right because I have Godwin, but I would have taken Cooks ahead of him and like Golladay quite a bit, think he was gone too.

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I reached for James Washington (not too far, got him in the 11th). The upside was too much for me to ignore.

 

Also reached for Ekeler in the 5th cuz I took Gordon in the 3rd, had to get that peace of mind.

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2 hours ago, herschel said:

I believe these are called “targets”,  not “reaches”.  

My reach so to speak was Conner. Not many people seem to be taking him that early. The rest of the picks was me just exchanging strategy with the other poster who was thinking Conner at 6 as well. 

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15 minutes ago, XG87 said:

 

Also reached for Ekeler in the 5th cuz I took Gordon in the 3rd, had to get that peace of mind.

 

FAIL on that with theJackson involvement. 

oooffffaahhhh!

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2 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Godwin over Cooks, Edelman, Lockett, Golladay, and the like. Dude is going to be a WR1 this year. Count on it. 

 

I like Godwin over everyone of those but Cooks. That said, I don't think there's much of a gap between the two.

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