MilesBridgesBetterThanZion

Terry Rozier 2019-2020 Outlook

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Point league Terry Rozier:

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Can’t wait to watch this guy suit up for the Hornets. Will a lot of people have to eat their words, or will he be the next Dennis Schroder/Reggie Jackson? I think i'm willing to take a chance on this guy in all leagues. Thoughts?

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I like his steal numbers (~1.4 per-36), but he's never in his career even shot 40% (highest was 39.5%) and even if you extrapolate to his per-36 assist #s, he only averages 4.2 assists. Rebounding is decent but if he can't shoot or give me assists, and he doesn't provide elite steals (not on the level of Smart or DeJounte) he doesn't seem like a great target.

Just because of his situation he's probably ahead of guys like Teague, Delon, FVV, Smart, & Lonzo for me, but at the picks where I'm usually looking at those PGs Rozier is long gone, so I don't think he'll fall to me. 

If I want a guy to kill my efficiency but give me scoring, steals, and a few assists I'd probably rather just draft DSJ in the 110s - 120s.

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He is my sleeper! I hope he returns TOP75 value.

Edited by apatas
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5 hours ago, s-kayos said:

I like his steal numbers (~1.4 per-36), but he's never in his career even shot 40% (highest was 39.5%) and even if you extrapolate to his per-36 assist #s, he only averages 4.2 assists. Rebounding is decent but if he can't shoot or give me assists, and he doesn't provide elite steals (not on the level of Smart or DeJounte) he doesn't seem like a great target.

Just because of his situation he's probably ahead of guys like Teague, Delon, FVV, Smart, & Lonzo for me, but at the picks where I'm usually looking at those PGs Rozier is long gone, so I don't think he'll fall to me. 

If I want a guy to kill my efficiency but give me scoring, steals, and a few assists I'd probably rather just draft DSJ in the 110s - 120s.

I agree with you there.  I've run his numbers per 36, added a little due to high usage, and still can't justify taking him where others are.  Even with 30% usage and 30 mpg I don't see anything more than: 16/5/4 with 2.6 threes, 1.3 steals.  One good thing about him, in addition to opportunity, is that a relatively high portion of his scoring is from deep.  Other than that, he's not that good of a defender or passer.  He's going to go something like 5/13 from the field, which will just destroy your FG%.   2 TO.   He's even a mediocre FT% shooter, sub 80%.  I think that puts him around 80th, higher if you punt FG%.  That's about where people are picking him.  You can break even on him if you punt FG/TO.   

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I might take him in a punt fg%, but if I've decided to punt fg%, I probably have like Harden and Trae or something to that effect in the first two rounds.  When am I taking a third PG?  I feel like by the time I'd be looking for that, he'd already be gone.

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7 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

I might take him in a punt fg%, but if I've decided to punt fg%, I probably have like Harden and Trae or something to that effect in the first two rounds.  When am I taking a third PG?  I feel like by the time I'd be looking for that, he'd already be gone.

Yeah, I had that thought as well.  He’s the opposite side of the coin to Adams in that regard.  Adams is a second round player in punt Ft but you’re probably punting FT bc you picked someone like Giannis and Drummond or LeBron and Gobert.  You probably wouldn’t then draft Adams in the third bc Capela is better than him and you can’t have all bigs.  

 

Conversely, I agree that if you draft Harden and Trae then you’re not really looking for a third small. 

 

I just don’t know where Rozier fits in.  I think someone will pick him in the 6th and 7th if they need a PG but I think that’s dumb.  Why not just punt assists at that point.  I’m not targeting Rozier at all.  Some people think he will be a “sleeper” but I think the opposite.  He’s been drafted in the sixth/seventh in my leagues and I don’t think that’s good value.  Could optimistically break even, though I don’t think he has a chance in hell at top 50.

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I'm sure he could be useful in a punt FG, but I don't really know when or how that would be.  I can see it, but I don't think it's very common.

Maybe you take a guy in your first pick that's neutral in that regard (Steph, maybe he falls to 4), then your second pick is a punt FG guy and two rounds later you end up with Kevin Love.  Suddenly you're looking good at other cats and you're like hmm, it's the 8th round and I think I'm punting FG, Rozier kinda "fell" (from his too-high ADP), I'll take him.

It's not likely and I wouldn't target him, but I can think of a few situations where I might want him. 

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It looks he is undervalued here? In RW forum members H2H mock draft Rozier was taken at 7th round as a 80th pick. Also I saw one season prediction where he is 77th. I can say I plan to draft him if Rozier is available at 8th round, but as I see here from other comments it looks like too early?

Edited by apatas

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1 hour ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

He's 25, is his shooting improving a complete non-possibility at this point?

It’s unlikely to improve if he’s going to be their best scorer and the defense is more focused on him.  Anything is possible but it’s also not a given that anyone 25 and younger will keep improving for no other reason than that they’re young. 

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5 hours ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

He's 25, is his shooting improving a complete non-possibility at this point?

 

Maybe being the unquestioned starter every game and the confidence boost he could get from that will help.  It is possible.  But with how bad this team is going to be, I don't see an efficient year.  I expect a lot of 7/18 and 8/21 games from him.  

I like Rozier, but he is going to shoot FG%'s into oblivion.

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26 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Well, he's a lot more efficient than I thought he would be.

Against the grizzlies he better be 

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I'm skeptical about a breakout season.. I think he could be precious to own in some game but people convinced he'll make same Kemba Walker's numbers are wrong

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37 minutes ago, LosingEffort said:

I'm skeptical about a breakout season.. I think he could be precious to own in some game but people convinced he'll make same Kemba Walker's numbers are wrong

Where are you seeing people who expect Rozier to have the same numbers as Kemba?

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1 hour ago, LosingEffort said:

I'm skeptical about a breakout season.. I think he could be precious to own in some game but people convinced he'll make same Kemba Walker's numbers are wrong

Kemba numbers? Haven't seen that anywhere. I have him on a couple teams where I am a hard punt fg/to. Most projections have him at something like 18/6/5.5/1.4 with 2.5 3's. FG% won't be good but anyone drafting him knows that. There's a little upside in there if he improves some things but it's not an expectation of mine. Also, things I like is he will have the ball in his hands a ton on that team, someone on there has to score/make plays, and he's locked into big minutes. 

Edited by HK-47

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Quote

 

James Borrego wants to manage Terry Rozier's minutes this season.

"We are going to have to feel this out with Terry," Borrego said of Rozier's workload. "These are minutes that he’s not accustomed to playing and these are new for him, so I’m just going to have to read it on the fly. We’re just going to have to learn through this and I’m going to see how many minutes he can handle." Rozier has never averaged more than 25.9 minutes per game over an entire season, but he's still only 25 years old, so he should be able to handle a heavy workload. However, it sounds like he may find an early seat on the bench during blowouts.

 

 

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On 10/22/2019 at 11:36 AM, LosingEffort said:

I'm skeptical about a breakout season.. I think he could be precious to own in some game but people convinced he'll make same Kemba Walker's numbers are wrong

If your in points leagues where FG% doesn't matter, or are punting it in a category league, this guy should be gold. Yea, probably still not Kemba Walker, but still plenty of stats just via being a looter in a riot

Edited by Dominator83

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I'm not overly concerned about his minutes; I would still expect him to get at least 30 most nights and maybe ramp up from there depending on conditioning. His usage should be quite high regardless.

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42 minutes ago, Nishinga said:

 

 

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What about that statement is concerning? Just a coach saying that he believes in his new PG, but wants to stagger his minutes so it's not too much too soon. 

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3 hours ago, TheBoondocks said:

What about that statement is concerning? Just a coach saying that he believes in his new PG, but wants to stagger his minutes so it's not too much too soon. 

Well he doesn't say anything about believing in him lol just that he doesn't know if he's ready for the heavy minutes people expect from a #1 option. And Rozier's appeal is volume-driven, so any limit on that is a drag.

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