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Buy Low / Sell High 2019

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48 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

I personally wouldn't. I guess it depends on how deep your league is though. He's sitting as a FA in my full PPR 10 teamer if that tells you anything

Same. Someone just dropped him this morning in one of my Yahoo Pro leagues.

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I've been doing some number diving out of boredom and want to make some arguments as to why some players are good buy lows/sell highs. I tend to not over value advanced analytics but its interesting to break down. 

some vocab I copy/pasted off noextrapoints.com to save time. 

 

RACR – receiver air conversion ratio 

The formula is: RACR = Receiving Yards / Air Yards

This number combines YAC and depth of target to form a more complete picture of efficiency.

A “good” RACR varies, but roughly speaking, an efficient player’s ratio is 1.0 or higher.

 aDOT – average depth of target

Air Yards-  the total yards thrown to a player (including incomplete passes). The value in high air yards is INTENT (opportunity for production).

 

Okay, so based off these two metrics we can get an pretty decent idea of who is potentially under preforming or over preforming. Typically the lower the aDOT the higher the efficiency (RACR), BUT there are players that have an exceptionally high aDOT combined with a very high RACR three weeks into the season (SELL HIGH PLAYERS). We also have players with a high aDOT (getting the looks down the field, much more valuable for fantasy) but a low RACR- the opportunities are there but for various reasons, the targets haven't connected (POTENTIALLY BUY LOW PLAYERS).

 

Some examples of these principals applied:

2018 Ryan Switzer- 43 targets 36 receptions, aDOT- 3.4yards (nothing downfield),  RACR- 1.72 (highly efficient)

2018 John Brown-  97 targets, 42 receptions, aDOT- 16.1yards(bombs), RACR- 0.46 (highly inefficient)

 

Simply put, the higher the aDOT, the "less efficient the receiver" and vise vera.. you guys get it. 

 

Then you have the fantasy goldmines that combine a HIGH aDOT with a HIGH efficiency rating. 

Example:

2018 Tyler Lockett- 67 targets, 55 receptions, aDOT- 13.6 yards, RACR- 1.07 (6th highest out of receivers w 50+ targets, highest aDOT in the top 5- Kupp with 8.1yards)

2018 T.Y. Hilton- 118 targets, 74 receptions, aDOT- 11.1 yards, RACR- 0.95.

 

MY ARGUMENT- a high aDOT and high RACR are not friends, unless a player has an all-time efficient season like Lockett's or is an elite tier receiver like Hilton that production+volume is not sustainable/a drop in RACR at low volume= not a valuable WR. 

 

and i know, its only been three weeks... i get it. 

these players could just be in for amazing season and sustain this crazy efficiency but i don't buy it. Many of the players are already clear sell highs in my eyes and are typically the late draft picks that are simply over preforming. If you can get a proven player that is producing similar value or a buy low, do it.

 

SELL HIGH WR's ( or players to bump down in your value rankings): 

D.J. Chark- 18 targets, 15 receptions, aDOT- 14.2, RACR- 1.08 

Phillip Dorsett- 14 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.6, RACR- 1.26 (there is some carryover of insane efficiency from last year with Dorsett, this one feels a bit more sustainable?).

Demarcus Robinson- 12 targets, 10 receptions, aDOT- 17.6, RACR- 1.02 (sell high for obvious reasons, his production will drop.. fast). His volume isn't anything to write home about and is boasted by chunk plays.

Sutton- 22 targets, 16, aDOT- 11.5, RACR- 0.97

John Ross- just get anything for him, last years RACR was 0.25 and he's sitting a clean 0.94.. his efficiency will plummet and AJ will take looks away soon.. throw much in a trade. 

 

these WR's have the opportunity (high in air yards, high aDOT- the valuable targets) and could get a bump in efficiency as the season goes on.

BUY LOW WR's (or player who's value could get a bump):

 

Kenny Golladay- 27 targets, 14 receptions, aDOT- 13.8, RACR- 0.47, 373 air yards. Last year: aDOT- 12.9, RACR- 0.7. The efficiency will get a bump as the season goes, buy low.

Will Fuller- 17 targets, 11 receptions, aDOT- 18.2, RACR- 0.52, 310 air yards. Fuller has bumped up in efficiency every season he's played (0.42, 0.53, 0.76), I believe in the talent, the opportunity is definitely there, buy low as a WR3 that should get better as the season goes on. 

Robert Woods- 23 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.1, RACR- 0.62, 232 air yards. Another guy that is at a lower efficiency than his career numbers ( his past two seasons in LA his RACR- 0.82, 0.88). 

Devante Parker- 20 targets, 6 receptions, aDOT- 21.6, RACR- 0.3, 433 air yards( #4 in the league). Now this is more for 12+ leagues with extra flex spots or 3 WR spots. Devante is not good but the opportunity to absolutely boom.. is there. Boom or bust guy that will connect on some of those bombs soon and get more attention. The efficiency is just too low to not go up a touch.  

Hollywood Brown- 27 targets, 14 catches- aDOT-17.3, RACR- 0.61. The big thing here is the air yards (#3 in the league), Hollywood gets the valuable down the field work and has already broke out but if an owner is down on him after week 3, try to get him with say... a D.J. Chark? 

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3 minutes ago, Bringthesonicsback said:

I've been doing some number diving out of boredom and want to make some arguments as to why some players are good buy lows/sell highs. I tend to not over value advanced analytics but its interesting to break down. 

some vocab I copy/pasted off noextrapoints.com to save time. 

 

RACR – receiver air conversion ratio 

The formula is: RACR = Receiving Yards / Air Yards

This number combines YAC and depth of target to form a more complete picture of efficiency.

A “good” RACR varies, but roughly speaking, an efficient player’s ratio is 1.0 or higher.

 aDOT – average depth of target

Air Yards-  the total yards thrown to a player (including incomplete passes). The value in high air yards is INTENT (opportunity for production).

 

Okay, so based off these two metrics we can get an pretty decent idea of who is potentially under preforming or over preforming. Typically the lower the aDOT the higher the efficiency (RACR), BUT there are players that have an exceptionally high aDOT combined with a very high RACR three weeks into the season (SELL HIGH PLAYERS). We also have players with a high aDOT (getting the looks down the field, much more valuable for fantasy) but a low RACR- the opportunities are there but for various reasons, the targets haven't connected (POTENTIALLY BUY LOW PLAYERS).

 

Some examples of these principals applied:

2018 Ryan Switzer- 43 targets 36 receptions, aDOT- 3.4yards (nothing downfield),  RACR- 1.72 (highly efficient)

2018 John Brown-  97 targets, 42 receptions, aDOT- 16.1yards(bombs), RACR- 0.46 (highly inefficient)

 

Simply put, the higher the aDOT, the "less efficient the receiver" and vise vera.. you guys get it. 

 

Then you have the fantasy goldmines that combine a HIGH aDOT with a HIGH efficiency rating. 

Example:

2018 Tyler Lockett- 67 targets, 55 receptions, aDOT- 13.6 yards, RACR- 1.07 (6th highest out of receivers w 50+ targets, highest aDOT in the top 5- Kupp with 8.1yards)

2018 T.Y. Hilton- 118 targets, 74 receptions, aDOT- 11.1 yards, RACR- 0.95.

 

MY ARGUMENT- a high aDOT and high RACR are not friends, unless a player has an all-time efficient season like Lockett's or is an elite tier receiver like Hilton that production+volume is not sustainable/a drop in RACR at low volume= not a valuable WR. 

 

and i know, its only been three weeks... i get it. 

these players could just be in for amazing season and sustain this crazy efficiency but i don't buy it. Many of the players are already clear sell highs in my eyes and are typically the late draft picks that are simply over preforming. If you can get a proven player that is producing similar value or a buy low, do it.

 

SELL HIGH WR's ( or players to bump down in your value rankings): 

D.J. Chark- 18 targets, 15 receptions, aDOT- 14.2, RACR- 1.08 

Phillip Dorsett- 14 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.6, RACR- 1.26 (there is some carryover of insane efficiency from last year with Dorsett, this one feels a bit more sustainable?).

Demarcus Robinson- 12 targets, 10 receptions, aDOT- 17.6, RACR- 1.02 (sell high for obvious reasons, his production will drop.. fast). His volume isn't anything to write home about and is boasted by chunk plays.

Sutton- 22 targets, 16, aDOT- 11.5, RACR- 0.97

John Ross- just get anything for him, last years RACR was 0.25 and he's sitting a clean 0.94.. his efficiency will plummet and AJ will take looks away soon.. throw much in a trade. 

 

these WR's have the opportunity (high in air yards, high aDOT- the valuable targets) and could get a bump in efficiency as the season goes on.

BUY LOW WR's (or player who's value could get a bump):

 

Kenny Golladay- 27 targets, 14 receptions, aDOT- 13.8, RACR- 0.47, 373 air yards. Last year: aDOT- 12.9, RACR- 0.7. The efficiency will get a bump as the season goes, buy low.

Will Fuller- 17 targets, 11 receptions, aDOT- 18.2, RACR- 0.52, 310 air yards. Fuller has bumped up in efficiency every season he's played (0.42, 0.53, 0.76), I believe in the talent, the opportunity is definitely there, buy low as a WR3 that should get better as the season goes on. 

Robert Woods- 23 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.1, RACR- 0.62, 232 air yards. Another guy that is at a lower efficiency than his career numbers ( his past two seasons in LA his RACR- 0.82, 0.88). 

Devante Parker- 20 targets, 6 receptions, aDOT- 21.6, RACR- 0.3, 433 air yards( #4 in the league). Now this is more for 12+ leagues with extra flex spots or 3 WR spots. Devante is not good but the opportunity to absolutely boom.. is there. Boom or bust guy that will connect on some of those bombs soon and get more attention. The efficiency is just too low to not go up a touch.  

Hollywood Brown- 27 targets, 14 catches- aDOT-17.3, RACR- 0.61. The big thing here is the air yards (#3 in the league), Hollywood gets the valuable down the field work and has already broke out but if an owner is down on him after week 3, try to get him with say... a D.J. Chark? 

Agree with everything except Dj Chark and Devante Parker. Chark will get even better. He is Minshews go to guy. Parker will get opportunities but he doesn’t have the ability to get him the ball. Preston Williams was targeted 12x last week and only caught 4 bc of how bad there Rosen/ Fitz are

 

Also doubt that you can buy low on Hollywood Brown.

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Just now, babyfaceassasin said:

Agree with everything except Dj Chark and Devante Parker. Chark will get even better. He is Minshews go to guy. Parker will get opportunities but he doesn’t have the ability to get him the ball. Preston Williams was targeted 12x last week and only caught 4 bc of how bad there Rosen/ Fitz are

 

Also doubt that you can buy low on Hollywood Brown.

Chark will have a Lockett-like efficient season with a rookie QB? i don't see it. Now if Chark gets 10+ targets consistently.. w that volume bump, who cares about the efficiency. He'll be a monster.

I agree with the Parker take but IF, somehow.. Rosen can take a tiny step forward and connect on some of those. He's quickly relevant in deeper leagues. Just wanted to point out the opportunity he has. Same goes for Williams, who I like a lot more. 

"he's a rookie that played trash defenses and is coming back down to earth" .. lol just gotta present it correctly. 

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8 hours ago, Bringthesonicsback said:

I've been doing some number diving out of boredom and want to make some arguments as to why some players are good buy lows/sell highs. I tend to not over value advanced analytics but its interesting to break down. 

some vocab I copy/pasted off noextrapoints.com to save time. 

 

RACR – receiver air conversion ratio 

The formula is: RACR = Receiving Yards / Air Yards

This number combines YAC and depth of target to form a more complete picture of efficiency.

A “good” RACR varies, but roughly speaking, an efficient player’s ratio is 1.0 or higher.

 aDOT – average depth of target

Air Yards-  the total yards thrown to a player (including incomplete passes). The value in high air yards is INTENT (opportunity for production).

 

Okay, so based off these two metrics we can get an pretty decent idea of who is potentially under preforming or over preforming. Typically the lower the aDOT the higher the efficiency (RACR), BUT there are players that have an exceptionally high aDOT combined with a very high RACR three weeks into the season (SELL HIGH PLAYERS). We also have players with a high aDOT (getting the looks down the field, much more valuable for fantasy) but a low RACR- the opportunities are there but for various reasons, the targets haven't connected (POTENTIALLY BUY LOW PLAYERS).

 

Some examples of these principals applied:

2018 Ryan Switzer- 43 targets 36 receptions, aDOT- 3.4yards (nothing downfield),  RACR- 1.72 (highly efficient)

2018 John Brown-  97 targets, 42 receptions, aDOT- 16.1yards(bombs), RACR- 0.46 (highly inefficient)

 

Simply put, the higher the aDOT, the "less efficient the receiver" and vise vera.. you guys get it. 

 

Then you have the fantasy goldmines that combine a HIGH aDOT with a HIGH efficiency rating. 

Example:

2018 Tyler Lockett- 67 targets, 55 receptions, aDOT- 13.6 yards, RACR- 1.07 (6th highest out of receivers w 50+ targets, highest aDOT in the top 5- Kupp with 8.1yards)

2018 T.Y. Hilton- 118 targets, 74 receptions, aDOT- 11.1 yards, RACR- 0.95.

 

MY ARGUMENT- a high aDOT and high RACR are not friends, unless a player has an all-time efficient season like Lockett's or is an elite tier receiver like Hilton that production+volume is not sustainable/a drop in RACR at low volume= not a valuable WR. 

 

and i know, its only been three weeks... i get it. 

these players could just be in for amazing season and sustain this crazy efficiency but i don't buy it. Many of the players are already clear sell highs in my eyes and are typically the late draft picks that are simply over preforming. If you can get a proven player that is producing similar value or a buy low, do it.

 

SELL HIGH WR's ( or players to bump down in your value rankings): 

D.J. Chark- 18 targets, 15 receptions, aDOT- 14.2, RACR- 1.08 

Phillip Dorsett- 14 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.6, RACR- 1.26 (there is some carryover of insane efficiency from last year with Dorsett, this one feels a bit more sustainable?).

Demarcus Robinson- 12 targets, 10 receptions, aDOT- 17.6, RACR- 1.02 (sell high for obvious reasons, his production will drop.. fast). His volume isn't anything to write home about and is boasted by chunk plays.

Sutton- 22 targets, 16, aDOT- 11.5, RACR- 0.97

John Ross- just get anything for him, last years RACR was 0.25 and he's sitting a clean 0.94.. his efficiency will plummet and AJ will take looks away soon.. throw much in a trade. 

 

these WR's have the opportunity (high in air yards, high aDOT- the valuable targets) and could get a bump in efficiency as the season goes on.

BUY LOW WR's (or player who's value could get a bump):

 

Kenny Golladay- 27 targets, 14 receptions, aDOT- 13.8, RACR- 0.47, 373 air yards. Last year: aDOT- 12.9, RACR- 0.7. The efficiency will get a bump as the season goes, buy low.

Will Fuller- 17 targets, 11 receptions, aDOT- 18.2, RACR- 0.52, 310 air yards. Fuller has bumped up in efficiency every season he's played (0.42, 0.53, 0.76), I believe in the talent, the opportunity is definitely there, buy low as a WR3 that should get better as the season goes on. 

Robert Woods- 23 targets, 13 receptions, aDOT- 10.1, RACR- 0.62, 232 air yards. Another guy that is at a lower efficiency than his career numbers ( his past two seasons in LA his RACR- 0.82, 0.88). 

Devante Parker- 20 targets, 6 receptions, aDOT- 21.6, RACR- 0.3, 433 air yards( #4 in the league). Now this is more for 12+ leagues with extra flex spots or 3 WR spots. Devante is not good but the opportunity to absolutely boom.. is there. Boom or bust guy that will connect on some of those bombs soon and get more attention. The efficiency is just too low to not go up a touch.  

Hollywood Brown- 27 targets, 14 catches- aDOT-17.3, RACR- 0.61. The big thing here is the air yards (#3 in the league), Hollywood gets the valuable down the field work and has already broke out but if an owner is down on him after week 3, try to get him with say... a D.J. Chark? 

 

Amazing post. Thank you.

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Sell high: Melvin Gordon

Buy high: Ekeler

 

based on the mood in the Ekeler thread, Melvin Gordon is coming back to be the backup in a RBBC and Coach Lynn is a liar. 

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Just now, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Sell high: Melvin Gordon

Buy high: Ekeler

 

based on the mood in the Ekeler thread, Melvin Gordon is coming back to be the backup in a RBBC and Coach Lynn is a liar. 

No need to go bashing about Ekeler in every single thread.

If you need a reminder on how nobody knows a jack s--- about fantasy foosball. 

Do you need a reminder on how you were all up drooling over Trent Richardson?

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4 minutes ago, Szer0 said:

No need to go bashing about Ekeler in every single thread.

If you need a reminder on how nobody knows a jack s--- about fantasy foosball. 

Do you need a reminder on how you were all up drooling over Trent Richardson?

A follower! Man, that takes me back! Thank you. Loved me some Trent Richardson. That is a fact! Can’t win them all. Sometimes you miss. Just like this RBBC nonsense in LAC! 

Edited by Fantasy Gooroo

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Fournette is probably the top one for me. His usage is phenomenal and some owners may be tired of waiting for him to have a good week. 

On 9/24/2019 at 9:30 PM, buckets88 said:

Conner a buy low? Offer lockett or ajones?

Conner's a disaster. He was the product of a very good offense that is now well below average. I'd almost rather just Jones. 

On 9/25/2019 at 3:05 AM, LacesOut said:

Robert Woods

I like the idea, my only concern is the offense just doesn't quite look the same, and Kupp is clearly who Goff is looking for. Should be able to get him dirt cheap though. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL
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What do you guys think McLaurin or Kirk could be traded for?  Anyone pull the trigger trade wise recently on either?  Wondering their value. Could use a buy low RB possibly with Jacobs and Kerryon not exactly lighting the world on fire for me in PPR

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55 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Conner's a disaster. He was the product of a very good offense that is now well below average. I'd almost rather just Jones.

 what? He was the product of a very good blocking (line and fullback). They traded for blocking TE from Seahawks and his fullback Nix will be back week 5. Model buy low.

As for McLaurin or Kirk...have both and looking to trade them after tomorrow games as I think both should have solid games

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1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Conner's a disaster. He was the product of a very good offense that is now well below average. I'd almost rather just Jones.

 

I prefer Jones and I've never even liked him. Conner may lead the league in percentage of owners missing the playoffs this season, putting aside high picks injured for long periods of time like Barkley.

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11 minutes ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

What do you guys think McLaurin or Kirk could be traded for?  Anyone pull the trigger trade wise recently on either?  Wondering their value. Could use a buy low RB possibly with Jacobs and Kerryon not exactly lighting the world on fire for me in PPR

Traded McLaurin/Damien Williams for Robert Woods/Rashaad Penny.....Standard league

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16 minutes ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

I'm trying to sell high on Mike Evans as his matchups the next several weeks do not indicate a breakout. 

 

What does selling high on Evans mean though? Which type of WR/RB would you accept?

Most probably drafted him in the early 3rd....you aren't going to get a WR drafted ahead of him. Do you trade him for Amari Cooper/ Tyler Lockett/ Cooper Kupp?

 

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1 minute ago, meverett85 said:

 

What does selling high on Evans mean though? Which type of WR/RB would you accept?

Most probably drafted him in the early 3rd....you aren't going to get a WR drafted ahead of him. Do you trade him for Amari Cooper/ Tyler Lockett/ Cooper Kupp?

 

 

It was an auction draft and i spent $29 for him so Im looking for RB1/2 and WR1/2.

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Just now, 24/7fantasysports said:

 

It was an auction draft and i spent $29 for him so Im looking for RB1/2 and WR1/2.

 

I suppose somebody considers giving you a Marlon Mack or a Derrick Henry......might be able to get a James Conner? Would you pull the trigger for these types of players?

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6 minutes ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

 

It was an auction draft and i spent $29 for him so Im looking for RB1/2 and WR1/2.

That seems optimistic.

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I just bought low on Matt Breida...I think.  

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46 minutes ago, 24/7fantasysports said:

I'm trying to sell high on Mike Evans as his matchups the next several weeks do not indicate a breakout. 

 

What match ups exactly are making you think Evans can't put up WR1 numbers?

 

Saints, Panthers, Titans, Seahawks, Cardinals...none of these teams are shutting down passing attacks.  The Titans have probably done the best against the pass out of all of those teams, but they haven't exactly been going against any good offenses these first 3 weeks.

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10 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I just bought low on Matt Breida...I think.  

 

You aren't worried about the 15 other RBs on that squad?

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25 minutes ago, Hero202 said:

 

What match ups exactly are making you think Evans can't put up WR1 numbers?

 

Saints, Panthers, Titans, Seahawks, Cardinals...none of these teams are shutting down passing attacks.  The Titans have probably done the best against the pass out of all of those teams, but they haven't exactly been going against any good offenses these first 3 weeks.

 

He will be facing shadow coverage over the next 3 weeks starting tomorrow against the Rams (Talib) before heading into the Bye week. He will have Lattimore next week then Bradberry of the Panthers again. 

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54 minutes ago, meverett85 said:

 

I suppose somebody considers giving you a Marlon Mack or a Derrick Henry......might be able to get a James Conner? Would you pull the trigger for these types of players?

 

Mack yes.

Henry no.

Conner no. 

I have him in a sent offer for Zeke, Robert Woods, and McLaurin for my Evans, Saquon, and Mixon. 

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