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Raheem Mostert 2019 Outlook

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Shanny Jr better wake the heck up and give this dude the majority touches. He is electric out there. 

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13 minutes ago, ginocan said:

Shanny Jr better wake the heck up and give this dude the majority touches. He is electric out there. 

 

Translates roughly as:  Shanny Jr better wake the heck up and give this dude the majority touches.  It's fantasy playoffs and I can't NOT start this man.

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Just now, Trifecta said:

 

Translates roughly as:  Shanny Jr better wake the heck up and give this dude the majority touches.  It's fantasy playoffs and I can't NOT start this man.


tldr:

Start this guy!!! I am desperate!!!! 

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I think people here may be overthinking the RBBC bit and how the 49ers use their RBs, I've been invested in this backfield all season and have watched a lot of 49ers games as a result... Which isn't to say there is a perfectly defined way these guys are used but there is some tendencies that make it a bit more consistent than it initially may seem.

As I alluded to in a previous post, Matt Breida's role really hasn't changed much at all this season and probably won't going forward, he is the quintessential 1B here.. He is used between the 20's on a lot of stretch plays and on some 3rd downs but not all. When healthy he typically plays about 30% of snaps regardless of which other RBs are being used and almost never sees the field in the red zone (seriously it's crazy how they refuse to use him when they get to that part of the field). His existence in the offense absolutely impacts Coleman/Mostert's touch total but he's not much of a threat to steal a ton of upside from those guys due to his lack of red zone usage.

When assessing Coleman and Mostert's usage you almost have to ignore the middle part of the season as it was clear the 49ers where trying to get Coleman going as their main 1A (with some poor results aside from the Panthers game) and Mostert was an injured afterthought... since then, and really all season, it's well documented that Mostert has vastly outplayed Coleman in the same role (which includes both passing and red zone work) resulting in Coleman playing around 15% of snaps the previous two weeks where Mostert has thrived. Coleman has also absolutely blown his limited opportunities as of late averaging 1.2 and 2 YPC and getting stuffed on a big 3rd and short last week, so to view Coleman as a threat is to view him as a player who still has the talent to produce on Mostert's level, a mindset the 49ers themselves don't currently appear to employ.

Ultimately though in order for Mostert to payoff these next two weeks we still need to bank on a high level of efficiency as the 21 touches he saw against Baltimore probably isn't going to be replicated anytime soon due to Breida's return... we're probably looking at the 12-15 touch range realistically with some red zone opportunities thrown in, so far from a sure thing but easily the highest upside option of the bunch for a team that dominates in the run game. I'm willing to take the gamble here as Mostert has far and away passed the eye test, he looks much more explosive than Coleman and is more than capable at blocking and receiving.. There is totally a chance here where he gets a measly 7 fantasy points (as a lot of RBs are prone to do) but I can't really let the upside sit on my bench for another week... an added bonus is that the 49ers are still trying to salt away the #1 seed in the NFC so there is reason to play their best players the next two weeks (admittedly this week scares me more than next as the Falcons could get blown out from the jump and we see Coleman get extra burn).

Edited by MoonBlaster
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9 minutes ago, ColoWrex said:

Hopefully Shanny means this:

 

 


 

“Raheem’s earned it over these last few weeks,” Shanahan said. “I mean, how many games can you go and how many years can you go averaging six yards a carry?”

 

Shanny-Speak Translation: “As soon as Mostert’s average falls under 6.0 yards per carry, we are going to give Tevin Coleman the next 3 drives.”

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In all seriousness, I really do think Mostert gets the majority of the early game work.  If the 49ers get up big, I think we’ll see a lot of Coleman and Breida in the 2nd half.  Now, hopefully Mostert is a big reason why they got up big... and if he puts up 80 yards and 2 TDs before ceding mop-up duty, I don’t think anyone will complain.

 

These last two weeks where Mostert has shone have been really important close games against tough competition. Shanahan knew he had to use his best players all the time, and right now Mostert is one of them.

 

We do know, however, that he loves to rotate RBs (he even says as much in the article above), and Mostert isn’t going to get 18+ touches in a game where they don’t need him to do that.

 

Our best hope for a monster game is that Atlanta keeps it close... I’m not so sure that will happen though. 

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Even though mixon has done well last few weeks, prob starting this guy over him.  Cant picture him doing anything against an angry NE D.

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18 hours ago, Bish0p said:

Even though mixon has done well last few weeks, prob starting this guy over him.  Cant picture him doing anything against an angry NE D.

I just picked him up for this same reason.  I got lucky that he was available due to shallow benches. 

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On 12/10/2019 at 10:04 AM, MoonBlaster said:

I think people here may be overthinking the RBBC bit and how the 49ers use their RBs, I've been invested in this backfield all season and have watched a lot of 49ers games as a result... Which isn't to say there is a perfectly defined way these guys are used but there is some tendencies that make it a bit more consistent than it initially may seem.

As I alluded to in a previous post, Matt Breida's role really hasn't changed much at all this season and probably won't going forward, he is the quintessential 1B here.. He is used between the 20's on a lot of stretch plays and on some 3rd downs but not all. When healthy he typically plays about 30% of snaps regardless of which other RBs are being used and almost never sees the field in the red zone (seriously it's crazy how they refuse to use him when they get to that part of the field). His existence in the offense absolutely impacts Coleman/Mostert's touch total but he's not much of a threat to steal a ton of upside from those guys due to his lack of red zone usage.

When assessing Coleman and Mostert's usage you almost have to ignore the middle part of the season as it was clear the 49ers where trying to get Coleman going as their main 1A (with some poor results aside from the Panthers game) and Mostert was an injured afterthought... since then, and really all season, it's well documented that Mostert has vastly outplayed Coleman in the same role (which includes both passing and red zone work) resulting in Coleman playing around 15% of snaps the previous two weeks where Mostert has thrived. Coleman has also absolutely blown his limited opportunities as of late averaging 1.2 and 2 YPC and getting stuffed on a big 3rd and short last week, so to view Coleman as a threat is to view him as a player who still has the talent to produce on Mostert's level, a mindset the 49ers themselves don't currently appear to employ.

Ultimately though in order for Mostert to payoff these next two weeks we still need to bank on a high level of efficiency as the 21 touches he saw against Baltimore probably isn't going to be replicated anytime soon due to Breida's return... we're probably looking at the 12-15 touch range realistically with some red zone opportunities thrown in, so far from a sure thing but easily the highest upside option of the bunch for a team that dominates in the run game. I'm willing to take the gamble here as Mostert has far and away passed the eye test, he looks much more explosive than Coleman and is more than capable at blocking and receiving.. There is totally a chance here where he gets a measly 7 fantasy points (as a lot of RBs are prone to do) but I can't really let the upside sit on my bench for another week... an added bonus is that the 49ers are still trying to salt away the #1 seed in the NFC so there is reason to play their best players the next two weeks (admittedly this week scares me more than next as the Falcons could get blown out from the jump and we see Coleman get extra burn).

Great analysis and as a Mostert owner, unfortunately a lot of his great work has come on my bench as I always fear in these situations that I am late to the party and the week I will play him he will get 3 carries for 8 yards and 1 reception for 6.  

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Shannahan says he has earned his role as the top ball carrier. FIRE HIM UP

As long as he doesn't fumble or suck he is an RB2. These situations do make me a bit nervous because they like to balance it out and have more than capable backs on the depth chart but he has been a beast.

This guy is a dynasty steal with Breida a free agent next year.

Edited by affliction

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4 hours ago, AlexxelA said:


How many times does he have to say “I mean...” 

Edited by dlionsfan901

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42 minutes ago, DownSouthWolverine said:

Why does this feel like such a trap?  I mean a lot of his points last week came on a trick play...


While I still like him, this does scare me. Plus the 49ers should kill the falcons, so I could see a revenge game for Tevin Coleman.(unless I don’t play Raheem that is ofc)

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4 minutes ago, jgardner827 said:


While I still like him, this does scare me. Plus the 49ers should kill the falcons, so I could see a revenge game for Tevin Coleman.(unless I don’t play Raheem that is ofc)


 

Any chance you could bench him?

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13 minutes ago, FreakFries said:


 

Any chance you could bench him?


Lmao I talked myself out of starting him, so there you guys go lol. Good luck this week everyone, let's bring home that 🤑🤑!

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4 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

...And after all that talk by Shanahan this week, Coleman got the start. 

 

Yep. Those that started him (myself included) got played, and are screwed.

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3 minutes ago, WayneFontes said:

Rage drop in all formats.

 

Out touched the next back by 10 carries and got a TD.

Not sure you want to drop him especially if you were using him in your flex.

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