IcemanIL

Paul George 2019-2020 Outlook

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48 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

He would have to play at a top 3 level on a per-game basis to have top 20 value at 60 games (there's a very realistic possibility he misses more games than this). That is more than 25% of the season and depending on when your playoffs start, that could equate to missing 40% of your season. 

Even assuming no rust, do you think PG plays 37 mins a game like he did last year? No chance. He'll be closer to 31-32. That is not a game-changer at his ADP, in fact, its a loss. Factor in the complications of shoulder rehab and it becomes clear to me that PG is a DND player. Maybe I am too risk-averse but again, too many red flags here to me to invest an early round pick.

Cmon man DND the 3rd ranked player of last season. Cmon. 

25% doesn't matter so much unless it is the last 25% part. Yeah ok i understand having your late 2nd pick unavailable for the first part can be tough, but if you build a good team around the guy you picked top2 (because this is what will make you draft PG around his ADP) then you can make the playoffs and there you can be a force and regular where you might have finished 5-8 doesn't matter. I have paired Harden with PG for example and come playoff time this should be really really good. The risk with PG is that you need to be experienced enough so you don't miss on your other draft picks. 

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2 hours ago, driss lol said:

bruh tho bruh PG finished #3 overall in 9-cat leagues last season

 

in 37 MPG and not coming off multiple shoulder surgeries. 

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2 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

Cmon man DND the 3rd ranked player of last season. Cmon. 

25% doesn't matter so much unless it is the last 25% part. Yeah ok i understand having your late 2nd pick unavailable for the first part can be tough, but if you build a good team around the guy you picked top2 (because this is what will make you draft PG around his ADP) then you can make the playoffs and there you can be a force and regular where you might have finished 5-8 doesn't matter. I have paired Harden with PG for example and come playoff time this should be really really good. The risk with PG is that you need to be experienced enough so you don't miss on your other draft picks. 

 

See above. 3rd ranked in 37 MPG and not coming off multiple shoulder surgeries.

Also, You're forgetting the load management aspect to his injuries. He will miss game regularly. The clippers playoff schedule is filled with b2b. at this current ADP or even within a round im staying away. 

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8 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

See above. 3rd ranked in 37 MPG and not coming off multiple shoulder surgeries.

Also, You're forgetting the load management aspect to his injuries. He will miss game regularly. The clippers playoff schedule is filled with b2b. at this current ADP or even within a round im staying away. 

I don't think we will see much load management in the end of the season but we see. This is my opinion. Load management can happen to many players so i cannot be drafting on assumptions. I take the risk. There is a case for Embiid, Beal etc and those guys are going way higher but you still might not have them for playoffs.

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It depends.  If it’s roto you can pretty easily chop off 25% of his value and just draft him at his new evaluation.  If you think 3rd rank value is worth $60 then he should still be worth $45 to you.  If you think he is more likely to finish top 15 on a per game basis and that would be worth $45 then be willing to draft him for $30+.  If it’s H2H there’s more risk but more reward.  If you make the playoffs and he plays then it really didn’t matter that he sat early. The number in H2H is too reliant on team build as well as whether or not he plays during the fantasy playoffs to know how much he will be worth.  In snake idk it’s too subjective, there’s situations where I’d draft him but they haven’t arisen yet.  Mostly if I had drafted AD or Towns in the first he’s a perfect fit for punt assists but he hasn’t fallen to 20 in any of my snake drafts.  

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I don't see how he can return a 2nd round value unless he misses exactly 10 games and plays the rest 72 at full speed which I highly doubt

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I don't understand it, in an absolute best-case scenario... he merely is worth his ADP. That is not a good bet to make. There are so many variables against him and the likelihood of him reaching his best-case scenario are slim.

Edited by NoHablaIngles

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My deal is I'm in a keeper auction league. Last year, I got PG for 39$ - a legit steal for the season he had. This year his value has increased to 42$ and with all of the concerns regarding him missed time and shoulder surgeries, I just really don't know if he's worth it. I'm leaning towards keeping him because I'm it's a H2H league and the rest of my keepers are stacked (and with good value too, won the league last season). I'm thinking slot PG into IR, stream that position, and try to nail some cheap picks in my draft. I also had the thought that I could drop him and try to redraft him for less money (we went from a 12 man league to a 10 man, so his value is inherently lower), but I don't have a ton of room to work with budget-wise and I really don't want to get into a bidding war over someone with so many question marks. Mainly, if I dropped him, I just can't see myself finding equal or even close to the same value anywhere else in the draft at the SF position. It's a top heavy position as is, and PG really hit the sweet spot on value for me last year. 

I think bottom line is that he should generally be avoided if possible because there are so many red flags, but in certain scenarios I could see him having elite value as always. Fingers crossed that these ten games missed ARE the extra step needed to get him in shape, and he transitions smoothly back into being a stud. 

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sigh this dude dropped to me at pick 24 (in an IR league) so I paired him with AD. Honestly didn't want to risk it since I  have AD to worry about but if he beasts for 40 games towards the 2nd half of the season, it will have been worth it.

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4 hours ago, snerpy said:

sigh this dude dropped to me at pick 24 (in an IR league) so I paired him with AD. Honestly didn't want to risk it since I  have AD to worry about but if he beasts for 40 games towards the 2nd half of the season, it will have been worth it.

lol i kind of had a similar situation, but earlier doh. someons offering me kemba atm lol. sersiouly contemplating. 

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34 minutes ago, WhatIsThisWizardry said:

lol i kind of had a similar situation, but earlier doh. someons offering me kemba atm lol. sersiouly contemplating. 

 

Personally, I would take that trade, especially if you don't have an IR slot.

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PG has fallen a lot to me at the end of the 2nd and even the 3rd.  I'll take that (almost) every time.

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Drafted him at #30 in a Roto league with IR.  what do you guys think?

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1 hour ago, magic32 said:

Drafted him at #30 in a Roto league with IR.  what do you guys think?

Pretty good. Just be careful not to overplay your bench too much so you can still maximize PG’s games when he returns.

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On 10/20/2019 at 12:42 PM, StifleTower2 said:

It depends.  If it’s roto you can pretty easily chop off 25% of his value and just draft him at his new evaluation.  If you think 3rd rank value is worth $60 then he should still be worth $45 to you.  If you think he is more likely to finish top 15 on a per game basis and that would be worth $45 then be willing to draft him for $30+.  If it’s H2H there’s more risk but more reward.  If you make the playoffs and he plays then it really didn’t matter that he sat early. The number in H2H is too reliant on team build as well as whether or not he plays during the fantasy playoffs to know how much he will be worth.  In snake idk it’s too subjective, there’s situations where I’d draft him but they haven’t arisen yet.  Mostly if I had drafted AD or Towns in the first he’s a perfect fit for punt assists but he hasn’t fallen to 20 in any of my snake drafts.  

 

Fell to me at #26 (after I had already drafted AD), so I did exactly this and paired them up to punt assists.

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On 10/21/2019 at 9:46 AM, Tom Chambers said:

PG has fallen a lot to me at the end of the 2nd and even the 3rd.  I'll take that (almost) every time.

PG will be good after hes back tho and I feel like Kemba is gonna take a step back... thoughts

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PG makes more sense for H2H guys, Roto league I couldn't grab him in the 2nd, even 3rd I'm having trouble just because I hate getting injured players 

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https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/1861344/report-george-to-make-clippers-debut-in-mid-november

"Paul George will be ready to make his Los Angeles Clippers debut in approximately three weeks, league sources told Yahoo's Chris Haynes."

Hallelujah boys! This is great news. No reason we can't hold out for 3ish weeks. I fully expect him to put up borderline 1st round value once he's back.

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6 minutes ago, fabrar said:

https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/1861344/report-george-to-make-clippers-debut-in-mid-november

"Paul George will be ready to make his Los Angeles Clippers debut in approximately three weeks, league sources told Yahoo's Chris Haynes."

Hallelujah boys! This is great news. No reason we can't hold out for 3ish weeks. I fully expect him to put up borderline 1st round value once he's back.

Yes Sir! Hoping for him to justify my 20th pick for him. 

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3 minutes ago, WhiskerFrisker said:

Who could I possibly offer to I make it a fair trade? I tried offering DeRozan before but the owner didn't want him. 

With a mid-November return, I doubt you can get him without offering at least a 2nd round player in return. Derozan is a 5th round player at best. PG was a top 5 fantasy player last year, and will likely be borderline top 10, and might even sneak in there. Especially since Kawhi will miss games due to load management - PG will have to shoulder a lot of the workload.

Edited by fabrar

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Just now, fabrar said:

With a mid-November return, I doubt you can get him without offering at least a 2nd round player in return. PG was a top 5 fantasy player last year, and will likely be borderline top 10, and might even sneak in there. Especially since Kawhi will miss games due to load management - PG will have to shoulder a lot of the workload.

Hmmm. The only second round value players I have are Jrue and Beal. Jrue isn't helping my case out after last night. I didn't offer Beal because there's a chance PG isn't 100% and I don't want to f--- over if Beal continues last season's numbers.

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3 minutes ago, WhiskerFrisker said:

Hmmm. The only second round value players I have are Jrue and Beal. Jrue isn't helping my case out after last night. I didn't offer Beal because there's a chance PG isn't 100% and I don't want to f--- over if Beal continues last season's numbers.

 

Let's keep this clear of AC questions

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27 minutes ago, fabrar said:

https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/1861344/report-george-to-make-clippers-debut-in-mid-november

"Paul George will be ready to make his Los Angeles Clippers debut in approximately three weeks, league sources told Yahoo's Chris Haynes."

Hallelujah boys! This is great news. No reason we can't hold out for 3ish weeks. I fully expect him to put up borderline 1st round value once he's back.

That’s great news!  I still put him around 60 games though.  Miss 9-10 up front then they have back to backs so let’s say he misses another 10 due to that.  Then add in a couple more due to typical bumps and bruises. Yeah, I’d put him around 60.  Still great for us H2H winners.  Fade these next few weeks and forget all about it.  

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