jay_00

Marc Gasol 2019-2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

He's 34 going on 35, won a NBA title, then followed that up with really great performances to win the Fiba World Cup. Still, thats alotta work for a man his age. Even though Kawhi is gone, Ibaka is still there. Should we assume Toronto continues to limits his minutes around 25 mpg, maybe even hold him outta back to backs occasionally? If so, his usage should go up so thats always a plus. Hes played 79 games in back to back years tho, and 70+ four straight seasons. The man just loves to ball instead of sit out. But man, hes getting old.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can see a 12-15/7/3.5-4.5 kinda season for him with a steal and a block a game if he avgs 30 minutes a night but Toronto has mouths to feed in Siakam, Lowry, VanVleet, Ibaka, and OG probably taking on a larger role. I can see a lot of load management for the soon to be 35 year old big man but still a solid pick regardless. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His out-of-position stats makes him valuable. High assists, threes and FT% for a big man. If you have Gasol in your team you can add more bigs who give rebounds and better FG%, but less point guards. I think that Gasol is good piece for balanced team and not for any punt team.

Edited by apatas
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm staying away from Marc this year. Looking at his time with the Raptors last year he was only 90th overall in 9-cat over the entire stretch he played with them. He was also averaging only 25 minutes a game over that stretch.

Sure he may improve on that a bit with more usage now that Kawhi is gone and maybe he's more used to playing with the team after having shared an off-season, but Ibaka and Siakam are still there, and the addition or RHJ could even push Ibaka into more center minutes.

I'm not expecting him to have an entire season of just top 90 value, but still at an ADP of 60 I think I'll pass on him right now.

Edited by qpeeters
typo
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that he will be better than he was last year at Toronto but worse than his historical averages. 14/7/3.5/1/1/1.  Sure his FT is good for a big man so if you’re in roto and trying to avoiding having poor percentages he has value there. But his FG is also poor for a big so you’re just breaking even.  I think he will have a top 75 finish in per game but may sit games.  His upside is also pretty low. It depends on whether you want a high floor/low ceiling or a low floor/high ceiling.  I also don’t want him as my starting center so 6th round is is the earliest I can take him in any format. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/25/2019 at 11:21 AM, StifleTower2 said:

I agree that he will be better than he was last year at Toronto

Based on what? He's 34. He's on the same team. You think they're going to replace Kawhi's touches by feeding Marc Gasol all he can handle? There's 0 reason to expect any sort of bounceback.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since when did his game rely on athleticism and 30 mpg?

Even though TOR is being branded as a rebuild, they’re still a top 4 team in the East. With FVV likely to join the starting line-up along with Marc, Lowry, Anunoby and Siakam - they have a good defensive loadout with 0 ballstoppers. With the exception of OG (because we don’t know what he can really do on offense yet) nobody there will have a problem finding the open man or taking good shots.

To summarize, the team is still very competitive with an ECF ceiling. This is still a better team (system and culture wise) than any Lowry/DDR/JV led one.

Marc will have an expanded role; He isnt just a last minute pop target / defensive anchor that they needed to cover Embiid and Vuc anymore.

There is 0 doubt that he actually gets integrated properly into their schemes, this isn’t post CHA Al Jefferson or post IND David West, he is still a versatile high-IQ impact player.

It would surprise me if they don’t somehow utilize his playmaking on the low block which is easily atleast half his offensive game. (Don’t get it twisted, I don’t mean he’s going to straight up iso in the post)

With all that said, I do expect some rest, early in the season: Dec (16 games) and Jan (15 games) are their most loaded months. So it makes sense to rest him there since he barely got an offseason.

They have 13 B2B games and he will likely miss most if not all of those games.

Assuming health, I expect around 66 games:

15 ppg (46%, 78%), 7 rpg, 4 apg, 1.2 3PM, 1 spg and 1.4 bpg with 2.3 TO.

That’s pretty good value for a pick in the mid-late as your 3rd big man. After all, everyone needs high floor, low ceiling players to compensate for the more exciting picks.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Mikhov said:

Since when did his game rely on athleticism and 30 mpg?

Even though TOR is being branded as a rebuild, they’re still a top 4 team in the East. With FVV likely to join the starting line-up along with Marc, Lowry, Anunoby and Siakam - they have a good defensive loadout with 0 ballstoppers. With the exception of OG (because we don’t know what he can really do on offense yet) nobody there will have a problem finding the open man or taking good shots.

To summarize, the team is still very competitive with an ECF ceiling. This is still a better team (system and culture wise) than any Lowry/DDR/JV led one.

Marc will have an expanded role; He isnt just a last minute pop target / defensive anchor that they needed to cover Embiid and Vuc anymore.

There is 0 doubt that he actually gets integrated properly into their schemes, this isn’t post CHA Al Jefferson or post IND David West, he is still a versatile high-IQ impact player.

It would surprise me if they don’t somehow utilize his playmaking on the low block which is easily atleast half his offensive game. (Don’t get it twisted, I don’t mean he’s going to straight up iso in the post)

With all that said, I do expect some rest, early in the season: Dec (16 games) and Jan (15 games) are their most loaded months. So it makes sense to rest him there since he barely got an offseason.

They have 13 B2B games and he will likely miss most if not all of those games.

Assuming health, I expect around 66 games:

15 ppg (46%, 78%), 7 rpg, 4 apg, 1.2 3PM, 1 spg and 1.4 bpg with 2.3 TO.

That’s pretty good value for a pick in the mid-late as your 3rd big man. After all, everyone needs high floor, low ceiling players to compensate for the more exciting picks.


Thats a little to optimistic for me, I just dont see that happening. Also its odd to ask "when did his game depend on 30 mpg" when hes literally averaged 33-36 mins per game for almost 8 years now. His numbers took a massive nose dive when Toronto gave him only 25 mins so if he continues with that amount of mins, a slight increase in usage will certainly not bump him back near his typical numbers. Based on that i would assume he needs near 30 mins to produce the numbers youre predicting him to get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jay_00 said:


Thats a little to optimistic for me, I just dont see that happening. Also its odd to ask "when did his game depend on 30 mpg" when hes literally averaged 33-36 mins per game for almost 8 years now. His numbers took a massive nose dive when Toronto gave him only 25 mins so if he continues with that amount of mins, a slight increase in usage will certainly not bump him back near his typical numbers. Based on that i would assume he needs near 30 mins to produce the numbers youre predicting him to get.

26 games with Raptors:  9.1/6.7/3.9/ 0.9 3s, 0.9 st, 0.9 bl   (46%,  76%)  in 24.9 min. good for 98th in per game value and 94th in total value.

With Kawhi gone, all he needs is  small increase in  usage, around 10%, to return top 80 value

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They brought him on for the playoffs and didn't need him to play 30+ mpg those last couple of months of the regular season. In the playoffs he averaged 30.6 mpg.

This year they'll need him more in the regular season with Kawhi gone. I expect around 30 mpg.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

26 games with Raptors:  9.1/6.7/3.9/ 0.9 3s, 0.9 st, 0.9 bl   (46%,  76%)  in 24.9 min. good for 98th in per game value and 94th in total value.

With Kawhi gone, all he needs is  small increase in  usage, around 10%, to return top 80 value

 


My point is exactly. The numbers you have predicted for him would easily put him in the top 50. Top 80 is more reasonable. 
 

1 hour ago, LuSamSiam said:

They brought him on for the playoffs and didn't need him to play 30+ mpg those last couple of months of the regular season. In the playoffs he averaged 30.6 mpg.

This year they'll need him more in the regular season with Kawhi gone. I expect around 30 mpg.


See now thats more of a reasonable prediction, to hope he gets 30 mins. I personally dont think he will due to his age combined with his insanely high amount of games played between NBA and FIBA (with hardly any rest). Also, playoffs and regular season are 2 really big differences. Of course he will play more mins in the playoffs, they were pushing for the title. I dont expect them to push a 35 yr old center during the regular season with hardly any rest from last season though, especially when they have Ibaka off the bench.

Edited by jay_00

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got him in the 10th round which I think is a pretty big bargain for him. Should still provide some nice across the board production with a small bump in scoring with Kawhi gone.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking Marc is primed for a bounce back season with higher usage and mins than he was given last RS in Toronto. That might not be the Raptors' original approach heading into the season but I wouldn't be surprised to see their offense stall, thus necessitating a move to running more halfcourt sets through Gasol

 14/7/4 with 2.5 stocks and decent %s in ~28-30 mpg isn't an unrealistic expectation.  A solid 6-7th rd pick in deep leagues for a balanced build 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I own Gasol, but like pretty much everyone else here I am concerned about his lack of playing this year. Is OG on the same level as him this year as far as fantasy performance?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, jwking405 said:

I own Gasol, but like pretty much everyone else here I am concerned about his lack of playing this year. Is OG on the same level as him this year as far as fantasy performance?

They're different players. But Marc will likely have better overall value unless OG takes a big step

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Picked him in the 6th round of a 16 team league. I wasn't planning to but he was there ripe for the picking. I feel the Raptors are going to take it easy on him at the start of the year but see him improving his stats based on what he was getting last year with Kawhi on the team. Let's see today! 

NBA's back!!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How do we feel about Gas after the opener? Yeah it's one game, but I personally took him as more of a 10th round "Wait he's still available?!" pick which kinda renders him a flier, and tonight it was clear the Pels took advantage of his AARP status in pick and rolls. Is it possible he's worth dropping for one of the younger more exciting waiver prospects (Thybulle, the Hornets, etc)? He was a top-30 guy so recently that it feels ridiculous to suggest, but the league is changing rapidly and Ibaka might be a better fit..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, mattshhh said:

How do we feel about Gas after the opener? Yeah it's one game, but I personally took him as more of a 10th round "Wait he's still available?!" pick which kinda renders him a flier, and tonight it was clear the Pels took advantage of his AARP status in pick and rolls. Is it possible he's worth dropping for one of the younger more exciting waiver prospects (Thybulle, the Hornets, etc)? He was a top-30 guy so recently that it feels ridiculous to suggest, but the league is changing rapidly and Ibaka might be a better fit..

I would definitely give it a few games. Gasol is older so he might just take a couple of games to shake off the rust. Like you, I took him in the 10th round as well, and I think he's solid value there. I'm expecting 12/7/4 with a block and a 3 or something to that effect. Solid stats around pick 100

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, mattshhh said:

How do we feel about Gas after the opener? Yeah it's one game, but I personally took him as more of a 10th round "Wait he's still available?!" pick which kinda renders him a flier, and tonight it was clear the Pels took advantage of his AARP status in pick and rolls. Is it possible he's worth dropping for one of the younger more exciting waiver prospects (Thybulle, the Hornets, etc)? He was a top-30 guy so recently that it feels ridiculous to suggest, but the league is changing rapidly and Ibaka might be a better fit..

I think he's beat.  I gambled late on him in a few places.  But Toronto is going small, rightly so due to their personnel.  If they ever play a center it's a timeshare between Gasol and Ibaka.  So suppose Ibaka and Gasol get 16 minutes each and 16 minutes they don't play a center.  I thought they might play him more than the 25 MPG he played in Toronto last year but it doesn't look like it.  He can do better than he did tonight but 10/6/2/1/1/1 looks optimistic.  I wouldn't drop him bc he can still be top 100, but I don't see him helping any teams win a fantasy title.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

he was bad today but he did have a really long run via both playing in the finals then all the way with Spain in the World Championships

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should amend by previous statement, he got 32 minutes tonight.  But that was in part due to overtime.  He won't be this bad generally.  He could get 25 mpg and be top 90.  But my statement about him beat stands, he's not anything more than your 10th best player/filler.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.