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Jonathan Isaac 2019-2020 Outlook

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Pretty curious to see how the young fella pans out. His current ADP seems a tad too high, but if he truly breaks out he's gonna be a beast.

What's your projected line?

Edited by doomz

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He is going to be a 1/1/1 guy this year.  And I am definitely going to watch his preseason closely.

But unless he bumps up the steals (possible) to 1.5 and not be at just 1, or moves ahead in the pecking order and bumps up the scoring (unlikely unless someone got hurt or traded), I think the hype is going to ruin his value.  He will go too soon for it to be worth it.

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On 9/28/2019 at 12:10 AM, Lifschitz said:

Pros:

- young with massive upside for stocks

- good FT and measurements/size show possible growth in FG% coming

- grew to 7 feet tall, if he develops guard skills then upside as a scorer would make him a potentially top 3 round guy. You could have a Durant like type swing if he brought that just based on his physical profile.

Cons:

- bad FG/3 point fg through two years (can dismiss given upside/size)

- adp way too high based on actual stats, his stats aren’t better than several guys listed rounds below him. Leaves little room for gain, you’re banking he absolutely hits his rank mark

- usage rate was a meagre 16.3%, the league average is 19%, and the lowest totals are around 10%, that means he’s not getting the ball much.

Vucevic eats at 28%, Fournier 22%, Gordon 21.8%, augustin 17.8%, so that already shows you Isaac is the 5th option here. Now you mix and match with guys like Ross (career high 24% usage), and bring Markelle Fultz into the fold and it really doesn’t look promising. He already averaged a pretty lowly 8 fga and just 1.8 fta in 26 min, where do you think he’s going from here? He’s not going to suddenly jump from 8 fga to 14 fga, he’s got a ton of chuckers around him. He’s likely to come in at just a slightly higher usage and around 10 fga, so expecting around 11-12 ppg is realistic unless you think they’re trading vucevic, which would sink their team straight back to missing the postseason.

well either he breaks out on a team where hes one of the young up and comers. ppl around him are high on him. either take him or lose out on him. I took the gamble because his breakout year may make a difference. 

He's added weight, hes grown, teammates like him, hes definitely worked on the offseason favorable situation. all good things to gamble on. 

Edited by WhatIsThisWizardry

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He looks amazing in his preseason games so far. With his 3 and D potential, we could be looking at a big time breakout season.

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22 minutes ago, Philzilla said:

He looks amazing in his preseason games so far. With his 3 and D potential, we could be looking at a big time breakout season.


this really doesn’t account for a lot of factors.

he faced Atlanta in this game, Fournier didn’t play, and Aaron Gordon played 7 minutes. 

I still think he’s a decent pick, he has upside, but the sole issue for me is yahoo is totally ruining any value he might have. If he comes out and he’s once again the 7th lowest usage guy on the team (which is entirely possible given all their shoot first players), you could potentially run into an issue where you spent a 5th round draft pick for a guy averaging 10/5/2/1+/1+, and if I can get Bridges two three rounds later he seems like a safer gamble because his role in the offense will be bigger and I can get him later.

Its just too bad yahoo is making you draft Isaac at his absolute ceiling.. if he was on a team where he’ll get more shots I’d be pushing him a lot more.

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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7 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:


this really doesn’t account for a lot of factors.

he faced Atlanta in this game, Fournier didn’t play, and Aaron Gordon played 7 minutes. 

I still think he’s a decent pick, he has upside, but the sole issue for me is yahoo is totally ruining any value he might have. If he comes out and he’s once again the 7th lowest usage guy on the team (which is entirely possible given all their shoot first players), you could potentially run into an issue where you spent a 5th round draft pick for a guy averaging 10/5/2/1+/1+, and if I can get Bridges two three rounds later he seems like a safer gamble because his role in the offense will be bigger and I can get him later.

Its just too bad yahoo is making you draft Isaac at his absolute ceiling.. if he was on a team where he’ll get more shots I’d be pushing him a lot more.

 

I won't be drafting him for scoring.   His value will lie in stocks, boards, without hurting %s or turnovers. 

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Another season, another RW hype, another hope.

This year i am more optimistic for Isaac, especially with the rumors for Gordon trade early in the summer. However with my draft on 20th october, i expect he will be drafted to early.

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3 hours ago, montanski said:

Another season, another RW hype, another hope.

This year i am more optimistic for Isaac, especially with the rumors for Gordon trade early in the summer. However with my draft on 20th october, i expect he will be drafted to early.

 

In the draft I did yesterday for a money league he was drated in the 5th round. Too early for me already :(

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10 hours ago, montanski said:

Another season, another RW hype, another hope.

This year i am more optimistic for Isaac, especially with the rumors for Gordon trade early in the summer. However with my draft on 20th october, i expect he will be drafted to early.

Hopefully last nights stinker slows down the talk until the draft

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I landed him with the 90th pick in the draft (ESPN). To me that seems like reasonable value - I wasn't too comfortable taking him at the eye watering levels seen in most Yahoo drafts.

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Realistically if you aren't punting steals or blocks, this guy is a lynch pin (especially in a punt assists situation). I believe last year he was top 10 in the punt assist build post-ASB. With the added news of more height/muscle, I expect him to rebound more and throw in some paint scores. Targeting him heavy this year. 

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On 10/13/2019 at 1:48 PM, TheBoondocks said:

Realistically if you aren't punting steals or blocks, this guy is a lynch pin (especially in a punt assists situation). I believe last year he was top 10 in the punt assist build post-ASB. With the added news of more height/muscle, I expect him to rebound more and throw in some paint scores. Targeting him heavy this year. 

He was actually 81st in a 9-cat punt assist build after the break, so I wouldn't advise drafting him as a top ten prospect for that build.

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Like this guy a lot from a STOCK standpoint...but I'm having a hard time justifying his ADP, considering we haven't seen him do it in a full season...

If you can get him around ADP 80-100, I think you're great. If you've got to take him at ADP 60 or around there, I think it's a gamble.

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I want him in every league but someone has overpaid or overreached heavily before I even had the chance. Hes been hyped the last 2 years, this is year 3. He's going to definitely be good and I'd love to have him but hes going for $20 and taken 7th round and I've happily passed every time. 

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1 minute ago, johnval1362 said:

I want him in every league but someone has overpaid or overreached heavily before I even had the chance. Hes been hyped the last 2 years, this is year 3. He's going to definitely be good and I'd love to have him but hes going for $20 and taken 7th round and I've happily passed every time. 

 

Isaac finished the last half, 40 games of last season ranking 70th per game on only 28 mins per. Top-70 is a 6th round pick & ~15$ in auction.

I dont understand how you can say you want him in every league but happily pass in the 7th. There is very little risk at that point. Speculating that he improves a little and gets 30 a night justifies at least a small reach for a 22 year old with significant upside.

 

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On 9/28/2019 at 9:16 AM, StifleTower2 said:

Just out of curiosity doesn’t the league average in usage have to be 20%,  by definition?  What, are the cheerleaders chopping the remaining five percent?

 

Can you explain the math on this? Have I been understanding usage wrong all these years?

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7 minutes ago, jsquints said:

 

Isaac finished the last half, 40 games of last season ranking 70th per game on only 28 mins per. Top-70 is a 6th round pick & ~15$ in auction.

I dont understand how you can say you want him in every league but happily pass in the 7th. There is very little risk at that point. Speculating that he improves a little and gets 30 a night justifies at least a small reach for a 22 year old with significant upside.

 

In theory, auction prices and rounds should be consistent but it just doesn't work that way. People overpay for players to fit their builds in auctions and ridiculously overpay for 1st rounders and the guys they want. You also get chances at amazing baragains if you're alert. If isaac is locked in at 6th round value I wouldn't draft him til the 8th because theres likely another 6th round guy still lingering in the 8th. Drafting guys at their ADP doesn't win you championships, there was no bargains for isaac and I only draft bargains. I've been projected top 3 in 6/7 of my leagues this year, and that doesn't come with paying retail price. Even my first rounders I wont pay retail price and that's based off playoff schedule. Auctions and snake are totally different beasts and are not consistent at all. 

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15 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

In theory, auction prices and rounds should be consistent but it just doesn't work that way. People overpay for players to fit their builds in auctions and ridiculously overpay for 1st rounders and the guys they want. You also get chances at amazing baragains if you're alert. If isaac is locked in at 6th round value I wouldn't draft him til the 8th because theres likely another 6th round guy still lingering in the 8th. Drafting guys at their ADP doesn't win you championships, there was no bargains for isaac and I only draft bargains. I've been projected top 3 in 6/7 of my leagues this year, and that doesn't come with paying retail price. Even my first rounders I wont pay retail price and that's based off playoff schedule. Auctions and snake are totally different beasts and are not consistent at all. 

 

If the guy has shown he can deliver ~6th round value on 28 mins, saying the 7th round is a heavy overreach is unrealistic. Why would that not be his floor? Do you foresee some regression? You did come in saying you really liked him.

Usually for high upside players you cant buy them at their floor (or below).

 

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11 minutes ago, jsquints said:

 

If the guy has shown he can deliver ~6th round value on 28 mins, saying the 7th round is a heavy overreach is unrealistic. Why would that not be his floor? Do you foresee some regression? You did come in saying you really liked him.

Usually for high upside players you cant buy them at their floor (or below).

 

I don't believe in his ceiling. In the best case scenario, he reaches top 50 value (my opinion) and only predict a slight increase from last year. Only minutes will help him. The money stats he gives are nice but physically watching him play, I don't see him and am like woh this guy can be good. I see him and am like, he could be a sneaky good fantasy player for 1 1 1 but don't see a heavy breakout as a realistic possibility. While I watch someone like Bryant and think, "damn this dude is talented as hell". I just don't see the immense talent in isaac in real life and think only more minites will help him and those mins aren't guaranteed. I disagree with most about his ceiling. I see slight improvement potential, with breakout being out of the question. 

I came in saying I liked him cuz he was going for $6 last year, didn't realize it would jump so high. Was expecting to snag him for $10 this year and was excited. 

Edited by johnval1362

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5 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

I don't believe in his ceiling. In the best case scenario, he reaches top 50 value (my opinion) and only predict a slight increase from last year. Only minutes will help him. The money stats he gives are nice but physically watching him play, I don't see him and am like woh this guy can be good. I see him and am like, he could be a sneaky good fantasy player for 1 1 1 but don't see a heavy breakout as a realistic possibility. While I watch someone like Bryant and think, "damn this dude is talented as hell". I just don't see the immense talent in isaac in real life and think only more minites will help him and those mins aren't guaranteed. I disagree with most about his ceiling. I see slight improvement potential, with breakout being out of the question. 

I came in saying I liked him cuz he was going for $6 last year, didn't realize it would jump so high. Was expecting to snag him for $10 this year and was excited. 

 

fair enough.

Out of curiosity how high would you reach for Bryant?

I ended up with the pair of them at 56 and 65, but I am 100% sure neither would not have fallen to their next pick in the league I drafted them.

 

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1 hour ago, SirMixalot said:

 

Can you explain the math on this? Have I been understanding usage wrong all these years?

Usage refers to the portion of the possession a player uses for his team, which either results in a turnover or a shot.  People think it includes assists, but traditionally it doesn't.  If you assist someone then that becomes their usage.  It has to equal up to 100%,  because there are 5x players on the court, the league average has to be 20%.  The only way it doesn't is if people are using the term contrary to its academic usage. 

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5 minutes ago, jsquints said:

 

fair enough.

Out of curiosity how high would you reach for Bryant?

I ended up with the pair of them at 56 and 65, but I am 100% sure neither would not have fallen to their next pick in the league I drafted them.

 

In h2h auction, I very happily paid $22 for him. He has a great playoff schedule (important) and is guaranteed all the minutes he wants with no shut down risk. Sky high ceiling. Beal and him are going to be dynamic and I think Bryant is worth taking in the 5th without a doubt, maybe 4th and has a monster ceiling while Isaac's cieling isn't huge. I think you stole Bryant at 56 and you will be very happy with that pick later on. 

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I have Bryant and Isaac too. But 8 drafted in ESPN where the rankings are out of whack. 

 

I got Bryant at 63, and Isaac at 100. Yes.. 100! I'm happy as all hell because my surname is Isaac hahahaha. 

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

Usage refers to the portion of the possession a player uses for his team, which either results in a turnover or a shot.  People think it includes assists, but traditionally it doesn't.  If you assist someone then that becomes their usage.  It has to equal up to 100%,  because there are 5x players on the court, the league average has to be 20%.  The only way it doesn't is if people are using the term contrary to its academic usage. 

But is the usage counted only for a player's time on court with specific 5-man lineups, or for a team's entire possession of the ball over the course of a game, regardless of whether they're on the court or not?

Case in point, in a full game, a team will only have 5 players on court at a time but go 12 players deep for the game... would you count a player's usage as the ratio of their ball usage over 5 or 12? Could that be why league average doesn't equal 20?

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