SicarioSanity

2019 -2020 Punting Thread

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Hi everyone, haven't seen a thread yet where everyone can share their punting strategies come draft night. I have my main money league drafts upcoming and would like to prepare accordingly. For context, I play in deep (14 and 18 Team) 9-Cat H2H leagues. My general strategy is to draft BPA for the first round and pivot to a punt strategy after, depending on my draft slot. Over the year my favorite is punting assists as it is the most effective and easiest to pull of. You will also be naturally strong in TOs so that is a big plus as well. 

What are your punting strategies this year, and who are your first round picks?

From my end - believe that picking early in the first round is straightforward:

AD/KAT - my favorite pillars when punting assists. Plentiful bigman stats on pristine %s. 

Giannis/Steph - punt FT%. We can categorize Lebron here as well. 

Harden - punt FG% and TO. 

Jokic - punt blocks. I pulled this off last year and got first place. Pair him with bigs such as Collins, Sabonis, Valanciunas, Kanter, etc. Add in Brogdon who can give you assists on good %s as well. I think Jokic is the poster boy for punt blocks and you get a great head start in assists and %s to begin with. Certainly one of the easiest players to build around with. 

Lillard - i love doing punt assists with him as you need to fill up your PG slot with a competent player. You can just load up on bigs the next few rounds and you should be in good shape. I prefer him to Kyrie, Embiid, Butler, Kawhi and George simply because he will give you a lot of games. One of my favorite players in fantasy. 

This is where I need more help I guess, picking 14th onwards and implementing a sound punting strategy. I am not a fan of punting 2 categories - some people might be great at it but I like to be competitive in at least 8 cats from the get go. The player choices from 14th to 18th I am considering are:

Vucevic - he is my go to target if I'm picking on these slots. I plan to pair him with Ayton to have 2 20-10 guys right of the gates and punt assists. 

Drummond - I will surely be punting FT% if I draft Drumm, but pairing him and Luka Doncic at the turn seems to be a palatable strategy. 

Kemba - I love him last year, but I think he is due for a universal decrease in stats this year because of better teammates. With that being said, which 2nd rounder can you pair him with? I am thinking you should pair him with a big like Turner, Ayton or Collins and punt assists. 

Holiday - great fantasy player, but I am worried about a shutdown or trade later in the season. What do you guys think?

Gobert - similar to Drummond, pair with Doncic. I like Drummond more though because he has more steals. 

DND for me in this range is Butler (injury), Trae (too risky) and Westbrook (tanks too many categories)

Here are the other players I plan to target in the later rounds:

Bigs who don't tank your FT% - JJJ, Thomas Bryant, Valanciunas, WCJ, Looney. 

Steals and 3s specialists - Mikal Bridges, Marcus Smart, Kent Bazemore, Danny Green, Oubre. 

Big time scorers - Buddy Hield, Zach Lavine (monster season upcoming), TJ Warren. 

Excited to learn all your thoughts here! 

 

 

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I think here is too much punting. When I start draft with KAT, AD, Curry, Jokic or Lillard, I don't even think about to punt anything. Why? I can very easily to collect balanced team also with these starters. Also Vucevic or Kemba. And as I mentioned here early: I collect team, I don't build. If you build then you often use punting. But building means also limited draft possibilities. If you just collect team you are not limited.

Edited by apatas

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32 minutes ago, apatas said:

I think here is too much punting. When I start draft with KAT, AD, Curry, Jokic or Lillard, I don't even think about to punt anything. Why? I can very easily to collect balanced team also with these starters. Also Vucevic or Kemba. And as I mentioned here early: I collect team, I don't build. If you build then you often use punting. But building means also limited draft possibilities. If you just collect team you are not limited.

I hear you, but if you read my post you will realize where I am coming from. It is impossible to build a team that will be competitive in all 9 cats in a H2H league with 14 or 18 teams, unless the league is not competitive. Punting is the only way to go. I don't play roto as well to have more context.

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9 minutes ago, SicarioSanity said:

I hear you, but if you read my post you will realize where I am coming from. It is impossible to build a team that will be competitive in all 9 cats in a H2H league with 14 or 18 teams, unless the league is not competitive. Punting is the only way to go. I don't play roto as well to have more context.

I don't know how many winning weeks in regular season is competitive, but yes, my goal has been always to be at least a little bit competitive in every cat. Ideal option is: 5-6 cats above average, 2-3 cats near average and one (it is usually TO in my case) enough to win 5-7 weeks of 20. That gives me about +10 wins above average which is enough to make playoffs. Of course almost nobody can be above average in all 9 cats, but if the goal is positive (more wins than losses) finish then punt is not needed. I think so.

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5 hours ago, SicarioSanity said:

DND for me in this range is Butler (injury), Trae (too risky) and Westbrook (tanks too many categories)

 

Nice thread, I agree that punting is the way to go in large, competitive leagues.

Curious as to why you think Trae is too risky to draft? 

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2 hours ago, apatas said:

I don't know how many winning weeks in regular season is competitive, but yes, my goal has been always to be at least a little bit competitive in every cat. Ideal option is: 5-6 cats above average, 2-3 cats near average and one (it is usually TO in my case) enough to win 5-7 weeks of 20. That gives me about +10 wins above average which is enough to make playoffs. Of course almost nobody can be above average in all 9 cats, but if the goal is positive (more wins than losses) finish then punt is not needed. I think so.

This may be just be me having the mindset of a H2H player but I aim to win every week in the season and I believe punting is the best method to go under the conditions I play in. I respect your gameplan though, to each his own. 

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58 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

 

Nice thread, I agree that punting is the way to go in large, competitive leagues.

Curious as to why you think Trae is too risky to draft? 

Thanks man. I just feel that in the range Trae is ranked, there are quality bigs which have stat sets which are harder to get in the later rounds like Turner, Ayton, Siakam and Collins. For Trae for example I can just draft bigs first and nab someone like Lavine or CJ later on in the draft. These guys of course do not have assists in the same level as Trae but as I feel that I will be punting assists anyway, it won't matter so much. 

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Picking late in a snake draft really pushes you into a punt this year. I drafted in the 8 spot and decided to take Lebron to punt ft% and go against standard advice of not entering a draft with a preset punt strategy. In the end 4 teams punted FT% in a 12 man league, I didn't get any of the "main" FT bigs but ended with a strong team with other FT punt teams on either side of me in the draft order. (Example - wheel team took Jrue/Gobert at picks 12/13). Variations with LBJ + Drumm/Gobert/Capela + Point guard was available in 90% of mocks at the 8 spot, so I was confident to use it in a low dollar league regardless of what other teams did to start the draft.  

When comparing Lebron to Embiid, Kawhi, PG3, Kyrie, Beal I felt the injury and rest risk was similar for the players in that range (with the exception of Beal) and Lebron had the highest punting upside. So it comes down to preference and Lebron's 11 playoff games in a more competitive conference was a nice bonus even if he rests 1 or 2 games.

The draft went according to plan for a punt FT%/TO build in the first half with picks of LBJ, Doncic, Capela, Lowry, and Favors. The rest of the draft was a scramble trying to recover from snipes and missing targets trying to let players fall an extra round. Added Bagley/McGee and SGA/Delon Wright to shore up PG and C which all fit the punt. 

The best advice I can offer is ignore the "don't plan to punt" mantra and focus your early picks on the difficult/key stats to make your punt work while picking up the leftovers later in the draft. PTS/AST/3/STL are a focus for FT punt versus BLK/REB for a FG punt. With the early run on guards this year, it is extra important to build their stats for punt FT unless you are going to punt 2 or 3 cats. 

(If Lillard/Jokic was available at 8 I was prepared to go balanced but that is rare in competitive leagues.) 

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5 hours ago, apatas said:

I don't know how many winning weeks in regular season is competitive, but yes, my goal has been always to be at least a little bit competitive in every cat. Ideal option is: 5-6 cats above average, 2-3 cats near average and one (it is usually TO in my case) enough to win 5-7 weeks 

If all your late draft picks hit, you can do this. I had a team that had like 127 wins in yahoo last week. I don't remember exactly how many weeks there were, 19? The would've been 127-44.

But you can't draft expecting that, it's just not realistic. I went into that draft punting fg%, blks, and of course TOs, btw

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punt PT/3s/FT% always viable especially at the turn this year. 

I'm likely avoiding PG, Kawhi types this year and not really a fan of grabbing Kyrie, Butler, etc as a late first. 

Wouldn't mind building around a Lebron/Gobert or Drummond or Gobert/Simmons core. 

Plenty of bigs in the mid/late round available that fit the build. 

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The turn is great for punting because there's not much pressure as far as "will he fall?". Let's say you love Booker or Trae but your second round pick is at 16 and you think it's kind of a stretch to grab them there. But you don't know if you can wait for the third round, but you never know. 

All that uncertainty goes away with the turn, you know the guys you're looking at won't be there 22 picks later. So you just draft for your punts and f--- it. It's actually really freeing. 

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Punt assists is my favourite build.  Focus on  percentages and low TOs and you are already strong in 3 categories that can  help you if you have disadvantage in  games played each week.

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7 hours ago, SicarioSanity said:

I aim to win every week in the season.

Oh my God, I have never seen in any league where I have played somebody to be as dominant. Actually I think this goal is impossible to complete.

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This is probably the best year to punt assists due to the surplus of bigs, and the deficit of point guards, which is almost never the case.  

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And the average AST/game for top 150 PGs is around 5. So there is a large volume of PGs you can find that are still only "average" for their position and therefore lose minimal value across their peers when punting AST. Including most of the mid-round PGs excluding Rubio/Teague and Lonzo to a lesser extent given his unique stats.  

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3 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

The turn is great for punting because there's not much pressure as far as "will he fall?". Let's say you love Booker or Trae but your second round pick is at 16 and you think it's kind of a stretch to grab them there. But you don't know if you can wait for the third round, but you never know. 

All that uncertainty goes away with the turn, you know the guys you're looking at won't be there 22 picks later. So you just draft for your punts and f--- it. It's actually really freeing. 

 

I actually like picking late.  It's the ideal punt spot, because ideally you've flipped the draft board in your favor.  Instead of having the 12th and 13th best players, you now have two players in the top 5 or 10.  If you punt FT and points at the turn you have Drummo and Gobert who are ranked 1 and 2 in that punt.  Imagine that, you had the last pick but ended up with the two best players and the biggest advantage.  

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I actually like picking late.  It's the ideal punt spot, because ideally you've flipped the draft board in your favor.  Instead of having the 12th and 13th best players, you now have two players in the top 5 or 10.  If you punt FT and points at the turn you have Drummo and Gobert who are ranked 1 and 2 in that punt.  Imagine that, you had the last pick but ended up with the two best players and the biggest advantage.  

You’re actually referring solely to 12/13 though, not just picking late.  Picking 8th sucks. I assure you of that.  You could pick LeBron there and intend to punt FT/To, given that either Drummond or Stifle will fall to 17th as they have every other draft.  Then they don’t fall.  

 

Also, sure Drummond and Stifle might be 1st and 2nd in punt points/FT.  But if you’re merely punting FT AD is still better than either of them. If you adjust for different punts other guys come up first.  No one can replicate Harden’s raw counting stats in punt FG/To.  

 

Sure, I punted points/FT in our $200 buy in early draft.  But that was out of necessity.  I would have much preferred a top 5 pick. 

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45 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

You’re actually referring solely to 12/13 though, not just picking late.  Picking 8th sucks. I assure you of that.  You could pick LeBron there and intend to punt FT/To, given that either Drummond or Stifle will fall to 17th as they have every other draft.  Then they don’t fall.  

 

Also, sure Drummond and Stifle might be 1st and 2nd in punt points/FT.  But if you’re merely punting FT AD is still better than either of them. If you adjust for different punts other guys come up first.  No one can replicate Harden’s raw counting stats in punt FG/To.  

 

Sure, I punted points/FT in our $200 buy in early draft.  But that was out of necessity.  I would have much preferred a top 5 pick. 

 

Yes thank you for elaborating.  I could also do pick 11 on a punt but its not as good as the turn, but of course not as bad as 8.  No matter who you take there's more pathways than just a forced punt, even with Lebron, and if Drummo/Gobert's not there then you pivot and take someone else, and eat the loss.  If you're not comfortable with that then you could take a more well rounded player in the first round like Kawhi and potentially end up punting a counting category such as assists instead of a % cat.    Snake is always tricky to get the exact players you want tho.  Anything outside of top 5 I'll take the turn in H2H because I'll just do that exact FT/points punt and value wise I feel it gives me the best team despite not having Harden, AD, etc, and that I actually have a team thats more than capable of beating all of those stacked teams.  Of course I'd rather have Steph etc but outside the top 5 I think you gotta take some chances / punt builds.  

 

I think if I had a pick around 8 I would still go for a punt and just take Drummond.  Lebron or Gobert is there on the way back, great.  If not just move on and take someone else.  Not ideal but not devastating.  

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

Sure, I punted points/FT in our $200 buy in early draft.  But that was out of necessity.  I would have much preferred a top 5 pick. 

 

btw I don't think I'm in that league, but good luck with your punt!

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Just now, hipriest69 said:

 

btw I don't think I'm in that league, but good luck with your punt!

My bad.  I thought you were, otherwise I wouldn’t have brought it up!  Now I just look like a douche 😆 

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I have said it earlier also that the most easy punt is TO. Just you pick players with high counting stats, high usage and high minutes. Not all of them are necessarily turnover "specialists" but anyway you finish weak at this cat. Punt TO doesn't need any brainwork, that is so easy. But other question is, how successful is punt TO. My experience shows that usually you can make to the playoffs by this punt, but to win league is very difficult. If you want to win, then you have to do something else. But actually I count only three other punt builds reasonable: these are punt assists, points and FT%. Because I never punt assists, it means for me is possible only other two possibilities.

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On 10/2/2019 at 9:01 AM, BMart519 said:

Picking late in a snake draft really pushes you into a punt this year. I drafted in the 8 spot and decided to take Lebron to punt ft% and go against standard advice of not entering a draft with a preset punt strategy. In the end 4 teams punted FT% in a 12 man league, I didn't get any of the "main" FT bigs

The best advice I can offer is ignore the "don't plan to punt" mantra and focus your early picks on the difficult/key stats to make your punt work while picking up the leftovers later in the draft. 

 

 

4 other teams are all punting FT.. isn't this exactly why you should NOT enter the draft with a preset punting strategy? 

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20 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Yes thank you for elaborating.  I could also do pick 11 on a punt but its not as good as the turn, but of course not as bad as 8.  No matter who you take there's more pathways than just a forced punt, even with Lebron, and if Drummo/Gobert's not there then you pivot and take someone else, and eat the loss.  If you're not comfortable with that then you could take a more well rounded player in the first round like Kawhi and potentially end up punting a counting category such as assists instead of a % cat.    Snake is always tricky to get the exact players you want tho.  Anything outside of top 5 I'll take the turn in H2H because I'll just do that exact FT/points punt and value wise I feel it gives me the best team despite not having Harden, AD, etc, and that I actually have a team thats more than capable of beating all of those stacked teams.  Of course I'd rather have Steph etc but outside the top 5 I think you gotta take some chances / punt builds.  

 

I think if I had a pick around 8 I would still go for a punt and just take Drummond.  Lebron or Gobert is there on the way back, great.  If not just move on and take someone else.  Not ideal but not devastating.  

 

This conversation is good but just highlights how much better Auction is than Snake. :)

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4 hours ago, jay14bay said:

 

4 other teams are all punting FT.. isn't this exactly why you should NOT enter the draft with a preset punting strategy? 

While they are no means perfect and I only mention them to add to this discussion: based on the BBM projections I had the most negative z score in ft% without taking Adams, Drummond, gobert , Simmons, or whiteside. Ended up projected tied for 2nd overall with a winning record against all teams. So I feel like the draft still turned out well and there was only 1 or 2 picks where I felt competition in the build cost me a target - primarily Adams. There are often multiple teams that look to punt AST or FG%. So some competition is always likely even when you’re punting wins which is a common strat  I see. 😉

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