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Garrett Hampson 2020 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

NFC has him at 162. Round 14. 

 

Well, depends on how many teams are in your league.

That's what makes these conversations so difficult.  Leagues vary so widely, that unless you just use "pick #__", then it gets confusing speaking of which round you're taking someone. 

His NFBC ADP of 162 is 10th round (basically, if you want to ensure getting him) in a 16 team league.  Conversely, it's 16th round in a 10 teamer.

Then you've got auction drafts, which is a whole different thing...

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1 hour ago, countseth said:

His NFBC ADP of 162 is 10th round (basically, if you want to ensure getting him) in a 16 team league. 

 

If you want to ensure getting him, you'd better take him before the 10th round in a 16 team.  He's gone as high as 120 in nfbc, 162 is literally average, so half the time he's going before that if you assume a typical distribution.

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1 hour ago, kenag122002 said:

 

If you want to ensure getting him, you'd better take him before the 10th round in a 16 team.  He's gone as high as 120 in nfbc, 162 is literally average, so half the time he's going before that if you assume a typical distribution.


Truth

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I have to admit I don't get the love people are already showing for Hampson in drafts. I ended up fading him last year over playing time concerns and if his ADP remains around 162, I'll end up doing the same again this year (unless he gets anointed with a full-time gig). I like the player and I can see his upside (10-15 hrs, 25-30 sb's with a full time role) but I don't trust the playing time situation. I might be able to get behind drafting him in a daily league with a deep bench but in weekly leagues, he'll end up hurting teams if he's only playing 3-4 days a week. 

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18 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I have to admit I don't get the love people are already showing for Hampson in drafts. I ended up fading him last year over playing time concerns and if his ADP remains around 162, I'll end up doing the same again this year (unless he gets anointed with a full-time gig). I like the player and I can see his upside (10-15 hrs, 25-30 sb's with a full time role) but I don't trust the playing time situation. I might be able to get behind drafting him in a daily league with a deep bench but in weekly leagues, he'll end up hurting teams if he's only playing 3-4 days a week. 

You are not likely to hold on to a high% of the players you draft in that range. You are aiming more for upside vs floor.

Now, if you don't buy into his talent/bat. Fade away, but fading away someone you think will be good because of PT concerns with a 14th-15th round pick? Not sure I agree unless you are grabbing similar upside with someone else who has PT.

Edited by Slatykamora
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5 hours ago, meh2 said:

I have to admit I don't get the love people are already showing for Hampson in drafts. I ended up fading him last year over playing time concerns and if his ADP remains around 162, I'll end up doing the same again this year (unless he gets anointed with a full-time gig). I like the player and I can see his upside (10-15 hrs, 25-30 sb's with a full time role) but I don't trust the playing time situation. I might be able to get behind drafting him in a daily league with a deep bench but in weekly leagues, he'll end up hurting teams if he's only playing 3-4 days a week. 

 

If he wasn't on the Rockies his thread might not even exist.

Responding "Well, he is on the Rockies" isn't a good counterargument.  Coors doesn't turn below average hitters into great hitters.

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8 hours ago, meh2 said:

I have to admit I don't get the love people are already showing for Hampson in drafts. I ended up fading him last year over playing time concerns and if his ADP remains around 162, I'll end up doing the same again this year (unless he gets anointed with a full-time gig). I like the player and I can see his upside (10-15 hrs, 25-30 sb's with a full time role) but I don't trust the playing time situation. I might be able to get behind drafting him in a daily league with a deep bench but in weekly leagues, he'll end up hurting teams if he's only playing 3-4 days a week. 

 

By the way.  I was agreeing with this statement.

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11 hours ago, B&F said:

 

If he wasn't on the Rockies his thread might not even exist.

Responding "Well, he is on the Rockies" isn't a good counterargument.  Coors doesn't turn below average hitters into great hitters.

Good point. A minor leaguer who hit .300+ at every stop, and had 10 HR/36 SB in 2018 as a middle infielder would be on no one’s radar. We should all forget about him and his skill set. 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, meh2 said:

I have to admit I don't get the love people are already showing for Hampson in drafts. I ended up fading him last year over playing time concerns and if his ADP remains around 162, I'll end up doing the same again this year (unless he gets anointed with a full-time gig). I like the player and I can see his upside (10-15 hrs, 25-30 sb's with a full time role) but I don't trust the playing time situation. I might be able to get behind drafting him in a daily league with a deep bench but in weekly leagues, he'll end up hurting teams if he's only playing 3-4 days a week. 

 

Busting around pick 162 is not a big deal.  People overestimate how well they do in drafts, but again I challenge anyone to look at some redraft drafts they did last year around pick 150 or later. Obviously better fantasy players make better picks, but everyone busts on a ton of picks.  The argument with Hampson is that if he starts every day, even if it takes a month he's going to be a + average and ++ SB guy when steals are very scarce. That's a potential difference maker.

 

I do agree with you that he's easier to stomach in daily leagues, just like many intriguing players, but if he gets full time AB he could be a fantasy monster.

 

Lets take a look at picks around 162 from last year courtesy of fantasypros ADP (easiest to find from a previous year)

 

Look at these names. Hampson certainly could bust again for pick 162, but I think you're overestimating the importance of "not busting" on each pick. You're going to bust on many picks in redraft, everyone is. You need to make some rational solid picks but you also need to take chances.  We'll see how the Hampson storyline develops in spring training,  Based on him being a hot fantasy prospect the year before and how he finished in 2019, he's pretty interesting for next year.

 

 

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Source: https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

Edited by brockpapersizer
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8 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Busting around pick 162 is not a big deal.  People overestimate how well they do in drafts, but again I challenge anyone to look at some redraft drafts they did last year around pick 150 or later. Obviously better fantasy players make better picks, but everyone busts on a ton of picks.  The argument with Hampson is that if he starts every day, even if it takes a month he's going to be a + average and ++ SB guy when steals are very scarce. That's a potential difference maker.

 

I'd argue this happens earlier than pick 150, its really across the entire draft, even including the early rounds. Its why betting on "upside" is always underrated. People think that just because players have been consistent that they have high floors, but the floor can drop for anyone, and anyone can suffer a major injury. Better off betting on the higher upside guys who will end up most likely busting at the same rate as many others with lower upside.

Repeating the @brockpapersizer exercise, lets look at the top 36 picks from FantasyPros ADP:

Player    ADP
Mike Trout (LAA - CF,DH)     1.00
Mookie Betts (BOS - CF,RF)     2.00
Jose Ramirez (CLE - 2B,3B)     3.20
Max Scherzer (WSH - SP)     4.80
J.D. Martinez (BOS - LF,RF,DH)     4.80
Nolan Arenado (COL - 3B)     5.80
Christian Yelich (MIL - LF,CF,RF)     7.80
Trea Turner (WSH - SS)     8.40
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL - LF,CF)     9.60
Jacob deGrom (NYM - SP)     10.40
Chris Sale (BOS - SP)     12.40
Francisco Lindor (CLE - SS)     12.60
Alex Bregman (HOU - 3B,SS)     13.00
Jose Altuve (HOU - 2B)     13.20
Aaron Judge (NYY - RF,DH)     15.20
Bryce Harper (PHI - CF,RF)     16.40
Manny Machado (SD - 3B,SS)     18.00
Javier Baez (CHC - 2B,3B,SS)     18.00
Paul Goldschmidt (STL - 1B)     20.20
Trevor Story (COL - SS)     20.20
Justin Verlander (HOU - SP)     21.20
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY - LF,RF,DH)     22.00
Freddie Freeman (ATL - 1B)     22.40
Corey Kluber (TEX - SP)     22.80
Aaron Nola (PHI - SP)     24.60

Charlie Blackmon (COL - CF)     25.80
Gerrit Cole (NYY - SP)     26.80
Blake Snell (TB - SP)     27.80
Andrew Benintendi (BOS - LF,CF)     30.20
Juan Soto (WSH - LF)     31.00
Trevor Bauer (CIN - SP)     31.00
Whit Merrifield (KC - 1B,2B,CF,RF,DH)     31.20
Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B,RF)     31.40
Anthony Rizzo (CHC - 1B)     31.60
Noah Syndergaard (NYM - SP)     34.80
Carlos Carrasco (CLE - SP)     35.40

 

I bolded the players I think were busts, which is 12/36, which is a third of the picks. There are many others you can argue under performed. My point is, regardless of where you are drafting, there is a systematic edge going for upside rather than floor. It is human nature to discount the possibilities of negative outcomes so inherently the players that have the downside built into their price are better values versus the rest of the players who have a steady floor built into their prices.

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Confuscious say "Last years busts are this years bargains"

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

I bolded the players I think were busts, which is 12/36, which is a third of the picks. There are many others you can argue under performed. My point is, regardless of where you are drafting, there is a systematic edge going for upside rather than floor. It is human nature to discount the possibilities of negative outcomes so inherently the players that have the downside built into their price are better values versus the rest of the players who have a steady floor built into their prices.

 

Minor critique - I'd say JDM under-performed rather than busted.  He was drafted at around mid first round and performed at late 2nd round / early 3rd round value.  That's more under-performing than busting IMO.  JDM's floor was one of the reason's he was drafted so high last year, and I think he showed that even when not performing at elite levels he still gave solid production.  Not something you'd love if you drafted him, but much better than a true bust like Stanton.

Edited by kenag122002
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I think we'll see a similar ADP boost if he puts up a nice ST. Hilliard is hardly a blocker in CF and we're all aware of Dahl's injury history. I'm not sure what the plan is for Desmond. He had 44 appearances in LF and 74 in CF. Either way, Hampson's September + existing upside will once again be intriguing for this season.

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Agree with Sidearmer:

23 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

My point is, regardless of where you are drafting, there is a systematic edge going for upside rather than floor. It is human nature to discount the possibilities of negative outcomes so inherently the players that have the downside built into their price are better values versus the rest of the players who have a steady floor built into their prices.

 

---hopefully the trend holds and the majority of fantasy players will not draft/auction with upside in mind.  Many do in regards to rookies and young players with little MLB experience (which makes up a large percentage of those with upside)...but there are others who just haven't broken out yet (but have at least a couple years in the league) or are bounce back candidates (people sour on a player quickly in re-draft when the previous year shows poor results -- like Kingery going into 2019).

I'm not knocking steady producers but I will continue to draft upside.  Occasionally this means rostering a pitcher who gets ripped or a batter who gets benched or sent down.  It's worth it.  It has added benefit (at least sometimes) of allowing you to grab an interesting free agent if your original pick busts.

It's a bit like drafting talent over role consideration - risky, but fun.  The trend lately in MLB and the NFL seems to be for most teams to let their best players play as soon as possible.

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10 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

Minor critique - I'd say JDM under-performed rather than busted.  He was drafted at around mid first round and performed at late 2nd round / early 3rd round value.  That's more under-performing than busting IMO.  JDM's floor was one of the reason's he was drafted so high last year, and I think he showed that even when not performing at elite levels he still gave solid production.  Not something you'd love if you drafted him, but much better than a true bust like Stanton.

I'll take JD's so-called under performance last season of 36 homers, 103 RBIs, .304 batting average and 98 runs any day.  Especially since he should not have been drafted mid first round given his lack of speed.  That is on the stupid drafter, not JD.  No bust or under-performance from the player.  Just straight out consistency as usual.

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Posted (edited)

I think too much to determine for this team to figure out what Hampson is going to be. Honestly, I think the Rockies are close to being a bottom feeder. They've got pricey aging players (Murphy, Desmond, maybe even C-Nasty), only two remotely decent starting pitchers, a bullpen that lacks depth and a farm system with zero in the way of immediate hope (unless you count Rogers). They also have nothing at catcher and questions on the OF corners (though Dahl is a nice player when healthy). 

The Rockies positively stink. They have some nice young infielders (Story, Arenado, Mcmahon, Hampson and Rogers), but zilch elsewhere. NO WONDER they are shopping Arenado. They know the clock is ticking. The pitching staff, even with Gray and Marquez, is easily the worst in the division. I wouldn't give up Nolan for nothing, but if you can get a couple young SPs and a cornerstone outfielder (think Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, Drew Waters/Christian Pache) you gotta think about doing it. 

Edited by kwolf68
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I think the corner OFs are clearly Dahl (when healthy) and Blackmon. To me the question mark is CF, which is Hampson's best shot at a starting gig since the infield is so crowded. Desmond could be the party pooper, but I don't view Hilliard as much of a threat. I do agree that this team is on the verge of major collapse. The entire pitching staff, starting and relieving, is just going to get lit up regularly.

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Just now, TribeFoo said:

I think the corner OFs are clearly Dahl (when healthy) and Blackmon. To me the question mark is CF, which is Hampson's best shot at a starting gig since the infield is so crowded. Desmond could be the party pooper, but I don't view Hilliard as much of a threat. I do agree that this team is on the verge of major collapse. The entire pitching staff, starting and relieving, is just going to get lit up regularly.

 

I suppose you could do worse than Dahl and Blackmon on the corners. But this team otherwise has downgrade written all over it. Not sure what Hampson's numbers were in CF, but he certainly has the speed. 

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I'll avoid drafting him just for the sole purpose of not having to open his thread and see the same 3 people complaining about Rockies management of players ALL. YEAR. LONG.

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15 hours ago, StevieStats said:

I'll avoid drafting him just for the sole purpose of not having to open his thread and see the same 3 people complaining about Rockies management of players ALL. YEAR. LONG.

 

Yeah, I have him as my 2B in my dynasty league, and I feel uneasy about relying on him to get full time ABs with the Rockies. And there isn't much interest in him for trades.  I get the sense that his redraft ADP is too high right now fueled, by early fantasy drafters being influenced by his September and reaching for upside at that point in the draft.  Plus you have Brendan Rodgers waiting in the wings. Hampson could get the CF job, but I'd like to see some sustained regular PT before I really feel comfortable.

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I don't know if this has been brought up but he changed from a leg kick to a toe tap which is what launched his late season success... if he gets PT look out. This breakdown is great!

 

Must read.

 

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On 1/1/2020 at 8:06 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

I stopped counting the number of players on that list being drafted after Hampson I would take ahead of him.

If he is sitting on the board after pick 300, absolutely I am taking a flyer on him.  No way before that.

Chris Archer is #301 on the list.  Are we really taking him ahead of Archer?

 

 

 

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Most of NFBC drafts so far have been draft champions which are 5x5 no transaction With an overall prize.  I’ve done a few of these and speed is pushed up because if you miss out on it, you’re SOL.  I think in 12 teamer redrafts with transactions he’ll go a little later than where he’s going in nfbc.  He certainly seems roadblocked though and the Rockies best prospect is behind his heels.  May be a guy who’s tough to hold onto early but will eventually get playing time as the season goes on.  It does help to get some of Bud Blacks pet cats out of Colorado.  

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