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Garrett Hampson 2020 Outlook

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not really having a good spring, .226 AVG, .286 OBP, likely to start the season in the minors?

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7 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

not really having a good spring, .226 AVG, .286 OBP, likely to start the season in the minors?

Was given a chance, no one to blame but his self.

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Now that the enthusiasm of his September ‘19 performance has worn off I might be looking to try to grab him dirt cheap, knowing I’ll have to bench him to start the season and hope he forces his way into the lineup.  
 

I still like the skill set, positional versatility, and lack of premium talent standing in his way.  Easy enough to cut him if it doesn’t work out

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3 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

not really having a good spring, .226 AVG, .286 OBP, likely to start the season in the minors?

 

Small sample. He was incredible last spring and didn't earn anything.

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He's just not a good enough hitter to force his way past the other options.  Even with Desmond on the bench and Rodgers not ready for opening day, he's at best the weak side of a 2B platoon.  When Rodgers comes up he's forced into the OF to fight for scraps along with Desmond, Dahl, Tapia, Hilliard.  That's 5 guys for 2 spots.  Can't see him staying with the big club unless he shows skills he's never really shown for any length of time at the major league level.

Even when he was winning leagues for fantasy owners in September, his wRC+ was a merely passable 119, with his 9 SBs accounting for a vast majority of his value. Anyone thinking that's the norm should look at these Statcast comps and weep:

image.thumb.png.3c8f2497485f633e86eaa3a1258b7b05.png

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

He's just not a good enough hitter to force his way past the other options.  Even with Desmond on the bench and Rodgers not ready for opening day, he's at best the weak side of a 2B platoon.  When Rodgers comes up he's forced into the OF to fight for scraps along with Desmond, Dahl, Tapia, Hilliard.  That's 5 guys for 2 spots.  Can't see him staying with the big club unless he shows skills he's never really shown for any length of time at the major league level.

Even when he was winning leagues for fantasy owners in September, his wRC+ was a merely passable 119, with his 9 SBs accounting for a vast majority of his value. Anyone thinking that's the norm should look at these Statcast comps and weep:

image.thumb.png.3c8f2497485f633e86eaa3a1258b7b05.png

ouch

 

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

He's just not a good enough hitter to force his way past the other options.  Even with Desmond on the bench and Rodgers not ready for opening day, he's at best the weak side of a 2B platoon.  When Rodgers comes up he's forced into the OF to fight for scraps along with Desmond, Dahl, Tapia, Hilliard.  That's 5 guys for 2 spots.  Can't see him staying with the big club unless he shows skills he's never really shown for any length of time at the major league level.

Even when he was winning leagues for fantasy owners in September, his wRC+ was a merely passable 119, with his 9 SBs accounting for a vast majority of his value. Anyone thinking that's the norm should look at these Statcast comps and weep:

image.thumb.png.3c8f2497485f633e86eaa3a1258b7b05.png

 

I take your point, but this sort of hitting profile (leaning on batting average and stolen bases to provide value) doesn't really present itself in terms of wRC+. I mean look at Starling Marte, for example. Marte is a perennial early round pick and his wRC+ is always right around 120 (which is more or less Hampson's September).

I take your point about there being a roster crunch, but finding playing time might not be as difficult as you might think. He has positional versatility and a solid glove working in his favor. And considering Ian Desmond has been below replacement level for 3 years running and Dahl has yet to really put together a healthy season in his 8 years of professional baseball, I think there will be chances for him to work his way in to the lineup.

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40 minutes ago, SnellMyFinger said:

I take your point, but this sort of hitting profile (leaning on batting average and stolen bases to provide value) doesn't really present itself in terms of wRC+

 

Except he's never shown an ability to hit for a plus AVG at the major league level, with a .251 career rate despite having his spots picked for him in terms of platoon advantage (basically a 2:1 split in favor of RHP despite the ratio of RHP to LHP being much higher than 2:1).  He showed a plus hit tool in his scouting pedigree and had some nice stops in the minors, but some guys have trouble making the jump.  Maybe this is the year he figures it out, but the draft cost is way too high for a "maybe" with both performance-related and playing time concerns.

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Right, but my optimism comes from the fact that he's hit for a high average at every level, and his hot September coincided with a mechanical change. He ditched a leg kick in favor of a toe tap and it showed immediate results. I agree that he's not coming at the discount that we'd like, but I'm optimistic about both him performing and his playing time. 

I also might be overly optimistic due to the fact that I've been following him since his amateur days.

 

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18 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Except he's never shown an ability to hit for a plus AVG at the major league level, with a .251 career rate despite having his spots picked for him in terms of platoon advantage (basically a 2:1 split in favor of RHP despite the ratio of RHP to LHP being much higher than 2:1).

 

I'd hold off on "career" numbers for essentially a rookie with under. 400 career PAs.  He made a change in his approach in the 2nd half of the season and got comfortable when finally playing every day.  I think looking at platoons at Hampson in a small sample won't be helpful. In fairness, if he's a part time player, that seems like it won't be helpful either.  He's a guy who likely needs every day PAs to be good or can be disregarded otherwise,  I can sign up for that take. Right now the path isn't there, but if it does come, I think he'll be good.

 

 

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I don't dispute that there are reasons for optimism, and obviously players his age can take huge leaps skill-wise as they learn the game and make adjustments.  The problem is that the same small sample that you're saying limits the bad things we can say about him also limits the good things we can say about him, leaving us with a guy with a good but not great (FV50) prospect pedigree, a good but not great minor league record, and very limited success at the MLB level.  Add the playing time concerns and, at least in standard mixed leagues, he looks like the kind of guy you want to scoop off the wire when someone else gets tired of waiting rather than a guy you want to invest a top 200-ish pick on.

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9 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I don't dispute that there are reasons for optimism, and obviously players his age can take huge leaps skill-wise as they learn the game and make adjustments.  The problem is that the same small sample that you're saying limits the bad things we can say about him also limits the good things we can say about him, leaving us with a guy with a good but not great (FV50) prospect pedigree, a good but not great minor league record, and very limited success at the MLB level.  Add the playing time concerns and, at least in standard mixed leagues, he looks like the kind of guy you want to scoop off the wire when someone else gets tired of waiting rather than a guy you want to invest a top 200-ish pick on.

 

I don't think he's a must grab within 200, but there's certainly value there. He might be a real life FV50 prospect, but with steals/average ticking up, thats more like a fantasy FV60 if not more. 

And again, 150-200 isn't a huge risk at that point. If you like someone more, by all means grab them, but chances are youre going to bust on multiple picks in that range regardless. Just statistically speaking.

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32 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Hampson may be helped some by Desmond's decision but the big winner is Sam Hillard.

 

Probably helps both, but they just signed Matt Kemp. Not that Kemp is good, but neither was Desmond.

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12 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Probably helps both, but they just signed Matt Kemp. Not that Kemp is good, but neither was Desmond.

It's unreal that the organization simply cannot stop signing aging, declining veterans when there are viable alternatives to try first. They have Blackmon, Dahl, Hilliard, Hampson, McMahon, Murphy, Tapia and Rodgers that represent 8 viable options to fill 6 slots (LF, CF, RF, 2B, 1B, DH) on any given day. Obviously there was zero competition for Kemp's services or he wouldn't have signed a minor league deal - why not simply give the other viable options a chance and then possibly take a look at Kemp down the road if the options aren't working? Not only does it provide yet another lineup clogging headache, but it continues to stunt the the growth of players that need as much time on the field as they can get in Hampson, Hilliard and Rodgers - particularly when they've already announced no minor league season this year.

Obviously this post isn't directed at you in any way brock since you have way more common sense that that front office seemingly ever will.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dark One said:

It's unreal that the organization simply cannot stop signing aging, declining veterans ...

This sums up the stupidity of the Rockies managements in a nutshell.  No organization is so attached to aging vets past their prime than those people.  No organization shoots itself in the foot more than them.  No, not even Seattle who actually rescued a very promising Tom Murphy from Colorado who didn't want to play him over has been catchers.  When Seattle looks smart compared to your organization there is something incredibly wrong with you.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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12 hours ago, Dark One said:

It's unreal that the organization simply cannot stop signing aging, declining veterans when there are viable alternatives to try first. They have Blackmon, Dahl, Hilliard, Hampson, McMahon, Murphy, Tapia and Rodgers that represent 8 viable options to fill 6 slots (LF, CF, RF, 2B, 1B, DH) on any given day. Obviously there was zero competition for Kemp's services or he wouldn't have signed a minor league deal - why not simply give the other viable options a chance and then possibly take a look at Kemp down the road if the options aren't working? Not only does it provide yet another lineup clogging headache, but it continues to stunt the the growth of players that need as much time on the field as they can get in Hampson, Hilliard and Rodgers - particularly when they've already announced no minor league season this year.

Obviously this post isn't directed at you in any way brock since you have way more common sense that that front office seemingly ever will.


Like Desmond , Kemp is terrible now, but unlike Desmond he doesn’t have a contract attached to him. 
 

I think Kemp is likely a non factor , but in a short season anything is possible. Desmond sitting the season is pretty huge for anyone owning all the other Rockies.

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“Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports that Garrett Hampson likely will begin the season in a reserve role and could operate as a utility player.”

 

is this just conjecture?

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3 minutes ago, enyouartist said:

“Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports that Garrett Hampson likely will begin the season in a reserve role and could operate as a utility player.”

 

is this just conjecture?

Sadly its prob not. I could see them starting Owings at 2B. Its the Rockies way.

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8 hours ago, enyouartist said:

“Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports that Garrett Hampson likely will begin the season in a reserve role and could operate as a utility player.”

 

is this just conjecture?

After the news of Ian Desmond opting out of the season, I was optimistic about Hampson and Hilliard as being late-round sleepers.  That optimism was quickly dashed when the Rockies signed Matt Kemp.  Until there are injuries, I don't see either Hampson or Hilliard a chance to start more than two games a week.  David Dahl is probably the most injury-prone player in baseball so there is some hope in that regard, but in only a 60 game season, it's tough rostering guys who aren't going to be playing much initially.

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9 hours ago, enyouartist said:

“Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports that Garrett Hampson likely will begin the season in a reserve role and could operate as a utility player.”

 

is this just conjecture?

 

So if Hampson and Rodgers are going to be utility players then who is going to play? McMahon at 2B?  Murphy at 1B? Kemp at DH? Tapia as a starting OF?

Someone has to play for the Rockies and now with the DH, it seems hard for me to believe that Hampson and Rodgers will be riding the pine.

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10 hours ago, Coach George said:

 

So if Hampson and Rodgers are going to be utility players then who is going to play? McMahon at 2B?  Murphy at 1B? Kemp at DH? Tapia as a starting OF?

Someone has to play for the Rockies and now with the DH, it seems hard for me to believe that Hampson and Rodgers will be riding the pine.

 

When everyone is healthy, Rockies have 10 players (Blackmon, Dahl, Tapia, Kemp, Murphy, McMahon, Hilliard, Rodgers, Hampson and Owings) competing for time at 6 spots (3 OF, 1B, 2B, DH).  Blackmon definitely and Dahl, Murphy, and McMahon probably will play regularly, with maybe 1 day of rest a week.  That leaves 2 spots open for the 6 other players to share time at. 

Hampson definitely has fantasy upside because of his speed and because of the Coors factor, but it looks like a big logjam right now.  The good news is David Dahl is probably the most injury-prone player in the majors, but with only a 60 game season, it might hard to wait around on Hampson if he's getting only 2 starts a week to begin the season.

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